A nor'easter pushed this series into a Friday doubleheader in the Bronx. Game 1 matches Trevor Rogers against a Yankees club that is already locked into the top Wild Card seed and is treating this afternoon like a tune-up. I think this game is decided by which side has to cover more innings, and it isn't close. Rogers has averaged 6.6 innings per start lately, with 39 strikeouts against 3 walks over his last five. The market is pricing his 4.07 ERA, not the 3.54 xERA underneath it, so Baltimore isn't being asked to pay for a fragile number. Brendan Beck was recalled today with 7.2 big-league innings to his name. His Triple-A 2.93 ERA says he belongs, but it doesn't say he will pitch deep. That puts the middle of this game on a Yankees bullpen that Boone said he'd be "very selective" with ahead of October. Michael Fulmer threw 28 pitches yesterday, and Tim Hill has worked two straight days. The two arms who covered four innings yesterday were optioned today, and Game 2 still needs covering later tonight. Baltimore's bullpen had off days on both sides of a light doubleheader. It posted a 2.70 ERA over the recent tracked window, compared with 3.95 for New York. With Brandon Young announced for Game 2, the Orioles have nothing to save. On top of that, the Yankees are resting Wells, Bellinger, Chisholm and McMahon. Pete Alonso, chasing the home run title with a .919 OPS against right-handers, gets a right-handed spot starter and whatever relievers follow him. The best argument against me is real. Rogers allows a .756 OPS and 18 homers to right-handed hitters. New York stacks seven of them, with Paul Goldschmidt and his .990 OPS against lefties leading off. Baltimore has scored just 2.4 runs a game over its last five. But about 75% of the at-bats against Rogers this season have already come from righties, so his season line already carries that weakness. Behind Goldschmidt and Rice, the rest of this Yankees lineup slugs between .301 and .426. At essentially even money, I'll take the steadier starter and the rested bullpen over a team that is using this game to get ready for October.
A nor'easter pushed this series into a Friday doubleheader in the Bronx. Game 1 matches Trevor Rogers against a Yankees club that is already locked into the top Wild Card seed and is treating this afternoon like a tune-up. I think this game is decided by which side has to cover more innings, and it isn't close. Rogers has averaged 6.6 innings per start lately, with 39 strikeouts against 3 walks over his last five. The market is pricing his 4.07 ERA, not the 3.54 xERA underneath it, so Baltimore isn't being asked to pay for a fragile number. Brendan Beck was recalled today with 7.2 big-league innings to his name. His Triple-A 2.93 ERA says he belongs, but it doesn't say he will pitch deep.
That puts the middle of this game on a Yankees bullpen that Boone said he'd be "very selective" with ahead of October. Michael Fulmer threw 28 pitches yesterday, and Tim Hill has worked two straight days. The two arms who covered four innings yesterday were optioned today, and Game 2 still needs covering later tonight. Baltimore's bullpen had off days on both sides of a light doubleheader. It posted a 2.70 ERA over the recent tracked window, compared with 3.95 for New York. With Brandon Young announced for Game 2, the Orioles have nothing to save. On top of that, the Yankees are resting Wells, Bellinger, Chisholm and McMahon. Pete Alonso, chasing the home run title with a .919 OPS against right-handers, gets a right-handed spot starter and whatever relievers follow him.
The best argument against me is real. Rogers allows a .756 OPS and 18 homers to right-handed hitters. New York stacks seven of them, with Paul Goldschmidt and his .990 OPS against lefties leading off. Baltimore has scored just 2.4 runs a game over its last five. But about 75% of the at-bats against Rogers this season have already come from righties, so his season line already carries that weakness. Behind Goldschmidt and Rice, the rest of this Yankees lineup slugs between .301 and .426. At essentially even money, I'll take the steadier starter and the rested bullpen over a team that is using this game to get ready for October.
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