MLB · Thu, Sep 17 · 12:40 PM

Dodgers at Reds

O/U 10.5 · RL Dodgers -1.5 · Great American Ball Park

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Dodgers· +144

Getaway day at Great American Ball Park, 89 degrees with the wind blowing out to left, and the Dodgers are trying to close out this four-game set with a bullpen game after Blake Snell's groin sent him to the showers after one inning last night. Cincinnati hands the ball to Brady Singer looking to split the series. What carries this pick is the shape of the Dodgers' pitching plan. Justin Wrobleski's 3.78 ERA is an All-Star first half wearing a second-half body. Since July 28 he has given up 13 home runs in 26.2 innings, he missed time with left forearm inflammation, and his three outings since returning ran 36, 73 and 25 pitches. He is a fly-ball lefty with a home run problem walking into a homer park with the wind out, and once he is done the ball goes to a Triple-A recall and then a bullpen that used six relievers to cover seven innings yesterday. On top of that, the posted lineup has no Mookie Betts and no Will Smith on a day game after a night game. The Dodgers have scored 4, 4 and 2 runs in this series and went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position last night. The team on the field today is a lot weaker than the brand the market is pricing at -172. The best argument against me is real and I am not dodging it. Singer has been awful: 14 earned runs and 11 walks over nine innings in his last two starts, and lefties have hit him for an .883 OPS with 22 homers this season while the Dodgers stack seven left-handed bats against him. Roberts also has Tanner Scott, Brock Stewart and Evan Phillips, none of whom pitched yesterday, to protect a lead. If Singer walks the yard in the first two innings this is over early. I take the Reds anyway because the price is wrong for the matchup, not because Singer is good. Elly De La Cruz hits left-handers at .346 with a 1.051 OPS and just homered in two of three games, Sal Stewart and Juan Brito went a combined 6-for-7 yesterday, and this crowd just watched the Reds take one from this team. At +144 I am being paid as if the full Dodgers showed up today. They did not.

What carries this pick is the shape of the Dodgers' pitching plan. Justin Wrobleski's 3.78 ERA is an All-Star first half wearing a second-half body. Since July 28 he has given up 13 home runs in 26.2 innings, he missed time with left forearm inflammation, and his three outings since returning ran 36, 73 and 25 pitches. He is a fly-ball lefty with a home run problem walking into a homer park with the wind out, and once he is done the ball goes to a Triple-A recall and then a bullpen that used six relievers to cover seven innings yesterday. On top of that, the posted lineup has no Mookie Betts and no Will Smith on a day game after a night game. The Dodgers have scored 4, 4 and 2 runs in this series and went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position last night. The team on the field today is a lot weaker than the brand the market is pricing at -172.

The best argument against me is real and I am not dodging it. Singer has been awful: 14 earned runs and 11 walks over nine innings in his last two starts, and lefties have hit him for an .883 OPS with 22 homers this season while the Dodgers stack seven left-handed bats against him. Roberts also has Tanner Scott, Brock Stewart and Evan Phillips, none of whom pitched yesterday, to protect a lead. If Singer walks the yard in the first two innings this is over early. I take the Reds anyway because the price is wrong for the matchup, not because Singer is good. Elly De La Cruz hits left-handers at .346 with a 1.051 OPS and just homered in two of three games, Sal Stewart and Juan Brito went a combined 6-for-7 yesterday, and this crowd just watched the Reds take one from this team. At +144 I am being paid as if the full Dodgers showed up today. They did not.

The pick & result

Published pick: Reds ML +144
Published odds: +144
Result: Lost
Final score: 8-2

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETRIVERS · 11 moves

Market	Opened Sep 17 12:09 AM	Close Sep 17 12:30 PM	Move
SPREAD	Dodgers -1.5 (-103)	Dodgers -1.5 (-107)	Price
TOTAL	9.5 (-115)	10 (-122)	+½
MONEYLINE	Dodgers -162	Dodgers -167	−5

Every move, in order ›

When	Spread	Total	Moneyline
OPENSep 17 12:09 AM	Dodgers -1.5 (-103)	9.5 (-115)	Dodgers -162 · Reds +135
Sep 17 6:00 AM	Dodgers -1.5 (-114)	10 (-118)	Dodgers -182 · Reds +150
Sep 17 7:15 AM	Dodgers -1.5 (-114)	10 (-121)	Dodgers -182 · Reds +150
Sep 17 8:00 AM	Dodgers -1.5 (-109)	9.5 (-112)	Dodgers -177 · Reds +145
Sep 17 9:00 AM	Dodgers -1.5 (-110)	9.5 (-115)	Dodgers -177 · Reds +145
Sep 17 10:01 AM	Dodgers -1.5 (-112)	9.5 (-109)	Dodgers -180 · Reds +148
Sep 17 10:18 AM	Dodgers -1.5 (-110)	10 (-113)	Dodgers -177 · Reds +145
Sep 17 10:32 AM	Dodgers -1.5 (-106)	9.5 (-118)	Dodgers -175 · Reds +143
Sep 17 10:48 AM	Dodgers -1.5 (-110)	10 (-118)	Dodgers -175 · Reds +143
Sep 17 11:00 AM	Dodgers -1.5 (-104)	10 (-114)	Dodgers -162 · Reds +135
Sep 17 12:12 PM	Dodgers -1.5 (+100)	10 (-118)	Dodgers -155 · Reds +128
CLOSESep 17 12:30 PM	Dodgers -1.5 (-107)	10 (-122)	Dodgers -167 · Reds +138

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Brady Singer: 12.15 ERA over his last 3 starts
12.15
Brady Singer has a 12.15 ERA over his last 3 starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 22 hits in 13.1 innings. That is 6.77 above his 5.38 season ERA entering LAD at CIN.
Justin Wrobleski: 8.03 ERA over his last 3 starts
8.03
Justin Wrobleski has an 8.03 ERA over his last 3 starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 18 hits in 12.1 innings. That is 4.25 above his 3.78 season ERA entering LAD at CIN.

PLATOON EDGE

Dane Myers (bats R) hits 1st against Justin Wrobleski (LHP)
.853
Dane Myers owns a .853 OPS in 115 AB versus left-handers, compared with .640 in 155 AB the other way. He bats 1st against Dodgers left-hander Justin Wrobleski.
Matt McLain (bats R) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
.791
Matt McLain has a .791 OPS in 96 AB versus left-handers, compared with .565 in 307 AB the other way. He bats 6th against Dodgers left-hander Justin Wrobleski.

HEAT CHECK

Elly De La Cruz: 1.364 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.364
Elly De La Cruz has a 1.364 OPS over the last 15 days in 51 AB. That is 0.484 above his .880 season OPS.
Teoscar Hernandez: 1.211 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.211
Teoscar Hernandez has a 1.211 OPS over the last 15 days in 45 AB. That is 0.445 above his .766 season OPS.

COOLING OFF

Sal Stewart: .580 OPS in Last 15 Days
.580
Sal Stewart has a .580 OPS over the last 15 days in 49 AB. That is 0.225 below his .805 season OPS.

BALLPARK

Brady Singer owns a 4.50 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 6.37 everywhere else
4.50
Brady Singer has a 4.50 ERA in 15 games and 80.0 IP at Great American Ball Park, versus 6.37 in 70.2 IP everywhere else; hitters bat .260 against him here. The split does not show whether the venue or pitcher drives the difference.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Dodgers are 5-1 vs Reds this season
5-1
Los Angeles is 5-1 against Cincinnati across six meetings this season, although Cincinnati won the last one 6-2. No pitcher, venue or game-by-game context shows what carries into tonight at Cincinnati.

TEAM RECORD

Reds 2-6 in Brady Singer's last 8 starts
2-6
Cincinnati is 2-6 in Brady Singer’s last eight starts this season. He starts tonight at home against the Dodgers.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored September 17, 2026 at 10:18 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
KE'BRYAN HAYESH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
MLBCincinnati Reds· -168
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0
I’m laying -168 on Ke’Bryan Hayes under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs. He has stayed under this number in 13 of his last 15 games, is hitless in his last 10 at-bats and owns a .438 OPS across 212 at-bats this season. Batting eighth further limits both his plate appearances and the quality of his run-producing opportunities. The counterargument is Wrobleski’s recent form. He has an 8.03 ERA across his last three starts, and Hayes has been somewhat better against lefties than righties. Cincinnati may also see several innings from a Dodgers staff that was forced to cover seven innings Wednesday. Still, Hayes needs either multiple contributions or one hit tied to a run or RBI, and his current production does not justify that threshold.
Ke'Bryan Hayes
H+R+RBI under 1.5
-168 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0
Cincinnati Reds
I’m laying -168 on Ke’Bryan Hayes under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs. He has stayed under this number in 13 of his last 15 games, is hitless in his last 10 at-bats and owns a .438 OPS across 212 at-bats this season. Batting eighth further limits both his plate appearances and the quality of his run-producing opportunities.
The counterargument is Wrobleski’s recent form. He has an 8.03 ERA across his last three starts, and Hayes has been somewhat better against lefties than righties. Cincinnati may also see several innings from a Dodgers staff that was forced to cover seven innings Wednesday. Still, Hayes needs either multiple contributions or one hit tied to a run or RBI, and his current production does not justify that threshold.
GARY'S PICK
JUSTIN WROBLESKIPITCHER WALKS OVER 0.5
MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -153
LOST · ACTUAL 0
I’m taking over 0.5 walks at -153. Wrobleski has issued at least one walk in six of his last eight starts and averages 1.3 per start this season. Cincinnati’s projected lineup has drawn a walk in roughly 10% of its plate appearances, and Wrobleski must navigate Elly De La Cruz and several right-handed bats that have performed well against lefties. The strongest concern is his role. He is expected to work only the opening portion of a planned Wrobleski-Landon Knack arrangement, and his outs line is just 11.5. That shortened window gives him fewer chances to issue the one walk I need, while he has also gone without one in two of those last eight starts.
Justin Wrobleski
Pitcher Walks over 0.5
-153 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Los Angeles Dodgers
I’m taking over 0.5 walks at -153. Wrobleski has issued at least one walk in six of his last eight starts and averages 1.3 per start this season. Cincinnati’s projected lineup has drawn a walk in roughly 10% of its plate appearances, and Wrobleski must navigate Elly De La Cruz and several right-handed bats that have performed well against lefties.
The strongest concern is his role. He is expected to work only the opening portion of a planned Wrobleski-Landon Knack arrangement, and his outs line is just 11.5. That shortened window gives him fewer chances to issue the one walk I need, while he has also gone without one in two of those last eight starts.

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