Orioles at Rays
O/U 7.5 · RL Rays -1.5
Rays ML-141
CONF 64%
LLostFinal 4-3
The read
The roof is closed at the Trop, Baltimore owns the first game, and Tampa Bay walks in trying to answer after its nine-game heater finally broke. This has the feel of a tight divisional game that gets decided after the starters leave.
Ian Seymour’s changeup is the separator for me against a Baltimore order loaded with right-handed bats. Pete Alonso is scorching, but Seymour has suppressed righties all year, and the Orioles become much easier to navigate after the heart of the lineup. Kyle Bradish can keep Tampa Bay quiet early, but the Rays’ contact and speed should force him to earn every out.
The deciding edge is the bullpen. Tampa Bay has Bryan Baker waiting after he never appeared Friday, while Baltimore’s relief corps nearly squandered a four-run ninth-inning lead and has been getting punished lately. I’m paying the -141 instead of asking the Rays to cover because Bradish and the pitcher-friendly park can keep this close. Rays on the moneyline.
Props on this game
2Ian SeymourOVER 6.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-122
WActual 9
Baltimore strikes out more than nine times per game, and this lineup gives Ian Seymour six right-handed bats to attack. That is his best lane: righties are hitting just .195 against him, while his changeup owns a 41.9% whiff rate. Seymour has reached seven strikeouts in each of his last two starts, both across six innings. With Tampa Bay needing length after Friday’s bullpen game, I expect enough runway to clear 6.5.
Kyle BradishUNDER 4.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-120
WActual 3
This Tampa Bay lineup is built to spoil the strikeout pitch. The Rays average only 7.11 strikeouts per game, and Diaz, Hicks, Mullins, Palacios and Walls have all been making consistent contact. Kyle Bradish has finished with four or fewer strikeouts in four consecutive starts, including both of his recent six-inning outings. He can pitch effectively here without missing enough bats to reach five.
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