Orioles at Cardinals

Getaway afternoon at Busch: Baltimore has taken the first two games, while St. Louis turns the finale over to a reliever-led pitching plan. The series results are background; the bet is about which club has the cleaner route through nine innings.

Trevor Rogers gives Baltimore dependable length, completing at least six innings in five of his last six starts. He carries a 3.71 ERA with 16 strikeouts and four walks over his last three, along with a 3.36 day ERA and 3.95 road ERA. Gordon Graceffo has been effective—3.13 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and a 2.55 ERA at Busch—but his 52 appearances have all been in relief. St. Louis will likely need more outs from its bullpen.

That is the separation. Orioles relievers have thrown seven scoreless innings in this series and own a 0.45 ERA over the last seven days. Cardinals relievers have allowed six earned runs in nine series innings and carry a 9.24 ERA over the same period. Peter Strzelecki’s fresh absence removes another option from a staff already playing a bullpen game.

There is enough resistance to keep me off Baltimore -1.5. St. Louis starts seven right-handed hitters against Rogers, who has allowed a .768 OPS to righties, while Graceffo has limited left-handed hitters to a .527 OPS against Baltimore’s lefty-heavy lineup. The Cardinals also scored seven runs Wednesday, and Baltimore has its own fresh absence in Tyler O’Neill. I want Rogers and the better-performing relief chain, but I only need the Orioles to win.