MLB · Thu, Sep 3 · 12:35 PM

Giants at Pirates

O/U 8.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Giants· -166

I keep coming back to who's actually standing on the mound for San Francisco. Blade Tidwell has five starts on his record this season and his team has lost all five. Over his last three he's given up 12 earned runs in 15 innings with 8 walks, and his most recent outing was the worst of his career — three home runs and six earned to Arizona. His whiff rate has come in at 12% in two of his last three starts, and the sweeper he throws more than a third of the time got punished last time out. He puts the ball in the air more than he keeps it down, and today it's 83 degrees at PNC with the wind blowing out to left. The split is what seals it. Left-handed hitters have hit .292 with an .893 OPS and four homers off him; right-handers .182 with a .472 OPS. Pittsburgh's card today is Horwitz, Lowe, Cruz and Jacob Gonzalez from the left side plus Reynolds and Mangum switching. The Pirates are 54-42 against right-handed starters this season and 14-30 against lefties — this is the schedule slot they handle. Lowe carries a .900 OPS with 23 homers against righties, Gonzales .332 with an .830, Cruz an .842 OPS overall. And this specific nine is 25-for-69 in the series and 48-for-157 over the last week, with Gonzales, Cruz and Lowe all in the middle of hot stretches. Yes, Pittsburgh is running a bullpen game, and normally I'd fade that. Not this one. Lake Bachar opens on his eighth such assignment and has allowed two earned runs over his last 9.2 innings, with a curveball generating a 36.6% whiff rate and a .160 xwOBA. Behind him, this relief corps has been the strength of the roster — a 3.12 ERA over the last ten days across 34.2 innings — with Yates, Soto, Weaver, Montgomery and Ramírez all having sat two to four days. Montgomery hasn't allowed a run since late July. Weaver sits at a 2.58 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP. Dotel was brought up this morning for length. More to the point, a parade of arms is exactly the right format against this Giants lineup. Devers is genuinely locked in and I'm not pretending otherwise — .421 over a 10-game hit streak, 32 homers, homers in three straight. But he never sees the same pitcher twice today, and Pittsburgh already showed last night it will just walk him with the game on the line. Behind Devers and Eldridge, San Francisco is running out Whitcomb at a .454 OPS, Furman at .462, Koss at .510, Knizner on 27 at-bats, and Gilbert leading off at 1-for-14 over the past week. That's a lot of outs available. And the other bullpen is in worse shape, not better. San Francisco used five arms yesterday, Seymour on back-to-back days, with Perdomo having thrown 58 pitches Tuesday and Roxby 31. Their unit is at a 4.61 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP on the year and no set closer. Underneath it, the fundamentals line up the same direction: Pittsburgh at +26 run differential, San Francisco at -70. Pirates 22-17 in one-run games, Giants 12-25. Pittsburgh is 39-32 after a loss. Home team, day game, and the Giants are on the fourth game of a road trip with a flight to New York waiting. The Pirates offense outside that nine-run inning has been thin — 2.6 runs a game over the other nine of their last ten — and that's the honest risk here. But the price at -166 is asking for about 60% and I think the pitching matchup alone gets there. I'll lay it.

Yes, Pittsburgh is running a bullpen game, and normally I'd fade that. Not this one. Lake Bachar opens on his eighth such assignment and has allowed two earned runs over his last 9.2 innings, with a curveball generating a 36.6% whiff rate and a .160 xwOBA. Behind him, this relief corps has been the strength of the roster — a 3.12 ERA over the last ten days across 34.2 innings — with Yates, Soto, Weaver, Montgomery and Ramírez all having sat two to four days. Montgomery hasn't allowed a run since late July. Weaver sits at a 2.58 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP. Dotel was brought up this morning for length. More to the point, a parade of arms is exactly the right format against this Giants lineup. Devers is genuinely locked in and I'm not pretending otherwise — .421 over a 10-game hit streak, 32 homers, homers in three straight. But he never sees the same pitcher twice today, and Pittsburgh already showed last night it will just walk him with the game on the line. Behind Devers and Eldridge, San Francisco is running out Whitcomb at a .454 OPS, Furman at .462, Koss at .510, Knizner on 27 at-bats, and Gilbert leading off at 1-for-14 over the past week.

That's a lot of outs available. And the other bullpen is in worse shape, not better. San Francisco used five arms yesterday, Seymour on back-to-back days, with Perdomo having thrown 58 pitches Tuesday and Roxby 31. Their unit is at a 4.61 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP on the year and no set closer. Underneath it, the fundamentals line up the same direction: Pittsburgh at +26 run differential, San Francisco at -70. Pirates 22-17 in one-run games, Giants 12-25. Pittsburgh is 39-32 after a loss. Home team, day game, and the Giants are on the fourth game of a road trip with a flight to New York waiting. The Pirates offense outside that nine-run inning has been thin — 2.6 runs a game over the other nine of their last ten — and that's the honest risk here. But the price at -166 is asking for about 60% and I think the pitching matchup alone gets there. I'll lay it.

The pick & result

Published pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML -166
Published odds: -166
Result: Won
Final score: 2-5

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETRIVERS · 6 moves

Market	Opened Sep 3 11:33 AM	Close Sep 3 4:07 PM	Move
SPREAD	Pirates -1.5 (+110)	Pirates -2.5 (-1430)	+1
MONEYLINE	Pirates -190	Pirates -10000	−9810

Every move, in order ›

When	Spread	Total	Moneyline
OPENSep 3 11:33 AM	Pirates -1.5 (+110)	—	Pirates -190 · Giants +155
Sep 3 11:40 AM	Pirates -1.5 (+110)	—	Pirates -186 · Giants +155
Sep 3 11:51 AM	Pirates -1.5 (+110)	—	Pirates -182 · Giants +155
Sep 3 11:54 AM	Pirates -1.5 (+116)	—	Pirates -175 · Giants +145
Sep 3 12:55 PM	Pirates -1.5 (-110)	—	Pirates -250 · Giants +170
Sep 3 1:42 PM	Pirates -2.5 (-117)	—	Pirates -625 · Giants +360
CLOSESep 3 4:07 PM	Pirates -2.5 (-1430)	—	Pirates -10000 · Giants +900

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

PLATOON EDGE

Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Lake Bachar (RHP), batting 1st
.787
Gilbert gets the platoon edge against Bachar and leads off, so he should see maximum opportunity from the jump. I like his chances to create immediate traffic for San Francisco.
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
.996
Devers gets a right-hander while occupying the two-hole, an excellent combination for both volume and run production. Bachar cannot afford many mistakes against a bat this dangerous.

HEAT CHECK

Rafael Devers: 1.242 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.242
Devers has posted a 1.242 OPS over the last 15 days across enough plate appearances for me to respect the form. His established power gives that surge real teeth against Pittsburgh.

COOLING OFF

Spencer Horwitz: .374 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Blade Tidwell
.374
Horwitz's .374 OPS over the last 15 days makes the slump impossible to ignore. Still, his larger body of work against right-handers makes Tidwell a sensible opponent for a return toward normal.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Pirates and Giants are square at 3-3 this season
3-3
A 3-3 season split tells me neither Pittsburgh nor San Francisco has established a meaningful matchup advantage. I’m treating the head-to-head record as neutral tonight.

REPLACEMENT

Harrison Bader (CF) is out for SF — Jonah Cox starts in his place tonight
.879
Cox replaces Bader in center and steps directly into San Francisco's cleanup spot. That creates immediate RBI opportunity, but it also asks a new lineup piece to handle a central offensive role.

REGRESSION

Jake Mangum: .286 AVG vs .245 xBA
.245
Mangum's .286 average is running ahead of his .245 expected mark, suggesting too many balls have found grass. I see him as a sell-high option, particularly in hit-based markets.
San Francisco Giants are 12-25 in one-run games (.324 win%)
12-25
A 12-25 record in one-run games makes San Francisco look worse than it probably is. I see the Giants as a regression candidate, but the 3-3 season split with Pittsburgh keeps this from being a standalone betting edge tonight.

FANTASY PICKUPS

Lake Bachar
3.52 xERA
Lake Bachar brings a sturdy streaming profile into today: a 3.52 xERA, 3.70 season ERA, 9.2 K/9 and 1.09 WHIP for his matchup with San Francisco. Add him if you need a deep-league starter who can contribute strikeouts without carrying an alarming WHIP.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored September 3, 2026 at 11:09 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, draftkings, caesars.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
LAKE BACHARPITCHER OUTS OVER 5.5
MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -190
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 7
This is a job-description bet. Bachar is opening his eighth game of the year for Pittsburgh, and the assignment has been consistent: two innings, sometimes a third, 28 to 52 pitches, then hand it off. Look at the outs column across his seven starts — 7, 6, 9, 4, 6, 9, 8. Six of seven clear this number, and the one miss was back on June 19, before the trade, before this role got defined. The last three times out he's gone 3.0, 2.0 and 2.1 innings and given up two earned runs total across 9.2 frames. What pushes me further is the shape of Pittsburgh's staff today. Carmen Mlodzinski was the bulk arm behind Bachar in the last bullpen game, but he threw 30 pitches yesterday and has never once worked back-to-back days — 0 for 18 following outings of 25-plus pitches. He isn't coming in early. Wilber Dotel got recalled this morning specifically because somebody has to eat innings, and Dotel averages 32 pitches an outing. Nobody in that room is in a hurry to see Bachar hand it over after four outs. If anything, the length shortage argues he stretches. His stuff also plays for a short burst. The curveball has a 36.6 percent whiff rate and a .160 xwOBA, the slider 31.9 percent, the sweeper 36.4. Lefties are hitting .212 off him and righties .167. And the lineup he's facing is thin behind Devers and Eldridge — Whitcomb at a .454 OPS, Furman at .462, Koss at .510, Knizner on 27 at-bats all year. That's a group that lets an opener churn through six outs without needing 40 pitches. The honest risk: an opener who gets hit early can get yanked mid-second, and Devers has homered in three straight games. But two full innings is the plan, and openers almost always get their two. The price at -190 is steep and it caps how much I love it. The role is clear enough that I'll still pay it.
Lake Bachar
Pitcher Outs over 5.5
-190 · CASHED · ACTUAL 7
Pittsburgh Pirates
This is a job-description bet. Bachar is opening his eighth game of the year for Pittsburgh, and the assignment has been consistent: two innings, sometimes a third, 28 to 52 pitches, then hand it off. Look at the outs column across his seven starts — 7, 6, 9, 4, 6, 9, 8. Six of seven clear this number, and the one miss was back on June 19, before the trade, before this role got defined. The last three times out he's gone 3.0, 2.0 and 2.1 innings and given up two earned runs total across 9.2 frames.
What pushes me further is the shape of Pittsburgh's staff today. Carmen Mlodzinski was the bulk arm behind Bachar in the last bullpen game, but he threw 30 pitches yesterday and has never once worked back-to-back days — 0 for 18 following outings of 25-plus pitches. He isn't coming in early. Wilber Dotel got recalled this morning specifically because somebody has to eat innings, and Dotel averages 32 pitches an outing. Nobody in that room is in a hurry to see Bachar hand it over after four outs. If anything, the length shortage argues he stretches.
His stuff also plays for a short burst. The curveball has a 36.6 percent whiff rate and a .160 xwOBA, the slider 31.9 percent, the sweeper 36.4. Lefties are hitting .212 off him and righties .167. And the lineup he's facing is thin behind Devers and Eldridge — Whitcomb at a .454 OPS, Furman at .462, Koss at .510, Knizner on 27 at-bats all year. That's a group that lets an opener churn through six outs without needing 40 pitches.
The honest risk: an opener who gets hit early can get yanked mid-second, and Devers has homered in three straight games. But two full innings is the plan, and openers almost always get their two. The price at -190 is steep and it caps how much I love it. The role is clear enough that I'll still pay it.
GARY'S PICK
BLADE TIDWELLPITCHER OUTS OVER 14.5
MLBSan Francisco Giants· -148
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 15
Fifteen outs. That's all this asks — five complete innings from Tidwell. And here's the thing about his season: he has reached exactly that mark in four of five starts. His innings line reads 5.0, 5.2, 4.1, 5.2, 5.0. Outs: 15, 17, 13, 17, 15. The only miss was the Colorado start where he walked five and got pulled in the fifth. Even in his career-worst outing — three home runs and six earned runs to Arizona last Friday — he was left out there for exactly five innings and 100 pitches. That tells you something about how this staff treats him. He's a 25-year-old they've publicly said is being developed for the 2027 rotation, and his pitch counts back it up: 100, 93, 63, 96, 100. They let him wear it. The bullpen situation makes the leash even longer today. San Francisco burned five arms yesterday in a ten-inning game. Seymour has worked back-to-back days and thrown 34 pitches over two. Sanmartin, Walker, Foley and Smith all pitched Wednesday. Perdomo threw 58 pitches Tuesday in his major league debut, Roxby 31. Harris has never worked on consecutive days. This is a club with a game tomorrow in New York and a relief corps that has covered 31 innings in seven days. Vitello needs length, not a hook. I'm not pretending Tidwell is good right now. His whiff rate has been 12 percent in two of the last three, left-handed hitters have a .893 OPS and four homers off him, and Pittsburgh runs five lefties plus two switch-hitters at him with the wind blowing out to left. That's the case against. But blowing up and getting fifteen outs are not mutually exclusive for this pitcher — he proved that against Arizona. The mechanism that beats this bet is a walk-fueled meltdown like the Rockies game, not simply giving up runs. Five innings from a young starter whose team can't afford to go to the pen early. I'll take the outs.
Blade Tidwell
Pitcher Outs over 14.5
-148 · CASHED · ACTUAL 15
San Francisco Giants
Fifteen outs. That's all this asks — five complete innings from Tidwell. And here's the thing about his season: he has reached exactly that mark in four of five starts. His innings line reads 5.0, 5.2, 4.1, 5.2, 5.0. Outs: 15, 17, 13, 17, 15. The only miss was the Colorado start where he walked five and got pulled in the fifth. Even in his career-worst outing — three home runs and six earned runs to Arizona last Friday — he was left out there for exactly five innings and 100 pitches. That tells you something about how this staff treats him. He's a 25-year-old they've publicly said is being developed for the 2027 rotation, and his pitch counts back it up: 100, 93, 63, 96, 100. They let him wear it.
The bullpen situation makes the leash even longer today. San Francisco burned five arms yesterday in a ten-inning game. Seymour has worked back-to-back days and thrown 34 pitches over two. Sanmartin, Walker, Foley and Smith all pitched Wednesday. Perdomo threw 58 pitches Tuesday in his major league debut, Roxby 31. Harris has never worked on consecutive days. This is a club with a game tomorrow in New York and a relief corps that has covered 31 innings in seven days. Vitello needs length, not a hook.
I'm not pretending Tidwell is good right now. His whiff rate has been 12 percent in two of the last three, left-handed hitters have a .893 OPS and four homers off him, and Pittsburgh runs five lefties plus two switch-hitters at him with the wind blowing out to left. That's the case against. But blowing up and getting fifteen outs are not mutually exclusive for this pitcher — he proved that against Arizona. The mechanism that beats this bet is a walk-fueled meltdown like the Rockies game, not simply giving up runs.
Five innings from a young starter whose team can't afford to go to the pen early. I'll take the outs.

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