Sports Picks Archive — Sunday, August 16, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Orioles· -140

Sunday matinee under the Trop roof, with Baltimore trying to keep its surprise run through Tampa Bay alive. The first two games were decided by one run, and this feels like another game that stays tense into the late innings. The matchup turns on Tampa Bay’s right-handed bats against Trevor Rogers. Rogers has rebuilt his season, but righties have produced a .768 OPS against him, and the Rays can stack Díaz, Caminero, Vilade, DeLuca and Mateo around their contact-and-speed game. On the other side, Peralta is volatile, but Baltimore’s strikeout-heavy lineup gives him a legitimate path to six useful innings. The bullpen gap decides it for me. Baltimore’s primary leverage arms have worked both games, while Tampa Bay still has the deeper, better relief group to protect a close lead. I’m paying the -140 for the home team to stop the skid, but Peralta’s inconsistency and the series’ one-run pattern keep me away from Rays -1.5.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Diamondbacks· -124

Hot Sunday afternoon at Truist Park, wind drifting toward left, with Arizona chasing the sweep and Atlanta trying to stop a rough weekend before leaving town. I’m backing the Braves because this lineup is built to make Soroka’s return uncomfortable. Atlanta can stack left-handed bats against a pitcher who has been much tougher on righties, and his workload remains a concern in only his second start back. That creates an earlier path into Arizona’s middle relief, even if the back end of that bullpen is excellent. Elder is volatile, but Arizona has produced a modest .688 OPS against right-handed pitching, and his changeup gives him a legitimate weapon against Carroll, Marte and the other left-side threats. I want no part of Atlanta’s expensive run line against Arizona’s bullpen, but -124 is a playable price for the Braves to salvage the finale at home.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Pirates· -108

Gray skies over the Allegheny, wind drifting toward center, and a getaway-day rubber match at PNC Park. The whole handicap changed when Paul Skenes was scratched. At nearly even money, I’ll back Boston’s real starter against Pittsburgh’s improvised pitching chain. Lake Bachar has not started in 57 days, never worked beyond three innings in his four starts, and now hands the game to the weaker, busier bullpen. That is a difficult way to navigate Abreu’s hot bat and a Red Sox lineup capable of punishing the first reliever who misses. Sandoval will allow traffic, but his changeup is the best swing-and-miss pitch either starter brings, and Pittsburgh owns just a .691 OPS against lefties. Boston also has the fresher, stronger late-inning group. Yoshida’s absence and the getaway spot keep me off the run line, but -108 is too cheap after the pitching change.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Blue Jays· +110

Sunday afternoon under the roof at Rogers Centre, with Toronto trying to finish a sweep and New York trying to stop a three-game skid. This is the kind of getaway game where the obvious storyline can become expensive. Cease is the better starter, but the price is asking bettors to chase the ace, the hot club and the sweep. Weathers has allowed one earned run across his past three starts, while Toronto owns a weak .626 OPS against left-handed pitching and is now without Vladimir Guerrero Jr. His ugly history against the Jays is real, but his current five-pitch mix is better than the version they punished earlier this season. The bullpen situation breaks New York’s way. Toronto has used Rogers, Fluharty and Varland on consecutive days, while Cruz and Bednar are rested. I only need the Yankees’ hard contact to produce a few timely hits before the game reaches their fresher late-inning arms. At plus money, I’ll bet on the stronger club avoiding the sweep.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Tigers· +103

Sunday afternoon at Comerica, the wind cutting right to left and Detroit trying to save face in a division series that has already slipped away. The Tigers have urgency; the White Sox have the better arm. Sean Burke is the separator. His fastball and curve have been carrying legitimate ace form, he has traveled well, and Detroit’s lineup is missing too much impact while sitting several of the hitters who produced this weekend. Drew Anderson has pitched well, but his short leash means Chicago should get multiple looks at a bullpen that has already worked 12⅔ innings in the series. The sweep angle and Chicago’s taxed late-inning arms keep this from being a heavy play. Still, I’m being offered plus money on the hotter lineup with the starter I trust to control more of the game. At +103, I’ll put the $100 on the White Sox to finish the sweep.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Reds· -118

Storm clouds hang over Great American Ball Park, with warm air and a breeze carrying toward left field. It’s a volatile setting for a rubber match, but the best arm on the field belongs to Miami. Eury Pérez is the separator. His five-pitch arsenal gives Cincinnati’s struggling lineup too many different problems, and he has allowed only five earned runs across his past three starts. Nick Lodolo is making just his second start after a month away, permitted three homers in his return, and could again face an abbreviated workload. Miami’s lineup is diminished, so I’m not paying extra for the run line. I want the straight win at -118, especially with the Marlins’ contact and speed positioned to pressure Lodolo before reaching a Cincinnati bullpen carrying a 7.04 ERA over its past seven games. The rain and Miami’s poor road record keep this from being a heavier play, but Pérez at this price is the wager.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Nationals· +124

Sunday afternoon at Citi Field, the wind is carrying toward left and the Mets have a sweep sitting on the table. The building has some life again after Saturday’s walk-off. I’m laying the run and taking plus money because Jake Irvin is still searching for his form after the shoulder layoff. His fastballs have been punishable, his last three starts produced 12 earned runs in 13⅔ innings, and Lindor, Bichette, Benge, and Jared Young are all seeing the ball well. If Irvin leaves early, Washington’s vulnerable bullpen must cover substantial ground after working 11 innings over the last three games. Christian Scott’s recent results introduce risk, but his strikeout arsenal matches up well against a Washington lineup prone to chasing—and missing James Wood. New York also has the fresher late-inning options. I’m passing on the expensive moneyline and betting that if the Mets finish the sweep, they create enough separation to cash the -1.5.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Guardians· -105

Overcast skies, a breeze carrying toward right field, and a rubber match at Progressive Field with both clubs fighting for October ground. This feels like a tight Sunday game that will be decided after the starters leave. I’m backing the deeper, hotter team at essentially even money. Casey Mize’s four-seamer has been his best weapon, and his splitter gives him a legitimate answer for Cleveland’s left-handed core. The Guardians can manufacture traffic, but the bottom half of this lineup has been light, and Mize should avoid the prolonged inning that beats him. Tanner Bibee is vulnerable to the damaging swing, particularly against left-handed bats, and Jackson Merrill is seeing the ball too well for that weakness to ignore. San Diego also has the superior late-inning setup: if this is tied or the Padres lead after six, Morejon, Estrada and Miller give me the side I want. I’ll lay the nickel with San Diego rather than pay a steep price for Cleveland’s extra run.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Phillies· +100

Sunday afternoon at Target Field, the wind is carrying toward right and Minnesota is trying to salvage the finale after getting handled twice. This is the uncomfortable spot where a sweep can look inevitable right before the series turns. I’m buying Dean Kremer’s adjustment at even money. His splitter and cutter give him weapons against Philadelphia’s left-heavy order, and he has allowed only two runs across his first 12 innings with Minnesota. Trea Turner’s scratch removes another dangerous bat and makes the Phillies easier to sequence. Andrew Painter has improved, but his fastball remains hittable and he may not work deep. Minnesota has generated traffic all series without cashing it in, and I expect Josh Bell, Royce Lewis, and Luke Keaschall to finally produce the decisive swing. I’ll take the motivated home club to avoid the sweep at +100.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cubs· -131

Sunday afternoon at Wrigley, the wind drifting toward right and a division series sitting level. One club is trying to reclaim control; the other just injected a little chaos into its season. Hunter Dobbins is the steadier starter today. He has allowed three earned runs across his last three outings, while Edward Cabrera returns after 53 days with only 64 pitches in his final rehab start. Chicago may need significant bullpen length, and its lineup loses some depth with Michael Busch and several regulars resting. I’m not paying for Báez to repeat the impossible. I’m betting St. Louis can keep this close behind Dobbins, Burleson and a rested bullpen that has been pitching well. The Cubs can absolutely win, but asking them to win by multiple runs with Cabrera on a cautious workload is ambitious enough that I’ll lay the -131 for the extra run.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· -124

Cool afternoon at Oracle, the wind drifting toward center, and two young starters taking the ball with the series sitting dead even. This feels more like a grinder than another 7-1 runaway. Blade Tidwell is the separator. His sweeper gives Colorado’s young lineup a pitch it can chase, and he has already handled stronger offenses than this one. Hunter Goodman’s absence removes the Rockies’ most dangerous power bat, while the Giants can attack Gabriel Hughes with Gilbert, Devers, Eldridge and Lee stacked from the left side. I considered laying the run and a half at +158, but Oracle Park and San Francisco’s inconsistent offense make that unnecessarily ambitious. The Giants have the better starter, the deeper usable bullpen and the final at-bat; at -124, I’ll pay the modest home tax and keep the bet simple.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Athletics· -129

Sunday afternoon in Sacramento, hot sun over a small ballpark, with the series and Texas’ place in the playoff race both sitting on the table. This has the feel of a game that stays close until one bullpen has to blink. Cody Bradford is the arm I trust more to control the shape of it. Oakland has stacked right-handed hitters against him, but his changeup plays especially well to that side, and the Athletics are sitting several of their better bats. Jacob Lopez has genuinely turned a corner, but Texas’ right-handed lineup is the tougher matchup for him, even without Corey Seager. I considered the Texas run line, but Lopez’s recent form makes laying 1.5 too ambitious. The deciding edge is after the starters leave: Texas owns the deeper bullpen and the cleaner defense, while Oakland’s relief group has spent too much of the past week leaking runs. I’ll pay the manageable price and back the Rangers simply to win.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Royals· +106

Sunday afternoon in Anaheim, the breeze is carrying toward center and two worn-down clubs are playing for the series. This is the kind of tight getaway game where I want the home underdog at plus money. Noah Cameron is the steadier starter, but Kansas City is 1-9 in his road starts and 21-44 away overall. Ryan Johnson’s ugly season ERA creates the price, yet he has pitched considerably better at Angel Stadium and has allowed only two earned runs across his last two outings. If he limits the sinker and works through his cutter and splitter, he can keep this close. The deciding factor is what happens after the starters leave. Johnson rarely supplies length, but the Angels have the stronger current bullpen and several rested late-inning options behind him. Kansas City’s relief corps has been unreliable, while the Angels have won four of five and can finish with Joyce if they get ahead. I’ll take Los Angeles to win outright rather than pay heavy juice for the run-and-a-half cushion.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Dodgers· -138

Sunday sun over Dodger Stadium, two first-place clubs finishing a four-game fight, and two starters capable of making every run feel expensive. This has the shape of another game decided in the late innings. I’m paying the -138 because Logan Henderson has earned the cushion: three runs or fewer allowed in every start, a 2.50 ERA across his last three, and five Milwaukee wins in his last six outings. The Dodgers have scored only eight runs in this series, while Henderson already shut them out for five innings earlier this season. Skubal can dominate this depleted Milwaukee lineup, but that still doesn’t make Dodgers -1.5 attractive. Los Angeles has a strained late-game setup, Milwaukee owns the steadier bullpen, and the Brewers have already shown twice this series that they can survive a one-run script. Give me Milwaukee plus the run and a half.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mariners· -123

Sunday night in Houston, the roof is shut, the series is level, and the AL West lead is sitting under the lights. This has the feel of a tight game decided after the starters leave. Hunter Brown is the matchup I trust more. His power fastball can expose Seattle’s swing-and-miss, while his heavy sinker should limit the sustained rallies the Mariners produced Saturday. Bryan Woo has rediscovered his command, but his 6.22 road ERA is too severe to dismiss against Yordan Alvarez and a Houston lineup built to punish right-handed pitching. The separator is the bullpen. Seattle’s relief corps has a 6.94 ERA over its past seven games, with Muñoz, Bazardo and Ferrer all working twice in the last three. Houston has the deeper late-game path and the best closer available in Josh Hader. I’m paying the modest home price and taking the Astros moneyline at -123.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

FREDDY PERALTAPITCHER OUTS UNDER 16.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· -120

Peralta has completed six innings only once in his last six starts and has cleared 16.5 outs just twice in his last eight. Deep counts have repeatedly driven up his pitch total, and Baltimore’s combination of patience and power should make another early hook possible. Tampa Bay has enough available bullpen depth to avoid forcing him through the sixth.

GARY'S PICK

YANDY DIAZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +104

Díaz is 13-for-28 over his last seven games and has cleared this number in 10 of his last 15. The contact has substance behind it, with a 91.0 mph average exit velocity and 14 recent hard-hit balls. He also gets the favorable side of Rogers’ pronounced split: right-handed hitters own a .275 average and .768 OPS against the lefty. Batting leadoff gives Díaz the plate-appearance volume I want at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL SOROKAPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +102

Soroka needed 77 pitches to record 13 outs in his first start back, and I’m not counting on Arizona extending him much further in this heat. Atlanta can load the lineup with left-handed bats, the side against which Soroka has been considerably more vulnerable, and that should create enough traffic to prevent six completed innings. I like getting plus money on five innings or fewer.

GARY'S PICK

JIM JARVISH+R+RBI UNDER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +140

Jarvis enters hitless in his last 10 at-bats and just 2-for-28 over the past 15 days. Batting ninth also limits his plate appearances and leaves him dependent on the bottom of Atlanta’s order to create run-producing chances. Arizona’s bullpen has allowed only three earned runs over its last seven games, so the matchup does not become substantially easier after Soroka exits. Plus money is generous for Jarvis to finish without a hit, run or RBI.

GARY'S PICK

PATRICK SANDOVALPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -148

Sandoval has completed the sixth inning once in six starts, and Boston has little reason to extend him on four days’ rest. His 1.70 WHIP and nine walks over his last three outings create the pitch-count pressure I want for this under. The rising rain risk adds another path to an early exit, while yesterday’s seven innings from Sonny Gray left Boston’s bullpen prepared to cover the back half. I’m betting Sandoval is gone before recording his 16th out.

GARY'S PICK

WILYER ABREUTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +115

Abreu has cleared this number in nine of his last 15 games while producing six homers, and he delivered three extra-base hits Saturday. The quality supports the heater: he has 13 recent hard-hit balls and three barrels. Lake Bachar has allowed a 9.8% barrel rate and will give way early to a Pittsburgh bullpen carrying the weaker season numbers and two key arms who worked both Friday and Saturday. With Abreu batting third and getting plus money, I’ll back him for another extra-base hit or a multi-hit game.

GARY'S PICK

DYLAN CEASEK'S OVER 8.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -103

Cease has the ideal swing-and-miss matchup against a Yankees lineup averaging more than nine strikeouts per game. His slider owns a 42% whiff rate, his changeup is even nastier at 53.7%, and New York has several hitters running whiff rates of 25% or higher. He has reached double-digit strikeouts in three of his past five starts, and I’m willing to back nine at nearly even money.

GARY'S PICK

ALEJANDRO KIRKH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· +101

Kirk is locked into the heart of the order and has cleared this number in nine of his past 15 games. He is 8-for-19 over the past week and 3-for-6 with three RBIs in this series, so he can cash this through multiple paths. With Bateman and McAdoo setting the table ahead of him, plus money is enough for me to ride Toronto’s hottest run producer.

GARY'S PICK

DREW ANDERSONPITCHER OUTS UNDER 13.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +100

Anderson has recorded only 11 and 12 outs in his two starts since returning to the rotation, with Detroit keeping him at 70 pitches or fewer. Chicago has consistently created traffic in this series and has enough patient, dangerous bats to make those pitches expensive. At even money, I’ll bet Anderson is gone before completing the fifth.

GARY'S PICK

SEAN BURKEK'S OVER 5.5

MLBChicago White Sox· -122

Burke has cleared this number in six of his last eight starts, including 22 strikeouts across his last three. His fastball and curve both miss bats, and this Detroit lineup gives him several targets: Dillon Dingler is ice cold, while Javier Báez, Colt Keith and Max Clark have shown exploitable swing-and-miss tendencies. Six strikeouts is reachable even if the weather limits his afternoon.

GARY'S PICK

NICK LODOLOPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· -115

Lodolo has completed six innings only twice in his past eight starts, and he was limited to four innings and 70 pitches in his first outing after a month-long absence. Miami sends eight right-handed or switch hitters at him, a concern given the .834 OPS he has allowed to righties. With possible rain adding another obstacle, I’m betting he exits before recording his 16th out.

GARY'S PICK

EURY PEREZPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -130

Pérez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his past 11 starts, including just five across his last 18 innings. His fastball velocity and three distinct swing-and-miss secondaries are a difficult combination for a Cincinnati lineup averaging 3.4 runs over its past 10 games. Great American Ball Park and the breeze create some danger, but the Reds have a .690 OPS against right-handed pitching and several cold bats near the top of the order. I trust Pérez to hold them below three earned runs.

GARY'S PICK

BRAYAN ROCCHIOH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· -168

Rocchio has cleared this number only once in his last 15 games, and batting ninth limits both his plate appearances and his chances to score. He’ll also hit from the left side against Casey Mize, who has held left-handed hitters to a .207 average and .548 OPS. One single still cashes the under, which makes the price playable.

GARY'S PICK

JACKSON MERRILLTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +120

Merrill has topped 1.5 total bases in 10 of his last 15 games, and the quality of contact supports the run: a 98.3 mph recent average exit velocity with four barrels on 20 balls in play. Tanner Bibee has allowed 17 homers to left-handed hitters, and the wind blowing toward right field gives Merrill another favorable ingredient at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

CHRISTIAN SCOTTK'S OVER 5.5

MLBNew York Mets· -127

I’m backing Scott’s swing-and-miss arsenal against a Washington lineup with several vulnerable bats. Abrams, Crews, House, and Chaparro have recent whiff rates of at least 28%, while Scott has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts. He doesn’t need to pitch deep to clear this number.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE IRVINPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -160

I’m betting Irvin is gone before completing six innings. He has exceeded 15 outs only once in his last eight starts and has lasted 5, 5⅓, and 3⅓ innings since returning from the shoulder layoff. A patient, productive top half of the Mets order can elevate his pitch count and force Washington to make the early move.

GARY'S PICK

ROYCE LEWISTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +135

I’m backing the hottest Minnesota bat against the most vulnerable part of Andrew Painter’s profile. Lewis has cleared this number in 11 of his last 15 games, with six doubles and three homers during that span. Painter has allowed an .857 OPS to right-handed hitters, and his four-seam fastball has been hit hard all season. Lewis does not need Minnesota’s struggling offense to string together a rally here; one extra-base hit gets it done at a strong plus-money price.

GARY'S PICK

ANDREW PAINTERK'S OVER 3.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -135

Painter can give up damage and still clear this modest strikeout line. He has recorded at least four strikeouts in four of his last five starts, including six in each of his last two. Minnesota’s lineup has several swing-and-miss spots, particularly Larnach, Clemens, and Lewis, while Painter’s slider and splitter both carry strong whiff rates. I only need four before his leash becomes an issue.

GARY'S PICK

HUNTER DOBBINSK'S OVER 3.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -132

Dobbins has recorded at least four strikeouts in every one of his six starts, including 15 across his last 17.1 innings. He has also completed five innings in four straight, giving him sufficient runway against a Chicago lineup featuring five hitters with recent whiff rates of at least 26%. I’m backing that consistency at a manageable number.

GARY'S PICK

JJ WETHERHOLTWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +107

Wetherholt has drawn a walk in 11 of his last 15 games while posting a remarkably low 13% chase rate. That patience is a clean match against Edward Cabrera, who has issued 29 walks in 72.1 innings and has gone over 1.5 walks in six of his last eight starts. Cabrera may also have some command rust after 53 days away, and Wetherholt’s leadoff spot maximizes his opportunities.

GARY'S PICK

GABRIEL HUGHESPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +114

Hughes has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his six starts, including five and seven in his two August outings. San Francisco can send four straight left-handed bats at him to open the game, and his changeup has been a liability when he needs an answer against that side. Oracle keeps me away from an aggressive game over, but Hughes giving up three before he exits is a much smaller ask, especially at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

BLADE TIDWELLK'S OVER 4.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· -112

Tidwell's workload is no longer the concern it was earlier in the season: he threw 100 pitches in his first August start and 96 while striking out six Astros last time out. His sweeper owns a 43.6 percent whiff rate, giving him a legitimate finishing pitch against a Colorado club averaging 8.62 strikeouts per game. With Hunter Goodman scratched, I like Tidwell to find five strikeouts before turning it over to the bullpen.

GARY'S PICK

CODY BRADFORDK'S UNDER 4.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -143

Bradford is pitching for efficient outs, not strikeouts. He has six punchouts across 11.1 innings since returning, and his whiff rate fell to 11% while he worked seven innings in his last start. His changeup is built to produce manageable contact against Oakland’s right-handed lineup. Even if he reaches six innings, I make four strikeouts the more likely landing point.

GARY'S PICK

TOMMY WHITEH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -120

White has cleared this number only three times in his last 15 games, with one RBI and no home runs over that stretch. The underlying contact is just as quiet: an 83.9 mph average exit velocity with no barrels recently. Bradford has held right-handed hitters to a .568 OPS, and Oakland’s depleted lineup gives White less protection and fewer quality RBI opportunities. One contribution does not beat us here.

GARY'S PICK

JAC CAGLIANONETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +109

Caglianone is the Kansas City bat I want against Ryan Johnson. He is 22-for-51 with five homers over his last 15 games, and his recent contact includes a 97.7 mph average exit velocity, 14 hard-hit balls and five barrels. Johnson has allowed an .852 OPS to left-handed hitters, while his heavily used sinker has been hit especially hard. Caglianone needs only a double or two singles, and I like getting plus money on the hottest hitter in this lineup.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN JOHNSONPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +105

Johnson has failed to record 15 outs in four consecutive starts, completing 4 1/3 innings or fewer in each. His command remains the obstacle: he has issued 10 walks across his last three outings, which keeps his pitch count moving even when he limits the damage. Kansas City can send five left-handed hitters at a pitcher who has struggled badly with that side, and the Angels have enough rested relief depth to make an early move. At plus money, I’m betting Johnson is gone before completing the fifth.

GARY'S PICK

LOGAN HENDERSONPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -140

Henderson has allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of his 11 starts, including five scoreless innings against Los Angeles in May. The Dodgers have managed only eight runs through three games in this series, and several of their key bats remain cold. Henderson’s fastball-changeup combination has limited both sides of the plate, giving me enough confidence to lay the price on another controlled outing.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE BAUERSHITS OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -120

Bauers has a hit in 12 of his last 15 games and is producing firm contact, with nine hard-hit balls and three barrels among his 20 recent balls in play. The left-on-left matchup looks intimidating, but Skubal has actually allowed left-handed hitters a .260 average, noticeably higher than his mark against righties. Batting cleanup should also guarantee Bauers multiple chances against both Skubal and a vulnerable Dodgers bullpen.

GARY'S PICK

YAINER DIAZHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +161

Diaz is 0-for-7 over the past week and 5-for-28 over the past 15 days, and he is buried in the eighth spot against a starter who handles right-handed hitters. Woo has held righties to a .230 average and .583 OPS while issuing only 28 walks in 132 1/3 innings. Diaz may receive only three strong opportunities, and getting plus money this large on a hitless night is the best value on the card.

GARY'S PICK

BRYAN WOOPITCHER OUTS UNDER 17.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· +130

Woo has recorded 18 outs in only four of his 13 road starts, with each of his past four road outings ending after exactly five innings. Houston owns a .742 OPS against right-handed pitching and has enough disciplined, dangerous bats to create traffic and drive up his pitch count. Seattle may want length from Woo, but his 6.22 road ERA makes the plus-money under worth that risk.

Research

171

BULLPENSEA @ HOU
Houston Astros pen: 18.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houston’s bullpen is running on fumes after 18.3 innings in three games, with several key arms likely unavailable or limited. Seattle’s path is to force an early hook and make the Astros reach into the soft part of the pen.
PLATOON EDGECOL @ SF
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Gabriel Hughes (RHP), batting 1st
Drew Gilbert leading off against a righty in Gabriel Hughes sets him up in his ideal split right out of the gate. Expect him to set the tone early for the Giants against a right-hander he is built to exploit.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGESEA @ HOU
Brendan Donovan (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Brendan Donovan leading off against Hunter Brown gives Seattle an immediate platoon advantage. His splits jump dramatically against righties, making him a sharp tone-setter at the top of the order tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
BULLPENCHW @ DET
Chicago White Sox pen: 18.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago has covered 18.3 relief innings in three games and is running short on trustworthy options. Detroit can take advantage by extending at-bats and forcing the White Sox to cover another long night.
HEAD-TO-HEADSEA @ HOU
Mariners are 8-2 vs Astros this season
Seattle’s 8-2 record against Houston is too strong to dismiss as noise, especially after its latest win came with real separation. The Mariners enter tonight with a meaningful matchup edge.
TEAM RECORDMIL @ LAD
Brewers 7-1 in Logan Henderson's last 8 starts
Milwaukee has won seven of Logan Henderson’s last eight starts, repeatedly finding a way to finish his work. I’m willing to back that pattern even with the Brewers on the road at Dodger Stadium.
TEAM RECORDPHI @ MIN
Phillies 1-7 in Andrew Painter's last 8 starts
Philadelphia is 1-7 across Andrew Painter’s last eight starts, and I cannot ignore how consistently these games have ended badly. Minnesota is the side I trust more tonight.
TEAM RECORDTEX @ OAK
Athletics 1-7 in Jacob Lopez's last 8 starts
Oakland has lost seven of Jacob Lopez’s last eight starts, including three straight. Until the Athletics prove they can turn one of his outings into a win, I’m leaning Texas.
PLATOON EDGESD @ CLE
Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Casey Mize (RHP), batting 5th
Nathaniel Lowe gets his preferred left-on-right matchup from a run-producing lineup spot. Batting fifth gives him a strong chance to turn traffic into an RBI opportunity against Casey Mize.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
TEAM RECORDCOL @ SF
Rockies 1-6 in Gabriel Hughes's last 7 starts
Colorado has lost six straight Gabriel Hughes starts and is 1-6 in his last seven overall. San Francisco has the clear team-level advantage tonight.
BULLPENSD @ CLE
San Diego Padres pen: 17 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego has thrown 17 relief innings in three games, and its biggest source of length is unavailable after a 90-pitch outing. Cleveland can crack this open by getting to the starter early and forcing tired or lesser-used arms into important spots.
PLATOON EDGESTL @ CHC
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Edward Cabrera (RHP)
Alec Burleson locked into the three-spot against Edward Cabrera gets him his absolute best split in high-leverage first-inning spots. Cabrera giving up the platoon edge plays directly into Burleson's peak contact zone.
P 3-for-5, 7 TB
HEAT CHECKBOS @ PIT
Wilyer Abreu: 1.323 OPS in Last 15 Days
Wilyer Abreu is locked in right now, elevating his OPS over 500 points past his standard baseline during this recent tear. Getting his total bases line at 0.5 against Pittsburgh pitching is a massive discount you have to take advantage of tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKKC @ LAA
Jac Caglianone: 1.246 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jac Caglianone is crushing the ball over his last 50-plus plate appearances, running up a 1.246 OPS while finding absolute barrel control. Facing permissive Angels pitching in Anaheim, taking him over 1.5 total bases is the right move while he is this dialed in.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
TEAM RECORDSD @ CLE
Guardians 2-6 in Tanner Bibee's last 8 starts
Cleveland has stumbled repeatedly during Tanner Bibee's turns, dropping six of his last eight starts. Hosting San Diego with four consecutive losses on his watch leaves the Guardians in a tough spot to flip the script.
TEAM RECORDKC @ LAA
Royals 2-6 in Noah Cameron's last 8 starts
Kansas City regularly flatlines on nights Noah Cameron starts, dropping six of his last eight appearances. The Angels are positioned well to capitalize on a Royals squad that struggles to build momentum on his turns.
TEAM RECORDMIA @ CIN
Reds 2-6 in Nick Lodolo's last 8 starts
Cincinnati loses its bite whenever Nick Lodolo pitches, dropping six of his last eight starts while struggling to maintain leads. Miami comes to town with a golden setup to cash against a host squad that underperforms on his watch.
BULLPENNYY @ TOR
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Toronto’s bullpen has logged 15 innings in three games, with several frequently used arms likely unavailable or reduced. The Yankees can expose that strain by making the starter work and reaching the middle-relief layer early.
HEAD-TO-HEADBAL @ TB
Orioles are 7-3 vs Rays this season
Baltimore’s 7-3 season record against Tampa Bay gives the Orioles a legitimate edge, even if the latest meeting was tight. I lean Baltimore, but I’m not treating this series as domination.
TEAM RECORDBOS @ PIT
Red Sox 5-1 in Patrick Sandoval's last 6 starts
Boston is 5-1 in Patrick Sandoval’s last six starts and keeps converting his outings into wins. That gives the Red Sox the stronger setup tonight in Pittsburgh.
TEAM RECORDBAL @ TB
Orioles 6-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 8 starts
Baltimore has won six of Trevor Rogers’s last eight starts, consistently giving him enough support to finish the job. I trust the Orioles to do it again tonight in Tampa Bay.
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ MIN
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Stacking Bryce Harper in the three-spot against right-handed pitching gives Philadelphia its most lethal setup. His power and run-creation numbers jump significantly when he gets the platoon edge from the jump.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECOL @ SF
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Rafael Devers hitting second against Gabriel Hughes optimizes San Francisco's top of the order with a dominant righty split. It hides his southpaw struggles and lets him drive the action in the opening frame.
P 2-for-5, 6 TB
PLATOON EDGENYY @ TOR
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Luis Garcia Jr. gets his strongest split against Dylan Cease and bats second, where he should collect plenty of opportunities. He can set the table or become the runner Toronto’s middle order drives home.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGESEA @ HOU
Yordan Alvarez (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Alvarez batting second makes Woo face Houston’s biggest left-handed threat almost immediately. The spot maximizes both his plate appearances and his early run-production chances.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFMIA @ CIN
Otto Lopez: .455 OPS in Last 15 Days
Otto Lopez’s .455 OPS over the last 15 days points to timing trouble rather than simple bad luck. I can see a modest rebound against Cincinnati, but I’m not expecting an immediate power surge.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSToronto Blue Jays — week of 8/10
Dylan Cease
Cease gets both starts at home, against Boston and New York, and his 2.74 xERA keeps him locked into my weekly plan. PLAN AROUND
COOLING OFFNYY @ TOR
Ben Rice: .455 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ben Rice’s .455 OPS over the last 15 days is a sharp drop, but his larger body of work still matters more to me. Toronto offers a bounce-back opportunity if he commits early and attacks one part of the zone.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGECHW @ DET
Munetaka Murakami (bats L) hits 2nd against Drew Anderson (RHP)
Munetaka Murakami’s left-handed power is best positioned against righties, and batting second keeps him central every time Chicago turns the order over. Drew Anderson has to deal with that threat immediately.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Esmerlyn Valdez batting second against a lefty in Patrick Sandoval gives Pittsburgh an elite split right at the top of the card. He produces his highest-upside contact against left-handed pitching, giving the offense an immediate spark.
P 2-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/10
Logan Henderson
I’m building my week around Henderson. A 2.68 xERA earns that trust for the two-start road turn at San Diego and Los Angeles. PLAN AROUND
BULLPENBAL @ TB
Baltimore Orioles pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Baltimore’s 12.7 relief innings do not tell the whole story, because four heavily used options may be unavailable tonight. The Orioles badly need length from their starter, and Tampa Bay gains a clear edge if it reaches that thin bullpen early.
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/10
Tarik Skubal
Skubal’s 3.01 xERA gives me no reason to overthink a two-start home week against Kansas City and Milwaukee. PLAN AROUND
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ MIN
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Andrew Painter (RHP)
Trevor Larnach gets his preferred left-on-right matchup at the top of Minnesota’s order. That gives him an immediate chance to pressure Andrew Painter and the best path to an extra plate appearance.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFSEA @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: .533 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jeremy Peña is genuinely cold, but 56 plate appearances do not erase his stronger season baseline. Tonight is a prove-it spot, not enough for me to declare his swing broken.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
COOLING OFFBOS @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .531 OPS in Last 15 Days
Esmerlyn Valdez’s .531 OPS over the last 15 days looks more like a temporary results slump than a broken swing. I would not price this as his new level, and Boston gives him a chance to let the damage return.
P 2-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFWSH @ NYM
CJ Abrams: .619 OPS in Last 15 Days
CJ Abrams gets the cleanest rebound matchup on the board. His season-long work against righties carries more weight than the recent .619 OPS, and Christian Scott puts him back in his best split.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKSD @ CLE
Jackson Merrill: 1.004 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jackson Merrill is on an absolute tear with a four-figure OPS over his last 53 plate appearances, raising his game by nearly 300 points. Even against a tough Cleveland staff, his swing path is producing hard contact that should net total bases tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFMIL @ LAD
Tommy Edman: .488 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Logan Henderson
Tommy Edman hasn't been converting contact lately, and facing Logan Henderson puts him right back on his less productive split side. Snapping a slump without platoon help is tough business, so expect another quiet night at the dish.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/10
Blake Snell
Snell brings the best xERA of this group at 2.34, with both starts at home against Kansas City and Milwaukee. I’m starting him without hesitation. PLAN AROUND
TWO STARTSColorado Rockies — week of 8/10
Gabriel Hughes
Hughes is on the road for both listed starts, at Arizona and San Francisco, but a 3.03 xERA keeps me committed. PLAN AROUND
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ NYM
CJ Abrams (bats L) hits 1st against Christian Scott (RHP)
CJ Abrams gets Christian Scott from his preferred side and will see him immediately from the leadoff spot. If Abrams reaches, Washington can put pressure on the Mets before the game settles.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFTEX @ OAK
Evan Carter: .321 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Jacob Lopez
Evan Carter's swing is completely out of rhythm right now, and facing a left-hander in Jacob Lopez traps him in his absolute worst matchup profile. Expect another difficult night for him at the dish in Oakland.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
BULLPENBAL @ TB
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 16 relief IP over their last 3 games
Tampa Bay has covered 16 relief innings in three games, but its workload is better distributed than Baltimore’s. If both starters leave early, I give the Rays the healthier and more flexible bullpen.
CLOSER WATCHCOL @ SF
Ryan Walker / JT Brubaker
The odds put San Francisco in a live save spot tonight, and Ryan Walker is fully rested after no outings in the last three games. But with JT Brubaker only one save behind, I read this as a real committee rather than Walker’s ninth alone. Keep Walker active, but add Brubaker where possible. Both are viable saves chases this week.
CLOSER WATCHKC @ LAA
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Kansas City is favored tonight, so the save chance is live, and Lucas Erceg is fully rested after no outings in the last three games. Alex Lange sits only two saves back, though, making this another genuine committee. Start Erceg, but Lange is worth adding or holding for saves this week.
COOLING OFFBOS @ PIT
Spencer Horwitz: .392 OPS in Last 15 Days
Spencer Horwitz’s .392 OPS over the last 15 days is severe enough to signal a real timing issue. Against Boston, I’m staying cautious on his power until he shows he can control the zone again.
COOLING OFFMIA @ CIN
Elly De La Cruz: .521 OPS in Last 15 Days
Elly De La Cruz’s slump matters, and Eury Perez attacks the weaker side of his split. I’m not treating this as a buy-low spot until Elly shows that his season-level form is returning.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFARI @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: .540 OPS in Last 15 Days
Drake Baldwin’s .540 OPS over the last 15 days undersells the quality of hitter he has established himself to be. At home against Arizona, I like his chances of producing cleaner contact and rebounding in total bases.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFKC @ LAA
Zach Neto: .456 OPS in Last 15 Days
Zach Neto’s .456 OPS over the last 15 days looks more like delayed results than a complete mechanical collapse. Kansas City presents a reasonable spot for his extra-base impact to return.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STARTER FORMCOL @ SF
Gabriel Hughes: 9.42 ERA over his last 3 starts
Gabriel Hughes has a 9.42 ERA over his last three starts and has become increasingly vulnerable once traffic builds. San Francisco should generate scoring chances simply by applying steady pressure.
P 4 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
TWO STARTSSan Francisco Giants — week of 8/10
Blade Tidwell
Tidwell’s 3.15 xERA and two home starts—Houston followed by Colorado—make him part of my plan for the full week. PLAN AROUND
HEAT CHECKPHI @ MIN
Royce Lewis: 1.004 OPS in Last 15 Days
Royce Lewis is cooking with a 1.004 OPS over his last two weeks, but setting his total bases prop at 4.5 against Philadelphia's stingy pitching is ask-too-much territory. The under on this inflated line is the smart play tonight.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGECHW @ DET
Dillon Dingler (bats R) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Dillon Dingler owns a productive reverse split against right-handed pitching, and Detroit has placed it in the heart of the order. Batting third gives him immediate RBI and rally-extending chances.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONCOL @ SF
Gabriel Hughes: 5.61 ERA vs 3.03 xERA
Gabriel Hughes’s 5.61 ERA is well above his 3.03 expected mark, with his contact profile pointing toward better results ahead. Despite the ugly recent form, I expect a cleaner start against San Francisco than the surface numbers suggest.
P 4 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
HEAT CHECKSTL @ CHC
Alec Burleson: 1.137 OPS in Last 15 Days
Alec Burleson is absolute fire at the plate with a 1.137 OPS over his last 45 plate appearances, but a 4.5 total bases line requires near perfection in Chicago. Fade the sky-high total and take the under tonight.
P 3-for-5, 7 TB
STREAKTEX @ OAK
TEX have lost 4 straight
Texas enters Oakland on a four-game slide, suffering lopsided defeats with an average loss margin of four runs. The Rangers must immediately fix their pitching bleed on the road if they want to halt this skid tonight.
P team lost 2-5
STREAKTEX @ OAK
OAK games have gone OVER 4 straight
Oakland games have blown past totals during a four-game Over streak, driven by heavy run production. Facing Texas tonight, even moderate offensive contributions on both sides give this game plenty of upside to keep the streak going.
P final total 7 vs 6.5
CUT LISTCIN tonight
Nick Lodolo
The 4.86 ERA is already hurting you, and the 6.18 xERA says it could be even worse. With Lodolo starting tonight, I’d cut him before he can do more damage. CUT
COOLING OFFTEX @ OAK
Wyatt Langford: .476 OPS in Last 15 Days
Wyatt Langford’s .476 OPS over the last 15 days looks like a cold hitter pressing, not a lost hitter. Oakland gives him a good opportunity to stop expanding the zone and get back to driving hittable pitches.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Angels — week of 8/10
Reid Detmers
Detmers has a 3.32 xERA and two home assignments, Texas on Monday and Kansas City on Saturday. I’m sticking with both. PLAN AROUND
HEAT CHECKPHI @ MIN
Luke Keaschall: 1.074 OPS in Last 15 Days
Luke Keaschall is spraying hard contact everywhere, but hanging a 4.5 total bases line on him against Philadelphia's pitching staff is completely unreasonable. That line is stretched far past realistic projections, making the under an easy call.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKCHW @ DET
Chase Meidroth: 1.104 OPS in Last 15 Days
Chase Meidroth is seeing the ball like a beach ball right now, jumping his OPS over 300 points above baseline with real power behind his stroke. Asking him to clear 1.5 total bases in Detroit is a very reasonable ask while he is barreling everything up.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMPHI @ MIN
Andrew Painter: 2.93 ERA over his last 3 starts
Andrew Painter’s 2.93 ERA over his last three starts reflects much sharper command and better control of traffic. Minnesota is facing a better version of Painter than his full-season line suggests.
P 5 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
COOLING OFFCHW @ DET
Colson Montgomery: .474 OPS in Last 15 Days
Colson Montgomery’s short-term form and handedness split both work against him tonight. With Drew Anderson attacking his weaker side, I’m staying cautious.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFSD @ CLE
Manny Machado: .493 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tanner Bibee
Manny Machado’s .493 OPS slide is difficult to wave away when his season baseline was already modest. Tanner Bibee attacks his weaker side, making this a stay-away spot for me.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSAthletics — week of 8/10
Jacob Lopez
Lopez carries a 3.42 xERA into two home starts against Tampa Bay and Texas. I’m streaming the complete two-start week. STREAM BOTH
HEAT CHECKNYY @ TOR
Trent Grisham: 1.008 OPS in Last 15 Days
Trent Grisham has found a mechanical groove, pushing his OPS over 1.000 with 16 homers on the year and elevated contact quality. At a reasonable 1.5 total bases line in Toronto, he only needs one good pitch to clear the bar.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PARK WEATHERWSH @ NYM
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Citi Field tonight
A 13 mph wind blowing out at Citi Field gives well-hit flies to left extra life. Both lineups have a path to quick damage if the pitchers miss up in the zone.
P final total 7 vs 8.5 (over lean)
BATTER VS ARMWSH @ NYM
Francisco Lindor vs Jake Irvin: .348
Francisco Lindor has hit Jake Irvin for both average and power, and he enters this matchup in good form. I expect Lindor to attack with confidence and remain one of New York’s biggest threats.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ NYM
Jared Young (bats L) hits 5th against Jake Irvin (RHP)
Jared Young’s left-handed bat gets the favorable matchup against Jake Irvin from the fifth spot. He should have chances to finish what the top and middle of Washington’s order start.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
COOLING OFFNYY @ TOR
Kazuma Okamoto: .485 OPS in Last 15 Days
Kazuma Okamoto’s .485 OPS over the last 15 days suggests his timing is off when he reaches for power. Any recovery against Toronto is more likely to begin with shorter swings and solid contact than an immediate barrage of extra-base hits.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKARI @ ATL
Geraldo Perdomo: .961 OPS in Last 15 Days
Perdomo has become a tougher out during this hot stretch, though the power still looks modest. I respect his on-base potential more than his chances of piling up extra-base damage.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STARTER FORMSD @ CLE
Casey Mize: 6.46 ERA over his last 3 starts
Casey Mize has a 6.46 ERA over his last three starts, with increased traffic turning into sustained damage. San Diego has an opening to tilt this game with one well-built rally.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
STARTER FORMNYY @ TOR
Ryan Weathers: 0.48 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ryan Weathers has allowed almost nothing across his last three starts, posting a 0.48 ERA while controlling traffic and avoiding big innings. The Yankees are catching him in a legitimate run-prevention groove.
P 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
BALLPARKKC @ LAA
Ryan Johnson's ERA drops to 5.34 at Angel Stadium
Angel Stadium improves Ryan Johnson’s outlook, but a 5.34 home ERA is still not a strength. Kansas City remains capable of doing damage if it begins stacking baserunners.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
CLOSER WATCHARI @ ATL
Raisel Iglesias
Atlanta is favored tonight, Raisel Iglesias is fully rested, and one outing across the last three games is no workload concern. With no committee indicated, this is a clean ninth-inning setup and a live save spot. Start Iglesias confidently. Robert Suarez is not the saves chase here.
HEAD-TO-HEADARI @ ATL
Diamondbacks are 4-2 vs Braves this season
Arizona’s 4-2 record against Atlanta provides a modest matchup lean, especially after the Diamondbacks created separation in the latest meeting. Six games are not enough for me to make it the center of the handicap.
HEAD-TO-HEADCHW @ DET
White Sox are 5-3 vs Tigers this season
Chicago’s 5-3 record against Detroit shows the White Sox have competed well in this matchup. I give them a small series edge, but the move to Comerica Park keeps tonight much closer than that record might imply.
HEAD-TO-HEADWSH @ NYM
Nationals are 8-6 vs Mets this season
Washington’s 8-6 edge over the Mets is narrow after a substantial number of meetings, and New York took the latest one. With tonight at Citi Field, I view the season series as background rather than a usable betting edge.
HEAD-TO-HEADPHI @ MIN
Phillies are 3-1 vs Twins this season
Philadelphia is 3-1 against Minnesota, with the latest blowout supplying the strongest evidence in that small sample. I give the Phillies a slight matchup lean, but four games cannot carry the whole handicap.
HEAD-TO-HEADKC @ LAA
Royals are 5-3 vs Angels this season
Kansas City’s 5-3 record against the Angels gives the Royals a modest matchup lean. I am leaving the latest shutout out of tonight’s run projection because the pitching setup is different.
HEAD-TO-HEADTEX @ OAK
Athletics are 7-5 vs Rangers this season
Oakland’s 7-5 record against Texas supplies a small but credible matchup edge. Playing at home strengthens the Athletics lean slightly without making it decisive.
TOMORROWLAD @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.43 ERA vs 6.93 xERA
Tomoyuki Sugano is carrying a massive 2.5-run lucky streak, with his 4.43 ERA masking a disastrous 6.93 expected ERA. Slated to face the Dodgers in Coors Field tomorrow, a brutal reality check is coming his way soon.
TOMORROWLAD @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.43 ERA vs 6.93 xERA
Sugano's 4.43 ERA is a complete miracle considering his horrific 6.93 xERA and 13.7% barrel rate allowed. Hitters are thrashing his pitches into hard contact constantly without the scoreboard reflecting it yet. Taking that fake efficiency into Coors Field against the Dodgers tomorrow is a recipe for complete disaster.
UPCOMING GAMESNCAAF
Next college slate · AUG 29
BDL lists 6 verified FBS-vs-FBS games on the next college slate. All 6 kickoff times are confirmed.
STARTER FORMTEX @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 2.60 ERA over his last 3 starts
Jacob Lopez has found another gear over his last three starts, posting a 2.60 ERA while finishing more at-bats with strikeouts. Texas is seeing a much tougher pitcher than Lopez’s season line advertises.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ MIN
Byron Buxton (bats R) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Byron Buxton’s better production comes against right-handed pitching despite the same-handed matchup. Hitting second gives him an immediate look at Andrew Painter and maximizes his chances to influence the game.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
RUNNING GAMEBOS @ PIT
Boston Red Sox like to run — Henry Davis (49% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Boston loves to press the action on the basepaths, but running on Henry Davis is a losing strategy given his absurd 49% caught-stealing rate. Pittsburgh holds complete leverage behind the dish, forcing Boston to rely entirely on hit-and-run execution.
P Boston Red Sox stole 0 bases
REGRESSIONTEX @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 5.38 ERA vs 3.42 xERA
Jacob Lopez’s 5.38 ERA sits well above his 3.42 expected mark, and the weak contact against him supports real improvement ahead. I expect better run prevention against Texas, provided he stops the extra baserunners from stacking up.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
BULLPENPHI @ MIN
Minnesota Twins pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Minnesota's bullpen is gassed after logging 13 innings in three days, leaving key setup arms heavily fatigued. Philadelphia is set up ideally to break things open in the late frames against a depleted Twins middle relief.
STARTER FORMBAL @ TB
Freddy Peralta: 7.90 ERA over his last 3 starts
Freddy Peralta has a 7.90 ERA over his last three starts and is allowing games to unravel once runners reach. Baltimore gets a favorable opportunity to pressure him before he can settle in.
P 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ HOU
Hunter Brown vs Randy Arozarena: 1-for-16, 7 K
Brown has reduced Arozarena to one hit in 16 at-bats with seven strikeouts. That repeated failure to make useful contact gives Brown a clear individual advantage tonight.
P 2-for-5, 6 TB
STARTER FORMKC @ LAA
Noah Cameron: 2.08 ERA over his last 3 starts
Noah Cameron has been an absolute workhorse lately, throwing 21.7 innings over three starts with a shiny 2.08 ERA. He is commanding games deep into the night, giving Kansas City a massive starting pitching advantage in Anaheim.
P 9 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
BALLPARKCHW @ DET
At Comerica Park, Drew Anderson pitches to a 2.89 ERA
Drew Anderson’s 2.89 ERA at Comerica Park points to a setting where his contact management plays considerably better. I like his chances of delivering another effective home start against Chicago.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
CUT LISTTEX tonight
Cody Freeman
Still hitting 6th for TEX — 0.496 OPS, 0.211 AVG from the 6-hole.
RUNNING GAMESD @ CLE
Green light: San Diego Padres run, and Austin Hedges has caught just 5%
San Diego should have the green light whenever a runner reaches against Austin Hedges and his 5% caught-stealing rate. The Padres can manufacture scoring chances without needing to string together multiple hits.
P San Diego Padres stole 0 bases
REGRESSIONBAL @ TB
Chandler Simpson: .308 AVG vs .261 xBA
Chandler Simpson’s .308 average is running well ahead of his .261 expected mark. I’m looking to fade his hits and total bases rather than pay for results his contact does not fully support.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
REGRESSIONBOS @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .256 AVG vs .210 xBA
Valdez is hitting .256, but his .210 xBA tells the real story about how weak his contact has actually been. Negative regression is right around the corner, making this a prime spot to fade his offensive props against Boston tonight.
P 2-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/16
Carter Baumler
Baumler is on Texas’ 60-day IL with a rib injury, and his listed return date is today. A 3.18 ERA makes him worth monitoring, but I’m not stashing a reliever solely on a roster listing. WATCH
FIRST INNINGNYY @ TOR
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of NYY @ TOR
I like the first inning of Yankees-Blue Jays to stay scoreless. Dylan Cease gives Toronto a difficult bottom half, while New York’s recent opening-inning form reduces the chance that it immediately punishes Ryan Weathers.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
REGRESSIONTEX @ OAK
Zack Gelof: .273 AVG vs .230 xBA
Gelof's .273 average is severely overstating the actual quality of his hit balls. A .230 xBA means his production is heavily primed for negative regression, starting tonight against Texas.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
REGRESSIONBOS @ PIT
Jake Mangum: .301 AVG vs .256 xBA
Mangum's .301 average looks shiny on paper, but a .256 xBA reveals he has been living off generous defense and soft contact. Expect his surface output to trend downward starting tonight in Pittsburgh.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REGRESSIONSD @ CLE
Ty France: .296 AVG vs .251 xBA
Ty France’s .296 average is running well above the .251 quality of contact underneath it. I’m treating his hitter markets as overpriced and leaning toward lower individual production.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
STARTER FORMKC @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 4.73 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ryan Johnson is showing tangible growth, whittling his ERA down to 4.73 over his last three outings compared to his 6.71 season mark. Facing Kansas City tonight, his actual current form is outpacing his bloated season reputation.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ HOU
Christian Walker vs Bryan Woo: .400
Walker has seen Woo well and has done more than collect harmless singles. The sample is short, but I like Walker to drive the ball when Woo has to challenge him.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONCOL @ SF
Mickey Moniak: .265 AVG vs .221 xBA
Moniak's .265 batting average is floating on thin air compared to his .221 xBA. When actual results lag this far behind underlying contact quality, a sharp downward correction is right around the corner.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PARK WEATHERSTL @ CHC
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Wrigley Field tonight
Conditions at Wrigley Field: Partly Cloudy, 79°, wind 10 mph, Out To RF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 9.
P final total 15 vs 9 (over lean)
PARK WEATHERPHI @ MIN
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Target Field tonight
The 10 mph wind blowing toward right field at Target Field rewards pulled and opposite-field power in that direction. Any mistake left up can turn into immediate damage for either lineup.
P final total 12 vs 9.5 (over lean)
FANTASY PICKUPSMIA @ CIN
Xavier Edwards
Pickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.18 xERA) — .748 OPS, bats 4th.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIA @ CIN
Heriberto Hernandez
Pickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.18 xERA) — .753 OPS, bats 2nd.
REGRESSIONBOS @ PIT
Patrick Sandoval: 3.3 ERA vs 4.59 xERA
Patrick Sandoval’s 3.30 ERA is difficult to trust alongside a 4.59 expected mark and a 1.70 WHIP. Boston may keep winning his starts, but I’m fading his individual run prevention against Pittsburgh tonight.
P 4 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
REGRESSIONMIA @ CIN
Nick Lodolo: 4.86 ERA vs 6.18 xERA
Nick Lodolo’s 6.18 expected ERA is even worse than his 4.86 actual mark, with dangerous hard-hit and barrel rates driving the concern. Miami gets a more favorable matchup than Lodolo’s surface ERA implies.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
REGRESSIONBAL @ TB
Freddy Peralta: 5.33 ERA vs 4.03 xERA
Freddy Peralta’s 5.33 ERA should move toward his 4.03 expected mark, but that still describes a vulnerable pitcher rather than an ace-level rebound. I see improvement coming without trusting him to dominate Baltimore.
P 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
REGRESSIONPHI @ MIN
Andrew Painter: 6.27 ERA vs 4.91 xERA
Andrew Painter has suffered some poor fortune, but his 4.91 expected ERA says the 6.27 actual mark is not entirely a fluke. I expect some improvement against Minnesota without treating him as a trustworthy starter.
P 5 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
RETURN WATCHPIT — return listed 8/17
Oneil Cruz
Cruz is on Pittsburgh’s 60-day IL with a hand injury, with a listed return date one day away. That .822 OPS is enough for me to hold or stash him wherever an IL spot is available. STASH
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 8/17
Maikel Garcia
Garcia is on Kansas City’s 10-day IL with a hand injury, and his listed return date is one day away. With a .693 OPS, he’s a watch-list player for me rather than a priority stash. WATCH
CUT LISTSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
A .596 OPS with a .222 average is dead weight unless the lineup spot is doing real work for you. Batting second and starting tonight buy Cronenworth one last look, but they don't erase the season-long damage. CUT
PARK WEATHERBOS @ PIT
Wind blowing out 10 mph at PNC Park tonight
A 10 mph wind blowing out at PNC Park gives elevated contact through the middle extra carry. Both offenses get more scoring upside than this park usually provides.
P final total 11 vs 8.25 (over lean)
REGRESSIONARI @ ATL
Michael Soroka: 2.92 ERA vs 4.17 xERA
Michael Soroka’s 2.92 ERA has a solid base, but his 4.17 expected mark and elevated barrel rate warn that more damage is coming. Atlanta is a difficult place for that correction to stay hidden.
P 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
RUNNING GAMEWSH @ NYM
Washington Nationals like to run — Luis Torrens (38% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Washington likes to manufacture offense with its legs, but Luis Torrens’ 38% caught-stealing rate makes him the wrong catcher to challenge. I expect the Nationals to need connected hits rather than easy advancement tonight.
P Washington Nationals stole 0 bases
HEAD-TO-HEADBOS @ PIT
Pirates are 3-2 vs Red Sox this season
Pittsburgh’s 3-2 edge over Boston is too narrow to establish much, especially after the Red Sox controlled the latest meeting. I’m treating the season series as neutral tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADMIA @ CIN
Marlins are 4-3 vs Reds this season
Miami holds a narrow 4-3 lead in the season series, backed by a decisive six-run blowout in their last meeting with Cincinnati. The Reds have a chance to pull back even on home turf tonight, but the Marlins arrive with plenty of road confidence.
HEAD-TO-HEADNYY @ TOR
Yankees are 7-6 vs Blue Jays this season
The Yankees’ 7-6 season edge over Toronto confirms how evenly these clubs have played. With the Blue Jays at home after controlling the latest meeting, the head-to-head record carries no meaningful betting edge for me.
TOMORROWDET @ PIT
Carmen Mlodzinski: 3.79 ERA vs 5.15 xERA
Mlodzinski is slated to start tomorrow against Detroit, but his 3.79 ERA is sitting on a shaky 5.15 xERA. He's dodged real damage despite giving up heavy contact, making him a prime fade target tomorrow.
REGRESSIONKC @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 6.71 ERA vs 5.54 xERA
Ryan Johnson’s 6.71 ERA should improve slightly toward his 5.54 expected mark, but the underlying profile remains poor. His low strikeout rate and heavy barrel damage give Kansas City a strong path to offense.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
CLOSER WATCHBAL @ TB
Bryan Baker
Tampa Bay is favored tonight, so Bryan Baker has a live save opportunity, but he threw yesterday. One outing in the last three games keeps the workload manageable, though his availability is a little less certain than a fully rested closer’s. This is not a committee. Keep Baker active and prioritize him for saves this week. Tyler Wells is only a speculative alternative if Baker gets a night off.
RETURN WATCHTOR — return listed 8/18
Joe Mantiply
Mantiply is on Toronto’s 60-day IL with a knee injury, with a listed return date two days away. The 2.04 ERA gets my attention, but I’m only stashing him in deeper formats where relief pitching matters. DEEP-LEAGUE STASH
TOMORROWATL @ MIN
Martín Pérez: 2.96 ERA vs 4.29 xERA
Pérez is surviving on pure hit-location luck with a sub-3.00 ERA masking a dangerous 4.29 xERA and a 37.4% hard-hit rate. Hitters are driving the ball hard against him, and those metrics are set to explode tomorrow in Minnesota. Keep an eye on Minnesota's team total over when tomorrow's lines open up.
TOMORROWOAK @ KC
Mason Barnett: 6.16 ERA vs 4.82 xERA
Mason Barnett's 6.16 ERA looks rough, but his 4.82 xERA shows he has been hit with brutal sequencing and bad luck. His underlying contact metrics aren't nearly as bad as his run totals suggest, so look for a much cleaner performance tomorrow against Kansas City.
TOMORROWATL @ MIN
Martín Pérez: 2.96 ERA vs 4.29 xERA
Martín Pérez is sporting a clean 2.96 ERA, but his 4.29 xERA warns that serious regression is looming ahead of tomorrow's start against Minnesota. Opponents are hitting just .208 against him despite a .253 expected mark, so prepare to fade him soon.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIA @ CIN
Javier Sanoja
Pickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.18 xERA) — .711 OPS, bats 5th.
CUT LISTOAK tonight
Tommy White
Still hitting 5th for OAK — 0.555 OPS, 0.255 AVG from the 5-hole.
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.627 OPS, 0.214 AVG from the 4-hole.
STARTER FORMSEA @ HOU
Bryan Woo: 2.65 ERA over his last 3 starts
Bryan Woo has been locked in lately, posting a 2.65 ERA over his last three starts with 18 strikeouts in 17 innings. That stretch is a full run and a half better than his season baseline, giving Seattle a starter in top form heading into Houston tonight.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
FANTASY PICKUPSKC @ LAA
Bobby Witt Jr.
Pickup vs Ryan Johnson (5.54 xERA) — .800 OPS, bats 2nd.
TOMORROWOAK @ KC
Mason Barnett: 6.16 ERA vs 4.82 xERA
Keep an eye on Barnett projected tomorrow against Kansas City. His ugly 6.16 ERA hides a much better 4.82 xERA, signaling he's due for a positive bounce back once bounce luck turns in his favor.
BALLPARKSTL @ CHC
Edward Cabrera owns a 5.71 ERA at Wrigley Field — 4.31 everywhere else
Edward Cabrera’s 5.71 ERA at Wrigley Field makes this his clear problem venue. St. Louis should have opportunities whenever his command slips and the extra traffic begins to build.
P 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
CUT LISTPIT tonight
Jared Triolo
Still hitting 1st for PIT — 0.638 OPS, 0.244 AVG from the 1-hole.
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Ryan Johnson
There’s no hidden optimism here: Johnson owns a 6.71 ERA with a 5.54 xERA. He starts tonight, but I’m not letting that force me into another roll of the dice. CUT
CUT LISTWSH tonight
Dylan Crews
Crews is batting third tonight, but a .651 OPS and .214 average haven't justified the premium lineup spot. Opportunity matters; production matters more. CUT
BALLPARKNYY @ TOR
At Rogers Centre, Dylan Cease pitches to a 3.04 ERA
Dylan Cease’s 3.04 ERA at Rogers Centre is strong, even if his road work elsewhere has been better. The venue gives the Yankees only a modest opening against an otherwise difficult assignment.
P 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
CUT LISTWSH tonight
Jake Irvin
Irvin’s 5.79 ERA is backed by a 5.36 xERA, so neither the results nor the underlying performance gives me a reason to stay patient. I’d move on before tonight’s start. CUT
FANTASY PICKUPSWSH @ NYM
Francisco Lindor
Lindor gets Jake Irvin and his struggling 5.36 xERA tonight. Batting second gives Lindor a premium place in the Mets order, and his .774 OPS makes him the strongest shortstop target in this group. Add him wherever available, especially if you need a shortstop or a one-day bat near the top of the order.
CUT LISTMIA tonight
Leo Jimenez
Still hitting 6th for MIA — 0.575 OPS, 0.204 AVG from the 6-hole.
FANTASY PICKUPSWSH @ NYM
Carson Benge
Benge pairs a .275 average and .757 OPS with the cleanup spot against struggling Jake Irvin and his 5.36 xERA. That lineup position makes him an attractive source of opportunity tonight. Add him in deep leagues if you need an outfielder with a favorable matchup and cleanup placement.
FANTASY PICKUPSBOS @ PIT
Lake Bachar
Lake Bachar gives me enough to chase here: a 3.67 xERA, 9.3 K/9 and 1.08 WHIP, with the estimators slightly more optimistic than his 3.98 ERA. Boston is the matchup, so this is a calculated deep-league swing rather than a blind stream. Add him in deep leagues if you need strikeouts and can tolerate the matchup risk.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/20
Robert Garcia
Garcia is on Texas’ 60-day IL with a shoulder injury, and his listed return date is four days away. His 3.38 ERA keeps him on the radar, but I’d wait for an actual roster move before spending a stash spot. WATCH
PARK WEATHERARI @ ATL
92° at Truist Park — the ball will carry tonight
At 92 degrees with a breeze helping toward left, Truist Park should reward balls hit in the air. Both lineups have the power to punish elevated mistakes, so I’m expecting extra-base damage and the potential for quick crooked innings.
P final total 8 vs 8.75 (over lean)
FANTASY PICKUPSSD @ CLE
Casey Mize
Casey Mize is the cleanest profile in this group. His 3.39 xERA and 3.38 ERA are nearly identical, and he backs them with 8.6 K/9 and a 1.09 WHIP heading into Cleveland. Add him in deep leagues, especially if you want the best balance of ratios and strikeouts among these options.
TOMORROWBAL @ TB
Shane McClanahan: 3.09 ERA vs 4.11 xERA
McClanahan's 3.09 ERA looks great on the surface, but giving up a 40.3% hard-hit rate and holding a 4.11 xERA signals big trouble ahead. Baltimore's hitters capitalize on heavy contact, setting up a tough match for him tomorrow. Look to attack his props or take Baltimore early on tomorrow's card.
TOMORROWBAL @ TB
Shane McClanahan: 3.09 ERA vs 4.11 xERA
Shane McClanahan's 3.09 ERA is hiding a 4.11 expected ERA heading into tomorrow's start against Baltimore. That full-run gap signals a cool-down is right around the corner once opponent hit luck normalizes.
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Charles McAdoo
McAdoo's .657 OPS and .220 average make him replaceable in a season-long format. Batting second tonight is enough reason to use him for this game if needed, not enough reason to keep carrying him. CUT
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ SF
Gabriel Hughes
Gabriel Hughes is my bet-on-the-skills play. The 5.61 ERA is ugly, but his 3.03 xERA says the underlying work has been considerably better; the 8.3 K/9 helps, though the 1.28 WHIP keeps this from being a comfortable start against San Francisco. Add him in deep leagues if you can absorb WHIP risk and want to speculate on the gap between his ERA and xERA.
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ SF
Blade Tidwell
Blade Tidwell brings the strongest surface results here with a 2.78 ERA, while his 3.15 xERA and 1.10 WHIP still support the profile. The 7.5 K/9 limits the strikeout ceiling, but the matchup with Colorado makes him appealing today. Add him in deep leagues if protecting ratios matters more than maximizing strikeouts.
RUNNING GAMESD @ CLE
Cleveland Guardians like to run — Freddy Fermin (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cleveland’s running game meets real resistance from Freddy Fermin and his 33% caught-stealing rate. The Guardians need to choose their spots carefully because one reckless attempt could erase traffic and shut down an inning.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 0 bases
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 8/21
Nick Mears
Mears is on Kansas City’s 60-day IL with a shoulder injury, with a listed return date five days away. A 5.12 ERA gives me no reason to reserve a stash spot here. PASS
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/21
Jordan Lawlar
Lawlar is on Arizona’s 10-day IL with a hamstring injury, with a listed return date five days away. A .856 OPS makes this an easy hold and a strong stash if he’s available. STASH
BALLPARKMIA @ CIN
Nick Lodolo's ERA jumps to 5.27 at Great American Ball Park
Nick Lodolo’s ERA rises to 5.27 at Great American Ball Park, where opponents have consistently found better contact against him. Miami can turn the venue against him quickly by attacking early strikes.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
TOMORROWBAL @ TB
Brandon Young: 3.33 ERA vs 4.17 xERA
Brandon Young's 3.33 ERA is hiding a massive 41% hard-hit rate and a 4.17 xERA. That volume of loud contact is going to catch up to him tomorrow when he faces a disciplined Tampa Bay lineup. Prepare to target Tampa's offense once tomorrow's odds drop.
CUT LISTDET tonight
Zach McKinstry
The case for cutting McKinstry is the season-long production: a .622 OPS and .218 average simply aren't giving your roster enough. Batting fifth and being in tonight's lineup help his immediate opportunity, but they don't erase the larger body of work. Cut him in standard season-long leagues.
TOMORROWBAL @ TB
Brandon Young: 3.33 ERA vs 4.17 xERA
Brandon Young’s 3.33 ERA looks modestly fortunate beside a 4.17 expected mark. The hard-contact volume makes it difficult to support his current run prevention against Tampa Bay.
FANTASY PICKUPSPHI @ MIN
Kody Clemens
Clemens gets the cleanup spot against struggling Andrew Painter and his 4.91 xERA. The .227 average adds risk, but a .740 OPS and premium lineup placement create enough matchup appeal for today. Add him in deep leagues if you need second-base help and can accept batting-average risk.
FANTASY PICKUPSPHI @ MIN
Josh Bell
Bell bats third against Andrew Painter, whose 4.91 xERA marks him as tonight's struggling starter. Bell's .253 average and .737 OPS are usable, and the heart-of-the-order assignment strengthens the case. Add him in deep leagues if you need a DH bat for tonight's favorable matchup.
BULLPENCHW @ DET
Detroit Tigers pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Don't be scared off by the 12.7 relief innings Detroit has logged over their last three games; their key high-leverage arms remain completely fresh. The Tigers hold a decisive bullpen advantage over the White Sox late in this game.
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 8/21
Gavin Stone
Stone is on the Dodgers’ 60-day IL with a shoulder injury, and his listed return date is five days away. Without a season line, I’m not betting a valuable roster spot on the listing alone. WATCH
RUNNING GAMEPHI @ MIN
Green light: Philadelphia Phillies run, and Victor Caratini has caught just 16%
Philadelphia has the green light against Victor Caratini, who has caught only 16% of attempted base stealers. The Phillies can create scoring opportunities with their legs and force Minnesota to split its attention all night.
P Philadelphia Phillies stole 0 bases
FIRST INNINGBOS @ PIT
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Pittsburgh has scored in the first inning only once in its last 10 games, and Patrick Sandoval’s clean opening work strengthens that trend. I expect the Pirates to need the middle innings to build their offense.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGPHI @ MIN
MIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Minnesota has scored in the first inning only once in its last 10, but Andrew Painter’s opening struggles keep this from being an automatic NRFI spot. Philadelphia is the more likely side to strike early, and I see enough vulnerability on both sides to respect the chance of a first-inning run.
P flagged team scored 4 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGMIA @ CIN
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Miami has scored in the first inning just once in its last 10, and Nick Lodolo’s opening-inning profile supports another quiet top half. Cincinnati has a one-swing route against Eury Pérez, but I still lean toward a scoreless first.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 8/25
Tyler Glasnow
Glasnow is currently on the 60-Day IL with a back injury, sporting a elite 2.72 ERA and a listed return date of August 25 (9 days away). Must-stash. An elite 2.72 ERA starter is well worth holding through a 9-day listed wait.

Graded results

Games

L
Rays ML -140
MLB · 10-2
W
Atlanta Braves ML -124
MLB · 3-5
L
Mets -1.5 +124
MLB · 3-4
W
White Sox ML +103
MLB · 7-5
W
Yankees ML +110
MLB · 4-3
W
Miami Marlins ML -118
MLB · 7-1
L
Twins ML +100
MLB · 7-5
W
Cardinals +1.5 -131
MLB · 11-4
L
Angels ML +106
MLB · 3-0
L
Red Sox ML -108
MLB · 3-8
L
Rangers ML -129
MLB · 2-5
W
Brewers +1.5 -138
MLB · 6-2
L
Giants ML -124
MLB · 13-7
W
Padres ML -105
MLB · 5-0
L
Astros ML -123
MLB · 3-2

Props

L
Alejandro Kirk · over
Yankees @ Blue Jays · Actual 1
L
Andrew Painter · over
Phillies @ Twins · Actual 2
L
Blade Tidwell · over
Rockies @ Giants · Actual 1
W
Brayan Rocchio · under
Padres @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Bryan Woo · under
Mariners @ Astros · Actual 18
W
Christian Scott · over
Nationals @ Mets · Actual 7
W
Cody Bradford · under
Rangers @ Athletics · Actual 4
L
Drew Anderson · under
White Sox @ Tigers · Actual 15
W
Dylan Cease · over
Yankees @ Blue Jays · Actual 10
W
Eury Perez · under
Marlins @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Freddy Peralta · under
Orioles @ Rays · Actual 14
W
Gabriel Hughes · over
Rockies @ Giants · Actual 7
W
Hunter Dobbins · over
Cardinals @ Cubs · Actual 7
L
Jac Caglianone · over
Royals @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Jackson Merrill · over
Padres @ Guardians · Actual 1
W
Jake Bauers · over
Brewers @ Dodgers · Actual 4
L
Jake Irvin · under
Nationals @ Mets · Actual 18
L
Jim Jarvis · under
Diamondbacks @ Braves · Actual 1
W
JJ Wetherholt · over
Cardinals @ Cubs · Actual 1
W
Logan Henderson · under
Brewers @ Dodgers · Actual 1
L
Michael Soroka · under
Diamondbacks @ Braves · Actual 17
W
Nick Lodolo · under
Marlins @ Reds · Actual 15
W
Patrick Sandoval · under
Red Sox @ Pirates · Actual 12
L
Royce Lewis · over
Phillies @ Twins · Actual 1
L
Ryan Johnson · under
Royals @ Angels · Actual 16
L
Sean Burke · over
White Sox @ Tigers · Actual 2
L
Tommy White · under
Rangers @ Athletics · Actual 5
L
Wilyer Abreu · over
Red Sox @ Pirates · Actual 0
L
Yainer Diaz · under
Mariners @ Astros · Actual 1
L
Yandy Diaz · over
Orioles @ Rays · Actual 1