Red Sox at Pirates
O/U 8.5 · RL Red Sox -1.5
Red Sox ML-108
CONF 64%
LLostFinal 3-8
The read
Gray skies over the Allegheny, wind drifting toward center, and a getaway-day rubber match at PNC Park. The whole handicap changed when Paul Skenes was scratched.
At nearly even money, I’ll back Boston’s real starter against Pittsburgh’s improvised pitching chain. Lake Bachar has not started in 57 days, never worked beyond three innings in his four starts, and now hands the game to the weaker, busier bullpen. That is a difficult way to navigate Abreu’s hot bat and a Red Sox lineup capable of punishing the first reliever who misses.
Sandoval will allow traffic, but his changeup is the best swing-and-miss pitch either starter brings, and Pittsburgh owns just a .691 OPS against lefties. Boston also has the fresher, stronger late-inning group. Yoshida’s absence and the getaway spot keep me off the run line, but -108 is too cheap after the pitching change.
Props on this game
2Patrick SandovalUNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-148
WActual 12
Sandoval has completed the sixth inning once in six starts, and Boston has little reason to extend him on four days’ rest. His 1.70 WHIP and nine walks over his last three outings create the pitch-count pressure I want for this under.
The rising rain risk adds another path to an early exit, while yesterday’s seven innings from Sonny Gray left Boston’s bullpen prepared to cover the back half. I’m betting Sandoval is gone before recording his 16th out.
Wilyer AbreuOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+115
LActual 0
Abreu has cleared this number in nine of his last 15 games while producing six homers, and he delivered three extra-base hits Saturday. The quality supports the heater: he has 13 recent hard-hit balls and three barrels.
Lake Bachar has allowed a 9.8% barrel rate and will give way early to a Pittsburgh bullpen carrying the weaker season numbers and two key arms who worked both Friday and Saturday. With Abreu batting third and getting plus money, I’ll back him for another extra-base hit or a multi-hit game.
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