Cardinals at Dodgers
O/U 8.5 · RL Dodgers -1.5 · Dodger Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Cardinals +1.5 -132
- Published odds
- -132
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 13-8
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANDUEL · 5 moves| Market | Opened Sep 1 4:57 PM | Close Sep 1 8:40 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Dodgers -1.5 (+108) | Dodgers -1.5 (+110) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Dodgers -196 | Dodgers -196 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 1 4:57 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+108) | — | Dodgers -196 · Cardinals +164 |
| Sep 1 6:02 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+106) | — | Dodgers -196 · Cardinals +164 |
| Sep 1 6:10 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+110) | — | Dodgers -196 · Cardinals +164 |
| Sep 1 7:10 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+108) | — | Dodgers -196 · Cardinals +164 |
| Sep 1 7:55 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+112) | — | Dodgers -196 · Cardinals +164 |
| CLOSESep 1 8:40 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+110) | — | Dodgers -196 · Cardinals +164 |
The read
A clear September night at Dodger Stadium opens a nine-game homestand for Los Angeles and a nine-game road trip for St. Louis. Both clubs had Monday off, so neither side carries a meaningful rest disadvantage.
I’m taking the run with St. Louis rather than requiring the outright upset. Michael McGreevy’s 3.86 ERA and 1.25 WHIP compare favorably with Eric Lauer’s 4.78 and 1.26. McGreevy has a 3.66 road ERA, including 2.87 across his last three road starts. Lauer owns an excellent 2.37 ERA at Dodger Stadium, but he has a 6.46 ERA over his last three starts and is returning to the rotation after pitching in relief five days ago.
McGreevy’s seven earned runs in five innings last time out cannot be ignored, but St. Louis has gone 24-18 against left-handed starters and has scored 4.8 runs per game over its last ten. Los Angeles has scored 3.6 per game over the same span. Most importantly for this ticket, seven of the Dodgers’ last ten games were decided by one run, including three of their six victories.
The major danger is late in the game. The Dodgers’ bullpen has a 1.54 ERA over the last ten days, while the Cardinals’ bullpen is at 7.13. That disparity is why I’m passing on St. Louis outright at +164. With the extra run, McGreevy only needs to keep the Cardinals competitive long enough for the Dodgers’ recent close-game shape to matter.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
BULLPEN
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
12.7 IPFernandez has already thrown 3 innings across two outings in this stretch, the heaviest load in that pen, and Mautz's 61-pitch outing doesn't wear off that fast either. Stanek's the one who looks fresh — just 17 pitches across two outings — and ready to go again tonight against the Dodgers.
BALLPARK
Eric Lauer owns a 2.37 ERA at Dodger Stadium — 5.76 everywhere else
2.37Dodger Stadium already plays pitcher-friendly, but a gap this big — hitters down to .200 against him there — says Lauer's stuff is a real match for that park, not just riding it. Trusting that combination again tonight against St. Louis.
STREAK
LAD games have gone UNDER 4 straight
U4Four straight Dodgers games have stayed under without seriously threatening to open up. A total of nine provides generous room for that same low-scoring profile to continue.
REGRESSION
Michael McGreevy: 3.86 ERA vs 5.38 xERA
5.38A 42.3% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate are bad marks, and a 6.2 K/9 doesn't miss enough bats to cover for it. The .258 he's actually allowed is well under what his contact supports — that's a profile that tends to turn on a pitcher fast against the Dodgers.
CUT LIST
Michael McGreevy
5.38 xERAThe 3.86 ERA reads like a breakout arm, but 5.38 xERA is the widest gap in this group — a run and a half between what's happened and what should have happened. Splits that wide don't hold up over a season. He takes the ball tonight with the best surface line of the three and the least trustworthy one. Cut him. The prettiest ERA here is also the biggest mirage.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 1, 2026 at 5:14 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKJORDAN WALKERH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
Walker owns a .911 OPS with nine home runs against left-handed pitching, and this prop has cleared in 11 of his last 15 games. He bats third against Eric Lauer, whose 4.78 ERA includes a 6.46 mark across his last three starts.
Lauer has also allowed 18 home runs to right-handed batters. Walker can clear this with one home run or any combination of production and scoring from the heart of the order.
I like that flexibility at -117.
- GARY'S PICKMICHAEL MCGREEVYK'S OVER 3.5
McGreevy has reached four strikeouts in four of his last five starts and has recorded at least 15 outs in six of his last eight. His changeup carries a 27.8% whiff rate, while both the changeup and curveball have generated chase rates above 56%. This Dodgers lineup includes several legitimate strikeout targets in Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernandez and Alex Freeland. Four is a manageable number if McGreevy works five innings, and the plus-money price makes the over worth taking.
- THE LONG SHOTJOSHUA BAEZHR OVER 0.5
This is a price play on a real lefty-mashing power profile. Baez has four home runs and a 1.016 OPS in 26 at-bats against left-handed pitching, and his power was established before his promotion with 34 Triple-A homers.
Lauer has surrendered 18 home runs to right-handed batters and has allowed seven homers across his last five appearances. The marine layer is a concern, but Baez has the raw power to beat the park.
At +476, the payout properly compensates me for the volatility.
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