Cardinals at Dodgers
O/U 7.5 · RL Dodgers -1.5 · Dodger Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -130
- Published odds
- -130
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 2-3
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANDUEL · 10 moves| Market | Opened Sep 3 9:28 AM | Close Sep 3 6:43 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Dodgers -1.5 (-128) | Dodgers -1.5 (-134) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Dodgers -300 | Dodgers -300 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 3 9:28 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (-128) | — | Dodgers -300 · Cardinals +245 |
| Sep 3 10:28 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (-132) | — | Dodgers -300 · Cardinals +245 |
| Sep 3 11:00 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (-128) | — | Dodgers -300 · Cardinals +245 |
| Sep 3 11:51 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (-130) | — | Dodgers -300 · Cardinals +245 |
| Sep 3 1:42 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (-137) | — | Dodgers -310 · Cardinals +250 |
| Sep 3 4:07 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (-138) | — | Dodgers -310 · Cardinals +250 |
| Sep 3 4:48 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (-137) | — | Dodgers -310 · Cardinals +250 |
| Sep 3 6:06 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (-132) | — | Dodgers -295 · Cardinals +240 |
| Sep 3 6:22 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (-130) | — | Dodgers -290 · Cardinals +235 |
| Sep 3 6:26 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (-130) | — | Dodgers -300 · Cardinals +245 |
| CLOSESep 3 6:43 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (-134) | — | Dodgers -300 · Cardinals +245 |
The read
I’m laying the run and a half because tonight’s matchup is materially different from the first two games. Tarik Skubal has held right-handed hitters to a .189 average and .549 OPS across 350 at-bats, and St. Louis is starting seven right-handed hitters, one left-handed hitter and one switch-hitter. Skubal also enters off three starts covering 19.0 innings with five earned runs, 25 strikeouts and three walks.
Quinn Mathews has made only four MLB starts and has not completed six innings. He owns a 6.43 road ERA over 14.0 innings, while right-handed hitters have batted .297 with a .756 OPS against him. Los Angeles counters with six right-handed hitters and one switch-hitter, and its current nine are batting .340 in this series and .290 over the last seven days.
The bullpen bridge is the separator. St. Louis played an eight-pitcher game Wednesday, Graceffo threw 48 pitches, and Fernandez, Gastelum and Bruihl all worked for a second consecutive day. That matters behind a starter whose four outings have lasted between 4.0 and 5.2 innings. Los Angeles used only three relievers Wednesday, none worked both of the last two days, and its current bullpen owns a 3.37 season ERA compared with St. Louis’ 3.75.
Ohtani and Muncy sitting—and the expensive -130 price—keep me from making this a high-confidence play. But Skubal’s specific matchup against this lineup, Mathews’ road uncertainty and the Cardinals’ relief workload give Los Angeles enough paths to create the required separation.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
COOLING OFF
Alec Burleson: .502 OPS in Last 15 Days
.502Burleson's .502 OPS over the last 15 days suggests his swing is not producing its usual damage. His season baseline offers rebound potential, but there is no obvious matchup edge forcing me to call it tonight.
BULLPEN
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
16.3 IPThe Cardinals have covered 16.3 relief innings in three games, leaving several important arms unavailable or limited. If the starter cannot provide length, Los Angeles gets a real chance to attack the soft part of this bullpen.
FIRST INNING
STL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10St. Louis has scored in the first inning just once in its last 10 games, and I expect Skubal to extend that quiet stretch. The home run is the Cardinals’ clearest early escape hatch; otherwise, another empty top half is the likelier outcome.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Cardinals are 4-1 vs Dodgers this season
4-1St. Louis is 4-1 against Los Angeles this season, but that history does not automatically travel with the matchup to Dodger Stadium. I respect the Cardinals' success without treating it as tonight's deciding edge.
REGRESSION
Quinn Mathews: 5.03 ERA vs 3.32 xERA
3.32Mathews's 5.03 ERA sits well above his 3.32 expected mark, and his tiny barrel rate points toward better results ahead. The rebound case is real, but facing Los Angeles while still allowing traffic makes this a demanding test.
Will Smith: .246 AVG vs .275 xBA
.275Smith’s .246 average undersells the quality of his contact, with a .275 xBA pointing toward better results ahead. I’m buying the rebound against St. Louis and favoring his hitting overs.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Quinn Mathews
3.32 xERAQuinn Mathews has real strikeout appeal at 9.2 K/9, and his 3.32 xERA says there is more here than the 5.03 ERA shows. Still, that 1.58 WHIP makes the Dodgers matchup a high-risk swing. Add him only if you are chasing strikeouts in a deep league and can absorb serious ratio risk.
CUT LIST
Jose Fermin
0.661 OPSThe .661 OPS and .241 average make the cut case easy: Fermin hasn't produced enough over the season. But he's in tonight's lineup and batting first, so I'm giving him one more chance to turn that opportunity into value. HOLD
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 3, 2026 at 11:09 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, betmgm, fanduel, fanatics, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKNATHAN CHURCHH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
Church has cleared this number in 11 of his last 15 games and is 3-for-8 through the first two games of this series. One hit settles the over, but the combined market also gives me paths through a run or RBI.
The left-on-left matchup does not scare me here. Left-handed hitters own a .278 average and .758 OPS against Skubal, noticeably better than his results against righties. Church's eighth-place lineup spot limits the ceiling, but -140 is reasonable for three ways to cash.
- GARY'S PICKJORDAN WALKERTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5
This is effectively a one-hit bet, and the total-bases price is five cents cheaper than Walker's hits market. He has recorded at least one total base in 11 of his last 15 games, is 4-for-10 with three extra-base hits in this series and owns a .293 average with a .920 OPS against left-handed pitching.
Skubal has dominated right-handed hitters, so I am keeping the confidence below my usual level for this price. Walker is still the Cardinals hitter I trust most to handle premium velocity, and batting third should give him four opportunities unless Skubal completely controls the game.
- THE LONG SHOTJOSHUA BAEZHR OVER 0.5
This is a price play on Báez's specific strength. Five of his six major-league home runs have come in only 29 at-bats against left-handed pitching, producing a 1.206 OPS in the split. He also enters 3-for-5 in this series with a homer and two doubles, and batting cleanup maximizes his chances of seeing Skubal more than twice.
Skubal's changeup makes this a difficult assignment, and the Dodger Stadium night conditions reduce the margin further. Báez is an all-or-nothing hitter, though, and +650 properly rewards that risk while giving me the most appealing power-versus-price combination on the home run board.
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