Daily archive

2026-08-31

The stored Gary board for Mon, Aug 31. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB6:05 PM

Giants @ Braves

Truist Park gets a one-night makeup under clear, 91°F skies, with a 5 mph wind blowing toward right field. Atlanta carries a seven-game winning streak into a matchup San Francisco plans to open with Anthony Molina. I’m laying the run and a half instead of paying -194 because Atlanta’s clearest advantages extend across the full nine innings. Bryce Elder brings a 3.95 ERA over 143.2 innings and a 3.49 ERA at home, while Molina has no MLB starts this season and only 9.1 major-league innings. Molina’s 2.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in that limited work are respectable, but his short role puts greater weight on the relief units behind him. That bullpen comparison is the foundation of the ticket. Atlanta’s current relievers have a 2.58 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 185.0 innings; San Francisco’s have a 4.73 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 129.1. Over the last 10 days, the Braves’ bullpen has a 1.63 ERA versus 4.47 for the Giants. Atlanta also owns the cleaner defensive profile, with a .988 fielding percentage and 60 errors compared with San Francisco’s .982 and 88. There are real cautions. Elder has a 5.82 ERA over his last three starts, the Giants are producing 4.7 runs per game over their last 10 compared with Atlanta’s 3.0, and San Francisco leads the season series 4-1. Those facts keep this from being a high-confidence play. But Atlanta’s stronger pitching depth, defense, season run differential and plus-money run-line price outweigh the short-term offensive and head-to-head concerns.

Braves -1.5+105

CONF

62%

MLB6:40 PM

Mets @ Rays

The Trop hosts a first-place club riding four straight wins and a last-place visitor beginning a road trip after a 2-5 week. That is the scene, but the ticket rests on the matchup underneath it. Robert Stock owns a 7.40 ERA and 1.94 WHIP through 20.2 IP, and his latest start ended after 4.0 IP, 10 H and 7 ER. He has not completed five innings in four consecutive starts. Ian Seymour is not spotless—his home-start ERA is 5.58—but his broader foundation is firmer: a 4.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 107.0 IP, plus a 3.71 ERA with 24 K and 4 BB across his last three starts. The handedness splits reinforce the gap. Tampa Bay has hit .266 with a .757 OPS against right-handed pitching; New York has hit .234 with a .695 OPS against lefties. Behind them, the listed Rays bullpen carries a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 258.0 IP, compared with a 3.04 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 80.0 IP for the current Mets arms. The season-wide separation is substantial as well: Tampa Bay has a +54 run differential, while New York sits at -53. Seymour’s home results and Tampa Bay’s five-reliever workload in Sunday’s 11-inning game keep this from being a high-confidence play. Still, the combination of starting-pitcher stability, handedness performance and bullpen support is enough for me to lay the 1.5 at a plus price.

Rays -1.5+114

CONF

60%

MLB6:40 PM

Padres @ Reds

Great American Ball Park brings the heat and home-run volatility, but San Diego arrives with the more dependable run-prevention path. Michael King is the foundation of the bet. He carries a 3.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, has a 2.29 ERA across his last three starts, and has completed four consecutive quality starts. Brady Singer enters with a 4.72 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, including a 5.09 ERA over his last three. The matchup reinforces that advantage. Singer has allowed left-handed hitters a .303 average and .864 OPS with 19 home runs; San Diego starts four left-handed batters. King has shown almost no platoon gap, holding lefties to a .650 OPS and righties to a .651 OPS. San Diego also owns the better offensive split against right-handed pitching, .235/.706 compared with Cincinnati’s .224/.692. The late innings provide the other decisive separation. San Diego’s current bullpen owns a 2.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while Cincinnati’s is at 4.10 and 1.30. Over the last ten days, those ERAs are 2.10 and 7.22. San Diego has recent workload concerns among several relievers, but the full performance gap remains substantial. I’m using the moneyline because the handicap is built around San Diego’s superior path through nine innings, not an expectation of a particular winning margin.

Padres ML-144

CONF

62%

MLB6:45 PM

Mariners @ Red Sox

Fenway gets two clubs looking for a reset after lopsided Sunday losses. I’m setting the streaks aside; the starting-pitcher matchup, handedness splits and late-inning options point me to Boston. Payton Tolle owns a 3.09 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, including a 2.45 ERA across his last three starts. Seattle has hit .213 with a .634 OPS against left-handed pitching. On the other side, Boston has hit .246 with a .711 OPS against right-handers, while George Kirby carries a 5.19 road ERA. Tolle’s 3.64 home ERA is another meaningful edge over Kirby’s road results. Boston’s current bullpen arms have combined for a 2.60 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, compared with Seattle’s 3.91 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Boston’s recent relief results are a legitimate concern, but the season-long records of its primary high-leverage options give me more confidence if this reaches the late innings. Kirby’s latest outing—7.2 innings, one earned run, nine strikeouts and one walk—keeps me away from Boston -1.5. He demonstrated the version capable of keeping this close. I’m paying the moneyline price and asking Boston only to win.

Red Sox ML-154

CONF

63%

MLB6:45 PM

Marlins @ Nationals

The four-game set closes at Nationals Park with Washington holding the stronger offense, but Miami carrying the steadier pitching path through nine innings. Ryan Gusto enters with a 1.85 ERA over 24.1 August innings and has allowed two earned runs across his last 14.1 innings. Will Dion has been effective—3.67 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 34.1 innings—but this is his first start of the season, with a managed workload expected. That could bring Washington’s bullpen into the game early. Miami’s bullpen owns a 3.67 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, compared with Washington’s 4.37 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The recent separation is wider: Miami has a 3.55 bullpen ERA over the last ten days, while Washington is at 6.86. During this series, the Marlins have allowed five earned runs over 13 relief innings; the Nationals have allowed 11 over 11. Washington’s .754 OPS and 5.2 runs per game are better than Miami’s .722 OPS and 4.3 runs per game. That offensive advantage—and the uncertainty surrounding Miami’s first game with a changed lineup—keeps me away from the run line. At this price, I’m backing Miami to win behind the more established starter assignment and the better relief profile.

Marlins ML-114

CONF

58%

MLB7:40 PM

Tigers @ Twins

Monday night at Target Field brings two struggling division rivals and a narrow price. I’m backing Minnesota because its advantages are concentrated in the parts of this matchup I trust most. Taj Bradley offers the more established starting-pitcher baseline: a 3.97 ERA over 147.1 innings, including a 3.51 ERA at home. Jackson Jobe owns a similar 3.93 ERA, but it covers only 18.1 innings across four starts. His 1.42 WHIP and short outings leave considerably more of this game to Detroit’s relief corps. Minnesota also has the better offensive profile against right-handed pitching, batting .250 with a .738 OPS compared with Detroit’s .242 and .723. That matters against a Tigers offense producing only 1.6 runs per game over its last five and 2.2 over its last ten. The immediate bullpen situation strengthens the home side’s case. Minnesota used only Jeff Hoffman for 0.2 innings Sunday, while Detroit used Tyler Kinley, Tanner Rainey, Kyle Finnegan and Jacob Waguespack. Minnesota also leads the season series 7-2 and is 5-0 against Detroit at Target Field. Bradley’s 5.74 ERA over his last three starts and Detroit’s superior season-long pitching numbers keep this from being a high-confidence play. At this modest price, however, Minnesota’s more established starter, stronger right-handed-pitching split and cleaner relief setup are enough for the moneyline.

Twins ML-118

CONF

57%

MLB7:40 PM

Brewers @ Cubs

It’s 85°F at Wrigley with an 11 mph wind blowing toward center as the NL Central leaders open a four-game series. This is a tight matchup, so I’m backing Milwaukee to win without asking it to cover 1.5 runs. Chicago owns the more favorable starting-lineup matchup. The Cubs have a .267 AVG and .807 OPS against left-handed pitching, while Clay Holmes enters with a 0.47 ERA over his last three starts. Kyle Harrison provides enough recent form to keep that advantage from deciding the entire game, however: he has a 1.83 ERA in August and a 2.45 ERA across his last three starts. The separator is what happens after the starters leave. Milwaukee’s current bullpen owns a 2.92 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, compared with a 3.78 ERA and 1.25 WHIP for Chicago. The recent difference is wider: a 1.69 ERA for the Brewers’ bullpen over the last seven days against 6.62 for the Cubs. Milwaukee also gets Abner Uribe back with his 2.05 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Milwaukee’s 85-52 record and +177 run differential do not determine tonight, but they reinforce the bullpen advantage. Chicago is 77-60 with a +127 differential, so this remains a matchup between two winning teams rather than an invitation to lay a run line. Holmes and Chicago’s production against lefties are why I’m passing on Milwaukee -1.5 at +136. At Brewers ML -106, I only need the stronger full-game pitching operation to finish the job.

Brewers ML-106

CONF

57%

MLB8:05 PM

Athletics @ Rangers

Roof closed in Arlington, two starters carrying very different home-road stories, and both clubs arriving after their bullpens covered multiple innings Sunday. I’m taking the run with Oakland rather than asking the underdog to win outright. Gage Jump’s 4.69 season ERA is a concern, but his 3.49 ERA across seven road starts is the more relevant split tonight. He also enters after allowing two earned runs with nine strikeouts over 6.1 innings. Jacob deGrom’s 2.67 home ERA is the counterweight—and why this is not an Athletics moneyline play—but his recent volatility matters when laying 1.5 runs: a 7.71 ERA over his last three starts, including eight earned runs in 3.2 innings last time out. The late innings do not create a clear Texas advantage. The current bullpens have nearly identical season ERAs—4.24 for Oakland and 4.20 for Texas—while their last-10-day marks favor the Athletics, 3.13 to 5.18. Texas also needed six relief innings Sunday, and Jakob Junis worked on consecutive days. Oakland has produced a .720 OPS and 4.4 runs per game this season, compared with Texas at .713 and 4.0. Texas has the stronger overall pitching and defensive profile, but the combination of Jump’s road results, deGrom’s recent inconsistency and the bullpen comparison makes the extra run the right side of this ticket.

Athletics +1.5-120

CONF

58%

MLB8:10 PM

White Sox @ Astros

Two division leaders meet under a closed roof at Daikin Park, with Houston returning home and Chicago continuing its road trip. This is a competitive matchup, but the underdog owns the stronger overall body of work. Chicago is 72-64 with a plus-44 run differential; Houston is 69-68 with a minus-43 differential. The White Sox also average 4.8 runs per game with a 4.15 team ERA, compared with Houston’s 4.6 runs and 4.62 ERA. Those records do not determine tonight’s result, but they make Houston difficult to justify as the favorite. Peter Lambert has the better season ERA, 3.66 to Anthony Kay’s 4.09, but his August ERA is 6.12 and he has allowed 13 earned runs in 14.1 innings over his last three starts. Kay carries a 3.49 August ERA. Chicago also owns a .723 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Houston has produced a .709 OPS against lefties. The principal danger is Houston’s seven right-handed hitters facing Kay, who has allowed an .852 OPS to right-handed batters. That keeps this from being a high-confidence position. The counterweight is Houston’s modest aggregate production against lefties and Chicago’s recent bullpen advantage: a 1.61 ERA over the last five days versus 4.95 for Houston. Chicago’s stronger season profile, recent relief work and Lambert’s uneven August are enough to take the plus price. The White Sox +1.5 costs -192, so the better ticket is the moneyline and a bet on Chicago winning outright.

White Sox ML+118

CONF

56%

MLB8:40 PM

Orioles @ Rockies

Coors Field raises the volatility for both lineups, and neither starter comes without risk. The better ticket is Baltimore to win by any margin, leaning on the stronger full-game pitching profile rather than laying 1.5 runs. Tanner Gordon’s latest start was excellent, but his location split is difficult to overlook: a 9.33 ERA over 18.1 innings in four home starts, compared with a 1.59 ERA over 17.0 innings in three road starts. He has also allowed a .900 OPS to left-handed hitters and an .856 OPS to right-handed hitters. Baltimore’s confirmed lineup can challenge him from both sides, with Pete Alonso carrying a .901 OPS against right-handed pitching and a 1.050 OPS in August. Cade Povich presents genuine downside of his own. He has a 9.90 road ERA over 10.0 innings, only five starts this season and a 21-day gap since his last one. That uncertainty is why the Orioles run line asks too much. The separation comes behind the starters. Baltimore’s current bullpen owns a 3.79 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, compared with Colorado’s 4.56 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. The Orioles also have the stronger overall pitching baseline, with a 4.19 team ERA against Colorado’s 5.49. At a manageable -118, the moneyline captures Baltimore’s advantages while respecting Povich’s uncertainty and the one-run volatility of Coors.

Orioles ML-118

CONF

61%

MLB9:38 PM

Yankees @ Angels

Monday night in Anaheim pits the stronger full-game roster against the home club’s clearest advantage: Walbert Ureña. That makes this less about who owns the better starting-pitcher line and more about which team has more ways to finish the game. Ureña is the main obstacle. He carries a 2.94 ERA and a 2.54 ERA at Angel Stadium, while Elmer Rodríguez enters with a 4.70 ERA across five starts. But Ureña has walked nine batters over his last 14.2 innings, including five in 3.2 innings last time out. The Yankees average 3.63 walks per game and send seven left-handed hitters against a pitcher whose opponents have a .650 OPS from the left side, compared with .560 from the right. Rodríguez’s limited track record prevents me from calling the starting matchup comfortable, but his latest outing—six innings, three hits, three earned runs, six strikeouts and two walks—was enough to keep this from being an automatic fade. New York does not need him to outpitch Ureña deep into the night. The bullpen is where the Yankees separate. Their current relievers own a 2.63 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, compared with 3.79 and 1.35 for the Angels. Over the last five days, the Yankees’ bullpen has a 2.57 ERA while the Angels’ bullpen has an 8.10 ERA. New York also brings the stronger offensive baseline, averaging 4.5 runs with a .721 OPS against Los Angeles’ 4.1 runs and .680 OPS. Ureña’s home performance makes a close game too plausible for me to lay -1.5. Over the full nine innings, though, New York’s deeper offense and substantial relief-pitching advantage are enough for me to back the Yankees to win outright.

Yankees ML-120

CONF

60%

MLB9:40 PM

Phillies @ Diamondbacks

Chase Field is closed for a late-night series opener between two clubs fighting for October position. With the price close to even, I’m backing Philadelphia’s current pitching trajectory and the matchup presented by its left-handed lineup. Aaron Nola’s 5.03 season ERA remains a concern, but he has delivered 18.0 innings, four earned runs, 24 strikeouts and six walks over his last three starts. Brandon Pfaadt owns the better season ERA at 3.51, but his last two outings produced five earned runs against Boston and four against Chicago. His four-seam fastball also recorded a 9% whiff rate and .451 xwOBA in the latest start. Philadelphia starts seven left-handed hitters against Pfaadt, who has allowed lefties a .262 average, .760 OPS and 11 home runs, compared with a .205 average, .551 OPS and one homer against righties. The Phillies have a .244 average and .721 OPS against right-handed pitching; Arizona has a .231 average and .687 OPS in the same split. Arizona’s 3.08 bullpen ERA, Pfaadt’s 3.24 home ERA and Sunday off-day keep this from being a high-confidence play. Philadelphia’s bullpen has nevertheless posted a 2.45 ERA over the last ten days, while Nola’s recent run prevention gives the Phillies a viable route through the early innings. I want Philadelphia simply to win rather than asking for a two-run margin, so the moneyline is the ticket.

Phillies ML-108

CONF

56%

Player props

MLB · Giants @ Braves

Anthony Molina

Molina is opening a bullpen game, so he needs both enough length and enough swing-and-miss to reach three strikeouts. He has only three strikeouts across 9.1 major-league innings this season, with a 13.3% whiff rate on his four-seamer and 14.3% on his changeup. Atlanta's lineup also has several contact-oriented hitters near the top. Even if Molina works into a fourth inning, under 2.5 is the side I want.

UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts-124

MLB · Giants @ Braves

Jonah Cox

Cox has eight steals in only 58 at-bats, including three in a recent start. Bryce Elder has allowed 11 successful steals in 13 attempts this season, and Sean Murphy has yet to throw out a runner in four attempts. Cox still has to reach base, but his speed and this pitcher-catcher matchup make +320 too large for a player willing to run aggressively.

OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases+320

MLB · Padres @ Reds

Brady Singer

Singer has allowed at least three earned runs in six consecutive starts and seven of his last eight. The matchup offers no relief: left-handed hitters own a .303 average and .864 OPS against him, and San Diego starts four lefties. His contact-heavy sinker is especially vulnerable in the heat at Great American Ball Park.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-143

MLB · Padres @ Reds

Michael King

King has completed six innings in five of his last six starts and cleared this number in six of his last eight. He enters with a 2.29 ERA across his last three, no meaningful platoon weakness and four consecutive quality starts. Cincinnati’s elevated strikeout rate gives him a path to efficient innings even in a dangerous park.

OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs-125

MLB · Mets @ Rays

Robert Stock

Stock has recorded fewer than 15 outs in four consecutive starts, needing at least 80 pitches each time despite never completing the fifth. Tampa Bay’s contact-heavy lineup is particularly troublesome because Stock’s cutter, sinker and sweeper have all been hit hard. With five left-handed bats facing a pitcher who has allowed an .845 OPS to lefties, I expect traffic and another early call to the bullpen. Getting plus money on the under is the best part.

UNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs+102

MLB · Mets @ Rays

Junior Caminero

Caminero has cleared this number in 13 of his last 15 games and has recorded a hit in 14 of those 15. He enters with home runs in consecutive games and bats behind Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda, two hitters carrying on-base percentages above .360. Stock has allowed right-handed hitters a .333 average and .877 OPS, giving Caminero multiple paths to two combined hits, runs and RBIs.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-135

MLB · Mariners @ Red Sox

Payton Tolle

Tolle has cleared this number in six of his last eight starts and owns 141 strikeouts in 125.1 innings. His four-seamer generates a 29.1% whiff rate, while his curveball is at 41.2%. That combination is built to exploit a Seattle lineup averaging 8.71 strikeouts per game and hitting just .213 with a .634 OPS against left-handed pitching. With six Mariners in tonight's order already above 90 strikeouts, I make seven the likelier side of this number.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts-113

MLB · Mariners @ Red Sox

George Kirby

Kirby has allowed at least six hits in five of his last eight starts, including six during last week's excellent 7.2-inning outing. Both sides of the plate have found consistent contact against him: lefties are hitting .278 and righties .286. His recent road starts produced seven, eight and nine hits allowed, matching the larger warning in his 5.19 road ERA. Boston hits .246 against right-handers, and Fenway's dimensions give that contact additional ways to become hits even when the ball stays in the park.

OVER 5.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed-140

MLB · Marlins @ Nationals

Will Dion

Dion has worked exclusively in relief this season, averaging 30 pitches with a high of 64. Now he is being stretched into his first start under a managed workload. Recording 12 outs requires him to complete four innings, and I do not think his expected pitch ceiling leaves enough margin for that at plus money.

UNDER 11.5 Pitcher Outs+106

MLB · Marlins @ Nationals

Heriberto Hernandez

Hernandez owns an .886 OPS with 10 home runs in 117 at-bats against left-handed pitching. He has exceeded this number in nine of his last 15 games, has homered twice in this series and leads off against a starter unlikely to work deep. That should give him five-plate-appearance upside against a Washington staff that has allowed 24 earned runs over its last five games.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+110

MLB HR · Marlins @ Nationals

Andres Chaparro

Chaparro has four home runs in 45 at-bats against right-handers while producing a 1.131 OPS in that split. He also has three homers in his last 32 at-bats and is positioned third in the order. Gusto has pitched well recently, but his 43.9% hard-hit rate leaves enough home-run exposure for Chaparro to be worth a shot at 6-to-1.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Tigers @ Twins

Brooks Lee

This number is too long for Lee’s power profile. He has 22 homers this season, with 19 against right-handed pitching, and has gone deep five times in his last 15 games.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+850

MLB · Tigers @ Twins

Taj Bradley

Bradley has 169 strikeouts in 147.1 innings, an average of 6.5 per start, and he has cleared this number in five of his last eight outings. His most recent start produced 11 strikeouts, with his whiff rate reaching 40%.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-113

MLB · Tigers @ Twins

Dillon Dingler

Dingler has exceeded 1.5 combined hits, runs and RBIs only once in his last 15 games. He is batting .159 with a .411 OPS over that stretch and has not homered, while Detroit has scored just 1.6 runs per game over its last five and 2.2 over its last ten.

UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI+100

MLB · Brewers @ Cubs

Kyle Harrison

Harrison has recorded more than 15 outs in only one of his last eight starts. Since returning to the rotation, he has finished at exactly five innings or earlier in all four outings.

UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-140

MLB · Brewers @ Cubs

Clay Holmes

Holmes has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 13 starts this season, including one total earned run across 19 innings in his last three. He has also produced a 0.75 ERA over his first two starts at Wrigley.

UNDER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-110

MLB · Athletics @ Rangers

Jacob deGrom

I’m playing deGrom’s recent workload at plus money. He has completed six innings just once in his last eight starts, with five of his last six ending before the sixth was finished. Oakland has several hitters near the top of the order taking competitive at-bats, which can elevate his pitch count even without producing many runs. DeGrom can pitch well and still cash this Under; asking him for a full six innings is too much at this price.

UNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs+105

MLB · Athletics @ Rangers

Henry Bolte

Bolte’s leadoff assignment gives him the plate-appearance volume I want at essentially even money. He has recorded a single in 10 of his last 15 games and is batting .321 in August. DeGrom has allowed a .261 average to right-handed hitters, and Bolte’s modest power profile makes the single more attractive than paying -170 for any hit. The slider is the obvious obstacle, but the price does not properly reflect Bolte’s recent contact or lineup position.

OVER 0.5 Singles-104

MLB HR · Athletics @ Rangers

Jake Burger

Burger’s power against left-handed pitching makes +413 worth taking. He has nine home runs in 118 at-bats against lefties this season, carries an .881 OPS in that split and has homered in four of his last 15 games.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+413

MLB · White Sox @ Astros

Anthony Kay

Kay has allowed at least five hits in seven of his last eight starts. Houston is sending seven right-handed hitters against him, and righties have batted .283 with 16 home runs in 364 at-bats against Kay this season. Five hits is a modest threshold for a starter with a 4.89 road ERA facing a deliberately right-loaded lineup.

OVER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed-141

MLB · White Sox @ Astros

Miguel Vargas

Vargas has drawn a walk in 13 of his last 15 games and has 84 this season. Lambert has issued seven walks across his last three starts, and Vargas should receive at least four plate appearances from the third spot. The combination of elite patience, lineup position and plus money makes this worth taking.

OVER 0.5 Walks+120

MLB · Orioles @ Rockies

Tanner Gordon

I’m fading Gordon’s seven-inning gem in Washington now that he is back at Coors. He has allowed 19 earned runs over 18.1 innings in four home starts, surrendering at least four in every one of them. Baltimore arrives averaging 5.3 runs across its last 10 games and can send five left-handed bats at a pitcher who has allowed a .900 OPS to lefties. Four earned runs is a fair target, and getting plus money makes the over worth taking.

OVER 3.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+104

MLB · Orioles @ Rockies

Blaze Alexander

Alexander has recorded a single in 11 of his last 15 games and in both starts since returning from the injured list. He owns a .331 average and .873 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Gordon has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .319. Gordon has also surrendered high batting averages on his four-seamer, slider and sinker. With Coors’ spacious outfield creating room for balls to fall, one single is a reasonable ask even from the seventh spot.

OVER 0.5 Singles-140

MLB · Yankees @ Angels

Walbert Urena

Ureña has issued 64 walks in 116.1 innings, including nine across his last 14.2. He walked five in only 3.2 innings last time out.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Walks+133

MLB · Yankees @ Angels

Elmer Rodriguez

Rodríguez has recorded 16 outs in only one of his five major-league starts. His first four outings ended after 4.0, 4.2, 4.1 and 4.0 innings, and he is making just his sixth start on four days' rest after completing a career-best six innings against Houston. His 13 walks in 23 innings create too many opportunities for an early pitch-count exit, even against this struggling Angels offense. With New York's bullpen carrying a 2.63 ERA, the Yankees have no reason to stretch their rookie to reach the sixth.

UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-168

MLB · Phillies @ Diamondbacks

Aaron Nola

I’m buying Nola’s current form at a favorable number. He has recorded at least five strikeouts in five of his last six starts, including 24 over 18 innings in his last three. His knuckle curve owns a 44.1% whiff rate and gives him a put-away pitch against an Arizona lineup with strikeout opportunities around Carroll, Tawa and Waldschmidt. At plus money, I only need five before Philadelphia turns it over to the bullpen.

OVER 4.5 Strikeouts+103

MLB · Phillies @ Diamondbacks

Bryce Harper

Harper enters batting .362 with a 1.057 OPS over his last 15 games and has exceeded this number eight times during that stretch. The platoon matchup is the separator: Harper owns a .300 average and 1.031 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Pfaadt has allowed lefties a .262 average, .760 OPS and 11 home runs. Batting third should give Harper at least four chances, and one extra-base hit or two singles gets this home at a strong plus price.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+128

Hub research

146

platoon_edgeSF @ ATL
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Bryce Elder (RHP), batting 1st
Gilbert leads off against a right-hander, so Elder has to deal with the best version of him from the first pitch, and the top of the order means that edge gets recycled more than anyone else's tonight. San Francisco didn't have to engineer this matchup — the card just handed it to them.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
head_to_headMIA @ WSH
Marlins are 12-5 vs Nationals this season
Seventeen meetings is basically a full season, and 12-5 says Miami's had Washington's number all year, not just this week. Last time out was 6-2, right in line with the pattern. I like the Marlins to keep that going on the road tonight.
starter_team_recordPHI @ ARI
Diamondbacks 7-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts
Arizona's riding three straight wins on his turn, which means the lineup's getting out early and the bullpen's closing the door behind him. Philadelphia can punish a mistake, but the Diamondbacks have handled their business behind this arm all year.
starter_team_recordSEA @ BOS
Red Sox 7-1 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts
Boston's 7-1 when Tolle starts because the whole club plays different behind him — aggressive early, bullpen never scrambling. Seattle has to be the team that breaks that pattern, and nothing about tonight tells me they're it.
head_to_headDET @ MIN
Twins are 7-2 vs Tigers this season
7-2 over nine games already says Minnesota's had the better roster in this series, but that 11-0 finish last time out is the number that jumps off the page. That's the freshest form on the board and I'm siding with the Twins again.
streakingDET @ MIN
DET games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Detroit's putting up 4.3 runs a night against totals that have been set way higher, so this under run has real room behind it. Tonight's number climbs to 9 — even more cushion for the under to work with.
P final total 12 vs 9
streakingSF @ ATL
ATL have won 7 straight
Atlanta's plus-9 over these seven wins works out to barely a run a game, so these have been close finishes landing their way, not blowouts. I don't see San Francisco being the team that flips one back.
P team lost 7-3
streakingNYY @ LAA
LAA have lost 7 straight
The Angels are losing these by about two runs a night, competitive but unable to close — and 2-8 over the last ten says that's just where this team is right now. The Yankees are a tougher out than what already made it seven straight.
P team won 1-10
platoon_edgeMIL @ CHC
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Turang leading off against a righty puts his best split in the spot that sees the most pitches over nine innings. Holmes throwing right-handed means the top of the order is getting the strong version of him all night.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkSEA @ BOS
Mickey Gasper: 1.710 OPS in Last 15 Days
Twenty-six plate appearances is the thinnest sample of the night, so 1.710 is more heat-check than new normal — but it's sitting on top of an .840 season line, meaning there was already a good hitter here before the streak started. 1.5 total bases tonight, two hits or one that goes for extra bases, is exactly the kind of line this version of him has been clearing.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkSEA @ BOS
Cal Raleigh: 1.244 OPS in Last 15 Days
That sub-.650 season line always looked miscast, and this two-week surge is the real bat showing up. Thirty-eight plate appearances is enough to trust it — a half a total base tonight is nothing for a swing this hot.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
ballpark_shiftBAL @ COL
Tanner Gordon owns a 7.89 ERA at Coors Field — 2.68 everywhere else
Coors turns fringy stuff into loud contact for everybody, and Gordon's .332 against up there is real damage, not bad bounces. I want Baltimore's lineup in this spot, not his arm.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
starter_team_recordCHW @ HOU
White Sox 6-2 in Anthony Kay's last 8 starts
Chicago's handing Kay leads instead of scratching to survive his starts, and six wins in his last eight backs that up. I like them to run that same formula back on the road in Houston.
starter_team_recordBAL @ COL
Rockies 2-6 in Tanner Gordon's last 8 starts
Colorado's bats and glove have gone quiet behind Gordon often enough now that it looks like the pattern, not the exception. Baltimore's catching a home team that hasn't had his back lately.
starter_team_recordSF @ ATL
Braves 6-2 in Bryce Elder's last 8 starts
Atlanta's getting length from Elder, which means a rested pen and a lineup that isn't pressing — that's a team playing loose on his turns. San Francisco's stepping into a comfortable home side tonight, not a stressed one.
platoon_edgeMIA @ WSH
Andres Chaparro (bats R) draws Ryan Gusto (RHP), batting 3rd
Chaparro runs backwards from the usual platoon logic — sharper against right-handers than lefties — which flips the read on tonight's matchup. Batting third puts that quirk in the highest-leverage spot near the top of the order, and Gusto doesn't get the same-side cover a right-hander normally expects here.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
platoon_edgePHI @ ARI
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Batting third against a righty drops Harper into the first real RBI spot with his strongest split working. Whoever's on ahead of him tonight is getting driven in by the Harper that eats right-handers alive.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
heat_checkCHW @ HOU
Tristan Peters: 1.235 OPS in Last 15 Days
He was already hitting .811 on the year, so climbing past 1.000 over 44 plate appearances is a good hitter compounding, not a soft-schedule mirage. Half a total base is an easy lean with twelve homers already banked.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
cooling_offMIA @ WSH
CJ Abrams: .377 OPS in Last 15 Days
That's too deep a sample to wave off as tough luck — Abrams' swing looks genuinely out of sync right now. I'm not betting on a sudden fix from him tonight.
platoon_edgeNYM @ TB
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 4th against Robert Stock (RHP)
Cleanup is exactly where you want a lefty bat who splits this hard by handedness, and Hicks is at his sharpest right when the starter is a right-hander. Stock doesn't have a same-side escape valve built into tonight's lineup card.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
starter_formCHW @ HOU
Peter Lambert: 8.16 ERA over his last 3 starts
The WHIP jump is the tell — he's just putting more guys on, which is a command issue, not misfortune. That's a bad mix walking into Houston, where free runners turn into crooked innings fast.
P 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
cooling_offNYM @ TB
A.J. Ewing: .305 OPS in Last 15 Days
He wasn't much of a bat before this slide, and dropping even further says the contact quality has actually worsened. No reason to expect that flips just because Tampa's on the schedule.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
platoon_edgeOAK @ TEX
Justin Foscue (bats R) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
Foscue's platoon gap is about as wide as they get, and drawing a lefty tonight means the six-hole is carrying real thump instead of just filling out the bottom of the order. This is a lower slot playing like a middle-of-the-order threat purely because the handedness lines up.
P 1-for-2, 4 TB
heat_checkPHI @ ARI
Alec Bohm: 1.047 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jumping from a .687 season line to over 1.000 the last two weeks, on 47 plate appearances, is a real form change. The 1.5 total bases ask is the steepest in this group, but he's earned the benefit of the doubt right now.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offSEA @ BOS
Julio Rodriguez: .405 OPS in Last 15 Days
Even his normal level wasn't peak form this year, and sliding further below that over this much of a sample says the timing's broken, not the luck. I'm not chasing him in Boston tonight.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
platoon_edgeSF @ ATL
Osleivis Basabe (bats R) hits 6th against Bryce Elder (RHP)
Basabe runs the opposite of the typical platoon pattern — more comfortable against right-handers than lefties — so Elder isn't the tough draw he'd be for most hitters in this spot. Sixth isn't glamorous, but it's the job of keeping the line moving after the top of the order's already had its cuts.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
platoon_edgeMIA @ WSH
Agustin Ramirez (bats R) hits 3rd against Will Dion (LHP)
Ramirez follows the standard right-handed pattern too, doing his best work against lefties, and hitting third means that strength shows up early instead of waiting to cycle through the middle innings. Dion has to get through the top of the order built for exactly this matchup before he ever settles in.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
platoon_edgeNYM @ TB
Mark Vientos (bats R) hits 4th against Ian Seymour (LHP)
Vientos is the textbook right-handed case, he comes alive against left-handed pitching, and cleanup is exactly where that version of him needs to be plugged in tonight. Seymour is running straight into the setup built to punish him specifically.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
cooling_offDET @ MIN
Dillon Dingler: .411 OPS in Last 15 Days
That's a deep enough sample below his own level to call it a real slump. Nothing in this stretch says the timing fixes itself tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offSEA @ BOS
Cole Young: .354 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Payton Tolle
Lefties have been a real, standing issue for Young over a decent sample, not a two-week wrinkle — Tolle tonight lines up right with it. Layer the cold stretch on top and this is tougher than his season line lets on.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkOAK @ TEX
Lawrence Butler: 1.042 OPS in Last 15 Days
Off a .700 season floor, this kind of jump across 48 plate appearances isn't a soft-schedule fluke — the power's been real all year and it's all clicking at once. Half a total base undersells where this bat is.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
cooling_offCHW @ HOU
Chase Meidroth: .467 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Peter Lambert
He's got real history struggling against right-handers, and that's exactly the look he draws again tonight. An established weakness meeting a cold stretch is two negatives stacking, not canceling out, so I'm leaning down here rather than banking a bounce-back.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
head_to_headSF @ ATL
Giants are 4-1 vs Braves this season
Five games is thin to hang a record on, and none of them were routs — 3-2 last time keeps with a series decided by a run or two all year. San Francisco's just been landing on the right side of the close ones.
cooling_offCHW @ HOU
Christian Walker: .397 OPS in Last 15 Days
The size of that gap, over that many trips to the plate, says the timing's slipped rather than the results just lagging behind good contact. Pitch him like a hitter still searching, not one due.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offDET @ MIN
Royce Lewis: .424 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jackson Jobe
He's got enough history against right-handers that this reads as a real, established weakness, not noise, and that's the look he draws again tonight. Layer a cold couple of weeks on top and nothing about this matchup favors him.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offOAK @ TEX
Zack Gelof: .482 OPS in Last 15 Days
Real enough sample, but the dip is moderate, not a collapse — more of a quiet lull than anything alarming. He's live to snap out of it on any given pitch tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
cooling_offCHW @ HOU
Munetaka Murakami: .531 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Peter Lambert
This is the one spot on the board that actually favors the cold bat. Murakami's numbers against righties over a big sample run well above his season line — that's usually about where a slump snaps.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 3 BB
cooling_offMIL @ CHC
Gary Sanchez: .157 OPS in Last 15 Days
That sample's thin enough that this reads like a cold two weeks, not a broken swing. His season level says there's a bounce-back in him.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
cooling_offBAL @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .529 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Cade Povich
He's shown all season he can really hit, so a rough couple of weeks doesn't say much about his true level on its own. The issue is the pitcher works his softer side, and even on a small sample that split's trended well below his overall production — I'd expect the cold stretch to carry into tonight rather than break.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offNYM @ TB
Francisco Alvarez: .281 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Ian Seymour
The slump itself is barely two weeks of at-bats, which would normally argue for regression back to his real level. But it's paired with his tougher platoon side, so tonight doesn't offer the kind of matchup that makes that case easy to trust — I'd treat this as a fade, not a rebound spot.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
heat_checkMIL @ CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.210 OPS in Last 15 Days
He was already hitting like one of the better bats around at .944, and climbing even higher over 56 plate appearances is a great year getting greater. 1.5 total bases is a normal night for most, but he's been blowing past it.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
heat_checkNYY @ LAA
Zach Neto: 1.036 OPS in Last 15 Days
Neto's bump is modest and believable, only .286 over his season mark off a real sample — nothing like the wild spikes elsewhere tonight. With 23 homers of pop behind it, 1.5 total bases is very gettable.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
regression_tomorrowBAL @ COL
Gabriel Hughes: 6.61 ERA vs 3.61 xERA
Sub-5% barrels and hard-hit under 29% are clean, starter-quality numbers — the ERA is way out of line with the actual contact he's allowing. I expect a cleaner line out of him against Baltimore than that season number suggests.
closer_watchBAL @ COL
Ryan Helsley / Andrew Kittredge
Helsley's technically the 1A here but Kittredge is breathing down his neck at 7 saves and 9 holds — that's a real committee by the numbers, not just a label. Good news: Helsley hasn't pitched in three days, so he's fresh, and Baltimore's -138 on the road gives him a live shot at work tonight. Start him if he's on your roster — rested arm, favored team, first crack at the job. Just don't treat this as a locked-in role; keep Kittredge on your radar all week.
closer_watchBAL @ COL
Andrew Kittredge / Ryan Helsley
Baltimore's -138 on the road at Colorado says there should be a lead to protect, but the ninth is a true coin flip — Kittredge and Helsley are knotted at 8 saves apiece and this pen's flagged as a committee. The role's combined for just two outings across the team's last three games, and both arms check in fully rested for tonight. Live save spot, no clear name attached to it. Roster both if you've got bench space; if you can only carry one, understand you're guessing blind on a true 50/50.
cooling_offOAK @ TEX
Joc Pederson: .318 OPS in Last 15 Days
Sample's thin enough here that this reads as noise more than signal. Same matchup as Gelof tonight, and he's a bat that can flip from cold to dangerous in one at-bat.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsTigers @ Twins
Brooks Lee
Gary's Take This number is too long for Lee’s power profile. He has 22 homers this season, with 19 against right-handed pitching, and has gone deep five times in his last 15 games.
P 0 HR — 1-for-5, 1 TB
cooling_offMIA @ WSH
Nasim Nunez: .247 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Gusto
Nunez was already the lightest bat in this group, so this slump is a light hitter getting lighter, not a fall from a strong level. Gusto isn't adding extra danger — this is just what the bat generally looks like.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
streakingSEA @ BOS
SEA have lost 4 straight
Twenty-one runs allowed over four games is getting overwhelmed nightly, not losing close. Still just a sudden dip with a fine 4-6 last-ten behind it, but Boston at home is plenty capable of stretching it to five.
P team lost 8-9
regression_watchNYM @ TB
Robert Stock: 7.4 ERA vs 4.9 xERA
Even his own expected number is bad — a 1.94 WHIP and 9% barrels mean hitters are squaring him up for real, and the actual average against is worse than that. Nothing here I want to touch against Tampa Bay tonight.
P 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
streakingSD @ CIN
CIN games have gone OVER 4 straight
Cincinnati's averaging near 18 a game against totals set around 8.4 — that offense has been doubling the number, not sneaking over it. Tonight's total drops to 5.5, the easiest bar the streak's had to clear yet.
P final total 5 vs 5.5
streakingNYM @ TB
TB have won 4 straight
Plus-10 over four games works out to two and a half runs a night — Tampa's been putting these away, not sneaking through them. But 6-4 over the last ten says this is a hot pocket, and the Mets are the first real test of whether it holds.
P team lost 3-2
heat_checkBAL @ COL
Connor Norby: .999 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jumping from a .693 season mark to near 1.000 over 46 plate appearances is enough volume to trust — that's a guy stringing together genuinely better at-bats. Half a total base is a light ask for this kind of form.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsAthletics @ Rangers
Jake Burger
Gary's Take Burger’s power against left-handed pitching makes +413 worth taking. He has nine home runs in 118 at-bats against lefties this season, carries an .881 OPS in that split and has homered in four of his last 15 games.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 3 TB
two_start_weekBoston Red Sox — week of 8/31
Payton Tolle
Tolle owns the best number on this whole board, 2.69 xERA, and the tier says plan around him no matter who's in the other dugout. He's home tonight against the Mariners, then turns around for a Saturday date at the Orioles — a clean two-start week. Must-start both. If tonight's game hasn't locked yet, get him in now — this is your anchor arm for the week.
heat_checkBAL @ COL
Pete Alonso: 1.090 OPS in Last 15 Days
An .863 season line was already elite, and climbing higher over 56 plate appearances is a great hitter getting hotter, not a soft-schedule thing. 1.5 total bases is right around his normal pace and he's running well ahead of it.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeDET @ MIN
Dillon Dingler (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Dingler's a same-hand riser, sharper against right-handers than lefties, so tonight's starter isn't the tough assignment the four-hole usually represents against that hand. That's the best version of him landing in the exact spot built to do damage.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkMIL @ CHC
William Contreras: 1.008 OPS in Last 15 Days
A solid, unspectacular uptick for Contreras — not a wild spike, and that tends to hold up better than the extreme ones. With 13 homers already banked, 1.5 total bases is very reachable.
P 1-for-2, 2 TB, 1 BB
two_start_weekPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/31
Jesús Luzardo
Second-best xERA in the group at 2.87, another PLAN_AROUND arm. He opens Tuesday on the road at the Diamondbacks, then comes home to close the week Sunday against the Braves — a full slate of lead time before he locks. Start him both times, no second-guessing.
regression_tomorrowMIA @ KC
Randy Dobnak: 1.92 ERA vs 4.55 xERA
A two-and-a-half-run gap between ERA and xERA is a lot, and hard-hit contact near 40% says hitters are squaring him up more than the results show. Miami's a live spot for some of that cushion to disappear.
cut_listNYM tonight
Christopher Morel
A .435 OPS and .165 average isn't a slump, it's replacement level with extra strikeouts mixed in. Batting 6th tonight doesn't change the math — a lineup spot isn't buying him more rope in a season-long format at this point. Cut, no debate.
gary_hr_threatsMarlins @ Nationals
Andres Chaparro
Gary's Take Chaparro has four home runs in 45 at-bats against right-handers while producing a 1.131 OPS in that split. He also has three homers in his last 32 at-bats and is positioned third in the order.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
starter_formPHI @ ARI
Aaron Nola: 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Twenty-four strikeouts in eighteen innings is real swing-and-miss, not weak contact finding gloves. This looks like the version of him that's actually turned a corner walking into Arizona.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
head_to_headOAK @ TEX
Athletics are 7-5 vs Rangers this season
Twelve meetings and a near-even record says this is a genuinely competitive series, not one club owning the other. Oakland's freshest form is a win last time out, and that's enough to lean their way tonight.
next_slateNCAAF
Next college slate · SEP 3
BDL lists 4 verified FBS-vs-FBS games on the next college slate. All 4 kickoff times are confirmed.
bullpen_fatigueCHW @ HOU
Chicago White Sox pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago's best short arms are either freshly used or already touched twice in this stretch — there's not much rest left in that pen. If their starter doesn't give length tonight, Houston starts seeing arms this staff would rather keep hidden.
heat_checkSF @ ATL
Rafael Devers: 1.015 OPS in Last 15 Days
Fifty-nine plate appearances is the deepest sample in this whole group, and he was already performing like an above-average bat before this stretch started. 1.5 total bases is well within reach given the rhythm he's in.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
next_slateNFL
Next NFL slate · SEP 9
BDL lists 1 NFL game on the next slate. Its kickoff time is confirmed.
two_start_weekPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/31
Paul Skenes
Skenes gets the cleanest schedule on the board — both starts at home, Tuesday against the Giants and again Sunday against the Angels — carrying a 3.12 xERA into a PLAN_AROUND tier. Start both. Two home starts from this arm is as safe as this format gets.
starter_formSEA @ BOS
George Kirby: 6.89 ERA over his last 3 starts
Twenty-three hits allowed in this stretch is hitters squaring him up consistently, not a couple of bad breaks. Nothing here says Boston's the game that fixes it.
P 5 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
two_start_weekNew York Yankees — week of 8/31
Gerrit Cole
Cole's two starts both come away from home — Tuesday at the Angels, Sunday at the Padres — with a 3.26 xERA keeping him in PLAN_AROUND territory. Start both. A full two-start week from him is worth the roster spot regardless of venue.
two_start_weekMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/31
Kyle Harrison
Harrison draws two true road starts this week, tonight at the Cubs and then Saturday at the Reds, but his 3.24 xERA still earns him the PLAN_AROUND label. Start both. The tier's telling you to trust the arm over the itinerary.
two_start_weekWashington Nationals — week of 8/31
Will Dion
Dion's tier says plan around him at 3.14 xERA, and he's on the mound tonight at home against the Marlins before a Saturday trip to face the Dodgers. Start both — set your lineup before tonight's game if it isn't locked already.
starter_formMIA @ WSH
Ryan Gusto: 1.26 ERA over his last 3 starts
His WHIP sits right at the season mark while the runs allowed nearly vanished — that's genuinely limiting damage, not luck stranding runners. This reads as a real level-up walking into Washington.
P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
regression_watchNYY @ LAA
Elmer Rodriguez: 2.5 ERA vs 4.43 xERA
A 1.52 WHIP next to a 2.5 ERA tells the real story — he's surviving traffic more than missing bats, with strikeouts light and hard contact climbing. One bad inning against the Angels changes this number fast.
P 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
cut_listDET tonight
Jackson Jobe
Jobe's showing a 3.93 ERA but the process behind it says 5.67 — a run and three-quarters of separation between what's hit the scoreboard and what should have. Gaps that size don't hold, they close, and they rarely close in the pitcher's favor. He's back on the mound tonight still wearing the good number, but you're rostering the 5.67 whether you like it or not. Cut him before the ERA catches up to the process.
cut_listSF tonight
Anthony Molina
This is the harder cut to make because the ERA is gorgeous — 2.89 — and gorgeous ERAs make owners stubborn. But a 5.45 xERA underneath it is the widest crack on this list, north of two and a half runs of daylight. He starts tonight still looking like an ace on the stat page, and that's exactly the window to move him before everyone else notices. Cut — sell the shiny ERA while it still has takers.
regression_watchMIL @ CHC
Clay Holmes: 2.26 ERA vs 3.96 xERA
A 42% hard-hit rate paired with a 2.26 ERA is a wide gap, and a 55-point spread between actual and expected average says some of that cushion gives back. I'd expect Milwaukee to find a few more hits than he's allowed lately.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
regression_watchNYM @ TB
Chandler Simpson: .309 AVG vs .257 xBA
That gap isn't a two-week heater, it's held steady across a full season's worth of at-bats, with the average and the overall production running hot by almost the same amount the whole way. When both move together that long, it's a real hit-tool edge, not luck that's due to run out — lean into the hit and total-bases numbers tonight.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
regression_watchDET @ MIN
Jackson Jobe: 3.93 ERA vs 5.67 xERA
The average against is basically where it should be, but hard-hit over 40% and barrels above 9% say the underlying contact is a real concern. Minnesota's exactly the lineup that tests whether his timing luck holds.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
two_start_weekLos Angeles Angels — week of 8/31
Walbert Ureña
Ureña carries the highest xERA on this list, 3.43, and is one of two arms that drop to STREAM_BOTH. He's home tonight against the Yankees, then travels Saturday to face the Pirates. Streamer only. Play the matchup, not the name, and stay ready to pivot off him if a better two-start option opens up.
two_start_weekDetroit Tigers — week of 8/31
Troy Melton
Melton sits right behind Ureña at 3.41 xERA, also tagged STREAM_BOTH. Both starts are on the road this week — Tuesday at the Twins, Sunday at the Guardians. Streaming play both. Treat as matchup-dependent, not a lock-in.
regression_tomorrowPHI @ ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.5 ERA vs 4.43 xERA
Barrels allowed sit at a manageable 7.8%, but a 33.9% hard-hit rate says hitters are getting the bat head to the ball more than the results let on. The 27-point gap between what opponents are hitting and what they're projected to hit is squarely batted-ball luck, and that tends to shrink — tomorrow's matchup with Philadelphia is a fair spot to see some of it close.
bullpen_fatigueCHW @ HOU
Houston Astros pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houston's leaned on Hader and Abreu twice each in this stretch, and that well doesn't refill overnight. Push this one deep and they're either running those two back on short rest or turning to arms that haven't been tested like this.
park_weatherMIL @ CHC
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Wrigley Field tonight
Wind blowing straight out at Wrigley is about as strong a carry signal as you get — balls that die on a normal night keep going tonight. That cuts both ways for both lineups, and the total sitting at 9.5 already respects it.
P final total 20 vs 9.5 (over lean)
starter_formBAL @ COL
Tanner Gordon: 3.31 ERA over his last 3 starts
Six earned runs with double-digit strikeouts over three starts is legitimate progress. Problem is he's walking right back into Coors, and that building has undone better recent form than this.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
return_watchBOS — return listed 8/31
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Forearm had him on the 60-day, and the roster now lists today as the return — that's a listing, not him actually trotting out to second base. Even at full health he was running a .705 OPS. Not a stash. Streaming filler in deep formats only — the bat was never the reason to roster him.
cut_listLAA tonight
Christian Moore
A .505 OPS technically clears the guy above him, but by a margin that means nothing from the 6-hole. A .167 average is still replacement-level offense with a little more loft mixed in. Tonight's lineup spot buys him one more game to show it's turning, not a reason to keep burning a bench slot on a hope. Cut. Marginally less bad still isn't good.
fantasy_pickupsDET @ MIN
Ryan Jeffers
An .838 OPS from the cleanup spot is already a strong line for a catcher, a position where standards are low. Tonight Jeffers gets Jackson Jobe, who's been getting hammered to a 5.67 xERA. Scarce position plus a struggling arm on the mound — that's as clean a streaming case as you'll find. Add in every league where you're staring at a hole at catcher. No debate here.
regression_tomorrowSD @ CIN
Randy Vásquez: 4.02 ERA vs 5.67 xERA
Hard-hit near 44% and barrels over 10% are legitimately alarming numbers hiding behind a decent-looking ERA. Cincinnati's a real threat to be the game where the results finally catch up to the contact.
starter_formSF @ ATL
Bryce Elder: 5.82 ERA over his last 3 starts
Twenty-two hits allowed across three starts is hitters finding barrels start after start, not one bad night skewing things. Nothing points to a fix happening at home against Atlanta tonight.
P 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
ballpark_shiftSD @ CIN
Brady Singer owns a 3.82 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 5.67 everywhere else
Great American plays small, so if anything the park should be working against him — instead he's been sharper at home, which says something about him, not the ballpark. San Diego's catching the tougher version of Singer tonight.
P 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
park_weatherNYY @ LAA
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Angel Stadium tonight
Ten miles an hour out to center at Angel Stadium turns warning-track fly balls into homers, and with the total parked at just 8, there's plenty of room for it to climb. I'm leaning Over if that wind holds into the night.
P final total 11 vs 8 (over lean)
regression_tomorrowDET @ MIN
Troy Melton: 1.86 ERA vs 3.41 xERA
Hard contact's up in the high 30s but the barrel rate's under 6% — hitters are making contact without doing real damage. This looks like a more sustainable line against Minnesota than the xERA gap suggests.
return_watchARI — return listed 9/1
Ryne Nelson
Elbow guys on a 60-day tag don't just flip a switch because the sheet says tomorrow — treat that as a target, not a lock. He was sitting on a 4.97 ERA before the elbow shut him down. Cut him loose. Bad ERA plus an elbow flag is the one combo I won't burn a roster spot chasing.
return_watchTOR — return listed 9/1
Joe Mantiply
Knee, not the throwing arm — that's the encouraging part of this 60-day stint. And a 2.04 ERA on the books before he went down says there was real substance there. Worth a speculative add in holds and deeper mixed leagues. I want to see what role he lands in before trusting him anywhere shallow.
return_watchTB — return listed 9/1
Jake Fraley
Groin's had him shelved, tomorrow's the listed target on the 60-day — but a .690 OPS was the story even when he was healthy and playing. Pass. Outfield stash spots are too valuable to spend on a sub-.700 bat, hurt or not.
regression_watchSD @ CIN
Ty France: .287 AVG vs .249 xBA
France's average is running hot, but the power number's drifted the same amount over 400-plus plate appearances — that's not luck, that's just who he is this year. I like the hits to keep coming against Cincinnati tonight.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
head_to_headSEA @ BOS
Red Sox are 2-1 vs Mariners this season
Three games is nothing to build a trend on. Seattle took the last one, but I'm not leaning on this series history at Boston tonight.
regression_watchMIL @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .263 AVG vs .300 xBA
Hoerner's actually underperforming a .300 expected average by a wide margin on a deep sample — that's the one arrow in this group pointing up instead of down. He's my buy-low play against Milwaukee tonight.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
ballpark_shiftDET @ MIN
At Target Field, Taj Bradley pitches to a 3.02 ERA
Target Field isn't known as a pitcher's park, so a near two-run ERA gap and a .192 average against reads like his stuff genuinely plays there. Detroit's running into the tougher version of him tonight.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
regression_watchMIA @ WSH
Keibert Ruiz: .280 AVG vs .242 xBA
Ruiz's extra-base numbers have drifted even further from his contact quality than his average has, so the pop is the shakier piece here. I'm lower on his total bases tonight than on him just picking up a hit.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
regression_watchBAL @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .253 AVG vs .216 xBA
Smallest sample of the group, and the power's outrunning the contact quality by more than the average is — that's the part due to cool first. Trust the average tonight against Baltimore and Colorado, not the pop.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
head_to_headPHI @ ARI
Diamondbacks are 2-1 vs Phillies this season
Too small a sample to call it real ownership, though at least the last game was tight at 4-3, not a blowout. Arizona gets the extra edge of hosting tonight.
cut_listSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
.607 OPS and .222 average is soft, sitting right around replacement level with zero thump behind it. The one thing keeping this from being automatic is San Diego still hitting him 2nd — that's the only mitigating factor here. Cut in shallow formats; marginal hold only if your bench is already bare.
cut_listBAL tonight
Cade Povich
Povich doesn't have the same trap door — his 4.45 ERA and 5.00 xERA are telling roughly the same story, just at different volumes. There's no hidden landmine here because the ugly number's already sitting in plain view: a below-average process producing a below-average result. Tonight's start doesn't change the read; he's shown you who he is all season. Cut — not a regression play, just a bad arm you can't hide anymore.
head_to_headSD @ CIN
Padres are 3-2 vs Reds this season
Five games, every one decided by a run or two, nobody running away with it — San Diego's just found a way to land on the right side of the close ones. That matters more walking into tonight than the record itself.
regression_tomorrowSTL @ LAD
Michael McGreevy: 3.86 ERA vs 5.38 xERA
Hard-hit and barrel rates both sitting over 42% and 10% say the contact against him has been genuinely loud. That's about as much as sequencing can cover, and the Dodgers are a tough lineup to keep it going against.
head_to_headCHW @ HOU
Astros are 2-1 vs White Sox this season
One 12-3 blowout can build a record like this in a three-game sample by itself. I wouldn't read much into this series history in Houston tonight.
closer_watchSF @ ATL
Raisel Iglesias
No committee here — Iglesias owns this job outright at 29 saves. Atlanta's a solid home favorite (-166), which is exactly the kind of script closers want. Only wrinkle: he's worked two of the last three days, including last night, so he's stretched thin heading into tonight. Still my top save target of this group — the workload is a yellow flag, not a red one. Ride him for the week, just don't be shocked if Atlanta gives him a night off in this specific game.
fantasy_pickupsSF @ ATL
Michael Harris II
Harris is hitting .295 with an .818 OPS batting fifth for a lineup that's rolling, and he draws a San Francisco arm in Anthony Molina who's been leaking a 5.45 xERA. Good bat, soft matchup — I'll take that combination seven nights a week. Add in standard mixed leagues if he's somehow still sitting on your wire.
closer_watchSD @ CIN
Mason Miller
Miller's save total says it all — 32 to Jason Adam's 2, with Adam's 17 holds marking him as the setup guy, not a threat to the job. Padres are favored (-148) on the road, and Miller's thrown just once in the last three days, so he's got plenty left in the tank. Easiest call of the bunch. Favored, no competition for the job, workload well managed — plug him in with confidence.
regression_watchSEA @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: .282 AVG vs .247 xBA
Most plate appearances of the whole group, and this gap's been true basically all season — that's a hitter who's proven he beats his contact numbers, not one riding a hot streak. I trust both the average and the power tonight against Boston.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
regression_tomorrowSD @ CIN
Nick Lodolo: 5.24 ERA vs 6.57 xERA
Even beating his own expected number, the peripherals are ugly — barrels near 10%, hard-hit near 40%. His true level looks a lot closer to the bad number than the slightly-less-bad one against San Diego.
fantasy_pickupsDET @ MIN
Trevor Larnach
Larnach's the third Twin on the board tonight, hitting sixth with a .772 OPS against the same struggling Jobe (5.67 xERA) that Jeffers gets to feast on. He's not carrying the numbers of his teammates, but the matchup does a lot of the lifting here. Streamable in deeper mixed leagues — take Jeffers first if you can only roster one Twin tonight.
regression_tomorrowDET @ MIN
Connor Prielipp: 5.54 ERA vs 4.22 xERA
A 42% hard-hit rate on top of an already shaky expected ERA is bad luck stacked on a bad profile. Not much here to lean on for a bounce-back against Detroit.
return_watchLAD — return listed 9/1
Gavin Stone
Shoulder case, 60-day IL, sheet says back tomorrow — I'll believe it when there's an actual line next to his name. Right now there's nothing on the stat sheet to grade him on. Speculative deep-league stash at best. No numbers to lean on, so let the first outing be a scouting look before you trust him in a lineup.
bullpen_fatigueBAL @ COL
Colorado Rockies pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Eight different relievers in three games tells you this pen's already stretched thin, and their one multi-inning arm needed a heavy pitch count just to finish a frame. If Baltimore pushes this one deep, Colorado's exposed.
cut_listSEA tonight
Cal Raleigh
A .171 average and a .641 OPS is replacement-level production, full stop — I don't care that Seattle keeps running him out there batting cleanup, that's organizational faith, not results. Being active tonight just means he racks up more outs on your bench... except he's in your starting nine eating at-bats. In a season-long format you need production, not lineup-card loyalty. CUT
fantasy_pickupsDET @ MIN
Kody Clemens
Clemens hits third for Minnesota, which means extra at-bats, but his .236 average and .752 OPS are the shakiest of the three Twins lined up against Jobe (5.67 xERA) tonight. The lineup spot and the beatable arm are doing the heavy lifting more than his own production. Deep-league streamer only — last man up once Jeffers and Larnach are off the board.
running_gameNYY @ LAA
New York Yankees like to run — Tyler Heineman (36% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Heineman's a real deterrent at 36% caught, but New York runs regardless of who's behind the plate. I like the Yankees to test him and come up with an out at second instead of a rally.
P New York Yankees stole 0 bases
cut_listSF tonight
Osleivis Basabe
.574 OPS and .205 average is weak on its own, and batting 6th tells you his own club already views him as a complementary piece, not an everyday building block. Nothing in this line points to more opportunity coming. Cut.
regression_tomorrowNYM @ TB
Freddy Peralta: 5.11 ERA vs 3.96 xERA
A modest 6% barrel rate and an average against only about 23 points over expected is a tight gap for an ERA over 5. That says the ERA's the outlier here, not the arm, against the Mets.
bullpen_fatigueMIA @ WSH
Miami Marlins pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Miami's top short arm has worked both of the last two days, so he's a stretch to lean on tonight. Faucher barely broke a sweat last time out, making him the cleanest low-stress option if this stays tight late against Washington.
first_inningBAL @ COL
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of BAL @ COL
Coors usually means an early track meet, but both lineups have been quiet out of the gate and Gordon's backed that up in the first inning. The thin air still shows up tonight, it just looks like a middle-innings story instead of a first-pitch one.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
closer_watchSF @ ATL
Ryan Walker / Dylan Smith
This is the one that worries me. Walker and Smith are dead even at 3 saves apiece, and Smith's actually got more holds (7 to 4), which tells me the staff trusts him just as much in high leverage. On top of that, the Giants are +140 underdogs on the road at Atlanta — that's not a save-friendly script no matter who's up in the ninth. Lowest priority of the group this week. If you're streaming saves, look elsewhere before betting on either Giants arm — the role's a coin flip and the game script probably won't hand out a save chance to begin with.
regression_watchSF @ ATL
San Francisco Giants are 11-24 in one-run games (.314 win%)
Giants are 11-24 in one-run games, a .314 clip that's more bad luck than bad team — splits like that rarely hold up. Their record is understating them, and I'm not letting it scare me off San Francisco tonight.
regression_watchPHI @ ARI
Philadelphia Phillies are 23-11 in one-run games (.676 win%)
A .676 win rate in one-run games is the kind of thing that tends to snap back toward .500 over time. Philadelphia's overall record might be flattering their true level more than the market realizes.
park_weatherSF @ ATL
92° at Truist Park — the ball will carry tonight
Heat and a bit of wind are pulling the same direction at Truist tonight, and a 12.5 total already reflects it. I like the Over, especially against anybody who lives up in the zone.
P final total 10 vs 12.5 (over lean)
first_inningMIA @ WSH
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIA @ WSH
Both these lineups have been cold out of the gate all year, and Gusto's been just as tough in the first. I like a scoreless top of the first here, with the real scoring window opening once the bullpens get involved.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
park_weatherSD @ CIN
92° at Great American Ball Park — the ball will carry tonight
Ninety-two degrees and thin air at Great American means nothing dies out there tonight — the ball carries a little further than it should for both sides. The total's already up at 9 to account for it, but I wouldn't be shocked if the carry pushes this one over anyway.
P final total 5 vs 9 (over lean)
ballpark_shiftSEA @ BOS
Payton Tolle owns a 3.64 ERA at Fenway Park — 2.59 everywhere else
Tolle's home ERA balloons to 3.64 against a 2.59 mark everywhere else, but that's the Monster turning doubles off outs, not hitters finding him — a .233 average against at home says he's not getting hit any harder. Seattle doesn't need loud contact tonight, just enough to reach the wall.
P 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
running_gameMIL @ CHC
Chicago Cubs like to run — William Contreras (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Contreras has the arm to make Chicago pay, and the Cubs run into it anyway — two real strengths canceling each other out. I'm not taking a strong side on the bases here, I expect it to split.
P Chicago Cubs stole 0 bases
cut_listCIN tonight
Brady Singer
No illusion to strip away here — 4.72 ERA, 5.1 xERA, the two numbers basically agree and neither is good. This isn't hidden quality getting buried by bad luck, it's just a below-average arm performing like one. Tonight's start isn't a referendum, it's just more of the same. Cut — not a regression play, just dead weight on the roster.
return_watchTEX — return listed 9/5
Carter Baumler
Ribs, five days out on the roster listing, 3.18 ERA on the books — that's a torso injury, not an arm injury, so I trust this timeline more than most on this list. Decent speculative stash in deeper mixed and holds formats. Still want role clarity before trusting him in a saves-driven league.
fantasy_pickupsCHW @ HOU
Peter Lambert
Lambert's peripherals like him more than the box score does — a 3.54 xERA against a 3.66 actual ERA means there's room for that number to drop. He backs it up with real swing-and-miss stuff at 8.8 K/9 and isn't giving away free baserunners either at a 1.23 WHIP. Get him at home against the White Sox in the CHW @ HOU matchup and that's about as clean a target start as you'll find sitting on the wire. He's parked in the DEEP tier for a reason, but that's exactly who this is for — deep-league and daily-transaction rosters add him for this start; standard mixed leagues can let this one pass.
ballpark_shiftNYY @ LAA
Walbert Urena owns a 2.54 ERA at Angel Stadium — 3.57 everywhere else
Angel Stadium plays fairly neutral, so Urena's 2.54 ERA and .185 average against at home isn't the ballpark bailing him out — that's him finding another gear. Yankees get the sharper version of this arm tonight, not the one that's struggled on the road.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
running_gameSEA @ BOS
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Connor Wong has caught just 14%
Wong's caught seven of fifty-one on the year, so Seattle running isn't a gamble, it's free bases. A walk and two steals scores the same as a double, and I'd expect Boston's pitcher working from the stretch most of the night because of it.
P Seattle Mariners stole 0 bases
running_gamePHI @ ARI
Arizona Diamondbacks like to run — Garrett Stubbs (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Stubbs controls the running game more than Arizona wants to admit, and the Diamondbacks are going to test him anyway. I like the caught-stealing over the stolen base tonight.
P Arizona Diamondbacks stole 0 bases
return_watchKC — return listed 9/5
Carlos Estevez
Shoulder plus 60-day IL is the injury combo that makes me slow down, and there's no season line here telling me what he looked like beforehand. Low priority. I don't rank a shoulder-injury reliever with zero current numbers ahead of the waiver-wire noise — let him actually pitch first.
return_watchSEA — return listed 9/8
Matt Brash
Lat, 60-day IL, eight days from his target date — but a 0.54 ERA is the loudest number in this whole group, hurt or not. STASH — best number in the group; hold the spot and activate the second he's back.
return_watchTEX — return listed 9/8
Robert Garcia
Same shoulder caution, and he's the furthest out of this whole group at eight days on the listing. At least the 3.38 ERA says he was getting outs before the IL stint. Deep-league watch, not an active stash yet. Shoulder plus a week-plus runway is too much smoke for shallow or medium formats.
first_inningSEA @ BOS
BOS have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Boston's scored in the first just once in their last ten, and the board's already leaning hard into it with that under at -140. One of tonight's arms has been especially stingy early, under .230 against, so if a run sneaks through in the first, it's coming from the other dugout.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
first_inningSF @ ATL
SF strike first: 1st-inning runs in 7 of their last 10
Giants have scored first in 7 of their last 10, and Elder's given up his share of early damage. I like San Francisco jumping on Atlanta before their bullpen's even loose.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
first_inningDET @ MIN
DET have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Detroit's first-inning bats have gone quiet all year, and the arm they're facing keeps the average down even though his ERA reads rough — his damage has come in solo homers, not rallies. I'm leaning toward a scoreless top of the first with any real scoring showing up later.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningSD @ CIN
CIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Cincinnati's lineup has gone dark in the first all season, and tonight they draw a starter who's been nearly automatic early — sub-1 ERA, hitters near .115 against him in the first. Neither arm is an easy first-inning out, so I'm banking on a clean top of the first before this game finds any scoring.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

L
Braves -1.5 +105
MLB · 7-3
L
Rays -1.5 +114
MLB · 3-2
W
Padres ML -144
MLB · 5-0
W
Red Sox ML -154
MLB · 8-9
W
Twins ML -118
MLB · 1-11
L
Brewers ML -106
MLB · 3-17
L
Marlins ML -114
MLB · 3-6
L
Athletics +1.5 -120
MLB · 1-8
L
White Sox ML +118
MLB · 3-6
L
Yankees ML -120
MLB · 1-10
W
Phillies ML -108
MLB · 2-1
W
Orioles ML -118
MLB · 2-1

Props

L
Aaron Nola · over
Phillies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 4
L
Andres Chaparro · over
Marlins @ Nationals · Actual 0
W
Anthony Kay · over
White Sox @ Astros · Actual 6
L
Anthony Molina · under
Giants @ Braves · Actual 6
L
Blaze Alexander · over
Orioles @ Rockies · Actual 0
W
Brady Singer · over
Padres @ Reds · Actual 4
L
Brooks Lee · over
Tigers @ Twins · Actual 0
W
Bryce Harper · over
Phillies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 3
W
Clay Holmes · under
Brewers @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Dillon Dingler · under
Tigers @ Twins · Actual 0
W
Elmer Rodriguez · under
Yankees @ Angels · Actual 11
W
George Kirby · over
Mariners @ Red Sox · Actual 7
L
Henry Bolte · over
Athletics @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Heriberto Hernandez · over
Marlins @ Nationals · Actual 0
L
Jacob deGrom · under
Athletics @ Rangers · Actual 21
L
Jake Burger · over
Athletics @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Jonah Cox · over
Giants @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Junior Caminero · over
Mets @ Rays · Actual 1
W
Kyle Harrison · under
Brewers @ Cubs · Actual 11
W
Michael King · over
Padres @ Reds · Actual 18
W
Miguel Vargas · over
White Sox @ Astros · Actual 1
L
Payton Tolle · over
Mariners @ Red Sox · Actual 6
L
Robert Stock · under
Mets @ Rays · Actual 16
W
Taj Bradley · over
Tigers @ Twins · Actual 9
L
Tanner Gordon · over
Orioles @ Rockies · Actual 1
L
Walbert Urena · over
Yankees @ Angels · Actual 0
W
Will Dion · under
Marlins @ Nationals · Actual 9