Padres picks

The Padres are facing elimination again under the Petco Park lights, with Walker Buehler on the mound against Robert Gasser and a 103-win Milwaukee club that is one win away from the NLCS. All three games in this series have been decided by one run. Tonight I'm betting on the team whose contact numbers have been better than its results. Across the three NLDS games, Milwaukee has a 48.1% hard-hit rate and a .375 expected wOBA. San Diego sits at 30.7% and .290 and has only two extra-base hits in the series. The Brewers out-hit the Padres 11-6 in Game 3 and still lost because they stranded 11 runners, including a 107 mph Yelich grounder that turned into the game-ending double play. Buehler gives that lineup room to work. He has allowed a home run in each of his last six starts. Lefties have a .768 OPS against him and drew 36 walks, and Milwaukee starts five of them. His four-seamer carries a .385 expected wOBA, and Bauers (.449) and Chourio (.402) have hit that pitch well. He also covered only 22.1 innings over his last five starts, so a lot of outs could fall to the San Diego bullpen. That bullpen is where I see the gap. Matsui, Rodriguez, Adam and King all pitched last night, and King has thrown 112 pitches since Sunday. Miller is back, but he has walked 8 in 11.1 innings over the last 30 days, and Morejon still has to pass a pregame check on his shoulder. Milwaukee has Megill and Ashby on two full days of rest and Uribe after only 7 pitches. The real risk is Gasser against seven right-handed bats, who have a .765 OPS against him. But he comes in with a 1.67 ERA over his last five starts and has allowed only 4 home runs in his last 10 outings. He is also pitching in a park that suppresses home runs, with a breeze blowing in from left. At -106, I'll take the team with the louder bats and the fresher bullpen arms.