Dodgers at Tigers
O/U 7.5 · RL Dodgers -1.5 · Comerica Park
Dodgers ML-174
CONF 64%
WCashedFinal 2-1
The read
Tarik Skubal returns to Comerica Park wearing visiting colors, with Detroit trying to turn the reunion into an upset. The setting could keep this close: Comerica suppresses home runs, the wind is coming in from left, and Detroit had yesterday off.
I’m backing Los Angeles to win without requiring a two-run margin. Detroit starts seven right-handed hitters, while righties have produced only a .189 average and .553 OPS against Skubal. The Tigers collectively own a .230 average and .688 OPS against left-handed pitching. Skubal brings a 2.91 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 146 strikeouts against 21 walks into that matchup.
The comparison on the other side also favors Los Angeles. Anderson has a 4.09 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, while the Dodgers have hit .261 with a .767 OPS against right-handed pitching. Anderson has not completed more than five innings in any of his six 2026 starts; Skubal has completed at least six innings in five of his last six. That matters behind bullpens carrying a 3.07 ERA and 1.18 WHIP for Los Angeles versus 3.62 and 1.33 for Detroit.
There are enough counterweights to avoid the run line. Anderson has allowed a .674 OPS to left-handed hitters, and the Dodgers start six of them. Comerica also suppresses the home-run damage that accounted for four of the five recent scoring plays against Anderson. Those factors can help Detroit keep it tight, but they do not outweigh Skubal’s matchup with this Tigers lineup, the Dodgers’ advantage against right-handed pitching and the stronger season bullpen. The ticket is Los Angeles simply to finish ahead.
Props on this game
2Dillon DinglerUNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-160
WActual 0
Dingler has cleared this number only once in his last 15 games, and his current form offers little reason to pay for a rebound against Tarik Skubal. He is 6-for-50 over the last 15 days, owns a .219 average and .629 OPS against left-handed pitching, and has not homered during that stretch.
Skubal has held right-handed hitters to a .189 average and .553 OPS. Comerica Park and the wind coming in from left further reduce Dingler's best path to stacking multiple hits, runs and RBIs with one swing. Even after Skubal exits, the Dodgers' current bullpen carries a 3.07 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. I expect Dingler to finish with zero or one combined contribution.
Freddie FreemanOVER 0.5 Singles Singles-123
Not yet graded
Freeman has recorded a single in eight of his last 15 games and is hitting .318 with an .892 OPS against right-handed pitching. Batting second should give him four or five opportunities against Drew Anderson and a Detroit bullpen carrying a 1.33 WHIP.
Anderson has held left-handed hitters to a respectable .674 OPS, but he has not completed more than five innings in any start this season. That exposes Freeman to multiple pitching looks, while Comerica's dimensions and the wind coming in make a basic hit more appealing than chasing his power markets. At this price, I want Freeman to find one opening.
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