Dodgers at Marlins
O/U 9.5 · RL Marlins -2.5 · loanDepot park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Dodgers ML -138
- Published odds
- -138
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 4-6
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 12 moves| Market | Opened Sep 13 10:14 AM | Close Sep 13 1:20 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Dodgers -1.5 (+118) | Dodgers -1.5 (+120) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8.5 (-102) | 8.5 (-102) | Holds |
| MONEYLINE | Dodgers -145 | Dodgers -140 | +5 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 13 10:14 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (+118) | 8.5 (-102) | Dodgers -145 · Marlins +118 |
| Sep 13 11:14 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (+120) | 8.5 (-102) | Dodgers -140 · Marlins +115 |
| Sep 13 11:17 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (+120) | 8.5 (-102) | Dodgers -145 · Marlins +118 |
| Sep 13 11:31 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (+118) | 8.5 (-102) | Dodgers -145 · Marlins +120 |
| Sep 13 11:40 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (+118) | 8.5 (-102) | Dodgers -145 · Marlins +118 |
| Sep 13 11:50 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (+118) | 8.5 (-102) | Dodgers -145 · Marlins +120 |
| Sep 13 11:54 AM | Dodgers -1.5 (+118) | 8.5 (-102) | Dodgers -145 · Marlins +118 |
| Sep 13 12:01 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+118) | 8.5 (-102) | Dodgers -145 · Marlins +120 |
| Sep 13 12:06 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+118) | 8.5 (-102) | Dodgers -145 · Marlins +118 |
| Sep 13 12:40 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+120) | 8.5 (+100) | Dodgers -145 · Marlins +118 |
| Sep 13 1:05 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+120) | 8.5 (-102) | Dodgers -140 · Marlins +115 |
| Sep 13 1:10 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+118) | 8.5 (-102) | Dodgers -140 · Marlins +115 |
| CLOSESep 13 1:20 PM | Dodgers -1.5 (+120) | 8.5 (-102) | Dodgers -140 · Marlins +115 |
The read
Sunday afternoon at loanDepot park, with the series tied and the roof closed for Dodgers–Marlins. I’m backing Los Angeles at -138 because its starter’s control and its late-inning pitching give me the stronger overall case. The Dodgers starter recorded 32 strikeouts against 6 walks across his last five starts. His season line includes 31 walks in 101.0 innings, compared with Miami’s 62 in 139.1 innings. That gives me a concrete reason to favor Los Angeles in limiting free baserunners, even though Miami brings the better season ERA into this matchup.
The bullpen carries considerable weight in my decision. Los Angeles’ leading late-inning options were not listed among the relievers used Thursday through Saturday, while Miami’s closer pitched Saturday. Combined with the stronger season performance of those Dodgers relief options, that suggests more flexibility and a better chance of sustaining effective pitching after the starters leave. One appearance does not make Miami’s closer exhausted; my preference comes from quality plus the usage pattern. If this remains competitive into the late innings, I’m more comfortable backing Los Angeles’ relief options. Saturday’s result supplies the rubber-game setting, but bullpen quality carries more weight for me than the streak ending.
The strongest argument against my pick is Miami’s starter: a 3.94 ERA against 5.08, with fewer home runs allowed over more innings. Miami’s left-handed lineup presence also fits a vulnerability in the Dodgers starter’s results: an .853 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters. Those are substantial reasons Miami could build an early advantage. I’m accepting that risk because the Dodgers’ control and relief advantages give them a persuasive winning path across the full game. At -138, I’m willing to pay for that combination, with moderate conviction.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Will Smith (bats R) hits 4th against Eury Perez (RHP)
.794Will Smith has a .794 OPS in 146 AB against righties, compared with .488 in 55 AB the other way. Batting fourth, the right-handed hitter faces RHP Eury Perez on his stronger split.
HEAT CHECK
Teoscar Hernandez: 1.112 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.112Teoscar Hernandez has a 1.112 OPS over the last 15 days in 46 AB. His season mark is .749.
Mookie Betts: 1.057 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.057Mookie Betts has a 1.057 OPS over the last 15 days and 48 AB. That is a 0.312 swing from his .745 season baseline.
TEAM RECORD
Dodgers 2-6 in Emmet Sheehan's last 8 starts
2-6Los Angeles is 2-6 across Emmet Sheehan’s last eight starts this season. Sheehan starts tonight at Miami.
REGRESSION
Will Smith: .239 AVG vs .271 xBA
.271Will Smith is batting .239 against a .271 xBA over 235 plate appearances, while his .317 wOBA trails a .379 xwOBA. Both contact-based marks exceed his results entering LAD @ MIA, leaving the gap pointed upward without opponent-specific evidence.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanatics, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKALEX FREELANDWALKS UNDER 0.5
Freeland hits ninth for the Dodgers, and drawing a walk just isn't part of his game plan right now. He's taken one in only three of his last fifteen games, and in his last seven that number drops to a single occurrence. His season line — .225 average, .310 on-base, 27 walks in 218 at-bats — describes a free swinger, not someone working deep counts.
He's a switch-hitter, and against right-handers, which is what he'll see today from Eury Pérez, he's hitting .242 with a .660 OPS across 186 at-bats: competent enough to put the bat on the ball, but not a threat pitchers are pitching around. Pérez gets plenty of chases with his mix, including a sweeper hitters swing through almost half the time — the kind of pitcher who turns free-swinging, bottom-of-the-order bats into quick outs rather than walks. Freeland already has two hits in this series, so he's seeing pitches fine; he just hasn't shown me the patience to turn one of those looks into a walk.
I'll lay the price at -176.
- GARY'S PICKALEX CALLWALKS UNDER 0.5
Call is back in center field today after sitting the last two games, and even in a semi-regular role he isn't a hitter who compiles walks — four times in his last fifteen games, and those trips are already spread across a stretch where he's been in and out of the lineup, which means fewer looks at the plate to begin with. He's a right-handed bat facing a right-handed arm in Eury Pérez today, and his season numbers against that side are thin: .204 with a .561 OPS in 93 at-bats.
A part-time player without a track record against same-side pitching, drawing a start, is more likely to hunt a pitch to drive early than to grind out a walk. The number that argues against me is Pérez's own control — he's issued 62 walks in 139.1 innings this season, a below-average rate, so free passes are in play against him overall.
But that's his league-wide number across every hitter; Call individually hasn't given me a reason to think he's the one drawing it tonight. Under at -184.
- THE LONG SHOTGRIFFIN CONINEHR OVER 0.5
Conine is a left-handed bat in the middle of Miami's order, and the man on the mound for Los Angeles has a real problem with left-handed power. Emmet Sheehan has allowed an .853 OPS and 13 home runs in 216 at-bats against lefties this season, against a much tamer .707 and 8 home runs in 173 at-bats against right-handers — nearly double the home run rate on the left-handed side.
Conine is built for exactly that split: 14 of his 15 home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching, and his .921 OPS against right-handers is the best platoon number on his page. He's also squaring the ball up right now — a double and three singles against this same Dodgers pitching staff already this series, and a .333 average with an .884 OPS in September, even though the ball hasn't left the yard yet this month.
That's the case against me: just one home run in his last fifteen games, so the recent power sample is thin. I'm betting the quality of contact catches up to the results against a pitcher who has been this exposed to lefty power, and at plus-550 I don't need this often to make the swing worth it.
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