Padres at Reds
O/U 9.5 · RL Padres -1.5 · Great American Ball Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Padres ML -154
- Published odds
- -154
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 3-7
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANDUEL · 21 moves| Market | Opened Sep 2 10:42 AM | Close Sep 2 3:40 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Reds +1.5 (-130) | Reds -3.5 (-3500) | +2 |
| MONEYLINE | Reds +130 | Reds -50000 | −50130 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 2 10:42 AM | Reds +1.5 (-130) | — | Reds +130 · Padres -154 |
| Sep 2 11:35 AM | Reds +1.5 (-128) | — | Reds +130 · Padres -154 |
| Sep 2 11:53 AM | Reds +1.5 (-126) | — | Reds +132 · Padres -156 |
| Sep 2 12:35 PM | Reds +1.5 (-120) | — | Reds +138 · Padres -164 |
| Sep 2 12:46 PM | Reds +1.5 (-146) | — | Reds +122 · Padres -156 |
| Sep 2 12:49 PM | Reds +2.5 (-106) | — | Reds +250 · Padres -340 |
| Sep 2 1:05 PM | Reds +3.5 (-108) | — | Reds +400 · Padres -620 |
| Sep 2 1:12 PM | Reds +3.5 (-130) | — | Reds +360 · Padres -530 |
| Sep 2 1:29 PM | Reds -1.5 (+182) | — | Reds -122 · Padres -104 |
| Sep 2 1:32 PM | Reds -1.5 (+152) | — | Reds -150 · Padres +118 |
| Sep 2 1:40 PM | Reds -1.5 (+162) | — | Reds -148 · Padres +116 |
| Sep 2 1:47 PM | Reds -1.5 (+174) | — | Reds -142 · Padres +112 |
| Sep 2 1:49 PM | Reds -1.5 (+148) | — | Reds -170 · Padres +132 |
| Sep 2 2:10 PM | Reds -1.5 (+198) | — | Reds -162 · Padres +126 |
| Sep 2 2:18 PM | Reds -1.5 (+250) | — | Reds -120 · Padres -106 |
| Sep 2 2:23 PM | Reds -1.5 (+198) | — | Reds -172 · Padres +134 |
| Sep 2 2:40 PM | Reds -1.5 (-158) | — | Reds -480 · Padres +330 |
| Sep 2 2:48 PM | Reds -1.5 (-122) | — | Reds -390 · Padres +280 |
| Sep 2 2:55 PM | Reds -1.5 (-192) | — | Reds -700 · Padres +440 |
| Sep 2 3:09 PM | Reds -3.5 (-162) | — | Reds -5000 · Padres +1300 |
| Sep 2 3:10 PM | Reds -3.5 (-138) | — | Reds -4000 · Padres +1100 |
| CLOSESep 2 3:40 PM | Reds -3.5 (-3500) | — | Reds -50000 · Padres +3500 |
The read
It is a hot getaway afternoon at Great American Ball Park—91°F, with a 6 mph wind out to left—and Cincinnati is asking Brandon Williamson to make his first major-league start since April 29. In a park that can magnify mistakes, I want the club with the cleaner route from starter to closer.
That route belongs to San Diego. Casey Mize carries a 3.45 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 109.2 IP, while Williamson returns with a 6.11 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over 28.0 IP, with 20 walks against 19 strikeouts. Mize has not been automatic—his August ERA is 6.26—but his latest start was 5.0 IP with 2 ER, and his broader body of work is sturdier.
The bullpen is the separator. San Diego’s relief corps has a 2.51 ERA over the last 10 days; Cincinnati’s is at 6.68. No reliever on either club worked both of the last two days, and Padres closer Mason Miller did not pitch in either Cincinnati game.
Cincinnati’s current lineup is the danger: today’s nine hit .288 with 9 HR over the last seven days, versus .235 and 4 HR for San Diego. That keeps me off Padres -1.5. At -154, I only need San Diego to win, and the better starter baseline plus the much stronger relief profile is enough for me to pay the moneyline.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Fernando Tatis Jr. (bats R) draws Brandon Williamson (LHP), batting 1st
.979Fernando Tatis Jr. gets his preferred matchup against a left-hander and leads off, guaranteeing immediate opportunity. I expect him to put pressure on Brandon Williamson from the opening inning.
Tyler Stephenson (bats R) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
.787Tyler Stephenson’s reverse split makes the right-handed matchup work in his favor. From the fifth spot, he is well positioned to punish Casey Mize if Cincinnati’s top hitters create traffic.
FIRST INNING
SD have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10San Diego has scored in the first inning just once in its last 10, and Mize gives that drought a good chance to continue. Cincinnati’s half is the main NRFI danger, but a clean opening would point toward a controlled start.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Padres are 4-3 vs Reds this season
4-3San Diego’s 4-3 season edge over Cincinnati tells me this matchup has been essentially even. The Reds’ home field carries more weight tonight than that one-game difference.
Reds and Padres are square at 4-4 this season
4-4An even 4-4 season series says Cincinnati and San Diego have traded control rather than established an edge. I’m not treating the latest Reds win or tonight’s venue as a decisive separator.
REGRESSION
Samad Taylor: .344 AVG vs .279 xBA
.279Samad Taylor’s .344 average has outrun his .279 expected mark, pointing toward cooling production. I see him as a sell-high candidate against Cincinnati tonight.
Ty France: .288 AVG vs .250 xBA
.250Ty France’s .288 average has run meaningfully above his .250 expected mark over a substantial sample. I’m looking for cooling results and staying away from his hitting overs tonight.
CLOSER WATCH
Mason Miller
32 SVThis is the cleanest live save spot of the group: San Diego is favored at -154, Mason Miller is fully rested after one outing in the last three games, and his 32 saves make this a non-committee ninth inning. Start Miller with confidence. Jason Adam’s two saves and 17 holds do not make him the saves-chasing play this week.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Jackson Merrill
.717 OPSMerrill gets Brandon Williamson and his struggling 6.81 xERA while batting third. That premium lineup spot makes the .243 hitter a strong one-night volume play. Stream him if you need an outfielder with a favorable matchup and run-production opportunity.
Luis Campusano
.847 OPSCampusano’s .285 average and .847 OPS stand out, and he draws struggling Brandon Williamson. Batting eighth lowers the plate-appearance ceiling, but the production and matchup still play. Stream him when you value batting average and matchup quality more than lineup position.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
.798 OPSTatis combines a .282 average and .798 OPS with the leadoff spot against struggling Brandon Williamson and his 6.81 xERA. That is exactly the kind of setup I want to chase today. Add him immediately in any league where he is available; he’s the top hitter stream here.
Casey Mize
3.5 xERAMize brings a steady 3.45 ERA, matching 3.50 xERA and useful 1.10 WHIP into Cincinnati. The 7.9 K/9 limits the ceiling, but the foundation is solid. A deep-league add for managers prioritizing ratios over a big strikeout total.
CUT LIST
Brandon Williamson
6.81 xERAWilliamson has given you no safety in either column: a 6.11 ERA backed by a brutal 6.81 xERA. Starting tonight only creates another opportunity for roster damage. Cut
Xander Bogaerts
0.638 OPSBogaerts is batting just .216 with a .638 OPS, and hitting fifth tonight does not outweigh that season-long production. I’m done waiting for the bat to justify the roster spot. CUT
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 2, 2026 at 11:13 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKBRANDON WILLIAMSONPITCHER WALKS OVER 2.5
I’m attacking Williamson’s control in his first major-league start since April 29. He issued 20 walks in 28 innings and reached at least three in four of his six starts, including each of his final four before the layoff.
San Diego gives him a right-handed-heavy lineup with several patient hitters, and the heat at Great American Ball Park leaves little margin for pitching around traffic. An early hook is the risk, but three walks can come quickly with this profile. The plus-money price makes that risk worth taking.
- GARY'S PICKSAL STEWARTH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
Stewart has cleared this line in 10 of his last 15 games while batting .345 with five homers over that stretch. He is hitting third, owns 31 homers and 105 RBIs, and enters after collecting three hits in the first two games of this series.
Mize has been substantially more vulnerable to right-handed hitters, allowing them a .790 OPS with eight homers in 174 at-bats. His August ERA is 6.26, and the hot conditions with the wind blowing toward left field favor Stewart’s power. One productive trip through the heart of the order can cash this.
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