Phillies picks

Winner take all at Truist Park, with the loser's season ending tonight. Aaron Nola takes the ball for Philadelphia against an Atlanta bullpen game that opens with lefty Ray Kerr and hands off to Grant Holmes. My pick comes down to which team has more left for the back half of the game, and Philadelphia does. Zack Wheeler is lined up behind Nola on three days' rest after a 1.67 ERA with 45 strikeouts in 37.2 innings over the last six starts. Jhoan Duran is fresh after being held out of Game 2. Atlanta's three trusted late arms, Raisel Iglesias, Didier Fuentes and Dylan Lee, all pitched on Sep 29 and Sep 30, and in the regular season none of them pitched a third straight day (0 of 28 combined). Game 2 already showed the strain: Lee gave up back-to-back homers to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, and Alec Bohm beat Fuentes in the 10th. The early innings support it too. On regular rest since mid-August, Nola has run about a 2.23 ERA over seven starts, including 13.1 innings and 3 earned runs against this lineup in September. Kerr hasn't gone past 35 pitches since returning, so Holmes carries the bulk, and Holmes threw only 29 strikes in 54 pitches in the one bulk-relief try. Harper has a .997 OPS against right-handers and .657 against lefties. Atlanta's opener gets Harper once, and every look after that comes against right-handed pitching. The case against is real. Austin Riley has hit .365 with 6 homers in 63 at-bats against Nola, and Atlanta's core does its damage on fastballs and sinkers, Nola's weakest pitches. Philadelphia's defense has soft spots, with Harper in right and Edmundo Sosa at third on a leg aggravated yesterday. Iglesias threw only 16 pitches across the two games and could go again in an elimination game. Still, Atlanta's edge is early, against Nola. Once Wheeler takes over, the history flips: Michael Harris II has a .415 OPS against Wheeler in 26 at-bats. At a coin-flip price, I want the team with better arms for innings six through nine. Phillies moneyline.