Marlins at Padres

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  EURY PEREZPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

  MLBMiami Marlins· -196

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 3

  GARY'S TAKE

  I’m taking Eury Pérez over 1.5 walks at -196. He has issued at least two walks in eight consecutive starts, totaling 24 across that stretch, and tonight’s Padres order has a 9% season walk rate collectively. Pérez has also completed more than five innings only twice in those eight starts, but pitch counts of at least 91 in seven of them have consistently given him enough opportunities to reach this number. The strongest concern is the price: -196 requires this to cash roughly two-thirds of the time just to break even. San Diego also has six right-handed hitters in the lineup, and Pérez’s recent control improved against the Dodgers when he walked two over five innings. The repeated two-walk floor still makes the over playable, but the heavy juice keeps my conviction measured.

  ×

  Eury Perez
  Pitcher Walks over 1.5

  -196 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3

  Miami Marlins

  Read Gary’s Take

  I’m taking Eury Pérez over 1.5 walks at -196. He has issued at least two walks in eight consecutive starts, totaling 24 across that stretch, and tonight’s Padres order has a 9% season walk rate collectively. Pérez has also completed more than five innings only twice in those eight starts, but pitch counts of at least 91 in seven of them have consistently given him enough opportunities to reach this number.

  The strongest concern is the price: -196 requires this to cash roughly two-thirds of the time just to break even. San Diego also has six right-handed hitters in the lineup, and Pérez’s recent control improved against the Dodgers when he walked two over five innings. The repeated two-walk floor still makes the over playable, but the heavy juice keeps my conviction measured.

• GARY'S PICK

  DUSTIN HARRISHITS OVER 0.5

  MLBSan Diego Padres· -139

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  I’m taking Dustin Harris over 0.5 hits at -139. Harris bats second, giving him one of San Diego’s best plate-appearance projections, and he has recorded a hit in 10 of his last 15 games. He is 11-for-28 over the last seven days and 14-for-40 over the last 15, including two hits in Friday’s series opener. Pérez has allowed 23 hits across his last three starts and owns a 9.22 ERA over that 13⅔-inning stretch, so Harris should get multiple chances against a starter who has recently struggled to limit traffic. The strongest counterpoint is that Harris has only 102 season at-bats, so his .314 average and recent surge remain relatively small samples. Pérez has also held left-handed batters to a .200 average this season, while Petco Park favors pitching. I’m still willing to lay -139 because Harris is making frequent contact, remains locked into the No. 2 spot and needs only one hit.

  ×

  Dustin Harris
  Hits over 0.5

  -139 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  San Diego Padres

  Read Gary’s Take

  I’m taking Dustin Harris over 0.5 hits at -139. Harris bats second, giving him one of San Diego’s best plate-appearance projections, and he has recorded a hit in 10 of his last 15 games. He is 11-for-28 over the last seven days and 14-for-40 over the last 15, including two hits in Friday’s series opener. Pérez has allowed 23 hits across his last three starts and owns a 9.22 ERA over that 13⅔-inning stretch, so Harris should get multiple chances against a starter who has recently struggled to limit traffic.

  The strongest counterpoint is that Harris has only 102 season at-bats, so his .314 average and recent surge remain relatively small samples. Pérez has also held left-handed batters to a .200 average this season, while Petco Park favors pitching. I’m still willing to lay -139 because Harris is making frequent contact, remains locked into the No. 2 spot and needs only one hit.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.