Blue Jays at Guardians

At an even price, I prefer Cleveland’s path from the starter through the late innings. Tanner Bibee has allowed six earned runs over 18.0 innings across his last three starts, all three of which lasted 6.0 innings. José Soriano has allowed 11 earned runs in 17.2 innings over his last three, although his latest start—7.0 innings and three earned runs—shows this is only a modest starting-pitching edge.

Cleveland’s left- and switch-heavy lineup also gets the more favorable side of Soriano’s platoon split; he has allowed a .702 OPS to left-handed hitters versus .573 to right-handed hitters. Toronto can counter with six left-handed bats against Bibee, who has allowed a .736 OPS and 20 home runs to lefties, but the Blue Jays are sitting George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Kazuma Okamoto and Myles Straw. Cleveland is also resting Angel Martínez and Patrick Bailey, so I am not treating the lineup angle as overwhelming.

The separator is Cleveland’s pitching depth. Its active bullpen carries a 3.15 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, compared with Toronto’s 4.30 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, and Cleveland’s principal late-inning arms are available. Toronto has rested leverage options of its own, but Bibee’s recent stability and the stronger overall bullpen give the Guardians the slightly cleaner route at the same price.