Padres at Brewers
O/U 7.5 · RL Brewers -1.5 · American Family Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Brewers ML -134
- Published odds
- -134
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 3-4
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 7 moves| Market | Opened Oct 3 5:00 AM | Close Oct 4 3:45 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Brewers -1.5 (+100) | Brewers -1.5 (+162) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7 (-102) | 7 (-114) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Brewers -230 | Brewers -136 | +94 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 3 5:00 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+100) | 7 (-102) | Brewers -230 · Padres +187 |
| Oct 4 5:00 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+153) | 7 (-115) | Brewers -143 · Padres +119 |
| Oct 4 12:00 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+161) | 7 (-115) | Brewers -137 · Padres +114 |
| Oct 4 2:30 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+161) | 7 (-115) | Brewers -136 · Padres +113 |
| Oct 4 2:58 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+159) | 7 (-119) | Brewers -136 · Padres +113 |
| Oct 4 3:02 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+162) | 7 (-119) | Brewers -136 · Padres +113 |
| Oct 4 3:30 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+162) | 7 (-118) | Brewers -136 · Padres +113 |
| CLOSEOct 4 3:45 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+162) | 7 (-114) | Brewers -136 · Padres +113 |
The read
The roof is closed at American Family Field, the Brewers are up a game, and the Padres need this one before the series heads to Petco. For me, Game 2 comes down to whose starter's numbers are real. Logan Henderson's are. His 2.47 ERA sits right on top of a 2.74 xERA, with a 0.84 WHIP, 10.1 strikeouts and 1.74 walks per nine, and the rookie hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of 23 career starts. Michael King's 3.21 ERA rests on a 4.42 xERA, so the market is overpaying for a fragile number. The gap is in the fastballs: King's sinker has allowed a .368 xwOBA and the four-seamer .349. Those are the pitches Milwaukee's top of the order hits hard. Jake Bauers has a .449 xwOBA against four-seamers and Jackson Chourio .402, and Chourio is hitting .364/.447/.636 over his last 10.
The best argument against Milwaukee is the late innings. Henderson has gone exactly five innings in each of his last three starts, and Megill, Uribe, Hall and Ashby all pitched last night. King works deep, with seven scoreless innings in the Wild Card opener, and Mason Miller (39 saves, 1.65 ERA) has three days off behind him. That risk is real. But last night's counts were moderate, 16 to 23 pitches, tomorrow is an off-day, and Milwaukee can bridge the middle with arms who haven't pitched in nearly a week, including Shane Drohan and his 1.47 ERA. San Diego's bridge is the thinner one. Adrian Morejon threw 31 pitches last night and has pitched the next day 0 of 12 times after 26 or more this season. That leaves Yuki Matsui, who also pitched last night, as the only left-handed option against the three straight left-handed hitters Milwaukee bats fifth through seventh.
Over the full season, these teams aren't as close as this price implies. Milwaukee's +214 run differential backs its 103 wins, while San Diego's +41 doesn't support its 91. The risk with Henderson is the fly ball to left-handed hitters, and Jackson Merrill homered off Henderson in August. I'll accept that risk. Milwaukee has the better starter on the numbers that hold up, the best hitter-versus-pitch matchup in the game, and a price that hasn't caught up to the talent gap. Brewers on the moneyline.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
HEAT CHECK
Jake Cronenworth: .968 OPS in Last 15 Days
.968Cronenworth has a .968 OPS over the last 15 days in 47 AB, a 0.339 jump over his .629 season mark. That swing is large for a hitter with a modest baseline, and a 47 AB sample usually drifts back. His total-bases line against Milwaukee is 1.5, so lean on the season number more than the hot stretch.
Xander Bogaerts: 1.123 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.123Bogaerts is at a 1.123 OPS over the last 15 days, far above his .676 season mark. It comes in only 34 AB, where a few extra-base hits move the number fast, and his 13 home runs point to modest power. His total-bases line in Milwaukee is 0.5, which only needs one hit, so everyday contact matters more than the hot run.
COOLING OFF
Garrett Mitchell: .560 OPS in Last 15 Days
.560Mitchell has a .560 OPS over the last 15 days in 36 AB, down 0.211 from his .771 season mark. It is a cold stretch on a short sample, and he should move back toward .771. Against San Diego, his season number is the more reliable read on his bat.
Manny Machado: .567 OPS in Last 15 Days
.567Machado has a .567 OPS over the last 15 days in 51 AB, a 0.144 drop from his .711 season mark. That is a modest slump on a fuller sample, and his season has been ordinary anyway. Expect a mild bounce toward .711, which leaves little mispricing to find against Milwaukee.
FIRST INNING
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of SD @ MIL
NRFIA run was scored by either team in the first inning in 3 of 10 sampled MIL games and 3 of 10 sampled SD games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Logan Henderson: 1.00 ERA, .210 opponent AVG across 18.0 IP, 1 HR; Michael King: 1.69 ERA, .148 opponent AVG across 32.0 IP, 2 HR.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Padres are 4-2 vs Brewers this season
4-2San Diego has taken four of six from Milwaukee, and the last meeting was a 4-3 game. A two-game edge over six meetings is thin, and the sheet doesn't say who pitched or where. With tonight in Milwaukee, the series record shouldn't move your number much on its own.
STREAK
MIL have won 5 straight
W5Milwaukee has outscored opponents by 14 runs during the streak, so these have mostly been comfortable wins. The 6-1 mark over the last 7 shows the form runs a bit deeper than the streak. Five games is a short sample, and San Diego, also hot, is the next test. The question is how much of that run margin the market has already baked into tonight's price.
SD have won 4 straight
W4San Diego has won the four by a combined 19 runs, and at 8-2 over their last 10 the form holds up beyond a short burst. Four games is still a small sample. Milwaukee is the toughest kind of test, at home and riding a five-game streak of its own. With both teams hot, the run margins say more than the streak lengths when sizing up this one.
TEAM RECORD
Brewers 6-2 in Logan Henderson's last 8 starts
6-2Milwaukee has won six of Logan Henderson's last eight starts, including the last three. A team record counts the lineup and bullpen as much as the starter, and eight games is a short stretch, so this shows recent form more than a lasting edge. Against San Diego, use it as a sign the Brewers have played well behind him lately, and price the matchup itself first.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, draftkings, betrivers, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKMICHAEL KINGPITCHER OUTS OVER 14.5
Michael King over 14.5 outs at -135 asks for five full innings from the Padres' ace, and I think Craig Stammen needs every one of them today. Look at what Game 1 cost his bullpen. Robbie Ray lasted only 2.2 innings, so Bradgley Rodriguez, Yuki Matsui, Jason Adam and Adrian Morejon all worked last night. Morejon threw 31 pitches, and he has not pitched the day after any of his heavier outings this season. Walker Buehler is away on paternity leave, which leaves Randy Vásquez and Joe Musgrove, who only just returned from nearly two years away, as the length behind King. Stammen wants his starter deep in this one.
King has been giving him starts like that. He threw seven scoreless innings on 97 pitches against the Cubs in the Wild Card opener. From mid August through the end of the regular season, only one of his starts came up short of five innings. His lone start against Milwaukee this year, on May 13, went 5.2 innings with one earned run. The matchup fits too. Milwaukee starts six left-handed hitters, and lefties hit .219 with a .635 OPS against King this season. The right-handed bats near the top have not solved him in small samples: Jackson Chourio is 0 for 5 and William Contreras 0 for 9 against him.
The case against is pitch count and the postseason hook. This Brewers lineup grinds at-bats, with Jake Bauers and Brice Turang each drawing 90 or more walks this year, and King walked 70 in 185 innings. One long inning could have him near 85 pitches by the fourth. Stammen already showed in this series that he will move fast, and with an off day tomorrow he has cover to empty the bullpen. The one short start in his recent run came September 22 at Dodger Stadium, when he got only 12 outs. I still trust the arm and the situation. Over 14.5 outs.
- GARY'S PICKSAL FRELICKH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
Sal Frelick under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs at -175 needs him to finish with one combined or fewer from the seventh spot, and his season says that is the normal outcome. He is hitting .230 with a .295 on-base and .319 slugging, and his expected numbers based on contact quality sit right beside those, so there is no hidden bad luck waiting to break his way. Against right-handed pitching his OPS is only .640, and he is trending the wrong direction: 7 for 43 over his last 15 games with no runs scored in that stretch.
Getting to two usually takes a hit plus a run or an RBI, and the lineup around him makes that harder. Garrett Mitchell and Christian Yelich bat right ahead of him and have both been cold over the last two weeks, so the traffic in front of him is thin. Behind him are Cooper Pratt and David Hamilton, with seven home runs between them all season, so Frelick on first rarely comes around on one swing. King also handles left-handed hitters well, holding them to a .219 average and .635 OPS this season.
The strongest case against is Frelick's history with King: 5 for 10 with a double in 11 plate appearances. That is a small sample, and it is likely the reason he is starting today after Luis Lara played right field in Game 1. He also rarely strikes out, 38 times in 339 at-bats, so he will put the ball in play three or four times, and a single with an RBI gets him over. I'll lay the price on a light-hitting bat at the bottom of the order. Under 1.5.
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