Sports Picks Archive — Thursday, September 3, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Giants· -166

I keep coming back to who's actually standing on the mound for San Francisco. Blade Tidwell has five starts on his record this season and his team has lost all five. Over his last three he's given up 12 earned runs in 15 innings with 8 walks, and his most recent outing was the worst of his career — three home runs and six earned to Arizona. His whiff rate has come in at 12% in two of his last three starts, and the sweeper he throws more than a third of the time got punished last time out. He puts the ball in the air more than he keeps it down, and today it's 83 degrees at PNC with the wind blowing out to left. The split is what seals it. Left-handed hitters have hit .292 with an .893 OPS and four homers off him; right-handers .182 with a .472 OPS. Pittsburgh's card today is Horwitz, Lowe, Cruz and Jacob Gonzalez from the left side plus Reynolds and Mangum switching. The Pirates are 54-42 against right-handed starters this season and 14-30 against lefties — this is the schedule slot they handle. Lowe carries a .900 OPS with 23 homers against righties, Gonzales .332 with an .830, Cruz an .842 OPS overall. And this specific nine is 25-for-69 in the series and 48-for-157 over the last week, with Gonzales, Cruz and Lowe all in the middle of hot stretches. Yes, Pittsburgh is running a bullpen game, and normally I'd fade that. Not this one. Lake Bachar opens on his eighth such assignment and has allowed two earned runs over his last 9.2 innings, with a curveball generating a 36.6% whiff rate and a .160 xwOBA. Behind him, this relief corps has been the strength of the roster — a 3.12 ERA over the last ten days across 34.2 innings — with Yates, Soto, Weaver, Montgomery and Ramírez all having sat two to four days. Montgomery hasn't allowed a run since late July. Weaver sits at a 2.58 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP. Dotel was brought up this morning for length. More to the point, a parade of arms is exactly the right format against this Giants lineup. Devers is genuinely locked in and I'm not pretending otherwise — .421 over a 10-game hit streak, 32 homers, homers in three straight. But he never sees the same pitcher twice today, and Pittsburgh already showed last night it will just walk him with the game on the line. Behind Devers and Eldridge, San Francisco is running out Whitcomb at a .454 OPS, Furman at .462, Koss at .510, Knizner on 27 at-bats, and Gilbert leading off at 1-for-14 over the past week. That's a lot of outs available. And the other bullpen is in worse shape, not better. San Francisco used five arms yesterday, Seymour on back-to-back days, with Perdomo having thrown 58 pitches Tuesday and Roxby 31. Their unit is at a 4.61 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP on the year and no set closer. Underneath it, the fundamentals line up the same direction: Pittsburgh at +26 run differential, San Francisco at -70. Pirates 22-17 in one-run games, Giants 12-25. Pittsburgh is 39-32 after a loss. Home team, day game, and the Giants are on the fourth game of a road trip with a flight to New York waiting. The Pirates offense outside that nine-run inning has been thin — 2.6 runs a game over the other nine of their last ten — and that's the honest risk here. But the price at -166 is asking for about 60% and I think the pitching matchup alone gets there. I'll lay it.

Yes, Pittsburgh is running a bullpen game, and normally I'd fade that. Not this one. Lake Bachar opens on his eighth such assignment and has allowed two earned runs over his last 9.2 innings, with a curveball generating a 36.6% whiff rate and a .160 xwOBA. Behind him, this relief corps has been the strength of the roster — a 3.12 ERA over the last ten days across 34.2 innings — with Yates, Soto, Weaver, Montgomery and Ramírez all having sat two to four days. Montgomery hasn't allowed a run since late July. Weaver sits at a 2.58 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP. Dotel was brought up this morning for length. More to the point, a parade of arms is exactly the right format against this Giants lineup. Devers is genuinely locked in and I'm not pretending otherwise — .421 over a 10-game hit streak, 32 homers, homers in three straight. But he never sees the same pitcher twice today, and Pittsburgh already showed last night it will just walk him with the game on the line. Behind Devers and Eldridge, San Francisco is running out Whitcomb at a .454 OPS, Furman at .462, Koss at .510, Knizner on 27 at-bats, and Gilbert leading off at 1-for-14 over the past week.

That's a lot of outs available. And the other bullpen is in worse shape, not better. San Francisco used five arms yesterday, Seymour on back-to-back days, with Perdomo having thrown 58 pitches Tuesday and Roxby 31. Their unit is at a 4.61 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP on the year and no set closer. Underneath it, the fundamentals line up the same direction: Pittsburgh at +26 run differential, San Francisco at -70. Pirates 22-17 in one-run games, Giants 12-25. Pittsburgh is 39-32 after a loss. Home team, day game, and the Giants are on the fourth game of a road trip with a flight to New York waiting. The Pirates offense outside that nine-run inning has been thin — 2.6 runs a game over the other nine of their last ten — and that's the honest risk here. But the price at -166 is asking for about 60% and I think the pitching matchup alone gets there. I'll lay it.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Blue Jays· -108

At an even price, I prefer Cleveland’s path from the starter through the late innings. Tanner Bibee has allowed six earned runs over 18.0 innings across his last three starts, all three of which lasted 6.0 innings. José Soriano has allowed 11 earned runs in 17.2 innings over his last three, although his latest start—7.0 innings and three earned runs—shows this is only a modest starting-pitching edge. Cleveland’s left- and switch-heavy lineup also gets the more favorable side of Soriano’s platoon split; he has allowed a .702 OPS to left-handed hitters versus .573 to right-handed hitters. Toronto can counter with six left-handed bats against Bibee, who has allowed a .736 OPS and 20 home runs to lefties, but the Blue Jays are sitting George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Kazuma Okamoto and Myles Straw. Cleveland is also resting Angel Martínez and Patrick Bailey, so I am not treating the lineup angle as overwhelming. The separator is Cleveland’s pitching depth. Its active bullpen carries a 3.15 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, compared with Toronto’s 4.30 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, and Cleveland’s principal late-inning arms are available. Toronto has rested leverage options of its own, but Bibee’s recent stability and the stronger overall bullpen give the Guardians the slightly cleaner route at the same price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs White Sox· -164

Hunter Brown is the separator I’m willing to pay for. His last three starts produced 17.1 innings, four earned runs and 19 strikeouts. Luis Castillo’s last three produced 11.1 innings, 11 earned runs and five strikeouts, and he failed to complete five innings in each one. Brown’s nine walks over that stretch are the concern, but his latest start brought 6.2 innings, one earned run, 10 strikeouts and one walk. The matchup evidence supports that advantage. Castillo has a 10.00 ERA in two starts against Houston this season, while Yordan Alvarez is 11-for-21 with four home runs against him. Brown held Chicago scoreless in his provided start against the White Sox. Those samples are not decisive by themselves, but they point in the same direction as the pitchers’ current form. Chicago’s bullpen is the primary risk to this bet, but Castillo’s recent lack of length could force it to cover substantial innings, and Sean Newcomb threw 41 pitches yesterday. Houston has Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert and Enyel De Los Santos available after none pitched since August 31, with Josh Hader carrying a 0.72 season ERA behind them. I’m laying the price because Houston has the better chance to control the game from Brown through its late-inning arms.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Rutgers· -105

Thursday night in Piscataway brings two reconstructed teams and two quarterbacks making their first starts for their new programs. Rutgers owns the clearer talent and matchup advantages, but the wager asks whether it can turn those advantages into a win of at least 29 points. I’m taking the points because Rutgers must create that separation while debuting Dylan Lonergan and a new defensive system. The Scarlet Knights averaged 28.7 points while allowing 31.8 per game last season. Those figures are not forecasts against UMass, but they make four-touchdown-plus dominance too expensive to assume. William Watson III gives UMass mobility against a Rutgers defense that previously allowed quarterbacks to escape when pressure lost containment. The Minutemen’s 11.1-point and 247.5-yard offensive averages were dreadful, but this is now a roster with 56 newcomers. That turnover does not guarantee improvement; it does make last season’s baseline less precise at such a large number. The danger is Antwan Raymond. He rushed for 1,241 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, while UMass surrendered 278 rushing yards to Bowling Green and 363 to Ohio. Rutgers has a credible route to controlling possession and producing a rout. Even so, UMass does not need to win or match Rutgers offensively. Watson only needs to create enough offense, and the rebuilt defense enough resistance, to keep Rutgers from clearing 28.5.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Wake Forest· -104

Thursday night in Winston-Salem opens the season for two extensively rebuilt rosters. With Wake Forest now required to clear four touchdowns, I’m taking the points. Wake has a legitimate blowout path. Gio Lopez already knows Rob Ezell’s offense, Carlos Hernandez is an established target, and Wake’s more continuous defense faces an Akron offense replacing three starting linemen. Akron is also rebuilding its back seven, giving Wake a favorable matchup if its redesigned passing game operates cleanly. The obstacle is asking Wake to produce that level of separation while returning only two offensive starters and introducing four new projected starters along the offensive line. The spread has already moved from Wake -24.5 to -27.5, turning a comfortable-win proposition into a four-touchdown requirement. Akron’s plus-three turnover margin versus Wake’s minus-six margin last season also identifies a credible way for the Zips to create the extra possessions that protect a large underdog. Akron’s undisclosed quarterback assignment and extensive defensive turnover keep this from being a high-confidence play. Those same uncertainties, however, were already present as the market added three points to Wake’s price. I’ll take the expanded cushion and make Wake’s reconstructed offense prove it can sustain enough clean possessions to cover 27.5.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAFvs Colorado· -110

A sold-out Thursday-night whiteout welcomes two rebuilt teams and two new offensive systems. In that uncertainty, Georgia Tech has the more dependable foundation for controlling the game. The deciding matchup is Tech’s established backfield against a Colorado defense returning no full-time starters and carrying approximately 22 newcomers on its 24-player two-deep. Colorado’s previous unit allowed 355 rushing yards against Arizona State and surrendered 113 of Kansas State’s 206 rushing yards in the fourth quarter. The overhaul could improve that defense, but its first live test comes against Justice Haynes and a Tech offense that does not need to place the entire burden on Alberto Mendoza in his first start. Georgia Tech also brings a defensive front described as three deep against a Colorado offensive line with three projected new starters. Julian Lewis has the experience advantage—two starts, 589 passing yards and four touchdowns without an interception—so Colorado has a credible path through quarterback stability and Brennan Marion’s motion-heavy offense. But that path requires a rebuilt line and an almost entirely new defense to function cohesively immediately in a difficult road environment. Mendoza’s inexperience and Tech replacing 88% of last season’s receptions keep this from being a high-confidence play. Still, Georgia Tech’s covering path rests on its most established unit attacking Colorado’s least established one. I’ll lay the 6.5 with the Yellow Jackets.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Orioles· -122

Jake Bennett is the separator. He enters off six scoreless innings against the Yankees with seven strikeouts and no walks, complementing a 3.27 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 3.02 road ERA. Baltimore has six right-handed hitters against the lefty, but Bennett has still limited righties to a .247 average and .656 OPS. Boston also brings the hotter confirmed lineup: 43-for-151 (.285) over the last seven days, compared with Baltimore’s 36-for-175 (.206). The decisive situational edge is relief availability. Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock and Erik Miller are rested, while Baltimore used six relievers yesterday and Josh Walker has pitched three of the last four days. Boston’s bullpen allowing 28 earned runs in 27.0 innings over the last five days keeps this at modest confidence. Brandon Young is coming off seven innings of one-run ball, and Coby Mayo and Christian Encarnacion-Strand own 1.144 and 1.069 OPS marks against lefties. Still, Bennett’s form and Boston’s better-positioned late-inning arms are enough for me to lay -122.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cubs· -122

Logan Henderson is the separator. He has allowed three earned runs over his last 20.0 innings and completed at least six innings in five consecutive starts. That length matters because JoJo Romero, Antonio Senzatela, Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby all worked the last two days. Milwaukee also has the better late-game foundation. Its bullpen owns a 3.10 ERA over the last 10 days and delivered five scoreless innings Wednesday; Chicago’s bullpen has a 7.58 ERA over that span, with Jacob Webb’s fresh right-forearm contusion adding uncertainty. The Brewers’ confirmed nine are batting .342 in this series and .323 over the last seven days, giving them a credible matchup against a volatile Kevin Gausman. Chicago’s dangerous power and Milwaukee’s recent bullpen usage keep this from being a high-confidence play. Still, the 9 mph wind in from right field helps contain the Cubs’ clearest offensive weapon, and Henderson provides the best route to protecting Milwaukee’s relievers. At -122, I’ll back the stronger starter and more dependable bullpen.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Marlins· -116

This is a bet on Michael Wacha’s matchup, not on Kansas City being “due.” Wacha has allowed five earned runs across his last 20 innings with 19 strikeouts and one walk. He also owns a 3.04 home ERA and has limited left-handed hitters to a .216 average and .606 OPS. That is a strong fit against a Miami lineup starting five left-handed bats. Sandy Alcantara remains a formidable opponent, but his 4.22 road ERA contrasts with Wacha’s home work. Kansas City’s confirmed nine has hit .291 with 15 home runs over the last 15 days, and Michael Massey returned Wednesday with two hits and a double. The Royals have enough current offense to support the starting-pitching edge I see. Kansas City’s bullpen is the primary risk. However, Wacha has completed seven and eight innings in his last two starts, Steven Cruz has not pitched in six days, and Craig Kimbrel and Nate Pearson threw only nine and 14 pitches yesterday. At a modest -116, Wacha’s recent command, home performance and handedness advantage are enough for me to back Kansas City.

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GARY'S PICK

NCAAF@ Illinois· -118

Thursday night in Champaign brings two heavily rebuilt teams, each unveiling a new 3-3-5 defense in warm, humid conditions. Illinois deserves to be favored, but this number asks a lineup returning only seven starters to create four quarters of immediate separation. UAB’s clearest route inside the number is through its running game. Illinois is introducing a smaller, inexperienced defensive front after allowing a 45% third-down conversion rate last season and surrendering 209 and 157 rushing yards in two of its final three games. Roderick Robinson II supplies a 235-pound power option, while Bam McReynolds is part of the planned multi-back approach. Productive early-down runs would keep Ryder Burton out of obvious passing situations, shorten the game and make the four-touchdown threshold more difficult for Illinois to clear. Burton’s 20-of-27, 251-yard, three-touchdown performance against Memphis provides evidence that he can operate efficiently when UAB stays on schedule. Illinois also has four new offensive-line starters protecting Katin Houser. Houser’s experience and quick release are serious counters, but UAB’s pressure-oriented defense at least has a direct way to test that transition. I am not assuming UAB’s reconstructed defense has suddenly been fixed: its previous unit conceded 5,080 total yards, including 2,293 rushing yards, and the program finished with only 10 forced turnovers and a minus-12 turnover margin. Houser exploiting that unit is the strongest threat to this ticket and keeps my confidence measured. The number decides it. UAB does not have to prove it is the better team; it needs enough sustained offense to prevent every Illinois advantage from becoming a short field and another touchdown. There is not enough evidence to support the UAB moneyline, but Illinois has too many simultaneous transitions for me to require a 28-point victory. I want the full 27.5 points.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rays· +112

Quantrill is the fulcrum. Over his last three starts, he has worked 19.0 innings with 3 ER, 19 K and 0 BB, and his five home starts have produced a 1.20 ERA over 30.0 innings. McClanahan is a quality opponent, but he has a 3.86 ERA over his last three starts, a 3.91 road ERA, and has not completed six innings in any of his last six starts. That creates a real chance for Texas to get to Tampa Bay’s bullpen earlier. The confirmed Rangers lineup also sends seven right-handed hitters at McClanahan. Duran owns an .862 OPS against lefties, Foscue .989 and Burger .863; even the left-handed Nimmo is at .875. Collectively, these nine are 44-for-157 (.280) with 6 HR over the last 7 days. Texas’ recent bullpen performance is the main danger, but Latz last pitched two days ago and Junis and Alexander last pitched four days ago, while Baker, Matz, Booser and Rodríguez all worked yesterday for Tampa Bay. The Rays have the better overall relief profile, but at +112 I’m taking Quantrill, Texas’ handedness setup and the more attractive price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mariners· -126

I’m paying for the run because Seattle’s pitching advantage may not last deep enough into this game. Kade Anderson has completed only 10 innings across two MLB starts, issued five walks and is working under an 80-pitch threshold. That likely exposes a Seattle bullpen that has allowed 18 earned runs in 21.1 innings over the last seven days. José A. Ferrer has pitched on consecutive days, Seranthony Domínguez has worked three of the last four, and Michael Rucker threw 36 pitches yesterday. Oakland’s listed nine are hitting .288 with eight home runs over the last seven days. Henry Bolte, Zack Gelof, Jonah Heim and Alika Williams also carry OPS marks of .785 or better against left-handed pitching. Behind them, the Athletics’ bullpen has allowed 11 earned runs in 25.2 innings over the last seven days and has the well-rested Elvis Alvarado available. Jack Perkins is the obvious danger after allowing 12 earned runs in his last 13 innings, but he did limit Baltimore to one earned run over five innings in his latest start. In a pitcher-friendly park, Oakland does not need him to outpitch Anderson; it needs him to prevent an early separation before Anderson’s pitch limit brings Seattle’s bullpen into play. The extra run also has added value against a home team that may not bat in the ninth when leading. I make the Athletics more likely to stay within one run or win than the -126 price requires.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cardinals· -130

I’m laying the run and a half because tonight’s matchup is materially different from the first two games. Tarik Skubal has held right-handed hitters to a .189 average and .549 OPS across 350 at-bats, and St. Louis is starting seven right-handed hitters, one left-handed hitter and one switch-hitter. Skubal also enters off three starts covering 19.0 innings with five earned runs, 25 strikeouts and three walks. Quinn Mathews has made only four MLB starts and has not completed six innings. He owns a 6.43 road ERA over 14.0 innings, while right-handed hitters have batted .297 with a .756 OPS against him. Los Angeles counters with six right-handed hitters and one switch-hitter, and its current nine are batting .340 in this series and .290 over the last seven days. The bullpen bridge is the separator. St. Louis played an eight-pitcher game Wednesday, Graceffo threw 48 pitches, and Fernandez, Gastelum and Bruihl all worked for a second consecutive day. That matters behind a starter whose four outings have lasted between 4.0 and 5.2 innings. Los Angeles used only three relievers Wednesday, none worked both of the last two days, and its current bullpen owns a 3.37 season ERA compared with St. Louis’ 3.75. Ohtani and Muncy sitting—and the expensive -130 price—keep me from making this a high-confidence play. But Skubal’s specific matchup against this lineup, Mathews’ road uncertainty and the Cardinals’ relief workload give Los Angeles enough paths to create the required separation.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

LAKE BACHARPITCHER OUTS OVER 5.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -190

This is a job-description bet. Bachar is opening his eighth game of the year for Pittsburgh, and the assignment has been consistent: two innings, sometimes a third, 28 to 52 pitches, then hand it off. Look at the outs column across his seven starts — 7, 6, 9, 4, 6, 9, 8. Six of seven clear this number, and the one miss was back on June 19, before the trade, before this role got defined. The last three times out he's gone 3.0, 2.0 and 2.1 innings and given up two earned runs total across 9.2 frames. What pushes me further is the shape of Pittsburgh's staff today. Carmen Mlodzinski was the bulk arm behind Bachar in the last bullpen game, but he threw 30 pitches yesterday and has never once worked back-to-back days — 0 for 18 following outings of 25-plus pitches. He isn't coming in early. Wilber Dotel got recalled this morning specifically because somebody has to eat innings, and Dotel averages 32 pitches an outing. Nobody in that room is in a hurry to see Bachar hand it over after four outs. If anything, the length shortage argues he stretches. His stuff also plays for a short burst. The curveball has a 36.6 percent whiff rate and a .160 xwOBA, the slider 31.9 percent, the sweeper 36.4. Lefties are hitting .212 off him and righties .167. And the lineup he's facing is thin behind Devers and Eldridge — Whitcomb at a .454 OPS, Furman at .462, Koss at .510, Knizner on 27 at-bats all year. That's a group that lets an opener churn through six outs without needing 40 pitches. The honest risk: an opener who gets hit early can get yanked mid-second, and Devers has homered in three straight games. But two full innings is the plan, and openers almost always get their two. The price at -190 is steep and it caps how much I love it. The role is clear enough that I'll still pay it.

GARY'S PICK

BLADE TIDWELLPITCHER OUTS OVER 14.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· -148

Fifteen outs. That's all this asks — five complete innings from Tidwell. And here's the thing about his season: he has reached exactly that mark in four of five starts. His innings line reads 5.0, 5.2, 4.1, 5.2, 5.0. Outs: 15, 17, 13, 17, 15. The only miss was the Colorado start where he walked five and got pulled in the fifth. Even in his career-worst outing — three home runs and six earned runs to Arizona last Friday — he was left out there for exactly five innings and 100 pitches. That tells you something about how this staff treats him. He's a 25-year-old they've publicly said is being developed for the 2027 rotation, and his pitch counts back it up: 100, 93, 63, 96, 100. They let him wear it. The bullpen situation makes the leash even longer today. San Francisco burned five arms yesterday in a ten-inning game. Seymour has worked back-to-back days and thrown 34 pitches over two. Sanmartin, Walker, Foley and Smith all pitched Wednesday. Perdomo threw 58 pitches Tuesday in his major league debut, Roxby 31. Harris has never worked on consecutive days. This is a club with a game tomorrow in New York and a relief corps that has covered 31 innings in seven days. Vitello needs length, not a hook. I'm not pretending Tidwell is good right now. His whiff rate has been 12 percent in two of the last three, left-handed hitters have a .893 OPS and four homers off him, and Pittsburgh runs five lefties plus two switch-hitters at him with the wind blowing out to left. That's the case against. But blowing up and getting fifteen outs are not mutually exclusive for this pitcher — he proved that against Arizona. The mechanism that beats this bet is a walk-fueled meltdown like the Rockies game, not simply giving up runs. Five innings from a young starter whose team can't afford to go to the pen early. I'll take the outs.

GARY'S PICK

BRETT BATEMANSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -140

Bateman has recorded a single in 10 of his last 15 games and averages one per game through his first 21 appearances. His profile fits this market: 21 of his 27 hits have been singles, and the leadoff spot should give him four or five opportunities against Tanner Bibee and the Cleveland bullpen. Bateman has cooled slightly in this series, but his contact-oriented approach gives me enough at this number.

GARY'S PICK

LUIS CASTILLOK'S UNDER 4.5

MLBChicago White Sox· -133

Castillo has stayed under this number in six of his last eight starts, with only five strikeouts across his last three. He has also failed to complete five innings in three straight, shrinking his opportunity to reach five punchouts. Houston strikes out in only 20% of its plate appearances against right-handers, and every hitter in the confirmed lineup owns a season strikeout rate below Castillo's recent opponents collectively. The price is playable because both the matchup and his short-start trend point toward another limited strikeout total.

THE LONG SHOT

JEREMY PENAHR OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +610

This is the long shot I want against a starter who has allowed 14 home runs over his last eight outings and multiple homers in six of those starts. Pena has gone deep four times in his last 15 games, owns 17 homers in 89 games and gets the maximum plate-appearance upside from the leadoff spot. He is also 7-for-23 against Castillo. The short left-field dimensions suit Pena's right-handed power, and +610 is enough return to take the swing.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE BENNETTPITCHER OUTS OVER 16.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -112

Bennett has cleared this number in six of his last eight starts and averages 17.6 outs per start. He just handled the Yankees for six scoreless innings on only 83 pitches, and his 18 walks across 93.2 innings give him a strong chance to keep the pitch count under control. Baltimore's right-heavy lineup is the concern, but Bennett has held righties to a .656 OPS. I need only one out in the sixth from a starter Boston should ask to provide length.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON YOUNGPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· -128

Young has issued at least two walks in five of his last eight starts and averages 2.0 per outing. Boston's first five hitters all carry on-base percentages of .318 or better, with Roman Anthony, Mickey Gasper and Nick Sogard each above .360. That patience should give Young enough extended counts to issue the two walks this ticket needs.

THE LONG SHOT

MICKEY GASPERHR OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +585

Gasper has homered in six of his last 15 games, including a two-homer performance, and owns a .980 OPS with all seven of his season homers against right-handed pitching. Brandon Young has allowed 17 homers in 23 starts, with eight of the 13 scoring plays against him across his recent outings coming via the long ball. Batting second should give Gasper four opportunities, and +585 is enough return for his current power surge.

GARY'S PICK

LOGAN HENDERSONPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -150

Henderson has stayed under this number in seven of his last eight starts, allowing only three earned runs across his last 20 innings. His fastball and changeup have held hitters from both sides below a .190 average, and the wind blowing in gives him added protection against a Cubs lineup that does its greatest damage with home runs. He has completed at least six innings in five straight starts without allowing more than three earned runs in any of them.

GARY'S PICK

KEVIN GAUSMANPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -144

Gausman has allowed at least five hits in six of his last eight starts, and Milwaukee has collected 26 hits while scoring 18 runs over the last two games. His splitter remains a legitimate out pitch, but opponents are batting .294 against the four-seamer he throws more than half the time. With five left-handed hitters and several hot bats in the confirmed Milwaukee lineup, I expect the Brewers to reach five hits before Chicago's vulnerable bullpen takes over.

THE LONG SHOT

ALEX BREGMANHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +640

This is a price play on the hottest power hitter in the matchup. Bregman has eight home runs over his last 15 games and four in this series, including one against Milwaukee's ace Wednesday. Henderson has been excellent, but he has surrendered 11 homers in 14 starts, and six of the seven scoring plays against him across his last five outings have come via the long ball. The wind coming from right field is less troublesome for Bregman's pull power toward left, and +640 is enough compensation for the difficult matchup.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE ISBELH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBKansas City Royals· -135

Isbel is batting ninth after going 0-for-7 in this series, and he has produced no hits, runs or RBIs in four of his past six games. Now he draws Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed a low 5.1% barrel rate while holding left-handed hitters to a .680 OPS. Isbel likely needs either multiple hits or involvement in a scoring play to beat this number, and the bottom-of-the-order placement limits his opportunities.

GARY'S PICK

SANDY ALCANTARAPITCHER OUTS OVER 18.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +135

This price is worth taking on Alcantara recording one out in the seventh. He has completed at least six innings in eight straight starts and cleared 18.5 outs in five of those eight. His slider has held hitters to a .114 xwOBA, his overall barrel rate is only 5.1%, and Kansas City has a modest .722 OPS against right-handed pitching. Miami also has an incentive to ride its ace after using five relievers Wednesday.

THE LONG SHOT

HERIBERTO HERNANDEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +310

Hernandez is my choice from the home-run board because he owns 22 homers and has gone deep four times in his past 15 games. Michael Wacha has allowed 22 home runs in 27 starts, with 14 coming against right-handed hitters, and he has surrendered a homer in six of his past eight outings. Hernandez leads off, giving him the best chance on this board to receive five plate appearances, and the 12 mph wind blowing toward left field is favorable for his right-handed power.

GARY'S PICK

CAL QUANTRILLPITCHER WALKS UNDER 1.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -140

Quantrill has issued one walk or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, including zero in each of his last three. His command is peaking at the right time, and Tampa Bay's confirmed lineup has only three hitters with a season walk rate above ten percent. I trust him to attack the zone and make the Rays earn their traffic.

GARY'S PICK

CODY FREEMANH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -185

Freeman has produced at least one hit, run or RBI in 12 of his last 15 games and owns a .333 average with an .890 OPS against left-handed pitching. McClanahan has been substantially tougher on lefties than righties, giving Freeman the preferred side of the split. One single cashes this, and Freeman has recorded a hit in 11 of those 15 games.

THE LONG SHOT

JUSTIN FOSCUEHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +850

Foscue is the long-shot swing I want against McClanahan. He has eight home runs in 115 at-bats against lefties with a .989 OPS, and four of his last 15 games have included a homer. Batting fifth should give him multiple chances with traffic ahead of him, while McClanahan's four-seamer has allowed a .364 expected wOBA. At this price, Foscue's lefty-mashing power is worth the shot.

GARY'S PICK

ALIKA WILLIAMSH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -140

Williams has cleared this in 11 of his last 15 games, and his .307 average with an .851 OPS against left-handers makes him a strong fit against Kade Anderson. He also enters off a homer and a double Wednesday. The eighth lineup spot limits his opportunities, but one hit, run or RBI is a low enough bar against a rookie expected to work no more than about 80 pitches.

THE LONG SHOT

RANDY AROZARENAHR OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· +500

Arozarena gets the best combination of price and opportunity on the home-run board. He has four homers in his last 15 games, an .820 OPS against right-handed pitching and two career homers in four at-bats against Jack Perkins. That tiny matchup history is supporting evidence, not the foundation: Perkins has a 6.42 ERA, has allowed 18 homers, and his heavily used four-seamer carries a .396 xwOBA. The pitcher-friendly park is the restraint, but a hot leadoff hitter likely to receive four or five chances is worth the swing at +500.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL STEFANICH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -145

Stefanic has produced at least one hit, run or RBI in four of his last six games and owns six hits in 16 at-bats this season. Batting sixth gives him a better opportunity than the other bottom-order options, while Anderson has issued five walks in 10 major-league innings. The sample on Stefanic is small, but this market gives him three paths to cash before Seattle turns to a bullpen that has allowed 18 earned runs over its last 21.1 innings.

GARY'S PICK

NATHAN CHURCHH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -140

Church has cleared this number in 11 of his last 15 games and is 3-for-8 through the first two games of this series. One hit settles the over, but the combined market also gives me paths through a run or RBI. The left-on-left matchup does not scare me here. Left-handed hitters own a .278 average and .758 OPS against Skubal, noticeably better than his results against righties. Church's eighth-place lineup spot limits the ceiling, but -140 is reasonable for three ways to cash.

GARY'S PICK

JORDAN WALKERTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -170

This is effectively a one-hit bet, and the total-bases price is five cents cheaper than Walker's hits market. He has recorded at least one total base in 11 of his last 15 games, is 4-for-10 with three extra-base hits in this series and owns a .293 average with a .920 OPS against left-handed pitching. Skubal has dominated right-handed hitters, so I am keeping the confidence below my usual level for this price. Walker is still the Cardinals hitter I trust most to handle premium velocity, and batting third should give him four opportunities unless Skubal completely controls the game.

THE LONG SHOT

JOSHUA BAEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +650

This is a price play on Báez's specific strength. Five of his six major-league home runs have come in only 29 at-bats against left-handed pitching, producing a 1.206 OPS in the split. He also enters 3-for-5 in this series with a homer and two doubles, and batting cleanup maximizes his chances of seeing Skubal more than twice. Skubal's changeup makes this a difficult assignment, and the Dodger Stadium night conditions reduce the margin further. Báez is an all-or-nothing hitter, though, and +650 properly rewards that risk while giving me the most appealing power-versus-price combination on the home run board.

Research

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BULLPENSTL @ LAD
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
The Cardinals have covered 16.3 relief innings in three games, leaving several important arms unavailable or limited. If the starter cannot provide length, Los Angeles gets a real chance to attack the soft part of this bullpen.
PLATOON EDGESF @ PIT
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Lake Bachar (RHP), batting 1st
Gilbert gets the platoon edge against Bachar and leads off, so he should see maximum opportunity from the jump. I like his chances to create immediate traffic for San Francisco.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ BAL
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Mayo gets his preferred matchup against Bennett and bats second, giving him premium early opportunities. He can drive in the leadoff man or start Baltimore's first serious threat himself.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
TEAM RECORDMIL @ CHC
Brewers 7-1 in Logan Henderson's last 8 starts
Milwaukee is 7-1 across Henderson's last eight starts, and that is enough sustained team success to respect. His turn gives the Brewers a strong foundation in Chicago tonight.
TEAM RECORDOAK @ SEA
Athletics 1-7 in Jack Perkins's last 8 starts
Oakland has won just once in Perkins's last eight starts. Even with the starter pitching better lately, the Athletics have repeatedly failed to complete the job on his days.
PLATOON EDGESF @ PIT
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Devers gets a right-hander while occupying the two-hole, an excellent combination for both volume and run production. Bachar cannot afford many mistakes against a bat this dangerous.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ KC
Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 4th against Michael Wacha (RHP)
Griffin Conine's recent slump does not erase his strength against right-handers. Batting cleanup against Michael Wacha gives him a clear rebound opportunity with run-producing upside.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ CLE
Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Jose Soriano (RHP), batting 5th
Lowe owns the platoon advantage against Soriano, and batting fifth should bring opportunities with runners aboard. His recent slump makes this a bounce-back spot rather than a pure form play.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKOAK @ SEA
Cal Raleigh: 1.233 OPS in Last 15 Days
Cal Raleigh's 1.233 OPS over the past 15 days shows how well he is seeing the ball, even if that pace is unsustainable. With only one total base required, I still like the heater to produce one ordinary hit.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
STREAKMIL @ CHC
CHC games have gone OVER 6 straight
Cubs games have gone over six straight, and Milwaukee brings a five-game over streak of its own. With the total sitting at only 6.5, I see another favorable scoring setup at Wrigley.
P final total 3 vs 6.5
PARK WEATHERMIA @ KC
Wind blowing out 12 mph at Kauffman Stadium tonight
A 12 mph wind blowing out at Kauffman should reward elevated contact, particularly pulled fly balls from right-handed hitters. Both offenses get a better home-run and extra-base environment than usual.
P final total 10 vs 9 (over lean)
HEAT CHECKSF @ PIT
Rafael Devers: 1.242 OPS in Last 15 Days
Devers has posted a 1.242 OPS over the last 15 days across enough plate appearances for me to respect the form. His established power gives that surge real teeth against Pittsburgh.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BULLPENMIL @ CHC
Milwaukee Brewers pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Milwaukee's bullpen has thrown 14 innings in three games, with several arms likely down and another length option compromised. Chicago has a clear opening if it can chase the starter before the late innings.
COOLING OFFCHW @ HOU
Munetaka Murakami: .387 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Brown
Murakami's .387 OPS over the last 15 days is ugly, but I see a cold stretch rather than a broken hitter. Facing a right-hander gives him a legitimate route back toward his normal production.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ CLE
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 4th against Tanner Bibee (RHP)
Sanchez gets his stronger side against Bibee and bats cleanup, giving the matchup direct RBI value. Any traffic created ahead of him could become Cleveland's problem quickly.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
STARTER FORMOAK @ SEA
Jack Perkins: 1.32 ERA over his last 3 starts
Perkins owns a 1.32 ERA over his last three starts and is controlling damage much better than his season line suggests. Seattle still needs to make his baserunners matter rather than waiting for him to unravel on his own.
P 3 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
TEAM RECORDTB @ TEX
Rays 6-2 in Shane McClanahan's last 8 starts
Tampa Bay is 6-2 in McClanahan's last eight starts, giving his rotation turn a dependable winning profile. That track record provides a sturdy starting point in Texas.
TEAM RECORDTOR @ CLE
Guardians 2-6 in Tanner Bibee's last 8 starts
Cleveland is only 2-6 in Bibee's last eight starts, showing how often his outings have failed to become complete team wins. The Guardians need a sharper all-around performance against Toronto.
HEAT CHECKBOS @ BAL
Mickey Gasper: 1.548 OPS in Last 15 Days
Gasper's 1.548 OPS is a blazing run, but it rests on only 31 plate appearances and sits far above his established level. With Baltimore needing only to hold him below two total bases, I am not chasing the peak.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGETB @ TEX
Justin Foscue (bats R) gets a LHP from the 5th spot
Foscue's best work comes against left-handers, making him a dangerous fifth hitter against McClanahan. Texas can still threaten after the top of the order cycles through.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ CHC
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Turang gets the right-handed matchup he wants and bats second, maximizing both his plate appearances and scoring chances. It is a strong setup for him to help build Milwaukee's early innings.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDBOS @ BAL
Orioles 6-2 in Brandon Young's last 8 starts
Baltimore has gone 6-2 in Young's last eight starts. The Orioles have consistently found a winning formula behind him, making this a favorable home setup against Boston.
STREAKBOS @ BAL
BOS games have gone OVER 5 straight
Boston games have gone over five straight, with scoring comfortably clearing the market rather than barely surviving. A 9.5 total is higher, but it still sits below the recent production surrounding this team.
P final total 11 vs 9.5
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ BAL
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (bats R) hits 6th against Jake Bennett (LHP)
Encarnacion-Strand gets his preferred side against Bennett, adding a legitimate platoon threat from the sixth spot. Baltimore's lineup remains dangerous even if the left-hander survives its first wave.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSBoston Red Sox — week of 8/31
Payton Tolle
Tolle gets Seattle at home Monday and Baltimore on the road Sunday. A 2.73 xERA makes him one of my foundation arms for this scoring week. PLAN_AROUND — keep him active for both starts.
STREAKTB @ TEX
TEX games have gone OVER 5 straight
Texas games have gone over in five straight, and those results have produced real separation from the totals. Tonight's 7.75 asks roughly the same question the streak has already answered.
P final total 6 vs 7.75
STREAKMIL @ CHC
MIL games have gone OVER 5 straight
Milwaukee enters on five straight overs, while Chicago has cleared six in a row. A total of 6.5 is too inviting for a matchup carrying this much scoring momentum.
P final total 3 vs 6.5
HEAT CHECKMIL @ CHC
Alex Bregman: 1.096 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bregman's 1.096 OPS over the last 15 days looks like a proven veteran finding his best swing. I respect the form, though over 1.5 total bases still requires him to do more than merely reach safely.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
COOLING OFFOAK @ SEA
Julio Rodriguez: .421 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rodriguez's .421 OPS over the last 15 days points to a real timing issue, not just two or three empty games. His talent makes a rebound inevitable at some point, but tonight remains a prove-it spot.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADSTL @ LAD
Cardinals are 4-1 vs Dodgers this season
St. Louis is 4-1 against Los Angeles this season, but that history does not automatically travel with the matchup to Dodger Stadium. I respect the Cardinals' success without treating it as tonight's deciding edge.
HEAT CHECKTB @ TEX
Ezequiel Duran: 1.114 OPS in Last 15 Days
Duran's 1.114 OPS has enough volume behind it to deserve attention, even if the power pace is unlikely to last. One extra-base hit gives his over 1.5 total bases a clean path.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADOAK @ SEA
Mariners are 5-2 vs Athletics this season
Seattle's 5-2 season record against Oakland carries some weight, and the latest blowout showed the matchup's ceiling. I still view it as supporting context rather than the central reason to back the Mariners.
COOLING OFFMIL @ CHC
Brice Turang: .456 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kevin Gausman
Turang's .456 OPS over the last 15 days is concerning, but his broader production against right-handers gives him a credible rebound route. Gausman supplies the preferred side, making this a buy-low setup.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFSTL @ LAD
Alec Burleson: .502 OPS in Last 15 Days
Burleson's .502 OPS over the last 15 days suggests his swing is not producing its usual damage. His season baseline offers rebound potential, but there is no obvious matchup edge forcing me to call it tonight.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKCHW @ HOU
Tristan Peters: 1.162 OPS in Last 15 Days
Peters has a 1.162 OPS over the last 15 days, a long enough surge to count as legitimate short-term form. It still looks more like a peak than a permanent transformation, but Houston cannot dismiss his power.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKMIA @ KC
Carter Jensen: 1.082 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jensen's 1.082 OPS is supported by a 21-homer foundation, making this power run easier to trust. In favorable hitting weather, one barrel can be enough to clear 1.5 total bases.
P 3-for-4, 9 TB
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/31
Paul Skenes
Skenes draws the Giants and Angels at home, with a 3.23 xERA behind the two-start setup. That is an easy weekly commitment for me. PLAN_AROUND — start him for the full week.
HEAT CHECKMIL @ CHC
William Contreras: 1.046 OPS in Last 15 Days
Contreras has sustained a 1.046 OPS across nearly 50 recent plate appearances, so the form deserves respect. I still want real damage before backing over 1.5 total bases, because a walk or single alone does not finish the job.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFSF @ PIT
Spencer Horwitz: .374 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Blade Tidwell
Horwitz's .374 OPS over the last 15 days makes the slump impossible to ignore. Still, his larger body of work against right-handers makes Tidwell a sensible opponent for a return toward normal.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
CLOSER WATCHMIA @ KC
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
I see a live save spot tonight: KC is favored at -116, and both Lucas Erceg and the committee are fully rested. With Erceg at 12 saves and Alex Lange at 10, the ninth remains genuinely shared. Hold Erceg and add Lange where available; both are viable saves chases this week.
COOLING OFFOAK @ SEA
Taylor Ward: .327 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ward has produced a .327 OPS over the last 15 days with almost no damage. His season level says a correction will come, but tonight does not present an obvious catalyst.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
COOLING OFFCHW @ HOU
Christian Walker: .471 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Luis Castillo
Walker's .471 OPS over the last 15 days meets a right-handed matchup that offers no natural escape from the slump. Castillo can keep attacking the weakness already visible in Walker's current form.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
STREAKOAK @ SEA
OAK games have gone OVER 4 straight
Oakland games have gone over four straight, with scoring comfortably outpacing expectations. Tonight's 7.5 total lowers the hurdle and gives that run another favorable setup.
P final total 11 vs 7.5
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Angels — week of 8/31
Walbert Ureña
Ureña has the Yankees at home Monday before visiting Pittsburgh on Sunday. The 3.40 xERA is enough for me to chase both turns. STREAM_BOTH — use him for the entire two-start week.
HR THREATAthletics @ Mariners
Randy Arozarena
Gary's Take Arozarena gets the best combination of price and opportunity on the home-run board. He has four homers in his last 15 games, an .820 OPS against right-handed pitching and two career homers in four at-bats against Jack Perkins.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATBrewers @ Cubs
Alex Bregman
Gary's Take This is a price play on the hottest power hitter in the matchup. Bregman has eight home runs over his last 15 games and four in this series, including one against Milwaukee's ace Wednesday.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKBOS @ BAL
Dylan Beavers: 1.016 OPS in Last 15 Days
Beavers owns a 1.016 OPS over the last 15 days, meaningful form even if it does not redefine him as a hitter. At over 0.5 total bases, one clean single is all he needs.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONOAK @ SEA
Jack Perkins: 6.42 ERA vs 4.01 xERA
Perkins's 6.42 ERA badly trails his 4.01 expected mark, while the strikeouts and contact profile suggest he has pitched better than the results. I expect a cleaner performance, though his tendency to allow traffic still creates risk.
P 3 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
COOLING OFFTOR @ CLE
Nathaniel Lowe: .468 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jose Soriano
Lowe's .468 OPS over the last 15 days is a steep drop, but his season work against right-handers says the slump has gone too far. Soriano gives him a credible snap-back matchup.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFMIA @ KC
Griffin Conine: .434 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael Wacha
Griffin Conine has fallen to a .434 OPS over the past 15 days, but his production against right-handers says the swing is not gone. Michael Wacha gives him the matchup he needs for a rebound.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/31
Kyle Harrison
Harrison spends the week on the road, facing the Cubs Monday and the Reds Sunday. With a 3.52 xERA, I am still taking the two-start volume. STREAM_BOTH — roll with both road starts.
PACE & SCRIPTAKR @ WAKE
AKR @ WAKE carries a 47.5 market total
The market expects points to come in patches, with enough empty possessions to keep the game below the slate’s scoring center. That expectation cracks if explosive plays or short fields turn routine drives into quick touchdowns.
TWO STARTSTexas Rangers — week of 8/31
Jacob deGrom
deGrom stays home for the Athletics on Monday and the Rays on Saturday. His 3.52 xERA and two-start schedule put him firmly in my lineup. STREAM_BOTH — start him twice.
TWO STARTSHouston Astros — week of 8/31
Peter Lambert
Lambert gets the White Sox and Diamondbacks at home, with the starts split between Monday and Sunday. A 3.60 xERA keeps this two-step usable. STREAM_BOTH — take both home starts.
HR THREATWhite Sox @ Astros
Jeremy Pena
Gary's Take This is the long shot I want against a starter who has allowed 14 home runs over his last eight outings and multiple homers in six of those starts. Pena has gone deep four times in his last 15 games, owns 17 homers in 89 games and gets the maximum plate-appearance upside from the leadoff spot.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
UPCOMING GAMESNFL
Next NFL slate · SEP 9
BDL lists 1 NFL game on the next slate. Its kickoff time is confirmed.
CLOSER WATCHTOR @ CLE
Cade Smith
I see a live save spot tonight: Cleveland is favored at -108, and Cade Smith is fully rested despite one outing in the last three games. With 35 saves to Matt Festa's 1, Smith owns the ninth. Start and hold Smith; Festa is not a saves chase.
CLOSER WATCHTOR @ CLE
Louis Varland
I see a live save spot tonight: Toronto is favored at -108, and Louis Varland is fully rested with no outings in the last three games. His 31 saves keep him clearly ahead of Paul Sewald's 24 in a non-committee. Start and hold Varland; Sewald is only a secondary saves stash.
CLOSER WATCHBOS @ BAL
Aroldis Chapman
I see a live save spot tonight: Boston is favored at -126, and Aroldis Chapman is fully rested despite one outing in the last three games. His 30 saves versus Erik Miller's 4 make the ninth clear. Start and hold Chapman; Miller is not a priority for saves this week.
COOLING OFFTOR @ CLE
Ernie Clement: .386 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tanner Bibee
Ernie Clement's .386 OPS over the past 15 days is a sharp dip, though his overall ceiling remains modest. Tanner Bibee gives him his better side, so I expect stabilization more than a dramatic breakout.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADMIA @ KC
Marlins are 2-0 vs Royals this season
Miami's 2-0 record against Kansas City comes from too small a sample to establish real control. Tonight's conditions and pitching setup deserve far more weight than that brief sweep.
HEAD-TO-HEADCHW @ HOU
Astros are 4-2 vs White Sox this season
Houston is 4-2 against the White Sox this season, with the latest shutout reinforcing its run-prevention edge. The record supports the Astros at home, though the pitchers taking the ball matter more than the series score.
TWO STARTSArizona Diamondbacks — week of 8/31
Brandon Pfaadt
Pfaadt opens against Philadelphia at home Monday and finishes at Houston Saturday. The 3.76 xERA does not scare me away from the two-start opportunity. STREAM_BOTH — keep him active for both turns.
TWO STARTSToronto Blue Jays — week of 8/31
Spencer Miles
Miles visits Cleveland on Tuesday and Kansas City on Sunday. His 3.01 xERA gives me enough confidence to build the pitching week around him despite both starts coming on the road. PLAN_AROUND — lock him in for the week.
PACE & SCRIPTMASS @ RUTG
MASS @ RUTG carries a 58.5 market total
The market expects scoring to arrive steadily, whether through sustained drives or possessions created close to the end zone. That expectation cracks if drives repeatedly stall, red-zone trips end without touchdowns, and the clock keeps moving between scores.
REGRESSIONTB @ TEX
Chandler Simpson: .312 AVG vs .257 xBA
Chandler Simpson's .312 average has run well ahead of his .257 expected mark. I see him as a sell-high bat against Texas and would avoid paying a price based on the surface production.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONSTL @ LAD
Quinn Mathews: 5.03 ERA vs 3.32 xERA
Mathews's 5.03 ERA sits well above his 3.32 expected mark, and his tiny barrel rate points toward better results ahead. The rebound case is real, but facing Los Angeles while still allowing traffic makes this a demanding test.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
TOMORROWARI @ HOU
Merrill Kelly: 5.08 ERA vs 6.94 xERA
Kelly's 5.08 ERA actually understates the danger indicated by his 6.94 expected mark. Too much authoritative contact has gone unpunished, and Houston is capable of making that hidden damage surface.
STARTER FORMTOR @ CLE
Jose Soriano: 5.60 ERA over his last 3 starts
Soriano has a 5.60 ERA across his last three starts, with additional traffic turning into actual damage. Toronto should get repeated scoring chances rather than needing one isolated mistake.
P 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
BULLPENBOS @ BAL
Boston Red Sox pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Boston's bullpen has logged 14.7 innings in three games, but its short relievers are in better shape than the raw total implies. The vulnerability is length, so Baltimore benefits most if it can force an early starter exit.
REPLACEMENTTOR @ CLE
Nathan Lukes (.756 vs RHP) replaces Addison Barger at RF tonight
Lukes replaces Barger in right field and inherits the second spot, putting him immediately inside Toronto's best early scoring opportunities. His stronger work against right-handers makes him a natural fit there.
P 2-for-5, 4 TB
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Sean Keys
Sean Keys has given us almost nothing to justify a season-long roster spot: a .189 average and .508 OPS are both brutal. Batting fifth tonight keeps him relevant for one more game, but a lineup spot alone cannot outweigh that production. CUT
REPLACEMENTTB @ TEX
Jonny DeLuca (.759 vs RHP) replaces Jake Fraley at RF tonight
Jonny DeLuca replaces Jake Fraley and steps into a spot that can drive home the top of Tampa Bay's order. His matchup gives the Rays a better chance to maintain lineup depth through the middle.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTSF @ PIT
Harrison Bader (CF) is out for SF — Jonah Cox starts in his place tonight
Cox replaces Bader in center and steps directly into San Francisco's cleanup spot. That creates immediate RBI opportunity, but it also asks a new lineup piece to handle a central offensive role.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONMIL @ CHC
Andrew Vaughn: .314 AVG vs .269 xBA
Vaughn's .314 average has run well ahead of his .269 expected mark, signaling fewer favorable bounces ahead. I am looking to fade his hit and total-base overs against Chicago.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
REGRESSIONSF @ PIT
Jake Mangum: .286 AVG vs .245 xBA
Mangum's .286 average is running ahead of his .245 expected mark, suggesting too many balls have found grass. I see him as a sell-high option, particularly in hit-based markets.
P 1-for-1, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADMIL @ CHC
Brewers are 6-5 vs Cubs this season
Milwaukee leads Chicago 6-5 across 11 meetings, the deepest season sample on tonight's board but still essentially even. The latest high-scoring result does not establish control for either club.
REGRESSIONMIL @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .261 AVG vs .298 xBA
Hoerner's .261 average trails his .298 expected mark, meaning the contact has deserved better results. That makes him an appealing buy-low candidate for a hit or modest total-bases prop.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADTOR @ CLE
Blue Jays are 3-2 vs Guardians this season
Toronto's 3-2 season edge over Cleveland is narrow enough that the latest blowout should not distort the full picture. I need tonight's pitching and lineup matchup to carry the argument.
HEAD-TO-HEADTB @ TEX
Rays are 2-1 vs Rangers this season
Tampa Bay's 2-1 edge over Texas is too thin to drive a wager. The latest one-run finish only reinforces how little has separated these teams.
STARTER FORMTB @ TEX
Cal Quantrill: 1.42 ERA over his last 3 starts
Quantrill has delivered a 1.42 ERA over his last three starts while limiting both baserunners and rallies. Tampa Bay is facing a starter performing well above the version the broader season numbers might suggest.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
TOMORROWARI @ HOU
Cristian Javier: 6.45 ERA vs 5.16 xERA
Javier's 6.45 ERA should improve somewhat toward his 5.16 expected mark, but that expected figure remains poor. Arizona is getting a pitcher due for less-bad results, not necessarily a good performance.
RUNNING GAMEMIA @ KC
Miami Marlins like to run — Carter Jensen (36% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Miami likes to create pressure on the bases, but Jensen's 36 percent caught-stealing rate makes him the wrong catcher to challenge carelessly. One failed attempt could erase a promising rally in a hurry.
P Miami Marlins stole 0 bases
RUNNING GAMETB @ TEX
Tampa Bay Rays like to run — Elias Diaz (37% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Tampa Bay wants to run, but Diaz has thrown out 37 percent of attempted base stealers. The Rays may keep testing him, though every attempt risks giving Texas a free rally-killing out.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 0 bases
TOMORROWTB @ TEX
Nick Martinez: 2.99 ERA vs 4.3 xERA
Martinez's 2.99 ERA has received some help compared with his 4.30 expected mark, even though the quality-of-contact work is legitimately solid. Texas has a chance to see the less flattering version tonight.
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Salvador Perez has disappointed with a .221 average and .640 OPS, so the case for moving on is real. Still, he is batting fourth tonight, and that premium lineup spot earns him a little more patience. HOLD
REGRESSIONTB @ TEX
Jonny DeLuca: .262 AVG vs .235 xBA
DeLuca’s .262 average is running ahead of his .235 xBA, and the production gap looks ripe to tighten. Against Texas, I’m leaning toward a quiet night and his offensive unders.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
FANTASY PICKUPSSF @ PIT
Lake Bachar
Lake Bachar brings a sturdy streaming profile into today: a 3.52 xERA, 3.70 season ERA, 9.2 K/9 and 1.09 WHIP for his matchup with San Francisco. Add him if you need a deep-league starter who can contribute strikeouts without carrying an alarming WHIP.
REGRESSIONSTL @ LAD
Will Smith: .246 AVG vs .275 xBA
Smith’s .246 average undersells the quality of his contact, with a .275 xBA pointing toward better results ahead. I’m buying the rebound against St. Louis and favoring his hitting overs.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTSEA tonight
Cal Raleigh
Raleigh's .172 average is brutal, and the .645 OPS does not fully cover for it. But he is batting fourth and active tonight, which is enough opportunity for me to resist cutting him right now. HOLD
CUT LISTSTL tonight
Jose Fermin
The .661 OPS and .241 average make the cut case easy: Fermin hasn't produced enough over the season. But he's in tonight's lineup and batting first, so I'm giving him one more chance to turn that opportunity into value. HOLD
REGRESSIONSF @ PIT
San Francisco Giants are 12-25 in one-run games (.324 win%)
A 12-25 record in one-run games makes San Francisco look worse than it probably is. I see the Giants as a regression candidate, but the 3-3 season split with Pittsburgh keeps this from being a standalone betting edge tonight.
TOMORROWDET @ CLE
Foster Griffin: 3.21 ERA vs 4.24 xERA
Griffin’s 3.21 ERA looks too clean beside a 4.24 xERA, especially with his hard-hit and barrel rates. Detroit is capable of turning more of that contact into damage, so I’m expecting regression.
TOMORROWTOR @ KC
Daniel Lynch IV: 3.06 ERA vs 4.01 xERA
Daniel Lynch IV’s 3.06 ERA looks fragile next to a 4.01 xERA and the help he has received on balls in play. Toronto has a good chance to make the underlying cracks show tomorrow.
TOMORROWLAA @ PIT
Jared Jones: 4.83 ERA vs 3.84 xERA
Jared Jones’ 4.83 ERA overstates how poorly he has pitched, and I expect some correction against Los Angeles tomorrow. The hard contact keeps me from treating his 3.84 xERA as a promise of a dominant start.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 9/8
Ryne Nelson
Nelson is on Arizona's 60-day IL with an elbow injury. His listed return is five days away, but the 4.97 ERA leaves me unwilling to reserve him on that listing alone. PASS
RETURN WATCHTB — return listed 9/8
Jake Fraley
Fraley is on Tampa Bay's 60-day IL with a groin injury. The listed return is five days away, but a .690 OPS does not earn a season-long stash for me. PASS
FANTASY PICKUPSCHW @ HOU
Isaac Paredes
Isaac Paredes owns a .776 OPS and .257 average, bats third, and gets Luis Castillo tonight with a 4.99 xERA and a struggling label. That lineup spot makes him a strong one-day target. Add him if you need a deep-league third baseman or a hitter for tonight’s matchup.
FANTASY PICKUPSBOS @ BAL
Jake Bennett
Jake Bennett’s 3.18 xERA, 3.27 season ERA and 1.04 WHIP make him the cleanest ratio play of this group, even though his 7.1 K/9 offers less strikeout juice against Baltimore. Add him if protecting ERA and WHIP matters more than chasing strikeouts.
RETURN WATCHSEA — return listed 9/8
Matt Brash
Brash is on Seattle's 60-day IL with a lat injury, carrying a 0.54 ERA and a listed return date five days away. That date is only a roster listing, but this is the easiest hold of the group. STASH
TOMORROWATL @ PHI
Chris Sale: 2.06 ERA vs 2.99 xERA
Chris Sale is due for some upward correction from a 2.06 ERA, but his contact suppression says most of this run is legitimate. Philadelphia is still dealing with an elite starter, not an obvious fade.
RUNNING GAMEMIL @ CHC
Chicago Cubs like to run — William Contreras (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Chicago’s aggression on the bases runs into a real deterrent with William Contreras throwing out 35% of attempted runners. I expect the Cubs to be more dependent on stringing together hits than stealing their way into scoring position.
P Chicago Cubs stole 0 bases
REPLACEMENTCHW @ HOU
Chase Meidroth (.680 vs RHP) replaces Tanner Murray at 2B tonight
Chase Meidroth keeps Chicago’s main lineup structure intact, but batting seventh against Brown limits the benefit. I’m not expecting much production from the lower third in this matchup.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Josh Smith
Josh Smith's .223 average and .630 OPS do not offer enough production for a season-long roster, and batting sixth tonight does not give me a compelling reason to wait for a turnaround. CUT
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 9/9
Lucas Giolito
Giolito is on San Diego's 60-day IL with an elbow injury and a listed return date six days away. A 5.16 ERA makes this a clear pass despite the nearby roster listing. PASS
FANTASY PICKUPSSTL @ LAD
Quinn Mathews
Quinn Mathews has real strikeout appeal at 9.2 K/9, and his 3.32 xERA says there is more here than the 5.03 ERA shows. Still, that 1.58 WHIP makes the Dodgers matchup a high-risk swing. Add him only if you are chasing strikeouts in a deep league and can absorb serious ratio risk.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHW @ HOU
Christian Walker
Christian Walker gets the same favorable look at struggling Luis Castillo and his 4.99 xERA, but Walker’s .726 OPS, .226 average and sixth-place lineup spot make this a more speculative play. Add him if you need a deep-league first baseman and are willing to bet on the matchup over the season line.
HEAD-TO-HEADSF @ PIT
Pirates and Giants are square at 3-3 this season
A 3-3 season split tells me neither Pittsburgh nor San Francisco has established a meaningful matchup advantage. I’m treating the head-to-head record as neutral tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIL @ CHC
Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman still offers 9.0 K/9, while his 3.92 xERA sits below his 4.52 season ERA. The 1.27 WHIP is workable enough to consider him against Milwaukee. Add him if you want strikeout upside and can tolerate some ERA and WHIP volatility.
CUT LISTHOU tonight
Daulton Varsho
The cut case is straightforward: a .228 average and .653 OPS aren’t giving me enough season-long production. Still, Varsho is in tonight’s lineup and batting fifth, so I’m not dumping him before seeing what this opportunity produces. HOLD
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 9/8
Gavin Stone
Stone is on the Dodgers' 60-day IL with a shoulder injury and a listed return date five days away. With no season line available and no guarantee attached to that date, I need an open IL spot to justify waiting. IL-ONLY STASH
FANTASY PICKUPSCHW @ HOU
Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve bats fourth against struggling Luis Castillo and his 4.99 xERA. The lineup position strengthens the case, though Altuve’s .701 OPS and .244 average keep expectations measured. Add him if you need second-base help or a deep-league matchup bat for tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHW @ HOU
Jeremy Pena
Jeremy Pena is my favorite Houston add tonight: he leads off, carries a .810 OPS and .281 average, and faces struggling Luis Castillo with a 4.99 xERA. Add him if you need a shortstop, a deep-league hitter or the best combination here of production, lineup position and matchup.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 9/11
Carter Baumler
Baumler is on Texas' 60-day IL with a rib injury. His 3.18 ERA and listed return date eight days away put him on my watchlist, but not in my stash slot. WATCH
FIRST INNINGSTL @ LAD
STL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
St. Louis has scored in the first inning just once in its last 10 games, and I expect Skubal to extend that quiet stretch. The home run is the Cardinals’ clearest early escape hatch; otherwise, another empty top half is the likelier outcome.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 9/11
Robert Garcia
Garcia is on Texas' 60-day IL with a shoulder injury, holding a 3.38 ERA with a listed return date eight days away. I would watch rather than spend a season-long stash spot. WATCH
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 9/11
Nick Pivetta
Pivetta is on San Diego's 60-day IL with a forearm injury and a listed return date eight days away. With a 4.50 ERA and no promise behind that listing, I am leaving him available. PASS
HEAD-TO-HEADCOLO @ GT
COLO and GT have met once since 2025
The seven-point finish made the only recent meeting competitive, with GT getting it done on the road instead of turning it into a runaway. The main change tonight is the setting: Colorado now has to go to GT after dropping the first matchup at home.

Graded results

Games

W
UAB Blazers +27.5 -118
NCAAF · 23-42
L
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -6.5 -110
NCAAF · 14-13
W
Pittsburgh Pirates ML -166
MLB · 2-5
W
Astros ML -164
MLB · 2-6
L
Guardians ML -108
MLB · 6-3
W
Massachusetts Minutemen +28.5 -105
NCAAF · 37-21
L
Brewers ML -122
MLB · 1-2
W
Red Sox ML -122
MLB · 6-5
W
Kansas City Royals ML -116
MLB · 3-7
W
Texas Rangers ML +112
MLB · 0-6
W
Akron Zips +27.5 -104
NCAAF · 16-38
W
Athletics +1.5 -126
MLB · 7-4
L
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -130
MLB · 2-3

Props

L
Alex Bregman · over
Brewers @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Alika Williams · over
Athletics @ Mariners · Actual 1
W
Blade Tidwell · over
Giants @ Pirates · Actual 15
W
Brandon Young · over
Red Sox @ Orioles · Actual 2
W
Brett Bateman · over
Blue Jays @ Guardians · Actual 3
L
Cal Quantrill · under
Rays @ Rangers · Actual 2
L
Cody Freeman · over
Rays @ Rangers · Actual 0
W
Heriberto Hernandez · over
Marlins @ Royals · Actual 1
W
Jake Bennett · over
Red Sox @ Orioles · Actual 18
L
Jeremy Pena · over
White Sox @ Astros · Actual 0
W
Jordan Walker · over
Cardinals @ Dodgers · Actual 3
L
Joshua Baez · over
Cardinals @ Dodgers · Actual 0
L
Justin Foscue · over
Rays @ Rangers · Actual 0
W
Kevin Gausman · over
Brewers @ Cubs · Actual 5
L
Kyle Isbel · under
Marlins @ Royals · Actual 4
W
Lake Bachar · over
Giants @ Pirates · Actual 7
W
Logan Henderson · under
Brewers @ Cubs · Actual 2
W
Luis Castillo · under
White Sox @ Astros · Actual 3
W
Michael Stefanic · over
Athletics @ Mariners · Actual 1
L
Mickey Gasper · over
Red Sox @ Orioles · Actual 0
W
Nathan Church · over
Cardinals @ Dodgers · Actual 1
L
Randy Arozarena · over
Athletics @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Sandy Alcantara · over
Marlins @ Royals · Actual 18