Padres at Rockies

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  MANNY MACHADOHITS UNDER 1.5

  MLBSan Diego Padres· -161

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Machado needs two hits to get this over, and that's not been his game this year. He's averaging 0.8 hits a night across a full season, and even in his best recent stretch he's sitting right around one a game, clearing this number in just 4 of his last 15 outings. The matchup adds to the case: Machado is hitting .216 with a .716 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and Sugano works from the right side. Their history together backs it up too, Machado is 1-for-6 in his career against him. I'm not ignoring the risk. This is Coors Field, Sugano has allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last five starts, and a mistake pitch at altitude finds grass fast. But this is a straight hits prop, not total bases, and even Machado's hot weeks this season haven't come with him collecting two hits a game as a matter of course. The gap between what this number needs and what he's actually doing is wide enough to take the under here.

  ×

  Manny Machado
  Hits under 1.5

  -161 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  San Diego Padres

  Read Gary’s Take

  Machado needs two hits to get this over, and that's not been his game this year. He's averaging 0.8 hits a night across a full season, and even in his best recent stretch he's sitting right around one a game, clearing this number in just 4 of his last 15 outings. The matchup adds to the case: Machado is hitting .216 with a .716 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and Sugano works from the right side. Their history together backs it up too, Machado is 1-for-6 in his career against him.

  I'm not ignoring the risk. This is Coors Field, Sugano has allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last five starts, and a mistake pitch at altitude finds grass fast. But this is a straight hits prop, not total bases, and even Machado's hot weeks this season haven't come with him collecting two hits a game as a matter of course. The gap between what this number needs and what he's actually doing is wide enough to take the under here.

• GARY'S PICK

  XANDER BOGAERTSH+R+RBI UNDER 2.5

  MLBSan Diego Padres· -150

  LOST · ACTUAL 3

  GARY'S TAKE

  This line wants Bogaerts to stack three combined hits, runs, and RBIs in one game, something he's done in only 4 of his last 15 games. His season average on this category is 1.5 per game, and even riding his better recent form he's still averaging under two. He's a .644 OPS hitter overall this year, and batting seventh means he's leaning on the bottom of the order to set the table rather than driving in runs himself, which caps how often he compiles across all three categories in the same game. The counter-argument is obvious: Coors Field inflates everything, and Sugano has been bleeding runs most of September. A single that scores from second on a bad relay throw gets this to three in an instant. But this prop needs more than a hit from him, it needs him to layer a run or an RBI on top of it, and his season-long profile says that combination is the exception rather than the rule. I'll take the under.

  ×

  Xander Bogaerts
  H+R+RBI under 2.5

  -150 · LOST · ACTUAL 3

  San Diego Padres

  Read Gary’s Take

  This line wants Bogaerts to stack three combined hits, runs, and RBIs in one game, something he's done in only 4 of his last 15 games. His season average on this category is 1.5 per game, and even riding his better recent form he's still averaging under two. He's a .644 OPS hitter overall this year, and batting seventh means he's leaning on the bottom of the order to set the table rather than driving in runs himself, which caps how often he compiles across all three categories in the same game.

  The counter-argument is obvious: Coors Field inflates everything, and Sugano has been bleeding runs most of September. A single that scores from second on a bad relay throw gets this to three in an instant. But this prop needs more than a hit from him, it needs him to layer a run or an RBI on top of it, and his season-long profile says that combination is the exception rather than the rule. I'll take the under.

• THE LONG SHOT

  ADAEL AMADORHR OVER 0.5

  MLBColorado Rockies· +730

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Amador is the one player on this board worth paying a long price for. In a small big-league sample, he's hitting .326 with a 1.056 OPS and four home runs in 46 at-bats, a home run about every eleven at-bats, and he's gone deep in 4 of his last 15 games. He's a switch-hitter who's actually done his most damage from the right side against right-handed pitching this year, three home runs in just 22 at-bats, and Mize throws right-handed tonight. Mize has also been giving up homers in bunches lately, eight of his last thirteen runs allowed have left the yard entirely, including a three-homer outing last month. He also gets to do this at Coors Field, a mile above sea level, where fly balls that die everywhere else carry out. He's swinging a hot bat there tonight, batting eighth but still getting multiple looks at the plate. The obvious risk is the sample size, forty-six at-bats can cool off overnight. But at this price I only need part of this pace to be real, and the matchup, the park, and the platoon split all point the same direction.

  ×

  Adael Amador
  HR over 0.5

  +730 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Colorado Rockies

  Read Gary’s Take

  Amador is the one player on this board worth paying a long price for. In a small big-league sample, he's hitting .326 with a 1.056 OPS and four home runs in 46 at-bats, a home run about every eleven at-bats, and he's gone deep in 4 of his last 15 games. He's a switch-hitter who's actually done his most damage from the right side against right-handed pitching this year, three home runs in just 22 at-bats, and Mize throws right-handed tonight. Mize has also been giving up homers in bunches lately, eight of his last thirteen runs allowed have left the yard entirely, including a three-homer outing last month.

  He also gets to do this at Coors Field, a mile above sea level, where fly balls that die everywhere else carry out. He's swinging a hot bat there tonight, batting eighth but still getting multiple looks at the plate. The obvious risk is the sample size, forty-six at-bats can cool off overnight. But at this price I only need part of this pace to be real, and the matchup, the park, and the platoon split all point the same direction.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.