Sports picks for Thursday, September 3, 2026

8 stored items

The stored Gary board for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB12:35 PM

Giants @ Pirates

I keep coming back to who's actually standing on the mound for San Francisco. Blade Tidwell has five starts on his record this season and his team has lost all five. Over his last three he's given up 12 earned runs in 15 innings with 8 walks, and his most recent outing was the worst of his career — three home runs and six earned to Arizona. His whiff rate has come in at 12% in two of his last three starts, and the sweeper he throws more than a third of the time got punished last time out. He puts the ball in the air more than he keeps it down, and today it's 83 degrees at PNC with the wind blowing out to left. The split is what seals it. Left-handed hitters have hit .292 with an .893 OPS and four homers off him; right-handers .182 with a .472 OPS. Pittsburgh's card today is Horwitz, Lowe, Cruz and Jacob Gonzalez from the left side plus Reynolds and Mangum switching. The Pirates are 54-42 against right-handed starters this season and 14-30 against lefties — this is the schedule slot they handle. Lowe carries a .900 OPS with 23 homers against righties, Gonzales .332 with an .830, Cruz an .842 OPS overall. And this specific nine is 25-for-69 in the series and 48-for-157 over the last week, with Gonzales, Cruz and Lowe all in the middle of hot stretches. Yes, Pittsburgh is running a bullpen game, and normally I'd fade that. Not this one. Lake Bachar opens on his eighth such assignment and has allowed two earned runs over his last 9.2 innings, with a curveball generating a 36.6% whiff rate and a .160 xwOBA. Behind him, this relief corps has been the strength of the roster — a 3.12 ERA over the last ten days across 34.2 innings — with Yates, Soto, Weaver, Montgomery and Ramírez all having sat two to four days. Montgomery hasn't allowed a run since late July. Weaver sits at a 2.58 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP. Dotel was brought up this morning for length. More to the point, a parade of arms is exactly the right format against this Giants lineup. Devers is genuinely locked in and I'm not pretending otherwise — .421 over a 10-game hit streak, 32 homers, homers in three straight. But he never sees the same pitcher twice today, and Pittsburgh already showed last night it will just walk him with the game on the line. Behind Devers and Eldridge, San Francisco is running out Whitcomb at a .454 OPS, Furman at .462, Koss at .510, Knizner on 27 at-bats, and Gilbert leading off at 1-for-14 over the past week. That's a lot of outs available. And the other bullpen is in worse shape, not better. San Francisco used five arms yesterday, Seymour on back-to-back days, with Perdomo having thrown 58 pitches Tuesday and Roxby 31. Their unit is at a 4.61 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP on the year and no set closer. Underneath it, the fundamentals line up the same direction: Pittsburgh at +26 run differential, San Francisco at -70. Pirates 22-17 in one-run games, Giants 12-25. Pittsburgh is 39-32 after a loss. Home team, day game, and the Giants are on the fourth game of a road trip with a flight to New York waiting. The Pirates offense outside that nine-run inning has been thin — 2.6 runs a game over the other nine of their last ten — and that's the honest risk here. But the price at -166 is asking for about 60% and I think the pitching matchup alone gets there. I'll lay it.

Pittsburgh Pirates ML-166

CONF

61%

MLB1:10 PM

Blue Jays @ Guardians

At an even price, I prefer Cleveland’s path from the starter through the late innings. Tanner Bibee has allowed six earned runs over 18.0 innings across his last three starts, all three of which lasted 6.0 innings. José Soriano has allowed 11 earned runs in 17.2 innings over his last three, although his latest start—7.0 innings and three earned runs—shows this is only a modest starting-pitching edge. Cleveland’s left- and switch-heavy lineup also gets the more favorable side of Soriano’s platoon split; he has allowed a .702 OPS to left-handed hitters versus .573 to right-handed hitters. Toronto can counter with six left-handed bats against Bibee, who has allowed a .736 OPS and 20 home runs to lefties, but the Blue Jays are sitting George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Kazuma Okamoto and Myles Straw. Cleveland is also resting Angel Martínez and Patrick Bailey, so I am not treating the lineup angle as overwhelming. The separator is Cleveland’s pitching depth. Its active bullpen carries a 3.15 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, compared with Toronto’s 4.30 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, and Cleveland’s principal late-inning arms are available. Toronto has rested leverage options of its own, but Bibee’s recent stability and the stronger overall bullpen give the Guardians the slightly cleaner route at the same price.

Guardians ML-108

CONF

56%

MLB2:10 PM

White Sox @ Astros

Hunter Brown is the separator I’m willing to pay for. His last three starts produced 17.1 innings, four earned runs and 19 strikeouts. Luis Castillo’s last three produced 11.1 innings, 11 earned runs and five strikeouts, and he failed to complete five innings in each one. Brown’s nine walks over that stretch are the concern, but his latest start brought 6.2 innings, one earned run, 10 strikeouts and one walk. The matchup evidence supports that advantage. Castillo has a 10.00 ERA in two starts against Houston this season, while Yordan Alvarez is 11-for-21 with four home runs against him. Brown held Chicago scoreless in his provided start against the White Sox. Those samples are not decisive by themselves, but they point in the same direction as the pitchers’ current form. Chicago’s bullpen is the primary risk to this bet, but Castillo’s recent lack of length could force it to cover substantial innings, and Sean Newcomb threw 41 pitches yesterday. Houston has Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert and Enyel De Los Santos available after none pitched since August 31, with Josh Hader carrying a 0.72 season ERA behind them. I’m laying the price because Houston has the better chance to control the game from Brown through its late-inning arms.

Astros ML-164

CONF

64%

Player props

MLB · Giants @ Pirates

Lake Bachar

This is a job-description bet. Bachar is opening his eighth game of the year for Pittsburgh, and the assignment has been consistent: two innings, sometimes a third, 28 to 52 pitches, then hand it off. Look at the outs column across his seven starts — 7, 6, 9, 4, 6, 9, 8. Six of seven clear this number, and the one miss was back on June 19, before the trade, before this role got defined. The last three times out he's gone 3.0, 2.0 and 2.1 innings and given up two earned runs total across 9.2 frames.

OVER 5.5 Pitcher Outs-190

MLB · Giants @ Pirates

Blade Tidwell

Fifteen outs. That's all this asks — five complete innings from Tidwell. And here's the thing about his season: he has reached exactly that mark in four of five starts. His innings line reads 5.0, 5.2, 4.1, 5.2, 5.0. Outs: 15, 17, 13, 17, 15. The only miss was the Colorado start where he walked five and got pulled in the fifth. Even in his career-worst outing — three home runs and six earned runs to Arizona last Friday — he was left out there for exactly five innings and 100 pitches. That tells you something about how this staff treats him. He's a 25-year-old they've publicly said is being developed for the 2027 rotation, and his pitch counts back it up: 100, 93, 63, 96, 100. They let him wear it.

OVER 14.5 Pitcher Outs-148

MLB · Blue Jays @ Guardians

Brett Bateman

Bateman has recorded a single in 10 of his last 15 games and averages one per game through his first 21 appearances. His profile fits this market: 21 of his 27 hits have been singles, and the leadoff spot should give him four or five opportunities against Tanner Bibee and the Cleveland bullpen. Bateman has cooled slightly in this series, but his contact-oriented approach gives me enough at this number.

OVER 0.5 Singles-140

MLB · White Sox @ Astros

Luis Castillo

Castillo has stayed under this number in six of his last eight starts, with only five strikeouts across his last three. He has also failed to complete five innings in three straight, shrinking his opportunity to reach five punchouts. Houston strikes out in only 20% of its plate appearances against right-handers, and every hitter in the confirmed lineup owns a season strikeout rate below Castillo's recent opponents collectively. The price is playable because both the matchup and his short-start trend point toward another limited strikeout total.

UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts-133

MLB HR · White Sox @ Astros

Jeremy Pena

This is the long shot I want against a starter who has allowed 14 home runs over his last eight outings and multiple homers in six of those starts. Pena has gone deep four times in his last 15 games, owns 17 homers in 89 games and gets the maximum plate-appearance upside from the leadoff spot. He is also 7-for-23 against Castillo. The short left-field dimensions suit Pena's right-handed power, and +610 is enough return to take the swing.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+610