Brewers at Orioles

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  DUSTIN MAYK'S UNDER 5.5

  MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -115

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 4

  GARY'S TAKE

  May pitches to contact more than he pitches for strikeouts — a sinker-cutter mix that leans on ground balls, not whiffs — and his season rate of 4.8 strikeouts a start sits comfortably under this number. He's finished under 5.5 in six of his last eight turns, and he hasn't been going deep into games lately either: under five innings a start on average this season, with two outings this year that ended almost immediately, one after a comebacker off his shoulder blade against the Mets and one that fell apart early against Seattle. Fewer innings means fewer swings at a sixth strikeout. The contrary case is Baltimore's lineup itself. This is a team that strikes out 9.41 times a game as a club, well above average, with Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo and Dylan Beavers all whiffing in around a third of their at-bats this season — exactly the kind of free-swinging lineup that hands a pitcher strikeouts without needing a long outing to find them. May's last time out, six strikeouts over six innings against Cincinnati, was also his best swing-and-miss start since coming over in the trade, which argues for continued improvement rather than more of the same modest totals. I'm still leaning on the season-long rate and his recent workload over the matchup.

  ×

  Dustin May
  K'S under 5.5

  -115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 4

  Milwaukee Brewers

  Read Gary’s Take

  May pitches to contact more than he pitches for strikeouts — a sinker-cutter mix that leans on ground balls, not whiffs — and his season rate of 4.8 strikeouts a start sits comfortably under this number. He's finished under 5.5 in six of his last eight turns, and he hasn't been going deep into games lately either: under five innings a start on average this season, with two outings this year that ended almost immediately, one after a comebacker off his shoulder blade against the Mets and one that fell apart early against Seattle. Fewer innings means fewer swings at a sixth strikeout.

  The contrary case is Baltimore's lineup itself. This is a team that strikes out 9.41 times a game as a club, well above average, with Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo and Dylan Beavers all whiffing in around a third of their at-bats this season — exactly the kind of free-swinging lineup that hands a pitcher strikeouts without needing a long outing to find them. May's last time out, six strikeouts over six innings against Cincinnati, was also his best swing-and-miss start since coming over in the trade, which argues for continued improvement rather than more of the same modest totals. I'm still leaning on the season-long rate and his recent workload over the matchup.

• GARY'S PICK

  LUIS LARATOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

  MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -155

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Lara hits eighth for Milwaukee and he's an everyday player, seeing the field in almost every game with real at-bats, so this line is just asking for one single. He's cleared half a base in 9 of his last 14 games, and the swing has looked fine lately — a double in the finale at Pittsburgh two starts ago. He's a switch-hitter, so he'll face Cade Povich from the right side tonight, and his .269 average against right-handers this year gives him more margin than his .246 mark against lefties. A contact bat at the bottom of the order with everyday at-bats and a hot recent stretch is the profile I want for a bar this low. The contrary case: Lara went hitless in his last look at Pittsburgh, and Povich has actually been tougher on right-handed bats than lefties in his limited MLB work this season — a small sample, but it cuts against the platoon angle I'm leaning on. And once you run his season averages, the market has this priced close to fair, so I'm not getting a big number here, just a reasonable one.

  ×

  Luis Lara
  Total Bases over 0.5

  -155 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Milwaukee Brewers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Lara hits eighth for Milwaukee and he's an everyday player, seeing the field in almost every game with real at-bats, so this line is just asking for one single. He's cleared half a base in 9 of his last 14 games, and the swing has looked fine lately — a double in the finale at Pittsburgh two starts ago. He's a switch-hitter, so he'll face Cade Povich from the right side tonight, and his .269 average against right-handers this year gives him more margin than his .246 mark against lefties. A contact bat at the bottom of the order with everyday at-bats and a hot recent stretch is the profile I want for a bar this low.

  The contrary case: Lara went hitless in his last look at Pittsburgh, and Povich has actually been tougher on right-handed bats than lefties in his limited MLB work this season — a small sample, but it cuts against the platoon angle I'm leaning on. And once you run his season averages, the market has this priced close to fair, so I'm not getting a big number here, just a reasonable one.

• THE LONG SHOT

  PETE ALONSOHR OVER 0.5

  MLBBaltimore Orioles· +420

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Alonso is running hot — three home runs in his last seven days, five over his last fifteen, a .904 OPS in that stretch — and tonight's matchup plays right into his season-long strength: a .272 average and .904 OPS with 28 home runs against right-handed pitching, against only nine home runs all year against lefties. Dustin May throws right-handed, and Alonso gets his usual four-or-so plate appearances hitting second in Baltimore's order. At plus-420, the price is well behind where his last two weeks say he actually is. The contrary case: May has allowed only four home runs across his last eight starts, and his most recent outing was praised as his best swing-and-miss start since Milwaukee acquired him, for whatever that says about his stuff missing barrels right now. Camden Yards also plays as a neutral, balanced park, so there's no ballpark thumb on the scale either way. A specific hitter going deep on a specific night is still the longest shot on the board even with a real edge, and I'm sizing my confidence to match that.

  ×

  Pete Alonso
  HR over 0.5

  +420 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Baltimore Orioles

  Read Gary’s Take

  Alonso is running hot — three home runs in his last seven days, five over his last fifteen, a .904 OPS in that stretch — and tonight's matchup plays right into his season-long strength: a .272 average and .904 OPS with 28 home runs against right-handed pitching, against only nine home runs all year against lefties. Dustin May throws right-handed, and Alonso gets his usual four-or-so plate appearances hitting second in Baltimore's order. At plus-420, the price is well behind where his last two weeks say he actually is.

  The contrary case: May has allowed only four home runs across his last eight starts, and his most recent outing was praised as his best swing-and-miss start since Milwaukee acquired him, for whatever that says about his stuff missing barrels right now. Camden Yards also plays as a neutral, balanced park, so there's no ballpark thumb on the scale either way. A specific hitter going deep on a specific night is still the longest shot on the board even with a real edge, and I'm sizing my confidence to match that.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.