Royals at Angels
O/U 9.5 · RL Royals -1.5
Angels ML+106
CONF 58%
LLostFinal 3-0
The read
Sunday afternoon in Anaheim, the breeze is carrying toward center and two worn-down clubs are playing for the series. This is the kind of tight getaway game where I want the home underdog at plus money.
Noah Cameron is the steadier starter, but Kansas City is 1-9 in his road starts and 21-44 away overall. Ryan Johnson’s ugly season ERA creates the price, yet he has pitched considerably better at Angel Stadium and has allowed only two earned runs across his last two outings. If he limits the sinker and works through his cutter and splitter, he can keep this close.
The deciding factor is what happens after the starters leave. Johnson rarely supplies length, but the Angels have the stronger current bullpen and several rested late-inning options behind him. Kansas City’s relief corps has been unreliable, while the Angels have won four of five and can finish with Joyce if they get ahead. I’ll take Los Angeles to win outright rather than pay heavy juice for the run-and-a-half cushion.
Props on this game
2Jac CaglianoneOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+109
LActual 0
Caglianone is the Kansas City bat I want against Ryan Johnson. He is 22-for-51 with five homers over his last 15 games, and his recent contact includes a 97.7 mph average exit velocity, 14 hard-hit balls and five barrels. Johnson has allowed an .852 OPS to left-handed hitters, while his heavily used sinker has been hit especially hard. Caglianone needs only a double or two singles, and I like getting plus money on the hottest hitter in this lineup.
Ryan JohnsonUNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs+105
LActual 16
Johnson has failed to record 15 outs in four consecutive starts, completing 4 1/3 innings or fewer in each. His command remains the obstacle: he has issued 10 walks across his last three outings, which keeps his pitch count moving even when he limits the damage. Kansas City can send five left-handed hitters at a pitcher who has struggled badly with that side, and the Angels have enough rested relief depth to make an early move. At plus money, I’m betting Johnson is gone before completing the fifth.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store