MLB · Sun, Oct 11 · 8:00 PM

Dodgers at Brewers

O/U 6.5 · RL Brewers -1.5 · American Family Field

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Dodgers· -104

The 103-win Brewers open the NLCS at home with the roof open, sending Jacob Misiorowski against Tarik Skubal. They're trying to beat the team that has ended their October all three times these clubs have met in the postseason. I'm backing Milwaukee, and the reason is how Misiorowski's split lines up against this Dodgers lineup. Misiorowski is toughest on left-handed hitters, who have a .378 OPS against him. The Dodgers' left-handed core is Freeman, Ohtani, Muncy and Tucker, and all four face that side tonight. The Dodgers got through the NLDS on home runs and went 9-for-65 with runners in scoring position over their last 10 games. Smith is 1-for-16 this postseason, and Ohtani hasn't homered since Aug. 18. Misiorowski allows a 3.6% barrel rate, has a 1.52 ERA at home, and owns a 1.59 ERA against Los Angeles with 27 strikeouts and 3 walks in 17 career innings. On a cool night with the roof open, I don't trust this lineup to slug its way past him. Milwaukee's lineup is built to handle Skubal. Chourio has a .979 OPS against lefties, Vaughn has .938 and Bauers has .901. Contreras hit .375/.444/.750 in the NLDS. Late in the game, the Brewers' bullpen allowed one earned run in 19 innings against San Diego, and Megill, Uribe and Ashby have all had three days off. The Dodgers' ninth inning may go to Diaz, who had an 8.68 ERA in the regular season and let left-handed hitters bat .333/.439/.542 against him. The case against me is real. Misiorowski has averaged about 75 pitches over his last five starts, so Milwaukee's bullpen will have to cover a lot of innings. Skubal hasn't allowed a homer to Milwaukee in 25 2/3 innings, and the bottom half of the Brewers' order hits lefties poorly. Still, at -104 I get the better starter, at home, with the stronger late-inning relievers. That's my bet.

The pick & result

Published pick: Brewers ML -104
Published odds: -104
Result: Won
Final score: 1-2

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETRIVERS · 6 moves

Market	Opened Oct 10 5:00 AM	Close Oct 11 7:45 PM	Move
SPREAD	Dodgers -1.5 (+180)	Dodgers -1 (+125)	−½
TOTAL	6 (-115)	6 (-113)	Price
MONEYLINE	Dodgers -103	Dodgers -112	−9

Every move, in order ›

When	Spread	Total	Moneyline
OPENOct 10 5:00 AM	Dodgers -1.5 (+180)	6 (-115)	Dodgers -103 · Brewers -118
Oct 11 5:00 AM	Dodgers -1.5 (+163)	6 (-108)	Dodgers -113 · Brewers -106
Oct 11 12:00 PM	Dodgers -1.5 (+148)	6 (-108)	Dodgers -124 · Brewers +104
Oct 11 4:31 PM	Dodgers -1.5 (+163)	6 (-113)	Dodgers -114 · Brewers -106
Oct 11 4:51 PM	Dodgers -1.5 (+163)	6 (-109)	Dodgers -113 · Brewers -106
Oct 11 7:30 PM	Dodgers -1.5 (+163)	6 (-113)	Dodgers -112 · Brewers -107
CLOSEOct 11 7:45 PM	Dodgers -1 (+125)	6 (-113)	Dodgers -112 · Brewers -107

The read

Misiorowski is toughest on left-handed hitters, who have a .378 OPS against him. The Dodgers' left-handed core is Freeman, Ohtani, Muncy and Tucker, and all four face that side tonight. The Dodgers got through the NLDS on home runs and went 9-for-65 with runners in scoring position over their last 10 games. Smith is 1-for-16 this postseason, and Ohtani hasn't homered since Aug. 18. Misiorowski allows a 3.6% barrel rate, has a 1.52 ERA at home, and owns a 1.59 ERA against Los Angeles with 27 strikeouts and 3 walks in 17 career innings. On a cool night with the roof open, I don't trust this lineup to slug its way past him.

Milwaukee's lineup is built to handle Skubal. Chourio has a .979 OPS against lefties, Vaughn has .938 and Bauers has .901. Contreras hit .375/.444/.750 in the NLDS. Late in the game, the Brewers' bullpen allowed one earned run in 19 innings against San Diego, and Megill, Uribe and Ashby have all had three days off. The Dodgers' ninth inning may go to Diaz, who had an 8.68 ERA in the regular season and let left-handed hitters bat .333/.439/.542 against him.

The case against me is real. Misiorowski has averaged about 75 pitches over his last five starts, so Milwaukee's bullpen will have to cover a lot of innings. Skubal hasn't allowed a homer to Milwaukee in 25 2/3 innings, and the bottom half of the Brewers' order hits lefties poorly. Still, at -104 I get the better starter, at home, with the stronger late-inning relievers. That's my bet.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAT CHECK

Will Smith: 1.182 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.182
Smith has a 1.182 OPS over the last 15 days, well above his .781 season mark. That is only 31 at-bats, so a couple of homers can inflate it fast, and his 10 home runs on the year fit a solid hitter more than one playing at this level. Expect him to settle back toward .781. Against a 0.5 total-bases line he needs one hit, and the hot stretch helps that case without deciding it.
Mookie Betts: 1.046 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.046
Betts has a 1.046 OPS over the last 15 days against a .780 season mark. The sample is 46 at-bats, bigger than a short burst, and his 23 home runs show the power is real. Some cooling toward .780 is the likely path, though this run has more behind it than most hot streaks. At a 0.5 total-bases line he needs only one hit, and his form supports that.

COOLING OFF

Freddie Freeman: .489 OPS in Last 15 Days
.489
Freeman has a .489 OPS over the last 15 days, well off his .792 season mark, a 0.303 drop. That cold stretch covers just 46 at-bats, which is not much against a full season from a hitter with his track record. Expect him to drift back toward his normal level. When sizing up his props tonight, give the season number more weight than the slump.
Garrett Mitchell: .560 OPS in Last 15 Days
.560
Mitchell has a .560 OPS over the last 15 days, 0.211 below his .771 season mark. That comes from just 36 at-bats, so a couple of good games would change it a lot. His season number is the better guide to what he brings tonight. Use the dip as a reason to check where he hits in the order and how much he plays, and leave it at that.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Brewers are 4-3 vs Dodgers this season
4-3
Milwaukee leads the season series 4-3, about as even as seven games can be. The last meeting was a 6-2 Brewers win, but there is nothing here on starters or venues to explain the split, and one result going the other way would flip it. Judge tonight on who is pitching and how each lineup is hitting now, with the series record as a tiebreaker at most.

STREAK

LAD games have gone UNDER 5 straight
U5
Dodgers games have averaged 5.6 combined runs over the last five, well under the 7.7 the books posted. The market kept expecting more offense than it got, though five games is a short run. Tonight's total of 6 already sits close to what these games have produced, so most of the gap that made the unders easy is gone. Backing the under now means trusting the low scoring at a price that has already caught up to it.
MIL games have gone UNDER 4 straight
U4
The last four Brewers games have averaged 5.8 combined runs against totals around 7.3. Four games is a small sample, and both clubs come in on under runs, so tonight's line of 6 has already dropped toward that recent scoring. The cushion that cashed these unders is mostly gone at this number. Judge the total on tonight's pitching rather than on the streak.

TEAM RECORD

Dodgers 8-0 in Tarik Skubal's last 8 starts
8-0
The Dodgers have won each of Skubal's last eight starts. Without runs allowed or run support behind it, the record tells you they won and nothing about how. Misiorowski's Brewers are also 8-0 in his last eight, so the two streaks cancel out as an angle. Price this game on the pitching matchup and the lineups, and leave the 8-0 out of it.
Brewers 8-0 in Jacob Misiorowski's last 8 starts
8-0
Milwaukee has won all eight of Misiorowski's last eight starts, so the team keeps finding a way when he pitches. There are no runs-allowed or scoring numbers here, so it is unclear how much of that is his arm and how much is the lineup bailing him out. Skubal brings his own 8-0 run into this game, and one streak ends tonight. With both starters riding the same record, the streak gives neither side an edge.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 8, 2026 at 4:52 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betrivers, caesars, betmgm.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ANDY PAGESH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -159
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2
Andy Pages over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -159. One hit, one run or one RBI cashes it, and he's the Dodger I trust most to get one against this staff. Pages hits from the right side, and that matters tonight. Misiorowski has been close to untouchable against left-handed hitters all year, and right-handers have at least competed against him. Pages put up a .774 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and his expected batting average matches his actual .274, so his results this year look earned. He's also hot. He had two hits in each of the last two NLDS games, including the two-run single that won the series, which he lined back up the middle off a 100 mph Suarez fastball. Then there's the back half of the game. Misiorowski lasted four innings in his NLDS start and has been on short outings for weeks. Milwaukee's middle relief leans on lefties: Ashby, Romero and Hall. Pages had a .902 OPS against left-handers this season, so a late at-bat against one of them is a good spot for him. The case against: he's 0-for-6 in his career against Misiorowski. That's a small sample, but it's all he has. Batting seventh also limits him to about four plate appearances. He went hitless in the first two games of the NLDS after missing most of September with a fractured hand, so the hot streak is only two games old. At -159 I'm paying for a hitter in form, on the better side of the platoon, with a lefty reliever likely waiting late. I'll take that.
Andy Pages
H+R+RBI over 0.5
-159 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2
Los Angeles Dodgers
Andy Pages over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -159. One hit, one run or one RBI cashes it, and he's the Dodger I trust most to get one against this staff.
Pages hits from the right side, and that matters tonight. Misiorowski has been close to untouchable against left-handed hitters all year, and right-handers have at least competed against him. Pages put up a .774 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and his expected batting average matches his actual .274, so his results this year look earned. He's also hot. He had two hits in each of the last two NLDS games, including the two-run single that won the series, which he lined back up the middle off a 100 mph Suarez fastball. Then there's the back half of the game. Misiorowski lasted four innings in his NLDS start and has been on short outings for weeks. Milwaukee's middle relief leans on lefties: Ashby, Romero and Hall. Pages had a .902 OPS against left-handers this season, so a late at-bat against one of them is a good spot for him.
The case against: he's 0-for-6 in his career against Misiorowski. That's a small sample, but it's all he has. Batting seventh also limits him to about four plate appearances. He went hitless in the first two games of the NLDS after missing most of September with a fractured hand, so the hot streak is only two games old. At -159 I'm paying for a hitter in form, on the better side of the platoon, with a lefty reliever likely waiting late. I'll take that.
GARY'S PICK
SHOHEI OHTANIH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -158
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2
Shohei Ohtani over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -158. He bats fourth, gets more plate appearances than anyone else on this board, and only needs one hit, one run or one RBI. I backed Milwaukee tonight, and Misiorowski's dominance of left-handed hitters is a big part of why. This ticket asks much less than that one. Ohtani's quality of contact this season ran ahead of his results, with an expected slugging mark above .550, so his bat has been better than his numbers. His career line against Misiorowski is 2-for-5 with a home run and a walk in six plate appearances. That's a tiny sample, but he has hurt this pitcher before. He's also still controlling the zone: two walks and a catcher's interference in the NLDS. With Teoscar Hernandez and Muncy hitting behind him, getting on base is a real path to scoring, and that's exactly how he cashed this prop in Game 4, when he walked, stole second and scored. Once Misiorowski leaves, Ohtani gets the late right-handers, Megill and Uribe, and he had an .893 OPS against righties this year. The case against is strong. He's cold, with a .558 OPS over the last two weeks, two hits in four NLDS games and no RBIs in that stretch. When these two met in August in Los Angeles, Misiorowski struck him out at the biggest moment of the game. And Milwaukee's lefty relievers can line up for his late at-bats. I'm paying -158 for the most plate appearances on the board and the best contact profile on the board, and I'm keeping my stake small.
Shohei Ohtani
H+R+RBI over 0.5
-158 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2
Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -158. He bats fourth, gets more plate appearances than anyone else on this board, and only needs one hit, one run or one RBI.
I backed Milwaukee tonight, and Misiorowski's dominance of left-handed hitters is a big part of why. This ticket asks much less than that one. Ohtani's quality of contact this season ran ahead of his results, with an expected slugging mark above .550, so his bat has been better than his numbers. His career line against Misiorowski is 2-for-5 with a home run and a walk in six plate appearances. That's a tiny sample, but he has hurt this pitcher before. He's also still controlling the zone: two walks and a catcher's interference in the NLDS. With Teoscar Hernandez and Muncy hitting behind him, getting on base is a real path to scoring, and that's exactly how he cashed this prop in Game 4, when he walked, stole second and scored. Once Misiorowski leaves, Ohtani gets the late right-handers, Megill and Uribe, and he had an .893 OPS against righties this year.
The case against is strong. He's cold, with a .558 OPS over the last two weeks, two hits in four NLDS games and no RBIs in that stretch. When these two met in August in Los Angeles, Misiorowski struck him out at the biggest moment of the game. And Milwaukee's lefty relievers can line up for his late at-bats. I'm paying -158 for the most plate appearances on the board and the best contact profile on the board, and I'm keeping my stake small.

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