Sports picks for Wednesday, September 2, 2026

118 stored items

The stored Gary board for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

2
MLB12:40 PM

Padres @ Reds

It is a hot getaway afternoon at Great American Ball Park—91°F, with a 6 mph wind out to left—and Cincinnati is asking Brandon Williamson to make his first major-league start since April 29. In a park that can magnify mistakes, I want the club with the cleaner route from starter to closer. That route belongs to San Diego. Casey Mize carries a 3.45 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 109.2 IP, while Williamson returns with a 6.11 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over 28.0 IP, with 20 walks against 19 strikeouts. Mize has not been automatic—his August ERA is 6.26—but his latest start was 5.0 IP with 2 ER, and his broader body of work is sturdier. The bullpen is the separator. San Diego’s relief corps has a 2.51 ERA over the last 10 days; Cincinnati’s is at 6.68. No reliever on either club worked both of the last two days, and Padres closer Mason Miller did not pitch in either Cincinnati game. Cincinnati’s current lineup is the danger: today’s nine hit .288 with 9 HR over the last seven days, versus .235 and 4 HR for San Diego. That keeps me off Padres -1.5. At -154, I only need San Diego to win, and the better starter baseline plus the much stronger relief profile is enough for me to pay the moneyline.

Padres ML-154
CONF
64%
MLB1:05 PM

Braves @ Nationals

An 87-degree getaway afternoon at Nationals Park finds Washington riding two straight wins while Atlanta tries to halt a two-game slide. The pitching structure is the separator. Grant Holmes has made 25 starts with a 3.71 ERA and a 2.98 road ERA. Brad Lord has made four starts, with innings totals of 2.1, 2.2, 0.2 and 2.2. Washington has used him as a short-start option, making extensive bullpen exposure likely. That favors Atlanta decisively. Washington’s bullpen has a 6.95 ERA over the last five days and a 6.90 ERA over the last 10; Atlanta’s corresponding marks are 3.44 and 3.07. Among tonight’s available arms, Atlanta owns a 2.58 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, compared with Washington’s 4.63 and 1.46. I am staying with the moneyline because Washington carries real offensive danger. The Nationals have scored 5.5 runs per game over their last 10, compared with Atlanta’s 3.5, and James Wood returns to their lineup. Holmes also has a 5.52 ERA over his last three starts and a 4.66 ERA in two starts against Washington. Those risks make laying 1.5 runs too ambitious, but Atlanta’s advantage in expected starter length and relief quality is enough for me to back the Braves to win.

Braves ML-146
CONF
62%

Player props

4
MLB · Padres @ Reds

Brandon Williamson

I’m attacking Williamson’s control in his first major-league start since April 29. He issued 20 walks in 28 innings and reached at least three in four of his six starts, including each of his final four before the layoff.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Walks+134
MLB · Padres @ Reds

Sal Stewart

Stewart has cleared this line in 10 of his last 15 games while batting .345 with five homers over that stretch. He is hitting third, owns 31 homers and 105 RBIs, and enters after collecting three hits in the first two games of this series.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-127
MLB · Braves @ Nationals

Michael Harris II

Harris has exceeded 1.5 total bases in nine of his last 15 games, batting .370 with four homers in that span, and he has gone deep in consecutive games. He is also 3-for-9 with a homer against Lord. Lord has not completed three innings in any of his four starts, which should give Harris additional looks at a Washington bullpen carrying an 8.02 ERA over the last seven days. Even money is a favorable price on the hottest power bat in Atlanta's lineup.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+100
MLB · Braves @ Nationals

Grant Holmes

Holmes has allowed at least five hits in six of his last eight starts, including eight against Colorado his last time out. Washington collected five hits in 4.2 innings against him on July 30 and now brings back James Wood to a lineup batting .273 over the last seven days. Holmes' 43.2% hard-hit rate also leaves room for damage beyond his excellent slider. I only need five hits before Atlanta turns to its bullpen.

OVER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed-120

Hub research

112