Phillies at Diamondbacks
O/U 8.5 · RL Phillies -1.5 · Chase Field
Phillies ML-108
CONF 56%
WCashedFinal 2-1
The read
Chase Field is closed for a late-night series opener between two clubs fighting for October position. With the price close to even, I’m backing Philadelphia’s current pitching trajectory and the matchup presented by its left-handed lineup.
Aaron Nola’s 5.03 season ERA remains a concern, but he has delivered 18.0 innings, four earned runs, 24 strikeouts and six walks over his last three starts. Brandon Pfaadt owns the better season ERA at 3.51, but his last two outings produced five earned runs against Boston and four against Chicago. His four-seam fastball also recorded a 9% whiff rate and .451 xwOBA in the latest start.
Philadelphia starts seven left-handed hitters against Pfaadt, who has allowed lefties a .262 average, .760 OPS and 11 home runs, compared with a .205 average, .551 OPS and one homer against righties. The Phillies have a .244 average and .721 OPS against right-handed pitching; Arizona has a .231 average and .687 OPS in the same split.
Arizona’s 3.08 bullpen ERA, Pfaadt’s 3.24 home ERA and Sunday off-day keep this from being a high-confidence play. Philadelphia’s bullpen has nevertheless posted a 2.45 ERA over the last ten days, while Nola’s recent run prevention gives the Phillies a viable route through the early innings. I want Philadelphia simply to win rather than asking for a two-run margin, so the moneyline is the ticket.
Props on this game
2Aaron NolaOVER 4.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts+103
LActual 4
I’m buying Nola’s current form at a favorable number. He has recorded at least five strikeouts in five of his last six starts, including 24 over 18 innings in his last three. His knuckle curve owns a 44.1% whiff rate and gives him a put-away pitch against an Arizona lineup with strikeout opportunities around Carroll, Tawa and Waldschmidt. At plus money, I only need five before Philadelphia turns it over to the bullpen.
Bryce HarperOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+128
WActual 3
Harper enters batting .362 with a 1.057 OPS over his last 15 games and has exceeded this number eight times during that stretch. The platoon matchup is the separator: Harper owns a .300 average and 1.031 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Pfaadt has allowed lefties a .262 average, .760 OPS and 11 home runs. Batting third should give Harper at least four chances, and one extra-base hit or two singles gets this home at a strong plus price.
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