Rays at Phillies
O/U 6.5 · RL Rays -1.5 · Citizens Bank Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Rays ML -102
- Published odds
- -102
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 12-1
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 16 moves| Market | Opened Sep 26 5:00 AM | Close Sep 26 6:15 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Phillies +1.5 (-198) | Phillies -1.5 (+178) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7 (-105) | 7 (+100) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Phillies -105 | Phillies -127 | −22 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 26 5:00 AM | Phillies +1.5 (-198) | 7 (-105) | Phillies -105 · Rays -114 |
| Sep 26 6:00 AM | Phillies +1.5 (-198) | 7 (-106) | Phillies -105 · Rays -114 |
| Sep 26 11:00 AM | Phillies +1.5 (-188) | 7 (-107) | Phillies -110 · Rays -110 |
| Sep 26 11:35 AM | Phillies +1.5 (-188) | 7 (-107) | Phillies -112 · Rays -107 |
| Sep 26 11:35 AM | Phillies +1.5 (-188) | 7 (-107) | Phillies -112 · Rays -108 |
| Sep 26 3:35 PM | Phillies +1.5 (-194) | 7 (-110) | Phillies -115 · Rays -105 |
| Sep 26 3:40 PM | Phillies +1.5 (-216) | 7 (-102) | Phillies -123 · Rays +102 |
| Sep 26 3:40 PM | Phillies +1.5 (-216) | 7 (-102) | Phillies -123 · Rays +102 |
| Sep 26 3:50 PM | Phillies +1.5 (-216) | 7 (-102) | Phillies -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sep 26 3:54 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+171) | 7 (-102) | Phillies -122 · Rays +102 |
| Sep 26 3:55 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+177) | 7 (-102) | Phillies -127 · Rays +106 |
| Sep 26 4:17 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+178) | 7 (-102) | Phillies -127 · Rays +106 |
| Sep 26 4:39 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+171) | 7 (-101) | Phillies -127 · Rays +106 |
| Sep 26 4:40 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+171) | 7 (-102) | Phillies -127 · Rays +106 |
| Sep 26 5:20 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+171) | 7 (-102) | Phillies -127 · Rays +106 |
| Sep 26 6:10 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+178) | 7 (+100) | Phillies -127 · Rays +106 |
| CLOSESep 26 6:15 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+178) | 7 (+100) | Phillies -127 · Rays +106 |
The read
Cold, overcast night at Citizens Bank Park with the wind blowing in from left at 16 mph — a pitcher's feel in a ballpark that usually plays hitter-friendly, and it frames a game where the mound math tilts to the road team. Philadelphia is asking Aaron Nola to start on two days' rest after an 88-pitch outing Wednesday, while Tampa Bay hands the ball to Griffin Jax, who last worked Sept. 20.
Start with the starters, because the rest-and-form asymmetry is the load-bearing piece. Jax is on five full days and genuinely rolling — a 0.60 ERA over his last three starts, all exactly five innings. His profile isn't overwhelming, but he's the fresher arm with the intact pitch count; he hands a lead to a bullpen that doesn't need to hide. Nola's surface story is better than his 4.54 ERA — his xERA is 4.12, so the market is paying for a number that oversells how badly he's actually thrown — but the two-days-rest flag overrides form. An earlier report had him pegged for a few relief innings; now he's the listed starter. Expect him out at 3–5 innings.
That's where the game gets decided. Nola's short outing pushes 4–6 innings onto a Phillies bullpen that has posted a 5.54 ERA / 1.79 WHIP in tracked games, and it's also the more taxed unit: Tim Mayza has thrown two straight days, and Jhoan Duran worked Friday. Tampa Bay is the mirror image — its pen has been the better group all year (2.96 ERA / 0.96 WHIP tracked), and every high-leverage arm worked a light outing Friday, leaving Bryan Baker and Kevin Kelly intact. The Rays also run a deeper order — four hitters at .793 OPS or better, led by Junior Caminero — against a Phillies club that has scored two runs across its last three games and lost Luis Arraez to a fresh ankle sprain.
The honest counter: this is a near coin-flip price (Phillies -116), the Phillies are home and desperate for a wild-card berth while the Rays have already clinched the No. 1 seed, and Bryce Harper mashes right-handed pitching. But motivation is a lean, not a lever, and the Rays have publicly said they're not cruising. With the better-rested arm, the fresher and better bullpen, and a cold, wind-in night that suppresses offense, Tampa Bay is the side at this price.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Griffin Jax: 0.60 ERA over his last 3 starts
0.60Jax has been dominant over his last 3 starts and 15 innings: a 0.67 WHIP against a 1.19 season mark, with 14 strikeouts. That strikeout and baserunner line backs up the run prevention, but three starts is still short next to a 3.62 season ERA, which is where most lines still price him against Tampa Bay.
COOLING OFF
Yandy Diaz: .350 OPS in Last 15 Days
.350Diaz has a .350 OPS over 49 AB, a deep slump for a hitter at .804 on the season. About two weeks of games can swing this hard on bad luck, and hitters with his track record tend to climb back toward their season mark. Against Philadelphia, give the .804 more weight than the cold run, and check whether his prop prices have already dropped because of the slump.
Kyle Schwarber: .583 OPS in Last 15 Days
.583Schwarber has a .583 OPS over his last 45 AB, well off his .861 season mark. His game runs on power, so a quiet stretch drags his OPS down fast and one big swing can lift it again. Against Tampa Bay, a price set off the slump deserves a second look against what he has done all year.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 26, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, draftkings, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKAARON NOLAPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 0.5
Nola is the listed starter on two days' rest, two days after an 88-pitch outing against Milwaukee, and this over asks only that Tampa Bay push one earned run across against him. That is a low bar for a pitcher whose season has been defined by traffic: a 4.54 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and thirty-six home runs allowed across 174 innings. Clean sheets have been rare for him, and at Citizens Bank Park they have been rarer still, where his ERA sits above five and a half over fifteen home starts. The Rays are the stronger and deeper offense in this matchup, and right-handed pitching is the side of the platoon they handle best, with a lineup OPS near .750 against righties. Add the workload piece: a starter on short rest typically carries a shortened leash, and one mistake pitch or one well-struck ball clears this number regardless of how long he lasts.
The strongest contrary case is recent form. Across his last three starts Nola has been the sharpest version of himself, working deep and keeping the ball in the park. Short rest can also bring a quick hook before he has faced enough hitters to allow a run, and the wind blowing in from center at 14 mph cuts against the home run and against big innings. I still take the over because the ask is a single earned run, and a short-rest start against a Rays lineup that does its best work against right-handed pitching makes a spotless outing the harder outcome to picture.
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