Red Sox at Pirates
O/U 7.5 · RL Red Sox -1.5
Red Sox ML-116
CONF 64%
WCashedFinal 4-0
The read
Saturday night at PNC Park, warm air, almost no wind, and Pittsburgh looking to carry Friday’s fireworks into Game 2. Boston sends its veteran anchor to the mound with the road trip nearing its end.
The bet comes down to the starting-pitching gap. Sonny Gray can disrupt a Pirates lineup that is vulnerable to chase with his sweeper and curveball, while Jared Jones has shortened in consecutive starts and now faces a Boston order capable of grinding through high velocity. If Jones exits early again, Boston also owns the more trustworthy late-inning bullpen.
Pittsburgh is dangerous right now, especially with Rafael Flores Jr. scorching the baseball, but I’m not paying for a two-game offensive eruption when Gray is the opposing starter. At only -116, Boston’s advantages on the mound outweigh its road struggles. I’m putting the $100 on the Red Sox moneyline.
Props on this game
2Jared JonesUNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs+154
LActual 15
Jones has completed five innings in only four of his last eight starts, and his workload is moving in the wrong direction. He lasted four innings against Milwaukee and three against the Mets, allowing 14 earned runs across his last 13 innings.
Boston has enough patient left-handed bats to extend innings and force Jones to work beyond his fastball-slider combination. I only need him removed before recording the final out of the fifth, and +154 is an excellent price on an outcome that has cashed in consecutive starts.
Sonny GrayOVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-165
WActual 21
Gray has recorded at least 18 outs in seven of his last eight starts, including six innings in each of his first two August outings. His six-pitch mix gives him several ways through a lineup, and his sweeper and curveball are particularly useful against Pittsburgh's chase tendencies.
PNC Park and the nearly still conditions also favor run prevention. The price is substantial, but six completed innings is the expectation for Boston's veteran anchor tonight.
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