Sports Picks Archive — Saturday, August 15, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs White Sox· -135

Saturday afternoon at Comerica, first place is within shouting distance and Detroit is trying to answer after getting punched in the series opener. This has the feel of a tense divisional game where the starting pitchers control the temperature. Troy Melton is the separator. He has allowed no earned runs across his last 20 innings, Detroit is 6-0 in his last six starts, and his cutter-slider-splitter mix is built to disrupt a Chicago lineup leaning heavily on left-handed power. I’m willing to bet that Friday’s White Sox eruption does not carry cleanly into the day game. Anthony Kay has pitched well, but right-handed hitters have produced an .838 OPS against him, and Detroit can send eight right-handed bats into this matchup. Add the Tigers’ fresher, stronger bullpen and home field, and I make Detroit a little better than the -135 price implies. I’ll pay for the moneyline rather than ask this lineup to cover two runs.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cardinals· +102

Clouds over Wrigley, a light breeze carrying toward left, and a rivalry game with Chicago chasing Milwaukee. I’m backing the Cubs to win with room. The starting-pitcher matchup decided it. Matthew Boyd blanked St. Louis for seven innings just 17 days ago, while Michael McGreevy was tagged for seven runs in 1 2/3 innings by these Cubs the previous night. Chicago’s lineup is rolling, Suzuki and Bregman are driving the baseball, and McGreevy’s hittable fastball-cutter combination is a dangerous fit against them. I considered taking the run with a live Cardinals club, especially with Boyd facing a right-handed-heavy order. But I’m not paying -122 for protection against the better team. At plus money, I’ll accept the variance and bet Chicago’s edge in the rotation, lineup and bullpen to produce a multi-run win.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· +119

Overcast skies, marine air, and a Saturday afternoon at Oracle Park—the kind of setting where one clean starting-pitching performance can control the whole game. Logan Webb is the separator. He has allowed three earned runs across his last 20 innings, while Michael Lorenzen enters with three strikeouts, seven walks, and 12 earned runs over his last three starts. San Francisco can also attack Lorenzen with six left-handed bats; lefties have posted a 1.033 OPS against him, and his sinker and cutter have been punished all season. I’m laying the run instead of paying -167 because the Giants need to win this matchup decisively for their moneyline to hold value. Webb’s length limits exposure to the bullpen, and Lorenzen’s short-start pattern could force Colorado’s 5.56-ERA relief group to cover four or five innings. At plus money, Giants -1.5 is the sharper way to back the enormous pitching mismatch.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Nationals· -130

Saturday afternoon at Citi Field, the wind is pushing in from right and the Mets are trying to turn a late-season surge into something real. This has the feel of a tight game that New York gradually takes control of. Sean Manaea is the separator. He has allowed five earned runs across his last 19 innings, and his sweeper should be difficult for Washington’s right-heavy lineup after a quick turnaround from Friday night. Brad Lord has thrown only five innings across his two starts, so the Nationals will likely need another extended bullpen game—and that relief group has allowed 13 earned runs over its last 27 innings. I considered the Mets run line, but their depleted lineup and Citi Field’s run suppression make laying 1.5 unnecessarily ambitious. Washington’s strong road record keeps my stake measured, yet New York has the better starter, the steadier current bullpen and enough hot bats near the top to win without needing margin. I’ll pay the manageable price and take the Mets straight up.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Orioles· -141

The roof is closed at the Trop, Baltimore owns the first game, and Tampa Bay walks in trying to answer after its nine-game heater finally broke. This has the feel of a tight divisional game that gets decided after the starters leave. Ian Seymour’s changeup is the separator for me against a Baltimore order loaded with right-handed bats. Pete Alonso is scorching, but Seymour has suppressed righties all year, and the Orioles become much easier to navigate after the heart of the lineup. Kyle Bradish can keep Tampa Bay quiet early, but the Rays’ contact and speed should force him to earn every out. The deciding edge is the bullpen. Tampa Bay has Bryan Baker waiting after he never appeared Friday, while Baltimore’s relief corps nearly squandered a four-run ninth-inning lead and has been getting punished lately. I’m paying the -141 instead of asking the Rays to cover because Bradish and the pitcher-friendly park can keep this close. Rays on the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Reds· -102

Warm Saturday night in Cincinnati, short porch waiting, with storms nearby and two right-handers trying to survive a park that punishes mistakes. After Friday’s 1-0 squeeze, this one should have more movement. Singer’s weakness against left-handed bats decides it for me. Miami can stack Marsee, Conine, Caissie, Mack and Pauley around switch-hitter Xavier Edwards, and Conine is seeing the ball too well to ignore. Singer has allowed a .849 OPS and 16 homers to lefties, so his solid home record doesn’t scare me off. Gusto is vulnerable, but Cincinnati’s right-heavy lineup runs into his better platoon split, and several Reds are cold outside the dangerous Stewart-Stephenson-Suárez pocket. Miami also has the fresher leverage options after using only Ekness last night. At essentially an even price, I’ll take the slightly better matchup and put my $100 on Miami.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Guardians· +105

Saturday night at Progressive Field, warm air drifting toward left and a Cleveland club trying to stop a train. San Diego arrives with six straight wins and the sharper heartbeat. The price decides it for me. The Padres are the better current team yet are catching plus money, with a lineup built to punish Joey Cantillo’s weakness against right-handed bats. Tatis is driving the ball, France and Campusano are scorching, and Bogaerts has rediscovered his damage stroke. Cantillo’s changeup and curve can miss bats, but his fastball is hittable and San Diego has enough lineup depth to make every mistake expensive. Wandy Peralta opening before Randy Vásquez adds uncertainty, but Cleveland’s .662 OPS against lefties limits the early danger, and its lineup has repeatedly failed to finish scoring chances. If this is close after six, I want the Padres’ deeper bullpen and better defense. I’m taking the hotter, more complete club without laying a tax: Padres moneyline at +105.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Twins· -133

Overcast skies hang above Target Field, with October pressure following both clubs into Saturday night. Philadelphia arrives off a statement win, while Minnesota is trying to answer with Buxton back in the lineup. The bet starts with Jesús Luzardo. Minnesota is weaker against left-handed pitching, and its right-heavy lineup must solve a sweeper generating elite swing-and-miss results. Luzardo has also been exceptional away from Philadelphia, while Connor Prielipp’s reverse split puts Schwarber, Harper and Stott in favorable spots. I’m laying the modest price instead of chasing Philadelphia’s run line. Prielipp has pitched better at Target Field, and the uncertain weather adds enough variance to keep a close game in play. But the Phillies own the stronger starting-pitcher matchup and the more trustworthy late-inning bridge to Duran. My $100 is on Philadelphia to win.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mariners· -119

Saturday night in Houston, roof shut, division race tightening. Seattle walks back into Daikin Park less than 24 hours after watching a two-run lead disappear in a five-run walk-off avalanche. Hayden Wesneski has stretched from 5⅔ to six to seven innings in his three starts, and Houston has won all three. That length matters because both bullpens worked hard Friday. Emerson Hancock owns the better season numbers, but his last three starts have featured 25 hits in 15⅔ innings. Houston’s right-handed bats get a favorable park shape, while Yordan Alvarez gives the lineup its most dangerous counterpunch. I’m laying the short money instead of chasing Houston’s +162 run line. Seattle is missing Taylor Ward and two shortstops, its closer just absorbed a 23-pitch meltdown, and the club is 2-8 over its last ten with a 24-37 road record. The Astros have the stronger lineup, the steadier bullpen baseline and the starter trending in the better direction. At -119, that is enough for my hundred.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Pirates· -116

Saturday night at PNC Park, warm air, almost no wind, and Pittsburgh looking to carry Friday’s fireworks into Game 2. Boston sends its veteran anchor to the mound with the road trip nearing its end. The bet comes down to the starting-pitching gap. Sonny Gray can disrupt a Pirates lineup that is vulnerable to chase with his sweeper and curveball, while Jared Jones has shortened in consecutive starts and now faces a Boston order capable of grinding through high velocity. If Jones exits early again, Boston also owns the more trustworthy late-inning bullpen. Pittsburgh is dangerous right now, especially with Rafael Flores Jr. scorching the baseball, but I’m not paying for a two-game offensive eruption when Gray is the opposing starter. At only -116, Boston’s advantages on the mound outweigh its road struggles. I’m putting the $100 on the Red Sox moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Diamondbacks· -133

The heat is hanging over Truist Park, Atlanta is coming off a home shutout, and the Diamondbacks arrive without Ketel Marte in the middle of their order. This has the feel of a tight game that eventually bends toward the home club. Arizona has struggled against right-handed pitching, and Marte’s absence removes its best counterweight. Grant Holmes has sharpened his command during 12 consecutive scoreless innings, while his slider and curveball are well suited to disrupt the Carroll-Perdomo-Moreno section of this lineup. Eduardo Rodriguez is good enough to make me respect the underdog, but Atlanta owns the deeper lineup and the better late-game setup tonight. Arizona already leaned on Juan Morillo and Brandyn Garcia on Friday, while Raisel Iglesias and Dylan Lee are rested. I’ll pay -133 for the Braves to rebound.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Dodgers· -122

Late-afternoon sun over Chavez Ravine, wind drifting toward center, and the National League’s two best records sharing the stage. This one belongs to the arms. Jacob Misiorowski is the separator. His fastball can erase the top of this Dodgers order, and his curveball gives even elite hitters no comfortable speed to hunt. Justin Wrobleski has allowed 15 earned runs in his last three starts, with declining length and too much damaging contact. Milwaukee does not need a huge offensive night; it needs Chourio, Vaughn and Sánchez to cash in a few mistakes. I considered the Brewers run line, but Turang’s absence, the lineup’s recent inconsistency and Uribe’s injury make laying 1.5 too ambitious. The Dodgers can keep this close at home, yet their best late-inning arms are taxed and Díaz is unavailable. At -122, I’ll pay the modest premium for the enormous starting-pitching advantage without demanding Milwaukee win by multiple runs.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Angels· +142

Saturday night in Anaheim, the marine layer settling over the outfield and two last-place clubs playing loose. This has the feel of another game decided in the final three innings. Reid Detmers is the better strikeout arm, but -153 is too much for an Angels team that has lost all six of his latest starts. Kansas City’s right-handed lineup fits this matchup, Salvador Perez is back at DH, and Jac Caglianone is seeing the ball too well for me to assume a lefty automatically cools him down. Randy Dobnak’s low-whiff profile is dangerous, but his ground-ball approach plays behind the superior defense. Kansas City also owns the cleaner recent bullpen form and has already shown it can win the late matchup. These teams are too close for the Royals to be priced like a 41% proposition, so I’m taking the full plus-money swing.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rangers· +143

Saturday night in Sacramento, warm air hanging over a small ballpark, and Texas arrives carrying four straight losses. The Rangers are fighting for October; the A’s are loose, dangerous, and already landed the first punch in this series. J.T. Ginn decided this for me. He limits barrels, has delivered three consecutive quality starts, and has allowed four earned runs across 18⅓ innings in his last three. Texas has scored only 11 runs over its last five games, while Ginn’s sinker-changeup combination is built to frustrate a lineup pressing for one big swing. Gore is rolling, but his 5.48 road ERA matters in this park, especially against a lineup with McNeil, Gelof, and Butler seeing the ball well. Texas may be the better club, but -154 is a tax I won’t pay on a cold team with a compromised rotation and a worn, unreliable bullpen. Oakland has beaten Texas six times in ten meetings, Ginn’s team won both of his starts against the Rangers, and +143 gives me enough cushion to accept the volatility. My $100 is on the Athletics to win outright.

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GARY'S PICK

NFLvs Eagles· -110

Saturday night in Baltimore opens the Jesse Minter era, with the Ravens hosting an Eagles team beginning its own offensive transition. The franchise quarterbacks are spectators, the depth charts are taking center stage, and that makes more than a field goal meaningful. I’m taking Baltimore +3.5 at -106. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Zay Flowers are sitting for Baltimore, while Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are sitting for Philadelphia. That brings Tyler Huntley and Andy Dalton into the central comparison. Philadelphia also enters with the more crowded game-night injury report—15 active listings against Baltimore’s seven—with current absences including DeVonta Smith and Cooper DeJean. The market knew this was a preseason opener, but the actual depth available still matters when reserves will decide most of the game. Philadelphia is also installing Sean Mannion’s new offense, creating another variable for Dalton and the units following him. My read is that this is too generous a number for Philadelphia in a game carrying this much rotation uncertainty. The Eagles may have the better roster in the market’s eyes, but laying beyond a field goal asks their changing lineup to produce a clean, sustained advantage on the road. Baltimore has the home setting, fewer listed availability problems, and the emotional focus of a new head coach’s debut. Minter has talked about seeing whether the identity established in camp appears during live action; in this particular spot, I trust that urgency more than I trust Philadelphia to justify the favorite’s price. I do not need Baltimore to prove it is the superior team. I need the Ravens to stay inside a volatile preseason game, and +3.5 gives me the side of the number I want.

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GARY'S PICK

NFL@ Seahawks· -108

Saturday night at Lumen Field, the defending champions open their preseason against a Dallas team using the stage to audition its next men up. With Sam Darnold and Dak Prescott resting, quarterback evaluation takes center stage—and I’m taking Dallas +2.5. Dallas enters with a planned half-by-half backup rotation, while Seattle intends to devote extensive work to a developmental quarterback. That structure matters in a preseason game with no current performance sample separating the reserve units. Seattle has the lighter injury report, with five players out compared with nine for Dallas, and that is the clearest argument for laying the points. Dallas’ list also includes two offensive linemen and one defensive tackle, so its depth concerns are real. But Seattle’s absences are concentrated in the backfield: Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price are out, leaving its first three running-back options unavailable. Dallas still lists Javonte Williams and Jaydon Blue as active. With prominent receivers Jaxon Smith-Njigba and CeeDee Lamb also being withheld, neither team can lean on its established offensive identity. The market is asking Seattle to cover just under a field goal at home, with the championship label providing a powerful backdrop. My read is that the premium is too rich for a game controlled by backup quarterbacks, uncertain playing time and developmental priorities. Dallas has a defined quarterback audition and a coaching staff placing clear importance on defensive competition. Its turnover-heavy joint practice is not proof of what happens tonight, but the evaluation urgency is genuine. I don’t need Dallas to be the better full-strength team; I need its reserve operation to justify taking points against a Seattle offense installing a new system with a depleted backfield. At +2.5, Dallas is the ticket.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

TROY MELTONPITCHER HITS ALLOWED UNDER 4.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -120

Melton has held opponents to four or fewer hits in seven of his last eight starts, including just 10 hits across his current 20-inning scoreless run. That is backed by season-long opponent averages of .175 from left-handed hitters and .167 from right-handed hitters. Chicago’s left-handed-heavy lineup is dangerous, but Melton’s cutter, slider and splitter give him multiple ways to avoid barrels. Comerica’s dimensions and the wind coming in provide another layer of protection. I’m betting Friday’s offensive eruption meets a much tougher assignment here.

GARY'S PICK

SPENCER TORKELSONSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +140

Torkelson has recorded a single in 11 of his last 15 games while batting .392 over that stretch. The way he is producing matters: his recent contact has included only one barrel, and he has not homered in his last 15 games. He is consistently taking what pitchers give him rather than relying on one big swing. Anthony Kay has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .278 with an .838 OPS, and Torkelson’s 11% chase rate should help him get something in the zone. At plus money, I prefer the single to laying a heavy price on his basic hit prop.

GARY'S PICK

BRAD LORDPITCHER OUTS UNDER 11.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -120

Brad Lord is still easing his way back from a month-long stint on the injured list for side tightness, and Washington is treating his starts as open-ended bullpen games rather than traditional rotation outings. He threw 53 pitches over 2.1 innings on July 1 and followed that up with 51 pitches over 2.2 innings on August 9 against Cincinnati. The Nationals have a parade of multi-inning relievers waiting behind him, including Will Dion and Trevor Williams, specifically designed to bridge the middle frames. Asking Lord to log 12 full outs on a pitch count capped right around 50 to 55 pitches would require absurd efficiency. I'm taking the under on his outs line before the bullpen takes over.

GARY'S PICK

CARSON BENGEH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBNew York Mets· -108

Carson Benge has locked down the cleanup spot in New York's order with an impressive stretch of late-summer hitting. The rookie outfielder is batting .375 with a 1.006 OPS over his past 15 contests, clearing 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs in 11 of those 15 games. He is making consistently hard contact—averaging 93.6 mph in exit velocity recently—and gets a prime matchup against Brad Lord and a heavily taxed Washington bullpen. With Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette setting the table directly in front of him, Benge should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs or cross the plate himself. Getting this line at nearly even money is a solid value.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL LORENZENPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -159

Lorenzen's inability to pitch deep into ballgames isn't a temporary bump in the road—it's been the story of his season. He has failed to reach 16 outs in 19 of his 24 starts (79%), including four consecutive short outings where he hasn't even completed five innings. His bloated 1.88 WHIP keeps him working out of high-pitch-count jams, and today's matchup only amplifies the problem. San Francisco is rolling out six left-handed batters against him, a side of the plate that has tagged Lorenzen for a ridiculous 1.033 OPS and 13 home runs over 260 at-bats. Expect the Giants to work deep counts early and push him out of this game before the sixth inning.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE ELDRIDGEH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· -119

Eldridge is swinging one of the hottest bats in the San Francisco lineup right now, topping this 1.5 HRR threshold in nine of his last 15 games while homering in back-to-back contests. Sitting in the middle of the order at the three-spot, the rookie southpaw gets a massive platoon advantage against Lorenzen, who has been completely defenseless against left-handed hitter contact (.354 average allowed). With Rafael Devers reaching base ahead of him and Jung Hoo Lee backing him up, Eldridge will see plenty of run-producing situations to cash this prop.

GARY'S PICK

IAN SEYMOURK'S OVER 6.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· -122

Baltimore strikes out more than nine times per game, and this lineup gives Ian Seymour six right-handed bats to attack. That is his best lane: righties are hitting just .195 against him, while his changeup owns a 41.9% whiff rate. Seymour has reached seven strikeouts in each of his last two starts, both across six innings. With Tampa Bay needing length after Friday’s bullpen game, I expect enough runway to clear 6.5.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE BRADISHK'S UNDER 4.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· -120

This Tampa Bay lineup is built to spoil the strikeout pitch. The Rays average only 7.11 strikeouts per game, and Diaz, Hicks, Mullins, Palacios and Walls have all been making consistent contact. Kyle Bradish has finished with four or fewer strikeouts in four consecutive starts, including both of his recent six-inning outings. He can pitch effectively here without missing enough bats to reach five.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN GUSTOPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -105

Gusto has completed five innings in only two of his last eight starts, and he was pulled after four innings and 60 pitches last time out. Miami has consistently treated him like a short-stint starter, so I’m betting against a sudden workload expansion. The possibility of a mid-game weather interruption adds another path to an early exit. At nearly even money, I’ll take him to record no more than 14 outs.

GARY'S PICK

BRADY SINGERPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 5.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +105

Miami sends six batters to the left side against Singer, whose season line against left-handed hitters sits at a .297 average and an .849 OPS. He has allowed at least six hits in three of his last four starts, and his durability should give this lineup enough plate appearances to clear the number. Miami also owns a .253 average against right-handers. I like getting plus money on six hits.

GARY'S PICK

LUIS CAMPUSANOHITS OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -140

Campusano is 13-for-32 over his last 15 days and has recorded a hit in 11 of his last 15 games. The quality supports the results: a 94.6 mph recent average exit velocity, a nine percent whiff rate and two more doubles Friday night. He gets the platoon edge against Cantillo and does not need extra-base damage to cash this.

GARY'S PICK

FERNANDO TATIS JR.TOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +125

Tatis has cleared this in nine of his last 15 games, with five home runs during that stretch and a 95.3 mph recent average exit velocity. Cantillo’s four-seamer has allowed a .309 average and carries a .373 xwOBA, while right-handed hitters have done the most damage against him. With Tatis leading off and the wind helping balls toward left, plus money on two bases is worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

JESUS LUZARDOK'S OVER 6.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +102

I want the plus price on Luzardo recording at least seven strikeouts. He has cleared this line in six of his last eight starts, including 12 last time out, and he routinely works deep enough to create the necessary volume. His sweeper owns a 47.9% whiff rate, giving him a dominant finishing pitch against a Minnesota lineup with swing-and-miss pockets in the middle and at the bottom. Seven strikeouts is a fair target; getting plus money makes it a bet.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE HARPERWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -105

Harper has drawn a walk in 11 of his last 15 games, including seven total over Philadelphia's last four. His 22% recent chase rate shows that the patience behind that run is intact. Connor Prielipp has issued seven walks across his last three starts, and his struggles against left-handed hitters give him another reason to work carefully with Harper. At nearly even money, one free pass is worth backing.

GARY'S PICK

HAYDEN WESNESKIPITCHER OUTS OVER 15.5

MLBHouston Astros· +110

Wesneski has recorded 17, 18 and 21 outs in his three starts, increasing his workload each time while throwing no more than 83 pitches. Seattle has averaged only 2.2 runs over its last ten games, and its weakened lineup gives him a clean path through five innings. Houston also used five relievers Friday, with several leverage arms working for a second straight game day. The Astros need length, Wesneski has already cleared this number in every start, and getting plus money on just 16 outs is the best price on the board.

GARY'S PICK

CAL RALEIGHHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· +110

Raleigh is 5-for-39 over the last 15 days and has gone without a hit in nine of his last 15 games. He is batting seventh tonight, which can leave him with only three plate appearances if Houston controls the game. The matchup also works against his current swing. Raleigh carries a 35% recent whiff rate, while Wesneski's sweeper has generated a 40.6% whiff rate and is his most-used pitch. With plus money attached to Raleigh's prolonged slump and lower lineup position, I'll take the hitless night.

GARY'S PICK

JARED JONESPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +154

Jones has completed five innings in only four of his last eight starts, and his workload is moving in the wrong direction. He lasted four innings against Milwaukee and three against the Mets, allowing 14 earned runs across his last 13 innings. Boston has enough patient left-handed bats to extend innings and force Jones to work beyond his fastball-slider combination. I only need him removed before recording the final out of the fifth, and +154 is an excellent price on an outcome that has cashed in consecutive starts.

GARY'S PICK

SONNY GRAYPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -165

Gray has recorded at least 18 outs in seven of his last eight starts, including six innings in each of his first two August outings. His six-pitch mix gives him several ways through a lineup, and his sweeper and curveball are particularly useful against Pittsburgh's chase tendencies. PNC Park and the nearly still conditions also favor run prevention. The price is substantial, but six completed innings is the expectation for Boston's veteran anchor tonight.

GARY'S PICK

EDUARDO RODRIGUEZPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 3.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -160

Rodriguez has allowed four earned runs in only five of his 24 starts, and his 2.49 road ERA travels well into this matchup. Atlanta can still win without getting to him for a crooked number, especially with Rodriguez holding left-handed hitters to a .643 OPS. His changeup gives him an answer for the Braves’ best lefty bats, so I’m taking him to keep the damage at three earned runs or fewer.

GARY'S PICK

GERALDO PERDOMOSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -109

Perdomo is seeing the ball as well as anyone in Arizona’s lineup, batting .415 over the last 15 days and collecting a hit in 12 of his last 15 games. The encouraging part for this market is how repeatable his contact has been: a 4% recent whiff rate and disciplined approach give him several paths to putting a playable ball in the field. Holmes has been sharp, but Perdomo’s bat-to-ball skill makes one single at nearly even money worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

JACOB MISIOROWSKIK'S OVER 8.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -120

Misiorowski has reached nine strikeouts in five of his last six starts, including 31 over his last 18 innings. His 100.6 mph fastball and high-whiff curveball attack the swing-and-miss in Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy and Teoscar Hernandez especially well. I expect enough length to give him a clean shot at nine, and -120 is a reasonable price for the most overpowering starter in baseball.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE BAUERSWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +176

Bauers has drawn a walk in 10 of his last 15 games while chasing only 23 percent of pitches in his recent sample. He is also carrying a .939 OPS over the last 15 days, giving Wrobleski a reason to work carefully with him in the cleanup spot. Wrobleski's command and efficiency have deteriorated during his three-start skid. At +176, I only need one patient plate appearance.

THE LONG SHOT

JAC CAGLIANONEHR OVER 0.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +420

I’m riding the hottest power bat on the board at a price that still offers value. Caglianone has five homers in his last 15 games, including one against a left-hander here last night, and his recent contact features a 95.4 mph average exit velocity with four barrels. Detmers has allowed 17 homers this season, while the mild wind blowing toward center gives well-struck contact a little help. The chase rate adds volatility, but +420 pays me to accept it.

THE LONG SHOT

LAWRENCE BUTLERHR OVER 0.5

MLBOakland Athletics· +800

The price is doing the heavy lifting here. Butler has homered in three straight games and five of his last 15, backed by three barrels and nine hard-hit balls in his recent contact. MacKenzie Gore has been sharp lately, and the left-on-left matchup adds risk, but his 5.48 road ERA and 42.1% hard-hit rate leave an opening in a warm, hitter-friendly park. I would not chase Butler at a typical home-run price; at +800, the upside compensates for the matchup.

GARY'S PICK

RANDY DOBNAKPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBKansas City Royals· -121

Five complete innings still cashes this under, and Dobnak has recorded 16 outs only once in his five starts. He has needed at least 90 pitches in four of those outings, while his whiff rate has declined from 29% in his second start to 13% last time out. That leaves very little margin against an Angels lineup whose first three hitters have consistently reached base lately. Dobnak can survive contact with ground balls, but the combination of traffic, limited swing-and-miss stuff and a quick hook makes Under 15.5 outs my favorite angle.

GARY'S PICK

JAC CAGLIANONETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +145

I’m betting the quality of Caglianone’s contact, not simply chasing Friday’s box score. He has cleared this number in 10 of his last 15 games, producing four homers in the last seven with a 95.4 mph recent average exit velocity. Detmers’ slider is the difficult part of this matchup, but his four-seamer remains vulnerable and accounts for nearly half his pitches. Caglianone also handled left-handed pitching Friday, taking one southpaw deep and collecting another RBI hit against a second. At +145, one extra-base hit is enough, and the price properly compensates me for the matchup risk.

GARY'S PICK

J.T. GINNPITCHER OUTS OVER 16.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -111

Ginn has completed at least six innings in three consecutive starts, and 17 outs is enough to cash this. Texas has scored only 11 runs over its last five games and owns a .701 OPS against right-handed pitching. Oakland also has every reason to extend Ginn after its bullpen posted a 7.71 ERA over the last seven games. He limits barrels, keeps the ball on the ground and should be working with a manageable pitch count against this cold lineup.

GARY'S PICK

WYATT LANGFORDHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +180

Langford is 5-for-46 over the last 15 days and has produced no barrels with an 84.2 mph average exit velocity in his recent contact sample. That is weak enough form for me to challenge an inflated reputation-based price. Ginn has held right-handed hitters to a .180 average and .519 OPS this season. Langford can get four trips from the cleanup spot and still finish hitless; at +180, I only need that to happen a little more than one-third of the time.

Research

174

BULLPENSEA @ HOU
Houston Astros pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houston’s bullpen is running on fumes after 16.3 relief innings in three games, with several premium arms likely unavailable. If Seattle forces an early pitching change, the middle and late innings tilt toward the Mariners.
PLATOON EDGECOL @ SF
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Michael Lorenzen (RHP), batting 1st
Gilbert leading off against a right-hander is exactly the setup I want for his left-handed bat. He should get maximum exposure to Lorenzen and has a strong chance to start trouble immediately.
P 3-for-4, 6 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGESEA @ HOU
Brendan Donovan (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Donovan gets his preferred split against Wesneski and the leadoff spot guarantees him every possible opportunity to use it. I expect him to make the right-hander work and give Seattle an early traffic builder.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
TEAM RECORDCHW @ DET
Tigers 7-1 in Troy Melton's last 8 starts
Detroit has won seven straight Melton starts, and I trust the formula again at home. The Tigers are my side against the White Sox tonight.
TEAM RECORDSTL @ CHC
Cubs 7-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts
The Cubs keep delivering when Boyd starts, winning seven of his last eight outings. That dependable team support gives Chicago a meaningful edge at home against St. Louis.
TEAM RECORDARI @ ATL
Braves 7-1 in Grant Holmes's last 8 starts
Atlanta has won seven straight Holmes starts and repeatedly finds a way to finish behind him. I like the Braves to carry that rhythm into tonight’s home matchup.
PACE & SCRIPTMIN @ NYG
MIN @ NYG carries a 23.5 market total
The current fanduel total is 23.5, 11 points below the 34.5 median across 7 games with posted totals on this slate.
TEAM RECORDKC @ LAA
Angels 1-7 in Reid Detmers's last 8 starts
The Angels have lost seven straight Detmers starts, which is too persistent a pattern for me to ignore. Kansas City is the more attractive side tonight.
FANTASY USAGELAR @ KC
Puka Nacua: 11.8 tgt/g in the 2025 baseline
Puka Nacua averaged 11.8 targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Puka Nacua is currently active for LAR; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. LAR faces KC next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side won; final 20-12
STARTER FORMMIL @ LAD
Justin Wrobleski: 9.88 ERA over his last 3 starts
A 9.88 ERA across three starts tells me Wrobleski is in a genuine downturn, not coming off one bad night. Milwaukee has a strong path to early runs and an overworked Dodgers bullpen.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ CIN
Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 4th against Brady Singer (RHP)
Conine owns the right-handed matchup, and batting cleanup gives him the best chance to turn that edge into runs. If Miami puts anyone aboard against Singer, Conine is the bat positioned to do the damage.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADSEA @ HOU
Mariners are 7-2 vs Astros this season
Seattle’s 7-2 season edge deserves acknowledgment, but it does not reveal a repeatable matchup advantage. I’m treating it as supporting context rather than a reason to bet the Mariners.
FANTASY USAGEPHI @ BAL
Derrick Henry: 22.6 opp/g in the 2025 baseline
Derrick Henry averaged 22.6 carries plus targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Derrick Henry is currently active for BAL; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. BAL faces PHI next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side won; final 7-24
PACE & SCRIPTJAX @ NO
JAX @ NO carries a 44.5 market total
The current fanduel total is 44.5, 10 points above the 34.5 median across 7 games with posted totals on this slate.
PACE & SCRIPTDAL @ SEA
DAL @ SEA carries a 24.5 market total
The current fanduel total is 24.5, 10 points below the 34.5 median across 7 games with posted totals on this slate.
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ NYM
Brady House (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
House hitting third against Manaea puts his strong side of the platoon split in an immediate run-producing spot. If Washington’s first two hitters create traffic, he is well positioned to cash it in.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
STREAKSD @ CLE
SD have won 6 straight
San Diego Padres have won 6 straight, outscoring teams by 19 runs over the run; 8-2 across their last 10.
P team lost 1-6
PACE & SCRIPTCLE @ CHI
CLE @ CHI carries a 44.5 market total
The current fanduel total is 44.5, 10 points above the 34.5 median across 7 games with posted totals on this slate.
PLATOON EDGEBAL @ TB
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Baltimore is putting Mayo’s damage against lefties exactly where it belongs: in the cleanup spot. If the top of the order reaches against Seymour, Mayo has a prime first-inning RBI opportunity.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ NYM
Dylan Crews (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Crews gets Manaea from his preferred side and will see him immediately from the leadoff spot. That gives Washington its best chance to create early traffic and maximize Crews’s opportunities.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGECOL @ SF
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Devers batting second against Lorenzen gives San Francisco an immediate focal point in a favorable split. He can extend a rally behind Gilbert or create the first scoring threat himself.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
FANTASY USAGEDAL @ SEA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 10.4 tgt/g in the 2025 baseline
Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged 10.4 targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Jaxon Smith-Njigba is currently active for SEA; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. SEA faces DAL next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side lost; final 17-7
FANTASY USAGEPHI @ BAL
Saquon Barkley: 20.8 opp/g in the 2025 baseline
Saquon Barkley averaged 20.8 carries plus targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Saquon Barkley is currently active for PHI; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. PHI faces BAL next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side lost; final 7-24
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ LAD
Andrew Vaughn (bats R) hits 3rd against Justin Wrobleski (LHP)
Vaughn’s production against lefties makes him the Milwaukee bat I want attacking Wrobleski. From the third spot, he should receive early chances to turn baserunners into runs.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
TEAM RECORDBOS @ PIT
Red Sox 6-2 in Sonny Gray's last 8 starts
Boston has won six of Gray’s last eight starts, making his turn a consistently profitable team spot. Against Pittsburgh, I’m comfortable backing the Red Sox.
TEAM RECORDBOS @ PIT
Pirates 2-6 in Jared Jones's last 8 starts
Pittsburgh is 2-6 in Jones’s last eight starts, with no meaningful sign that the team trend is turning. Boston is the side I want tonight.
TEAM RECORDSEA @ HOU
Mariners 2-6 in Emerson Hancock's last 8 starts
Seattle has lost four straight Hancock starts and six of his last eight overall. That makes the Mariners difficult to trust in Houston, even with their season-series success.
TEAM RECORDMIA @ CIN
Marlins 2-6 in Ryan Gusto's last 8 starts
Miami is 2-6 across Gusto’s last eight starts and has repeatedly failed to put complete games together behind him. Cincinnati is my preferred side at home.
COOLING OFFMIA @ CIN
Otto Lopez: .419 OPS in Last 15 Days
Lopez’s .419 OPS is ugly, but I’m not letting a 15-day slump erase his larger body of work. He interests me as a buy-low bat against Cincinnati.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGENYY @ TOR
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 4th against Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Over 211 AB vs. Right, Jesus Sanchez owns a .790 OPS versus .366 in 29 AB the other way. He sees RHP Cam Schlittler tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGENYY @ TOR
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Over 238 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .744 OPS versus .400 in 49 AB the other way. He sees RHP Cam Schlittler tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
FANTASY USAGEJAX @ NO
Chris Olave: 9.6 tgt/g in the 2025 baseline
Chris Olave averaged 9.6 targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Chris Olave is currently active for NO; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. NO faces JAX next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side lost; final 24-20
PLATOON EDGECHW @ DET
Munetaka Murakami (bats L) hits 2nd against Troy Melton (RHP)
Murakami gets the platoon advantage against Melton while batting second, guaranteeing him a prominent role immediately. He is Chicago’s best early threat against the right-hander.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSToronto Blue Jays — week of 8/10
Dylan Cease
Cease had Boston at home Tuesday and gets the Yankees at home Sunday. With a 2.74 xERA, I'm treating the entire two-start turn as foundational. PLAN_AROUND
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/10
Logan Henderson
Henderson's Monday trip to San Diego is behind us, with Sunday's visit to the Dodgers closing the scoring week. A 2.70 xERA keeps this a plan-around arm for me. PLAN_AROUND
STARTER FORMBOS @ PIT
Jared Jones: 9.69 ERA over his last 3 starts
Jones has been hit hard while providing little length, posting a 9.69 ERA over his last three starts. Boston has a clear opportunity to do damage before Pittsburgh can settle into the game.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
FANTASY USAGEJAX @ NO
Travis Etienne Jr.: 18.6 opp/g in the 2025 baseline
Travis Etienne Jr. averaged 18.6 carries plus targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Travis Etienne Jr. is currently active for NO; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. NO faces JAX next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side lost; final 24-20
PLATOON EDGEBAL @ TB
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 4th against Kyle Bradish (RHP)
Over 299 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .896 OPS versus .534 in 84 AB the other way. He sees RHP Kyle Bradish tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB, 2 BB
PACE & SCRIPTCAR @ BUF
CAR @ BUF carries a 42.5 market total
The current fanduel total is 42.5, 8 points above the 34.5 median across 7 games with posted totals on this slate.
COOLING OFFNYY @ TOR
Ben Rice: .492 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rice’s .492 OPS marks a sharp slump, but his season work still matters more to me than the last 15 days. I see a buy-low opportunity if Toronto and the market are treating this cold stretch as his new level.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
FANTASY USAGECAR @ BUF
James Cook III: 17.8 opp/g in the 2025 baseline
James Cook III averaged 17.8 carries plus targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms James Cook III is currently active for BUF; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. BUF faces CAR next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side won; final 14-29
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/10
Tarik Skubal
Skubal opened Monday at home against Kansas City and finishes Sunday at home against Milwaukee. The 3.01 xERA gives me no reason to move away from the full week. PLAN_AROUND
HEAD-TO-HEADBAL @ TB
Orioles are 6-3 vs Rays this season
Baltimore’s 6-3 record against Tampa Bay provides a little confidence, but several of these games have offered very little separation. It is a supporting note for the Orioles, not a decisive edge.
COOLING OFFMIL @ LAD
Tommy Edman: .379 OPS in Last 15 Days
Edman’s .379 OPS shows a slump with real weight, and his timing needs a reset. His broader track record keeps me from fading him automatically, but I need a conservative price tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADWSH @ NYM
Nationals are 8-5 vs Mets this season
Washington’s 8-5 edge over New York has not produced a clear, repeatable matchup explanation. I’m filing the season series under history rather than using it to pick tonight’s winner.
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/10
Paul Skenes
Skenes visited Miami on Tuesday and has Boston at home Sunday. At a 3.13 xERA, he's an easy arm to build the week around. PLAN_AROUND
COOLING OFFBOS @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .531 OPS in Last 15 Days
Valdez is far below his season level with a .531 OPS over the last 15 days. I see a young hitter pressing through a results rut, making him a speculative buy-low option at home.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFKC @ LAA
Vaughn Grissom: .376 OPS in Last 15 Days
Grissom’s .376 OPS reflects a serious loss of rhythm, and his season baseline does not promise a dramatic correction. Any buy-low play needs to stay small and disciplined.
COOLING OFFARI @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: .526 OPS in Last 15 Days
Baldwin’s .526 OPS has lasted long enough to respect, but his season baseline still points toward considerably more offense. I’m more interested in buying the depressed form than automatically fading him against Arizona.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFKC @ LAA
Zach Neto: .428 OPS in Last 15 Days
Neto’s .428 OPS reflects a meaningful timing and decision-making slump, not necessarily a permanent decline. He is a rebound candidate tonight, especially if his price has fully absorbed the cold spell.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
FANTASY MATCHUPCAR @ BUF
James Cook III's team carries a 29 implied total
fanduel puts BUF versus CAR in one of this slate's stronger scoring environments. That is market context for a player who cleared the usage gate in the labeled 2025 baseline, not a coverage grade or projection.
P Edge side won; final 14-29
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/10
Blake Snell
Snell had Kansas City at home Tuesday and draws Milwaukee at home Sunday. That 2.34 xERA is the best mark on this list, so I'm riding the complete turn. PLAN_AROUND
TWO STARTSColorado Rockies — week of 8/10
Gabriel Hughes
Hughes went to Arizona on Monday and is listed at San Francisco on Sunday. His 3.03 xERA puts him firmly in my weekly plan. PLAN_AROUND
REGRESSIONKC @ LAA
Randy Dobnak: 2 ERA vs 4.78 xERA
Dobnak’s 2.00 ERA is doing too much work for a profile with few missed bats, considerable hard contact and a 4.78 xERA. I expect the Angels to begin pushing those results back toward reality.
P 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
HR THREATRoyals @ Angels
Jac Caglianone
Gary's Take I’m riding the hottest power bat on the board at a price that still offers value. Caglianone has five homers in his last 15 games, including one against a left-hander here last night, and his recent contact features a 95.4 mph average exit velocity with four barrels.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB
COOLING OFFNYY @ TOR
Heliot Ramos: .376 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Braydon Fisher
Ramos owns a .376 OPS over the last 15 days and gets Fisher from his less productive side. With no clear matchup boost, I’m keeping expectations low.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TWO STARTSSan Francisco Giants — week of 8/10
Blade Tidwell
Tidwell hosted Houston on Monday and gets Colorado at home Sunday. A 3.15 xERA makes him part of the plan across both listed starts. PLAN_AROUND
CLOSER WATCHCOL @ SF
Ryan Walker / JT Brubaker
San Francisco is favored at home, so this is a live save spot. Ryan Walker is fully rested, but JT Brubaker is only one save back, making the ninth inning unsettled. Hold Walker and roster Brubaker where possible; this committee can produce saves for either arm this week.
CLOSER WATCHKC @ LAA
Samy Natera Jr. / Jose Fermin
The Angels are favored at home, giving this bullpen a live save chance tonight. Samy Natera Jr. is fully rested, though Jose Fermin remains within two saves and has five holds. Prioritize Natera, but Fermin is a worthwhile speculative add for managers aggressively chasing saves.
COOLING OFFSD @ CLE
Brayan Rocchio: .361 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rocchio’s .361 OPS suggests his at-bats are genuinely out of sync. Against a surging San Diego club, I prefer a modest angle rather than betting aggressively on an immediate turnaround.
COOLING OFFBOS @ PIT
Bryan Reynolds: .536 OPS in Last 15 Days
Reynolds is cold, but a .536 OPS over 15 days does not outweigh his established level for me. He is a straightforward buy-low candidate at home if the market is overly focused on recent results.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STREAKTEX @ OAK
TEX games have gone UNDER 4 straight
The under has cashed 4 in a row in TEX games: 6 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 8. Tonight's number sits at 9.5.
P final total 8 vs 9.5
COOLING OFFNYY @ TOR
Ernie Clement: .456 OPS in Last 15 Days
Clement’s recent .456 OPS sits well below the level he has established over the full season. I lean toward a rebound rather than assuming this cold stretch has become his new standard.
P 2-for-2, 2 TB
COOLING OFFTEX @ OAK
Wyatt Langford: .476 OPS in Last 15 Days
Langford’s .476 OPS stands out sharply against his season baseline. I’m treating Oakland as a plausible starting point for the correction.
P 3-for-4, 6 TB
STREAKKC @ LAA
KC have lost 4 straight
KC have lost 4 straight and been outscored by 12 over the run. Last 10: 3-7.
P team lost 0-1
STREAKKC @ LAA
LAA games have gone UNDER 4 straight
The under has cashed 4 in a row in LAA games: 6 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 8. Tonight's number sits at 8.
P final total 1 vs 8
HR THREATRangers @ Athletics
Lawrence Butler
Gary's Take The price is doing the heavy lifting here. Butler has homered in three straight games and five of his last 15, backed by three barrels and nine hard-hit balls in his recent contact.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECHW @ DET
Andrew Benintendi (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Benintendi gets his preferred matchup against a right-hander while hitting cleanup. That combination puts his RBI and total-base markets in play if Chicago creates traffic ahead of him.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Angels — week of 8/10
Reid Detmers
Detmers hosted Texas on Monday, with Kansas City at home Saturday as the other listed start. The 3.49 xERA is enough for me to use the full two-start volume. STREAM_BOTH
FANTASY USAGEMIN @ NYG
Justin Jefferson: 7.2 tgt/g in the 2025 baseline
Justin Jefferson averaged 7.2 targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Justin Jefferson is currently active for MIN; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. MIN faces NYG next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
P Edge side won; final 13-10
BULLPENCHW @ DET
Chicago White Sox pen: 16.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago’s bullpen has logged 16.7 innings in three games, though the work is spread broadly enough to leave several normal options available. Detroit’s opportunity is to chase the starter early and force that group into another extended night.
COOLING OFFMIL @ LAD
Garrett Mitchell: .484 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (49 PA) he is at a .484 OPS, down 0.265 from his .749 season mark.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
COOLING OFFMIA @ CIN
Xavier Edwards: .494 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brady Singer
Edwards is cold, but his larger profile is steady enough to keep a rebound possible. Singer gets the better side of the matchup, making this more of a buy-low thought than a strong play.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
TOMORROWCOL @ SF
Gabriel Hughes: 5.61 ERA vs 3.03 xERA
Hughes’s 5.61 ERA looks harsh beside a 3.03 xERA, limited barrels and an opponent average running above expectation. I’m buying a cleaner outing against San Francisco.
COOLING OFFCHW @ DET
Colson Montgomery: .513 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Troy Melton
Colson Montgomery's .513 OPS over the last 15 days (52 PA) trails his .719 season mark, down 0.206. Tonight he draws RHP Troy Melton — his weaker side: a .673 OPS vs RHP across 296 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
TOMORROWCOL @ SF
Gabriel Hughes: 5.61 ERA vs 3.03 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs SF. A 5.61 ERA against a 3.03 expected ERA (2.58 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .246 vs .215 expected.
HEAD-TO-HEADTEX @ OAK
Athletics are 6-4 vs Rangers this season
Oakland’s 6-4 record against Texas is relevant background, especially after another convincing win. The series remains competitive enough that I still need stronger support before calling it a true matchup edge.
CLOSER WATCHNYY @ TOR
David Bednar
David Bednar owns the ninth for the Yankees — 27 saves this season (next closest: Ryan Yarbrough with 2).
HEAD-TO-HEADKC @ LAA
Royals are 4-2 vs Angels this season
Kansas City’s 4-2 edge against the Angels is a modest confidence point, but the latest one-run finish showed how thin the margin can be. I would not build a Royals bet around the season series alone.
HEAD-TO-HEADBOS @ PIT
Pirates are 3-1 vs Red Sox this season
Pittsburgh’s 3-1 record against Boston comes from too small a sample to carry much betting weight. Four meetings will not drive my decision tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADNYY @ TOR
Yankees are 7-5 vs Blue Jays this season
The Yankees’ 7-5 edge over Toronto is modest, and the latest meeting showed this series can quickly change shape. I view the head-to-head record as secondary to tonight’s pitching matchup.
UPCOMING GAMESNCAAF
Next college slate · AUG 29
BDL lists 6 verified FBS-vs-FBS games on the next college slate. All 6 kickoff times are confirmed.
REGRESSIONPHI @ MIN
Edmundo Sosa: .218 AVG vs .283 xBA
Sosa’s .218 average sits well below his .283 expected mark, making him a clear positive-regression bat. I want to back his contact against Minnesota through a hit or reach-base angle before the market catches up.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONARI @ ATL
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.7 ERA vs 4.78 xERA
Rodriguez has managed contact reasonably well, but his modest strikeout rate and favorable gap between actual and expected opponent average leave room for correction. Atlanta is a dangerous place for that 2.70 ERA to start climbing.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
REGRESSIONSTL @ CHC
Michael McGreevy: 3.64 ERA vs 5.68 xERA
McGreevy’s low strikeout rate and damaging contact profile do not support a 3.64 ERA, especially with his xERA at 5.68. I expect the Cubs to force the regression tonight.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
CUT LISTSTL tonight
Michael McGreevy
That 3.64 ERA looks rosterable, but the 5.68 xERA says McGreevy has pitched far worse than the surface result. A start tonight isn't enough reason to keep trusting that gap. CUT
STARTER FORMTEX @ OAK
MacKenzie Gore: 1.96 ERA over his last 3 starts
Gore has combined command, strikeouts and limited baserunners during a 1.96-ERA stretch. Texas is facing a starter who currently controls innings instead of merely escaping them.
P 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
STARTER FORMBAL @ TB
Ian Seymour: 1.62 ERA over his last 3 starts
Seymour’s 1.62 ERA over three starts is backed by missed bats and limited traffic. Baltimore is catching him at his sharpest, and I trust his current form more than the older season line.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
BULLPENKC @ LAA
Kansas City Royals pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Kansas City can survive its recent bullpen workload if the starter supplies length, but several important options are unavailable or carrying repeat work. An early exit would give the Angels a chance to pressure the wrong relievers in important innings.
BATTER VS ARMBAL @ TB
Yandy Diaz vs Kyle Bradish: .421
Diaz’s .421 history against Bradish comes from a sample large enough to matter, and his recent steadiness makes it easier to trust. I expect him to look comfortable and give Tampa Bay a strong chance to put a runner aboard.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
BALLPARKPHI @ MIN
At Target Field, Connor Prielipp pitches to a 3.86 ERA
Prielipp’s 3.86 ERA and low opponent average at Target Field point to genuine comfort at home. I expect another steadier performance there against Philadelphia.
P 5 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
TOMORROWTEX @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 5.38 ERA vs 3.42 xERA
Lopez’s soft-contact profile and 3.42 xERA are far more encouraging than his 5.38 ERA. I’m backing the underlying work to produce a better result against Texas.
TOMORROWTEX @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 5.38 ERA vs 3.42 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TEX. A 5.38 ERA against a 3.42 expected ERA (1.96 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .263 vs .209 expected.
REGRESSIONSD @ CLE
Luis Campusano: .317 AVG vs .265 xBA
Campusano’s .317 average is running ahead of his .265 expected mark, so I do not want to pay for the surface production. Against Cleveland, I prefer a fade on his hit-based props.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTHOU tonight
Hayden Wesneski
Wesneski's 3.86 ERA is doing a lot of work here. The 5.43 xERA points to serious trouble underneath, and tonight's start doesn't erase the season-long warning. CUT
STARTER FORMCOL @ SF
Logan Webb: 1.35 ERA over his last 3 starts
Webb has posted a 1.35 ERA over his last three starts by controlling traffic and owning the pace of each game. Colorado is walking into a spot where clean scoring opportunities should be scarce.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
BALLPARKMIA @ CIN
Brady Singer owns a 3.53 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 5.75 everywhere else
Singer’s 3.53 ERA at Great American Ball Park comes over enough work to respect, and his opponent average supports the split. I expect the home version of Singer to show up against Miami.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
REGRESSIONCHW @ DET
Troy Melton: 1.46 ERA vs 3.06 xERA
Melton’s 1.46 ERA is due for some correction, but the 3.06 xERA, low WHIP and controlled contact still describe a strong pitcher. I like the foundation against Chicago even if he is not quite as dominant as the surface number.
P 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
REGRESSIONBAL @ TB
Chandler Simpson: .306 AVG vs .260 xBA
Simpson’s .306 average is well ahead of his .260 expected mark, suggesting ordinary contact has been finding too many holes. Against Baltimore, I prefer the under on a hit-based prop.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
CUT LISTCOL tonight
Michael Lorenzen
There isn't even a shiny surface number to defend Lorenzen. A 6.83 ERA backed by a 6.10 xERA is exactly the profile I want off my season-long roster, start tonight or not. CUT
FANTASY PICKUPSSTL @ CHC
Seiya Suzuki
Pickup vs Michael McGreevy (5.68 xERA) — .849 OPS, bats 2nd.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/15
Carter Baumler
Baumler is on Texas’ 60-day IL with a rib injury. His listed return date is today, but that’s a roster listing, not a guarantee. The 3.18 ERA keeps him interesting if you have room. WATCH; stash only with an open IL spot.
REGRESSIONSD @ CLE
Ty France: .298 AVG vs .252 xBA
France’s .298 average has outpaced his .252 expected mark enough to make him a sell-high bat. I’d rather oppose another strong hitting result against San Diego than pay for the surface numbers.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ SF
Rafael Devers
Pickup vs Michael Lorenzen (6.1 xERA) — .788 OPS, bats 2nd.
REGRESSIONBOS @ PIT
Jared Jones: 5.03 ERA vs 3.62 xERA
Jones’s strikeouts and 3.62 xERA point toward better results than his 5.03 ERA, but the barrel rate keeps the rebound case from being clean. I see upside against Boston, though I would demand a favorable price.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
REGRESSIONCOL @ SF
Mickey Moniak: .267 AVG vs .222 xBA
Mickey Moniak's .267 average comes against a .222 expected (xBA) on 315 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .360 against a .297 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
BALLPARKSTL @ CHC
At Wrigley Field, Matthew Boyd pitches to a 4.54 ERA
Boyd’s 4.54 ERA at Wrigley and higher opponent average there make the home venue a legitimate concern. His team keeps winning his starts, but I expect St. Louis to create more offense than his road form would suggest.
P 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ SF
Bryce Eldridge
Pickup vs Michael Lorenzen (6.1 xERA) — .776 OPS, bats 3rd.
BULLPENSD @ CLE
San Diego Padres pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego’s bullpen is stretched after 13 innings in three games, with Rodriguez and Estrada likely unavailable. Cleveland’s best path is to force an early hook and attack the Padres’ thinner middle-inning plan.
PARK WEATHERMIL @ LAD
Wind blowing out 10 mph at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium tonight
A 10 mph wind blowing out at Dodger Stadium gives both lineups extra reward for getting the ball airborne. With the total set low, one or two wind-assisted drives could change this game quickly.
P final total 5 vs 7.5 (over lean)
STARTER FORMARI @ ATL
Grant Holmes: 1.62 ERA over his last 3 starts
Holmes has allowed very little early while posting a 1.62 ERA over his last three starts. I trust his current run prevention to give Atlanta control against Arizona.
P 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
PARK WEATHERSTL @ CHC
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Wrigley Field tonight
Conditions at Wrigley Field: Cloudy, 75°, wind 10 mph, Out To LF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 9.
P final total 12 vs 9 (over lean)
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ SF
Jung Hoo Lee
Pickup vs Michael Lorenzen (6.1 xERA) — .759 OPS, bats 4th.
BALLPARKBOS @ PIT
Jared Jones owns a 5.82 ERA at PNC Park — 3.96 everywhere else
Jones’s 5.82 ERA at PNC Park shows that the damage has carried extra weight at home even when opponents have not collected many hits. Boston has more scoring upside tonight than his home opponent average initially suggests.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
HEAD-TO-HEADCHW @ DET
White Sox are 4-3 vs Tigers this season
Chicago’s 4-3 edge over Detroit reflects a close series rather than a stable matchup advantage. I’m treating the head-to-head record as noise tonight.
REGRESSIONARI @ ATL
Grant Holmes: 3.47 ERA vs 4.75 xERA
Holmes’s 3.47 ERA is difficult to trust alongside a 4.75 xERA, elevated WHIP and concerning hard-contact profile. Arizona has a real chance to interrupt his recent run of clean results.
P 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
CUT LISTSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Still hitting 2nd for SD — 0.597 OPS, 0.222 AVG from the 2-hole.
TOMORROWPHI @ MIN
Andrew Painter: 6.27 ERA vs 4.91 xERA
Painter has dealt with some poor fortune, but a 4.91 xERA and elevated barrel rate still describe an imperfect profile. I expect improvement against Minnesota, not sudden dominance.
FIRST INNINGNYY @ TOR
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of NYY @ TOR
Both starters are equipped to control the opening frame, with Fisher spotless early and Schlittler limiting contact well. The NRFI is my cleaner first-inning angle.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
REGRESSIONCHW @ DET
Anthony Kay: 3.96 ERA vs 5.08 xERA
Kay’s high WHIP, ordinary strikeout production and damaging contact support his 5.08 xERA more than his 3.96 ERA. I’m fading his current run prevention against Detroit.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
TOMORROWPHI @ MIN
Andrew Painter: 6.27 ERA vs 4.91 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIN. A 6.27 ERA against a 4.91 expected ERA (1.36 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .288 vs .264 expected.
REGRESSIONSTL @ CHC
Matthew Boyd: 3.5 ERA vs 4.69 xERA
Boyd has enough strikeout ability and traffic control to avoid a total collapse, but the barrels and 4.69 xERA warn that his 3.50 ERA is flattering. I expect St. Louis to produce some regression tonight.
P 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
RETURN WATCHPIT — return listed 8/17
Oneil Cruz
Cruz is on Pittsburgh’s 60-day IL with a hand injury and is listed for August 17. A .822 OPS makes him an easy season-long hold this close to that date. STASH.
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 8/17
Maikel Garcia
Garcia is on Kansas City’s 10-day IL with a hand injury and is listed for August 17. The .693 OPS makes this a needs-based hold rather than a must-stash. HOLD if you need a third baseman; otherwise watch.
STARTER FORMBAL @ TB
Kyle Bradish: 5.27 ERA over his last 3 starts
Bradish isn’t pitching like his season number right now. I’m pricing the instability, and Tampa Bay should get repeated chances to pressure him tonight.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
CUT LISTOAK tonight
Tommy White
Still hitting 5th for OAK — 0.544 OPS, 0.253 AVG from the 5-hole.
CUT LISTMIA tonight
Jakob Marsee
Still hitting 1st for MIA — 0.626 OPS, 0.204 AVG from the 1-hole.
TOMORROWBOS @ PIT
Patrick Sandoval: 3.3 ERA vs 4.59 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PIT. A 3.3 ERA against a 4.59 expected ERA (1.29 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .319 vs .277 expected.
TOMORROWBOS @ PIT
Patrick Sandoval: 3.3 ERA vs 4.59 xERA
Sandoval’s low hard-hit and barrel rates give his run prevention genuine support, while opponents have already hit well above expectation. I trust the contact management against Pittsburgh despite the cautious 4.59 xERA signal.
TOMORROWMIA @ CIN
Nick Lodolo: 4.86 ERA vs 6.18 xERA
Lodolo’s 4.86 ERA is actually kinder than his 6.18 xERA, with hard contact and barrels supporting the warning. Miami is a live regression side against him tonight.
TOMORROWBAL @ TB
Freddy Peralta: 5.33 ERA vs 4.03 xERA
Peralta’s contact quality does not justify all the damage behind his 5.33 ERA, and opponents have hit well above expectation. I’m buying a rebound toward his 4.03 xERA against Baltimore.
TOMORROWMIA @ CIN
Nick Lodolo: 4.86 ERA vs 6.18 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIA. A 4.86 ERA against a 6.18 expected ERA (1.32 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .278 vs .290 expected.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHW @ DET
Troy Melton
Troy Melton is my favorite stream of this group. The 1.46 ERA is ahead of his 3.06 xERA, but a 0.90 WHIP gives him a strong foundation for today’s home matchup with Chicago. Add him if you need a one-start streamer against the White Sox.
STARTER FORMTEX @ OAK
J.T. Ginn: 1.96 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (18.3 IP) he has a 1.96 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP (1.21 season) and 14 strikeouts — his season mark is 3.41, and that is where most lines still price him.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
TOMORROWBAL @ TB
Freddy Peralta: 5.33 ERA vs 4.03 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BAL. A 5.33 ERA against a 4.03 expected ERA (1.3 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .272 vs .242 expected.
FANTASY PICKUPSSTL @ CHC
Alex Bregman
Pickup vs Michael McGreevy (5.68 xERA) — .751 OPS, bats 4th.
TOMORROWARI @ ATL
Michael Soroka: 2.92 ERA vs 4.17 xERA
Soroka has earned part of his success by limiting hard contact, but the barrel rate and favorable opponent-average gap still point toward regression. Atlanta is capable of turning those previously harmless balls into damage.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHW @ DET
Dillon Dingler
Pickup vs Anthony Kay (5.08 xERA) — .828 OPS, bats 3rd.
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.631 OPS, 0.216 AVG from the 4-hole.
TOMORROWARI @ ATL
Michael Soroka: 2.92 ERA vs 4.17 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ATL. A 2.92 ERA against a 4.17 expected ERA (1.25 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .231 vs .252 expected.
RETURN WATCHTOR — return listed 8/18
Joe Mantiply
Mantiply is on Toronto’s 60-day IL with a knee injury and is listed for August 18. That 2.04 ERA deserves attention, though the return date is not a promise. STASH in deeper leagues or with an open IL spot.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHW @ DET
Kevin McGonigle
Pickup vs Anthony Kay (5.08 xERA) — .814 OPS, bats 4th.
TOMORROWKC @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 6.71 ERA vs 5.54 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs KC. A 6.71 ERA against a 5.54 expected ERA (1.17 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .273 vs .262 expected.
TOMORROWKC @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 6.71 ERA vs 5.54 xERA
Johnson has encountered a little bad fortune, but his 5.54 xERA and 11.4% barrel rate still leave major underlying risk. I’m not betting on a meaningful rebound against Kansas City.
BATTER VS ARMTEX @ OAK
Wyatt Langford vs J.T. Ginn: .500
Langford has handled Ginn and shown he won’t chase when the pitch isn’t there. Even during a cold stretch, this is the kind of familiar matchup that can get his bat moving tonight.
P 3-for-4, 6 TB
PARK WEATHERARI @ ATL
92° at Truist Park — the ball will carry tonight
At 92 degrees, I expect the ball to carry at Truist Park and give both offenses room for damage in the air. The total of nine is demanding, but the conditions provide a clear route to the over.
P final total 13 vs 9 (over lean)
BALLPARKBAL @ TB
Ian Seymour's ERA drops to 3.50 at Tropicana Field
Seymour’s 3.50 ERA and extremely low opponent average at Tropicana Field show that the home setting suits him. I expect him to keep Baltimore from building consistent offense.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
RUNNING GAMESD @ CLE
Cleveland Guardians like to run — Freddy Fermin (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
I don’t want Cleveland running just for the sake of running against Fermin’s 35% caught-stealing rate. The Guardians should pick their spots and use their speed after contact instead of risking cheap outs.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 3 bases
RUNNING GAMEKC @ LAA
Kansas City Royals like to run — Tyler Heineman (37% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Kansas City’s running game meets real resistance from Heineman and his 37% caught-stealing rate. The Royals may stay aggressive, but they risk giving the Angels a cheap out.
P Kansas City Royals stole 1 base
CUT LISTHOU tonight
Daulton Varsho
Still hitting 4th for HOU — 0.663 OPS, 0.233 AVG from the 4-hole.
CUT LISTWSH tonight
Dylan Crews
Still hitting 1st for WSH — 0.660 OPS, 0.217 AVG from the 1-hole.
CLOSER WATCHKC @ LAA
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Kansas City is an underdog on the road, so this is not the strongest save spot tonight. Lucas Erceg has worked once in the last three games but is fully rested, while Alex Lange sits just two saves behind. Hold Erceg, and stash Lange if you have room; the committee makes both relevant for this week's save chase.
CLOSER WATCHBAL @ TB
Ryan Helsley / Andrew Kittredge
Baltimore is an underdog on the road, so tonight is a weaker save setup despite Ryan Helsley being fully rested. Andrew Kittredge is only two saves behind, keeping this a true committee. Keep Helsley active, but add Kittredge if saves are the priority; both remain viable this week.
BALLPARKCHW @ DET
Troy Melton owns a 2.10 ERA at Comerica Park — 0.99 everywhere else
Melton has been excellent everywhere, so his 2.10 ERA at Comerica Park is not a park-driven illusion. His form remains the stronger story, and I trust it against the White Sox.
P 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
RUNNING GAMEBAL @ TB
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Carlos Narvaez has caught just 16%
I’m giving Tampa Bay the green light against Narvaez’s 16% caught-stealing rate. The Rays can turn ordinary baserunners into scoring threats and manufacture runs without needing multiple hits.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 0 bases
RUNNING GAMEBOS @ PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — Adley Rutschman (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Pittsburgh needs to be selective against Rutschman’s 35% caught-stealing rate. Forcing the running game could erase valuable traffic and kill innings before they develop.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 0 bases
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/20
Robert Garcia
Garcia is on Texas’ 60-day IL with a shoulder injury and is listed for August 20. His 3.38 ERA is respectable, but I’m not forcing a season-long stash. WATCH.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHW @ DET
Spencer Torkelson
Pickup vs Anthony Kay (5.08 xERA) — .747 OPS, bats 6th.
CUT LISTNYM tonight
Marcus Semien
Still hitting 6th for NYM — 0.626 OPS, 0.211 AVG from the 6-hole.
CUT LISTSF tonight
Drew Cavanaugh
Still hitting 6th for SF — 0.627 OPS, 0.250 AVG from the 6-hole.
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 8/21
Nick Mears
Mears is on Kansas City’s 60-day IL with a shoulder injury and is listed for August 21. The 5.12 ERA doesn’t justify tying up a season-long roster spot. PASS.
RUNNING GAMEPHI @ MIN
Green light: Philadelphia Phillies run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 15%
I expect Philadelphia to attack Jeffers’ arm after reaching base. His 15% caught-stealing rate gives the Phillies a direct way to manufacture scoring opportunities against Minnesota.
P Philadelphia Phillies stole 0 bases
CUT LISTSTL tonight
Masyn Winn
Still hitting 6th for STL — 0.638 OPS, 0.241 AVG from the 6-hole.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/21
Jordan Lawlar
Lawlar is on Arizona’s 10-day IL with a hamstring injury and is listed for August 21. A .856 OPS with that date six days away makes him one of my preferred holds here. STASH.
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Andres Gimenez
Still hitting 6th for TOR — 0.645 OPS, 0.238 AVG from the 6-hole.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHW @ DET
Hao-Yu Lee
Pickup vs Anthony Kay (5.08 xERA) — .717 OPS, bats 2nd.
FANTASY PICKUPSBOS @ PIT
Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray brings the best established run prevention here: a 2.79 ERA backed by a 3.62 xERA, plus a solid 1.15 WHIP. The 7.9 K/9 isn’t overwhelming, but the matchup with Pittsburgh puts him firmly in play. Add him in deeper leagues if you need a starter today.
FANTASY PICKUPSNYY @ TOR
Braydon Fisher
Braydon Fisher is the strikeout play, leading this trio with an 8.4 K/9. His 3.54 ERA sits close to his 3.81 xERA, though the 1.23 WHIP and matchup with the Yankees make him the riskiest option. Add him only in deeper leagues if you’re chasing strikeouts and can accept the matchup risk.
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 8/21
Gavin Stone
Stone is on the Dodgers’ 60-day IL with a shoulder injury and is listed for August 21. With no season line available, there isn’t enough here for me to prioritize him. WATCH; stash only in deep leagues with spare IL room.
FIRST INNINGBOS @ PIT
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
I see a quiet first inning here. Pittsburgh’s recent pattern and Gray’s matchup make the bottom half feel safe, so the main question is whether Jones can keep Boston off the board.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGPHI @ MIN
MIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Minnesota’s slow starts are unlikely to change against Luzardo. Philadelphia has the clearer early scoring chance against Prielipp and could put the Twins in chase mode immediately.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGARI @ ATL
ATL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Atlanta has been quiet early, but Rodriguez’s first-inning issues make this a bad spot to trust that trend blindly. The Braves have a legitimate chance to strike first, while Holmes should give them cover if they do not.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
BATTER VS ARMCOL @ SF
Hunter Goodman vs Logan Webb: .400
Hunter Goodman has gone 4-for-10 (.400) across 10 career at-bats off Logan Webb. They meet again tonight. He enters steady (.756 OPS, L15).
FIRST INNINGMIA @ CIN
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Miami’s first-inning silence puts the pressure on Cincinnati to do the scoring. Gusto leaves that door open, but if the Reds miss their first chance, this should settle into a slower game quickly.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

L
Tigers ML -135
MLB · 4-3
L
Cubs -1.5 +102
MLB · 8-4
W
Giants -1.5 +119
MLB · 1-7
W
Mets ML -130
MLB · 4-5
L
Rays ML -141
MLB · 4-3
W
Marlins ML -102
MLB · 8-4
L
Padres ML +105
MLB · 1-6
W
Brewers ML -122
MLB · 4-1
W
Phillies ML -133
MLB · 9-1
W
Red Sox ML -116
MLB · 4-0
L
Braves ML -133
MLB · 10-3
L
Royals ML +142
MLB · 0-1
L
Athletics ML +143
MLB · 5-3
L
Astros ML -119
MLB · 10-5

Props

W
Brad Lord · under
Nationals @ Mets · Actual 2
W
Brady Singer · over
Marlins @ Reds · Actual 8
W
Bryce Eldridge · over
Rockies @ Giants · Actual 2
W
Bryce Harper · over
Phillies @ Twins · Actual 1
W
Cal Raleigh · under
Mariners @ Astros · Actual 0
W
Carson Benge · over
Nationals @ Mets · Actual 3
W
Eduardo Rodriguez · under
Diamondbacks @ Braves · Actual 2
L
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Padres @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Geraldo Perdomo · over
Diamondbacks @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Hayden Wesneski · over
Mariners @ Astros · Actual 12
W
Ian Seymour · over
Orioles @ Rays · Actual 9
L
Jac Caglianone · over
Royals @ Angels · Actual 1
L
Jac Caglianone · over
Royals @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Jacob Misiorowski · over
Brewers @ Dodgers · Actual 6
W
Jake Bauers · over
Brewers @ Dodgers · Actual 2
L
Jared Jones · under
Red Sox @ Pirates · Actual 15
W
Jesus Luzardo · over
Phillies @ Twins · Actual 9
W
J.T. Ginn · over
Rangers @ Athletics · Actual 18
W
Kyle Bradish · under
Orioles @ Rays · Actual 3
L
Lawrence Butler · over
Rangers @ Athletics · Actual 0
L
Luis Campusano · over
Padres @ Guardians · Actual 0
W
Michael Lorenzen · under
Rockies @ Giants · Actual 11
L
Randy Dobnak · under
Royals @ Angels · Actual 17
W
Ryan Gusto · under
Marlins @ Reds · Actual 14
W
Sonny Gray · over
Red Sox @ Pirates · Actual 21
L
Spencer Torkelson · over
White Sox @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Troy Melton · under
White Sox @ Tigers · Actual 9
L
Wyatt Langford · under
Rangers @ Athletics · Actual 3