Orioles at Mets

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  SEAN MANAEAK'S UNDER 6.5

  MLBNew York Mets· -140

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 6

  GARY'S TAKE

  Manaea's strikeout total has cratered since an eleven-punchout outing back on August 9 — seven, four, three, two, four across his five turns since — and his season average of 5.1 strikeouts a start sits well under this 6.5 line regardless. His last three outings make the same point from a different angle: 16.1 innings, 9 strikeouts, an ERA over 8.00, and a most recent start that lasted just five innings on 61 pitches. Hitters are putting the ball in play early instead of chasing anything. Baltimore isn't an easy lineup to swing-and-miss through — Cowser and Mayo both strike out in better than a third of their at-bats against the league as a whole, and Henderson isn't far off — but that says more about this Orioles lineup than it does about what Manaea has been able to do to hitters lately. Four straight starts have finished south of this number, and his shrinking pitch counts make it hard to picture him working deep enough tonight to change that. I'm taking the under.

  ×

  Sean Manaea
  K'S under 6.5

  -140 · CASHED · ACTUAL 6

  New York Mets

  Read Gary’s Take

  Manaea's strikeout total has cratered since an eleven-punchout outing back on August 9 — seven, four, three, two, four across his five turns since — and his season average of 5.1 strikeouts a start sits well under this 6.5 line regardless. His last three outings make the same point from a different angle: 16.1 innings, 9 strikeouts, an ERA over 8.00, and a most recent start that lasted just five innings on 61 pitches.

  Hitters are putting the ball in play early instead of chasing anything. Baltimore isn't an easy lineup to swing-and-miss through — Cowser and Mayo both strike out in better than a third of their at-bats against the league as a whole, and Henderson isn't far off — but that says more about this Orioles lineup than it does about what Manaea has been able to do to hitters lately.

  Four straight starts have finished south of this number, and his shrinking pitch counts make it hard to picture him working deep enough tonight to change that. I'm taking the under.

• GARY'S PICK

  SHANE BAZPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

  MLBBaltimore Orioles· -160

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 7

  GARY'S TAKE

  Baz is sitting at 5.8 hits allowed per start this season, well clear of this 4.5 number, and he's cleared it in five of his last eight outings. Tonight's lineup problem is specific: the Mets are sending out five left-handed bats plus Lindor from the switch side, and lefties have hit .276 with a .781 OPS against Baz this year compared to .237 and .626 for righties. That's a real platoon hole, and this Mets group is built to work it — Ewing is 16-for-43 over his last 15 days, Soto is riding a .980 OPS over the last week, and both hit left-handed. Citi Field plays big and suppresses home runs, but it does far less to stop a single or a double from finding grass, so the park isn't much of a shield here. This same stretch of starts already includes a nine-hit outing at Minnesota, so swings on this number are already part of his record. I'll lay the price and take the over.

  ×

  Shane Baz
  Pitcher Hits Allowed over 4.5

  -160 · CASHED · ACTUAL 7

  Baltimore Orioles

  Read Gary’s Take

  Baz is sitting at 5.8 hits allowed per start this season, well clear of this 4.5 number, and he's cleared it in five of his last eight outings. Tonight's lineup problem is specific: the Mets are sending out five left-handed bats plus Lindor from the switch side, and lefties have hit .276 with a .781 OPS against Baz this year compared to .237 and .626 for righties.

  That's a real platoon hole, and this Mets group is built to work it — Ewing is 16-for-43 over his last 15 days, Soto is riding a .980 OPS over the last week, and both hit left-handed. Citi Field plays big and suppresses home runs, but it does far less to stop a single or a double from finding grass, so the park isn't much of a shield here.

  This same stretch of starts already includes a nine-hit outing at Minnesota, so swings on this number are already part of his record. I'll lay the price and take the over.

• THE LONG SHOT

  COBY MAYOHR OVER 0.5

  MLBBaltimore Orioles· +390

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Mayo has hit 16 of his 23 home runs this season against left-handed pitching, in just 136 at-bats — a 1.115 OPS split that dwarfs what he does against right-handers. Manaea is exactly that matchup tonight. He's also been the hottest bat in this lineup over the last week: four home runs in his last 24 at-bats and a five-homer stretch over his last 15 days. Citi Field plays as a pitcher's park that leans against home runs generally, but Manaea has already allowed 16 home runs in just 16 starts this year, so that suppression hasn't been showing up in his own results. At this price I only need this matchup to hit a fraction as often as it has been showing up lately to make it worth taking. I'll back Mayo for the homer.

  ×

  Coby Mayo
  HR over 0.5

  +390 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Baltimore Orioles

  Read Gary’s Take

  Mayo has hit 16 of his 23 home runs this season against left-handed pitching, in just 136 at-bats — a 1.115 OPS split that dwarfs what he does against right-handers. Manaea is exactly that matchup tonight.

  He's also been the hottest bat in this lineup over the last week: four home runs in his last 24 at-bats and a five-homer stretch over his last 15 days. Citi Field plays as a pitcher's park that leans against home runs generally, but Manaea has already allowed 16 home runs in just 16 starts this year, so that suppression hasn't been showing up in his own results.

  At this price I only need this matchup to hit a fraction as often as it has been showing up lately to make it worth taking. I'll back Mayo for the homer.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.