Brewers at Orioles
O/U 1.5 · RL Brewers -1.5 · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Orioles ML -108
- Published odds
- -108
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 1-0
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 10 moves| Market | Opened Sep 19 5:00 AM | Close Sep 19 3:02 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Brewers -1.5 (+124) | Brewers -1.5 (+150) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8 (-110) | 7.5 (-110) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Orioles +112 | Orioles -111 | −223 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 19 5:00 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+124) | 8 (-110) | Orioles +112 · Brewers -135 |
| Sep 19 6:00 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+128) | 8 (-112) | Orioles +109 · Brewers -132 |
| Sep 19 7:15 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+128) | 8 (-112) | Orioles +109 · Brewers -132 |
| Sep 19 10:11 AM | Brewers -1.5 (+145) | 7.5 (-116) | Orioles -106 · Brewers -114 |
| Sep 19 12:56 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+145) | 7.5 (-117) | Orioles -106 · Brewers -114 |
| Sep 19 1:28 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+145) | 7.5 (-116) | Orioles -106 · Brewers -114 |
| Sep 19 1:37 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+146) | 7.5 (-112) | Orioles -108 · Brewers -111 |
| Sep 19 1:40 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+146) | 7.5 (-110) | Orioles -109 · Brewers -110 |
| Sep 19 1:54 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+146) | 7.5 (-110) | Orioles -109 · Brewers -111 |
| Sep 19 1:57 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+146) | 7.5 (-110) | Orioles -109 · Brewers -111 |
| CLOSESep 19 3:02 PM | Brewers -1.5 (+150) | 7.5 (-110) | Orioles -111 · Brewers -109 |
The read
Milwaukee and Baltimore meet again at Camden Yards after Friday’s extra-inning opener, with Robert Gasser facing Trevor Rogers in a matchup of left-handers. I’m taking Baltimore at -108 because its middle-order matchup and Rogers’ recent command give me the strongest combination for this particular game. Coby Mayo has a 1.116 OPS against lefties over 140 at-bats, while Christian Encarnacion-Strand has a 1.076 OPS over 64. The latter sample deserves restraint, but those are meaningful results against the handedness they face today. Gasser has allowed an .800 OPS to right-handed hitters, and Baltimore puts Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand together behind Pete Alonso.
Rogers supplies the other reason I land here: 35 strikeouts against three walks across his latest five starts, totaling 32 innings. His recent innings coverage supports my estimate that Baltimore can require fewer bullpen outs than Milwaukee. That matters after both clubs used numerous relievers Friday, although nobody’s availability is established by a pitch count alone. Baltimore’s sampled relief results also support the choice: a 2.74 ERA across 49⅓ innings compared with Milwaukee’s 5.07 across 55. I give that supporting weight, with Anthony Nunez’s 20 strikeouts against four walks over his last 12⅔ relief innings providing a more specific reason to respect Baltimore’s relief work.
The strongest argument against Baltimore is that Gasser has recently prevented runs better, while Rogers’ excellent walk control has come with home-run damage. Jackson Chourio’s .949 OPS against lefties gives Milwaukee a substantial counter, and Uribe and Megill offer credible closing options if usable. I’m accepting those risks because Baltimore’s case connects today’s actual lineup to Gasser’s documented weaker side, with Rogers’ command and length adding another advantage. At identical moneyline prices, that combination earns my bet. The bullpen uncertainty keeps my conviction measured, but Orioles -108 is the side I trust.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
1.116Coby Mayo bats third against LHP Robert Gasser with a 1.116 OPS in 140 AB versus left-handers. His OPS is .576 in 247 AB versus right-handers.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (bats R) hits 4th against Robert Gasser (LHP)
1.076Christian Encarnacion-Strand bats fourth against LHP Robert Gasser with a 1.076 OPS in 64 AB versus left-handers. His OPS is .694 in 112 AB versus right-handers.
HEAT CHECK
Brice Turang: 1.262 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.262Brice Turang sits at a 1.262 OPS over the last 15 days in 41 at-bats, 0.453 clear of his .809 season baseline. He has 19 home runs on the year, and tonight's total-bases line is 0.5 at Baltimore.
HR THREAT
Coby Mayo
+401Gary's Take I’m taking Coby Mayo over 0.5 home runs at +401. This is a price-driven long shot built around a clear handedness matchup: Mayo has 16 home runs and a 1.116 OPS in 140 at-bats against left-handed pitching.
TEAM RECORD
Brewers 6-2 in Robert Gasser's last 8 starts
6-2Milwaukee has won six of eight in Robert Gasser's last eight starts this season, and he starts tonight at Baltimore. The 6-2 covers club outcomes on his days; no pitcher line is attached to it.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betmgm, betrivers, draftkings.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJACKSON CHOURIOH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
I’m taking Jackson Chourio over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs at -142. He has cleared this line in 11 of his last 15 games and owns a .949 OPS across 143 at-bats against left-handed pitching. Batting leadoff gives him a strong volume projection, and Trevor Rogers has allowed right-handed hitters a .272 average and .772 OPS this season. Chourio also went 2-for-5 with a homer, three RBIs, a run and two steals in the series opener.
The strongest counter is Rogers’ recent command: he has 22 strikeouts against one walk over his last three starts and has completed at least six innings in five of his last six. Chourio has also gone hitless in four of his last six games. Still, this combination prop gives him several paths to cash, and his lineup position plus established production against lefties justify the price.
- THE LONG SHOTCOBY MAYOHR OVER 0.5
I’m taking Coby Mayo over 0.5 home runs at +401. This is a price-driven long shot built around a clear handedness matchup: Mayo has 16 home runs and a 1.116 OPS in 140 at-bats against left-handed pitching. Robert Gasser has been materially less effective against right-handed hitters, allowing them an .800 OPS and 12 home runs in 262 at-bats. Mayo bats third and enters off a three-double game, giving him a central role against Gasser and the Milwaukee bullpen.
The strongest counter is Gasser’s recent run prevention. He has allowed only four earned runs over his last three starts and just one home run during that stretch. Mayo’s overall season line is also more modest than his lefty split, and any one-game home run bet carries substantial variance. I’m accepting that variance because Mayo’s established power against southpaws makes +401 better than his matchup warrants.
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