Padres at Dodgers
O/U 7.5 · RL Dodgers -1.5 · Dodger Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Los Angeles Dodgers ML -174
- Published odds
- -174
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 4-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 19 moves| Market | Opened Sep 24 5:00 AM | Close Sep 24 9:55 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Dodgers -1.5 (+125) | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-120) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Dodgers -175 | Dodgers -170 | +5 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 24 5:00 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (+125) | 7.5 (-110) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 6:00 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-110) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 9:00 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-105) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 10:01 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 8 (-110) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 12:01 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-120) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 1:21 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+125) | 7.5 (-120) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 1:40 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-120) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 4:31 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 8 (-105) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 5:35 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-120) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 6:12 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+125) | 7.5 (-120) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 6:15 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 8 (-105) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 6:35 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-120) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 6:45 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 8 (-105) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 6:50 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-120) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 7:21 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-115) | Dodgers -170 · Padres +140 |
| Sep 24 9:10 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-120) | Dodgers -170 · Padres +140 |
| Sep 24 9:10 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-120) | Dodgers -170 · Padres +140 |
| Sep 24 9:25 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-120) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| Sep 24 9:25 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-120) | Dodgers -175 · Padres +145 |
| CLOSESep 24 9:55 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+130) | 7.5 (-120) | Dodgers -170 · Padres +140 |
The read
The Dodgers and Padres close their season series at Dodger Stadium tonight, with the rubber game on the line and a playoff clinch waiting for San Diego. Tyler Glasnow faces Nick Pivetta on a warm, clear evening in Los Angeles. I'm backing the Dodgers because this game should be decided in the middle innings, and that stretch favors them. Pivetta is still building back up from a flexor strain, at 63, 69 and then 76 pitches since returning, and has barely started a third trip through a lineup. The 1.93 ERA since the return came against Washington, San Francisco and Miami. Pivetta throws the four-seam fastball 55.4% of the time, and it draws only 8.8% whiffs. Tonight that pitch meets Muncy, who owns a .460 xwOBA against four-seamers, and Freeman, who is .390 in 41 career at-bats against Pivetta.
Once Pivetta leaves, San Diego's best relievers all pitched last night: Rodriguez threw 37 pitches, Matsui 20 and Miller 18. The rested arms behind them are Hart (7.45 ERA over the last 30 days), Peralta (5.56), and Jason Adam, who allowed 9 earned runs in 0.1 innings over the final two rehab outings. The Dodgers can go to Phillips (1.23 ERA over the last 30 days) and Vesia (0.93), both rested. They get there behind Glasnow, who has thrown 85-98 pitches every time out since returning and has 38 strikeouts in 28 innings, including 10 last time. The lineup went 7-2 without Ohtani and now has Ohtani and Pages back.
The best argument against the Dodgers is San Diego's urgency. A win clinches a playoff berth, and Stammen has managed this series like October, so Miller (1.19 ERA) and Morejon, who threw just 6 pitches last night, are likely in play again. Glasnow's walks are the other concern: 19 in 145 at-bats against lefties, with Harris and Salas hitting just ahead of Machado and Tatis. The Dodgers' ninth inning is also unsettled, with Scott carrying a 5.40 ERA and 2 blown saves over the last 30 days. I'm still laying -174. Even if the Padres' closer and top setup man both pitch, San Diego probably needs several outs from its weakest relievers to reach them. Those outs come against a lineup that had 10 hits and 5 walks last night. I'll take the deeper, better-rested staff at home.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Tyler Glasnow: 5.63 ERA over his last 3 starts
5.63Glasnow has a 5.63 ERA over his last 16 innings, with a 1.44 WHIP against 0.96 on the season, so far more hitters are reaching base than usual. It is only 3 starts, and his 3.46 season ERA reflects a better pitcher, so this could turn quickly. Against San Diego, the season version deserves more weight than the last three outings.
HEAT CHECK
Kyle Tucker: 1.347 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.347Tucker has a 1.347 OPS over 41 AB in the last 15 days against a .726 season mark, a 0.621 jump that is the biggest on this board. A jump that large off a modest baseline in 41 AB is the kind most likely to fade. He has 17 home runs. Against San Diego with a 1.5 total-bases line, two hot weeks alone are a thin reason to expect two bases.
Mookie Betts: 1.212 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.212Betts has a 1.212 OPS over 46 AB in the last 15 days, 0.432 above his .780 season baseline. About two weeks of hitting this far over his norm usually drifts back. His 22 home runs give him a real power floor. Against San Diego with a 1.5 total-bases line, the .780 season mark is the steadier guide than the recent surge.
Jackson Merrill: 1.106 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.106Merrill's run covers 55 AB, the biggest sample in this group, and sits 0.361 above his .745 season OPS. His 26 home runs show steady pop all year, so a longer run like this is more believable, though his season number still anchors him. His total-bases line in SD @ LAD is 0.5, which makes it a question about contact more than power.
COOLING OFF
Freddie Freeman: .459 OPS in Last 15 Days
.459Freeman has a .459 OPS over 42 AB in the last 15 days against an .807 season mark, a 0.348 drop. For a hitter with that track record, 42 at-bats is a short stretch, and a climb back is more likely than staying there. In Padres at Dodgers, a Freeman prop priced on the slump deserves a look, since the season number is the steadier read.
BALLPARK
At Dodger Stadium, Tyler Glasnow pitches to a 4.25 ERA
4.25Hitters bat just .200 off Glasnow at Dodger Stadium, yet his ERA there is 4.25, against 2.84 elsewhere. The home sample is 29.2 innings over 5 games and the away one only 38.0, so one bad night can swing either number. The low average says his stuff is working at home, which points to that home ERA coming down. Against San Diego, that matters more than the raw split.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Dodgers are 8-4 vs Padres this season
8-4Los Angeles has won 8 of 12 against San Diego, but the Padres took the last meeting 5-1. The sheet doesn't show who started or where those games were played, so the record can't tell you much about tonight at Dodger Stadium. In a series this close, the probable starters carry more weight than the head-to-head count.
STREAK
LAD have won 5 straight
W5The Dodgers have a +27 run differential over the five wins, so they are winning comfortably, and they are 7-3 over their last 10. Five games is a short window, and a margin that wide rarely holds. Against San Diego, price them on the 7-3 form more than the five-game margin.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 10:34 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betmgm, caesars, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKNICK PIVETTAK'S UNDER 4.5
I'm taking Nick Pivetta under 4.5 strikeouts at -105. My case rests on how long he'll pitch and how he's been getting outs since coming back.
Pivetta is three starts into his return from a flexor strain that cost him nearly five months. His pitch counts have gone 63, 69 and 76, and he has recorded 15, 12 and 15 outs. San Diego has kept him at five innings or fewer each time. His strikeouts in those three starts were 2, 5 and 4, so 11 in 14 innings. The book agrees he'll pitch a short night: his outs line is 14.5, with the under priced at -124. At the 20 strikeouts per 100 plate appearances tonight's Dodgers nine carry for the season, a start of around 18 to 20 batters projects to about four strikeouts. That lands me below the number.
His pitch mix supports it. Pivetta throws his four-seam fastball 55.4% of the time, and it has drawn only an 8.8% whiff rate this season. His whiff rate by start since the return has run 4%, 22% and 11%. He came back throwing strikes and pitching to contact. Stammen praised his fastball command, not his swing and miss. He also has a clear reason to keep his pitch count efficient tonight: San Diego wants him ready as a possible Game 2 Wild Card starter next week.
The strongest case for the over is his history against this club and the strikeout risk in this lineup. Pivetta has 44 strikeouts in 35.1 career innings against the Dodgers. That is about 11 per nine, over 7 starts. Ohtani, Muncy and Teoscar Hernandez have 413 strikeouts between them this season. Pivetta also struck out 8 in two of his three April starts. His 22% whiff game against the Giants shows the strikeout upside is still there, and if San Diego lets him reach 85 pitches, a fifth strikeout is well within reach. Those are real risks. Still, a pitcher on a short leash leaning on a fastball that rarely misses bats should come in at four or fewer, and at nearly even money I'll take that side.
- GARY'S PICKSAMAD TAYLORH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
I'm taking Samad Taylor over 0.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -135. He needs one hit, one run or one RBI to cash.
Taylor has been one of San Diego's steadiest bats in a part-time role. He is hitting .333 with a .410 on-base percentage across 141 at-bats. Against right-handed pitching he has hit .337 with an .871 OPS in 95 at-bats. Over the last 7 days he is 8 for 16. He has cleared this line in 10 of his last 15 games and averages 2.1 combined per game this season. He also creates runs without a hit. Last night he walked in the ninth, stole two bases and scored. With 12 steals in limited time, any time he reaches he has a real chance to score.
Glasnow's recent control helps too. He has walked 9 batters over his last three starts, and runners are 12 for 15 stealing against him this season. When Taylor reaches base, he can move himself into scoring position, with Salas behind him and Tatis leading off right after.
The strongest case against this bet is the pitcher. Right-handed hitters are batting .187 with a .559 OPS against Glasnow this season, and his whiff rate has sat between 21% and 39% in every start since his return. Taylor is 0 for 2 against him in his career and 0 for 4 in this series. He hits eighth and averages 3.7 plate appearances, and the Dodgers have Phillips and Vesia rested for the late innings. The -135 price leaves no margin. Still, a .410 on-base hitter with speed needs only one thing to go his way, and his recent form earns the price.
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