Marlins at Phillies
O/U 8 · RL Phillies -1.5
Phillies -1.5-122
CONF 68%
LLostFinal 5-6
The read
The lights come on at Citizens Bank Park with two division rivals carrying winning streaks into a warm August night. Miami is chasing Philadelphia in the Wild Card race, so this opener should have an October edge to it.
I’m laying the run and a half because Cristopher Sánchez has owned this ballpark: a 1.41 home ERA, with Philadelphia winning 12 of his 14 starts here. Miami loaded the lineup with right-handed bats for him, but Sánchez’s changeup-slider combination is still the best weapon in this game, and the Marlins are missing Kyle Stowers.
The separator is Philadelphia’s lineup against Janson Junk. His recent results are sharp, but the low whiff rates, 5.35 road ERA and major trouble against left-handed hitters make this a dangerous park for him. Schwarber, Harper, Stott and Marsh can turn contact into crooked numbers, while Bohm is scorching behind them. Add Philadelphia’s bullpen advantage, and I see the Phillies creating separation instead of merely surviving a close one.
Props on this game
2Bryson StottOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-120
WActual 2
The move to sixth costs Stott a little volume, but it should give him plenty of chances to produce behind Harper, Arraez and Bohm. He has cleared this number in 12 of his last 15 games while batting .362 over that stretch. The matchup strengthens the play: Janson Junk has allowed a .302 average and .813 OPS to left-handed hitters. Stott's low whiff rate gives him multiple routes to two combined hits, runs and RBIs.
Cristopher SanchezUNDER 18.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-130
WActual 18
This line requires Sánchez to record an out in the seventh inning, something he has done only once in his last eight starts. He has finished at six innings or fewer in each of his last five, frequently approaching 90 to 100 pitches along the way. Miami is presenting eight right-handed or switch-hitting bats, the side against which Sánchez has allowed a .289 average and .762 OPS. He can control the game and still leave after six, which is all I need.
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