Brewers at Cubs

I’m laying the moneyline because Milwaukee has the decisive starting-pitching advantage. Jacob Misiorowski enters with a 1.73 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 222 strikeouts against 35 walks over 151.0 innings. His last three starts produced a 1.50 ERA over 18.0 innings, and he has a 0.75 ERA with Milwaukee going 2-0 in his two starts against Chicago this season.

David Peterson deserves respect for his 2.83 ERA in August, but right-handed hitters have produced a .289 average and .786 OPS against him. Milwaukee starts six right-handed hitters and is 29-13 against left-handed starters. Tonight’s Brewers lineup is also hitting .315 with eight home runs over the last seven days.

The bullpen separation completes the case. Milwaukee’s relief group has a 3.40 ERA over the last 10 days, while Chicago’s has a 6.32 ERA. The Cubs have allowed 17 earned runs in 20.2 relief innings over the last seven days, while Milwaukee has Trevor Megill available after he last pitched on August 29. Chicago’s lineup hitting .320 with 15 home runs over the last seven days is the clear risk, but Misiorowski is the right starter to confront that power. With the price down from -162 to -148, Milwaukee’s advantages in the rotation matchup and late innings are strong enough for me to lay it.