Padres at Mets

Citi Field takes center stage for Game 2, with the Mets trying to carry last night’s 2-1 victory into another matchup under the lights. I’m taking Mets ML +100 because the starting-pitcher gap is the clearest edge on the board. Zac Thornton brings a 2.78 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, while Robbie Ray enters at 3.28 and 1.33. Over their last three starts, Thornton has a 3.45 ERA with six walks in 15.2 innings; Ray has a 4.20 ERA with nine walks in 15.0 innings. Add Ray’s 4.56 road ERA against Thornton’s 2.63 mark at home, and New York has the cleaner opening setup. Thornton has only eight career starts, so I’m not treating him like a finished product, but at even money his current profile is enough.

The lineup matchup does not push me away from New York. The Mets have a .236 average and .700 OPS against left-handed pitching, compared with San Diego’s .240 and .683. Ray uses his four-seam fastball 34.2% of the time, and that pitch has allowed a .426 xwOBA; Thornton’s primary cutter, used 38.9%, has allowed a .375 xwOBA. Neither starter’s main offering has been untouchable, but Ray’s recent walks and fastball results create the more inviting path. Both clubs are 7-3 over their last ten, while New York has won four straight and leads the season series 3-1. That is not destiny; it confirms that the Mets’ current form has already held up against this opponent.

San Diego’s bullpen is the counterweight. Its current relief group owns a 2.22 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 195.0 innings, compared with New York’s 2.59 and 1.01 over 55.2. Still, the Mets’ relievers have delivered 8.1 scoreless innings across the last three games. My read is that New York gets enough from the starting matchup to hand its bullpen a workable game. At +100, I only need the home side to win. This is a close bet, but the plus-money price properly pays for that uncertainty.