MLB · Thu, Sep 17 · 3:10 PM

Padres at Rockies

O/U 11.5 · RL Padres -1.5 · Coors Field

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rockies· -128

Series finale at Coors Field, Thursday afternoon, Michael King on the hill for a Padres club chasing a Wild Card against Tanner Gordon and a Rockies team playing out the string. Two things carry this pick for me, and both of them are about the innings after the fourth. First, Gordon at this ballpark: I went through his full log, and at home he has given up 14 home runs in 53 innings with a 7.47 ERA, against 4 homers on the road. He has never thrown more than 94 pitches in 30 outings and failed to finish the fifth in each of his last two starts, so the base case is four or five innings and then the handoff. Second, who catches that handoff: a Colorado pen carrying a 7.80 ERA in the tracked sample, which Purple Row reports allowed the most runs of any bullpen in baseball this month, and whose three arms from last night all sit on zero days off after 22, 30 and 15 pitches. Set that against King, who has allowed 5 earned runs over his last 32.2 innings and has gone 96 to 100 pitches every start in that stretch. He is facing a lineup that runs six left-handed bats at a pitcher holding lefties to a .624 OPS over 398 at-bats. If he gives San Diego six or seven, the soft middle of the Padres pen that Colorado beat up on Monday and Tuesday never sees the game, and Miller, Morejon and Rodriguez are all two full days rested for a day game. That is the shape of a game that gets away from the home side late, and with San Diego scoring 6.1 runs a game over its last ten, the run line at -128 is where the price matches the read better than a moneyline near -200. The honest case against me is the park itself. Colorado has scored 19 runs in three games this series, this lineup is better at home than its record suggests, and King's 3.03 ERA is running well ahead of a 4.42 xERA, which tells me the market is paying for a number that is shinier than the underlying contact. A couple of Coors mistakes and this is 8-7 again like Monday. I take San Diego anyway because the xERA gap is a note on the price, not on today, and today's matchup asks Colorado to win four or five innings of bullpen baseball against a rested, elite back end while their own worst arms are the ones most likely to pitch. That is a margin bet, and I will pay the smaller price for it.

Set that against King, who has allowed 5 earned runs over his last 32.2 innings and has gone 96 to 100 pitches every start in that stretch. He is facing a lineup that runs six left-handed bats at a pitcher holding lefties to a .624 OPS over 398 at-bats. If he gives San Diego six or seven, the soft middle of the Padres pen that Colorado beat up on Monday and Tuesday never sees the game, and Miller, Morejon and Rodriguez are all two full days rested for a day game. That is the shape of a game that gets away from the home side late, and with San Diego scoring 6.1 runs a game over its last ten, the run line at -128 is where the price matches the read better than a moneyline near -200.

The honest case against me is the park itself. Colorado has scored 19 runs in three games this series, this lineup is better at home than its record suggests, and King's 3.03 ERA is running well ahead of a 4.42 xERA, which tells me the market is paying for a number that is shinier than the underlying contact. A couple of Coors mistakes and this is 8-7 again like Monday. I take San Diego anyway because the xERA gap is a note on the price, not on today, and today's matchup asks Colorado to win four or five innings of bullpen baseball against a rested, elite back end while their own worst arms are the ones most likely to pitch. That is a margin bet, and I will pay the smaller price for it.

The pick & result

Published pick: Padres -1.5 -128
Published odds: -128
Result: Won
Final score: 9-2

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETRIVERS · 10 moves

Market	Opened Sep 17 12:09 AM	Close Sep 17 12:30 PM	Move
SPREAD	Padres -1.5 (-105)	Padres -2 (-107)	+½
TOTAL	11 (-112)	10.5 (-118)	−½
MONEYLINE	Padres -162	Padres -200	−38

Every move, in order ›

When	Spread	Total	Moneyline
OPENSep 17 12:09 AM	Padres -1.5 (-105)	11 (-112)	Padres -162 · Rockies +133
Sep 17 6:00 AM	Padres -1.5 (-108)	11 (-120)	Padres -167 · Rockies +138
Sep 17 7:15 AM	Padres -1.5 (-104)	11 (-112)	Padres -159 · Rockies +133
Sep 17 9:00 AM	Padres -1.5 (-109)	11 (-115)	Padres -175 · Rockies +143
Sep 17 10:01 AM	Padres -2 (+100)	11 (-118)	Padres -190 · Rockies +155
Sep 17 10:18 AM	Padres -1.5 (-117)	10.5 (-121)	Padres -182 · Rockies +150
Sep 17 10:32 AM	Padres -2 (-103)	11 (-112)	Padres -195 · Rockies +160
Sep 17 10:48 AM	Padres -2 (-103)	11 (-118)	Padres -190 · Rockies +155
Sep 17 11:00 AM	Padres -1.5 (-120)	11 (-121)	Padres -186 · Rockies +155
Sep 17 12:12 PM	Padres -2 (-104)	11 (-117)	Padres -195 · Rockies +160
CLOSESep 17 12:30 PM	Padres -2 (-107)	10.5 (-118)	Padres -200 · Rockies +165

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Michael King: 1.42 ERA over his last 3 starts
1.42
Michael King has a 1.42 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 13 strikeouts across 19 innings in his last three starts. His season marks are a 3.03 ERA and 1.15 WHIP entering San Diego at Colorado.

HEAT CHECK

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1.160 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.160
Fernando Tatis Jr. has a 1.160 OPS over the last 15 days in 53 AB. That is 0.339 above his .821 season OPS.
Jackson Merrill: 1.056 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.056
Jackson Merrill has a 1.056 OPS over the last 15 days in 51 AB. That is 0.313 above his .743 season OPS.

COOLING OFF

Mickey Moniak: .450 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael King
.450
Mickey Moniak has a .450 OPS over the last 15 days in 33 AB, down from his .767 season mark. He faces RHP Michael King with an .817 OPS against righties across 298 AB.

HR THREAT

Cole Carrigg
+760
Gary's Take Cole Carrigg is the one player on this board I'll chase at plus money for a single swing. He's hit three home runs in his last seven days and four in his last fifteen games, and three of those have come in this very series against San Diego pitching — off Bradgley Rodriguez in Monday's win, then off Walker Buehler and Randy Vásquez in Tuesday's loss.

BULLPEN

Colorado Rockies pen: 13.2 relief IP across 3 games
13.2 IP
5 of those innings came from Ryan Feltner on Sep 15 (61 pitches). Juan Mejia worked 2 games (38 pitches); Jordan Romano worked 1 game (16 pitches; 5.16 season ERA over 29.2 IP). The pen allowed 5 ER in that 13.2-IP span (Sep 14–Sep 16).

FIRST INNING

YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of SD @ COL
YRFI
A run was scored by either team in the first inning in 7 of 10 sampled COL games and 8 of 10 sampled SD games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Tanner Gordon: 1.74 ERA, .250 opponent AVG across 10.1 IP, 0 HR; Michael King: 1.50 ERA, .140 opponent AVG across 30.0 IP, 2 HR.

RUNNING GAME

Colorado Rockies like to run — Luis Campusano (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
34% CS
Colorado attempts 0.9 steals per game. Luis Campusano has thrown out 15 of 44 runners, a 34% caught-stealing rate, pairing Colorado’s running frequency with his record controlling the bases.

BALLPARK

Tanner Gordon owns a 7.47 ERA at Coors Field — 3.25 everywhere else
7.47
Tanner Gordon has a 7.47 ERA in 11 games and 53.0 IP at Coors Field, versus 3.25 in 44.1 IP everywhere else; hitters bat .323 against him here. The split does not isolate the park’s effect from Gordon’s performance.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Padres are 10-2 vs Rockies this season
10-2
San Diego is 10-2 against Colorado across 12 meetings this season and won the last one 9-3. No pitcher, venue or game-by-game context is supplied to connect that record to tonight at Colorado.

REPLACEMENT

Samad Taylor (.757 vs RHP) replaces Ramon Laureano at LF tonight
.770
Samad Taylor has a .757 OPS against righties in 77 AB, below his .770 season line. He replaces Ramon Laureano in left field and bats ninth tonight against RHP Tanner Gordon; his hip report dates back five days.

REGRESSION

Ty France: .294 AVG vs .255 xBA
.255
Across 456 plate appearances, Ty France has a .294 AVG versus a .255 xBA, with a .373 wOBA versus a .333 xwOBA. Both results exceed his contact-quality estimates entering SD-COL, but the facts do not establish whether that gap closes tonight.
TJ Rumfield: .300 AVG vs .263 xBA
.263
Across 597 plate appearances, TJ Rumfield has a .300 AVG versus a .263 xBA, with a .375 wOBA versus a .336 xwOBA. Both results exceed his contact-quality estimates entering SD-COL, but the facts do not establish whether that gap closes tonight.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored September 17, 2026 at 10:18 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanatics, fanduel, betmgm, caesars, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
XANDER BOGAERTSHITS UNDER 1.5
MLBSan Diego Padres· -187
LOST · ACTUAL 3
Xander Bogaerts is in the middle of the worst full season of his career, a .222 average and a .644 OPS, and it gets worse specifically against the right-handers he'll see tonight in Tanner Gordon — .218 with a .651 OPS in 358 at-bats against RHP this year. Over his last fifteen games, batting sixth for San Diego, he's had a multi-hit game exactly twice; everything else has been zero or one. His season rate of 0.8 hits per game says the same thing in a bigger sample, and he's 2-for-9 in this series already. This is a bet on his volume of contact, not a verdict on his ability, and the whole shape of his year supports it. Where I could be wrong: he's hit .320 over his last week, a real step forward in form, and Gordon has actually been hit hard by right-handed batters as a group this season, a .321 average allowed, in a park at Coors Field that inflates balls in play for everybody. But that hot week for Bogaerts has mostly been one big day mixed into a run of quiet ones rather than a change in his day-to-day shape — multi-hit games are still the exception — and I'm comfortable laying the price on that pattern holding for one more afternoon.
Xander Bogaerts
Hits under 1.5
-187 · LOST · ACTUAL 3
San Diego Padres
Xander Bogaerts is in the middle of the worst full season of his career, a .222 average and a .644 OPS, and it gets worse specifically against the right-handers he'll see tonight in Tanner Gordon — .218 with a .651 OPS in 358 at-bats against RHP this year. Over his last fifteen games, batting sixth for San Diego, he's had a multi-hit game exactly twice; everything else has been zero or one. His season rate of 0.8 hits per game says the same thing in a bigger sample, and he's 2-for-9 in this series already. This is a bet on his volume of contact, not a verdict on his ability, and the whole shape of his year supports it.
Where I could be wrong: he's hit .320 over his last week, a real step forward in form, and Gordon has actually been hit hard by right-handed batters as a group this season, a .321 average allowed, in a park at Coors Field that inflates balls in play for everybody. But that hot week for Bogaerts has mostly been one big day mixed into a run of quiet ones rather than a change in his day-to-day shape — multi-hit games are still the exception — and I'm comfortable laying the price on that pattern holding for one more afternoon.
THE LONG SHOT
COLE CARRIGGHR OVER 0.5
MLBColorado Rockies· +760
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Cole Carrigg is the one player on this board I'll chase at plus money for a single swing. He's hit three home runs in his last seven days and four in his last fifteen games, and three of those have come in this very series against San Diego pitching — off Bradgley Rodriguez in Monday's win, then off Walker Buehler and Randy Vásquez in Tuesday's loss. He's a switch-hitter batting third who's actually been the more dangerous version of himself from the right side against right-handers this season, .255 with an .838 OPS and 7 home runs in 161 at-bats, roughly one every 23 tries, and tonight he draws a right-hander in Michael King. He's an everyday player getting his four-plus trips to the plate, and he's doing all of this at Coors Field, the easiest park in the sport to leave the yard, which is also where nearly all of this recent power has shown up. The case against it: King has been the best pitcher on either roster across his last five starts, five earned runs in 32.2 innings, and he doesn't hand out much hard contact on the season — an 8.5 percent barrel rate and a 32.9 percent hard-hit rate allowed. Right-handed hitters have managed just 7 home runs against him in 231 at-bats, so the underlying power number here is modest before you even get to Carrigg specifically. A home run is also a variance event by nature — three homers in fifteen games is a hot stretch, not a new baseline, and stretches like this tend to cool. I'm paying the long price because the recent power, the platoon split and the park all point the same way, not because I expect it on any one swing.
Cole Carrigg
HR over 0.5
+760 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Colorado Rockies
Cole Carrigg is the one player on this board I'll chase at plus money for a single swing. He's hit three home runs in his last seven days and four in his last fifteen games, and three of those have come in this very series against San Diego pitching — off Bradgley Rodriguez in Monday's win, then off Walker Buehler and Randy Vásquez in Tuesday's loss. He's a switch-hitter batting third who's actually been the more dangerous version of himself from the right side against right-handers this season, .255 with an .838 OPS and 7 home runs in 161 at-bats, roughly one every 23 tries, and tonight he draws a right-hander in Michael King. He's an everyday player getting his four-plus trips to the plate, and he's doing all of this at Coors Field, the easiest park in the sport to leave the yard, which is also where nearly all of this recent power has shown up.
The case against it: King has been the best pitcher on either roster across his last five starts, five earned runs in 32.2 innings, and he doesn't hand out much hard contact on the season — an 8.5 percent barrel rate and a 32.9 percent hard-hit rate allowed. Right-handed hitters have managed just 7 home runs against him in 231 at-bats, so the underlying power number here is modest before you even get to Carrigg specifically. A home run is also a variance event by nature — three homers in fifteen games is a hot stretch, not a new baseline, and stretches like this tend to cool. I'm paying the long price because the recent power, the platoon split and the park all point the same way, not because I expect it on any one swing.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every MLB game this day The MLB record Today's MLB picks Every sport this day