Sports picks for Monday, August 31, 2026

Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Bryce Elder (RHP), batting 1st

Gilbert leads off against a right-hander, so Elder has to deal with the best version of him from the first pitch, and the top of the order means that edge gets recycled more than anyone else's tonight. San Francisco didn't have to engineer this matchup — the card just handed it to them.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Marlins are 12-5 vs Nationals this season

Seventeen meetings is basically a full season, and 12-5 says Miami's had Washington's number all year, not just this week. Last time out was 6-2, right in line with the pattern. I like the Marlins to keep that going on the road tonight.

Diamondbacks 7-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts

Arizona's riding three straight wins on his turn, which means the lineup's getting out early and the bullpen's closing the door behind him. Philadelphia can punish a mistake, but the Diamondbacks have handled their business behind this arm all year.

Red Sox 7-1 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts

Boston's 7-1 when Tolle starts because the whole club plays different behind him — aggressive early, bullpen never scrambling. Seattle has to be the team that breaks that pattern, and nothing about tonight tells me they're it.

Twins are 7-2 vs Tigers this season

7-2 over nine games already says Minnesota's had the better roster in this series, but that 11-0 finish last time out is the number that jumps off the page. That's the freshest form on the board and I'm siding with the Twins again.

DET games have gone UNDER 6 straight

Detroit's putting up 4.3 runs a night against totals that have been set way higher, so this under run has real room behind it. Tonight's number climbs to 9 — even more cushion for the under to work with.

P final total 12 vs 9

LAA have lost 7 straight

The Angels are losing these by about two runs a night, competitive but unable to close — and 2-8 over the last ten says that's just where this team is right now. The Yankees are a tougher out than what already made it seven straight.

P team won 1-10

ATL have won 7 straight

Atlanta's plus-9 over these seven wins works out to barely a run a game, so these have been close finishes landing their way, not blowouts. I don't see San Francisco being the team that flips one back.

P team lost 7-3

Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot

Turang leading off against a righty puts his best split in the spot that sees the most pitches over nine innings. Holmes throwing right-handed means the top of the order is getting the strong version of him all night.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Cal Raleigh: 1.244 OPS in Last 15 Days

That sub-.650 season line always looked miscast, and this two-week surge is the real bat showing up. Thirty-eight plate appearances is enough to trust it — a half a total base tonight is nothing for a swing this hot.

P 1-for-5, 4 TB

Mickey Gasper: 1.710 OPS in Last 15 Days

Twenty-six plate appearances is the thinnest sample of the night, so 1.710 is more heat-check than new normal — but it's sitting on top of an .840 season line, meaning there was already a good hitter here before the streak started. 1.5 total bases tonight, two hits or one that goes for extra bases, is exactly the kind of line this version of him has been clearing.

P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB

Tanner Gordon owns a 7.89 ERA at Coors Field — 2.68 everywhere else

Coors turns fringy stuff into loud contact for everybody, and Gordon's .332 against up there is real damage, not bad bounces. I want Baltimore's lineup in this spot, not his arm.

P 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 K

White Sox 6-2 in Anthony Kay's last 8 starts

Chicago's handing Kay leads instead of scratching to survive his starts, and six wins in his last eight backs that up. I like them to run that same formula back on the road in Houston.

Rockies 2-6 in Tanner Gordon's last 8 starts

Colorado's bats and glove have gone quiet behind Gordon often enough now that it looks like the pattern, not the exception. Baltimore's catching a home team that hasn't had his back lately.

Andres Chaparro (bats R) draws Ryan Gusto (RHP), batting 3rd

Chaparro runs backwards from the usual platoon logic — sharper against right-handers than lefties — which flips the read on tonight's matchup. Batting third puts that quirk in the highest-leverage spot near the top of the order, and Gusto doesn't get the same-side cover a right-hander normally expects here.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Braves 6-2 in Bryce Elder's last 8 starts

Atlanta's getting length from Elder, which means a rested pen and a lineup that isn't pressing — that's a team playing loose on his turns. San Francisco's stepping into a comfortable home side tonight, not a stressed one.

Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot

Batting third against a righty drops Harper into the first real RBI spot with his strongest split working. Whoever's on ahead of him tonight is getting driven in by the Harper that eats right-handers alive.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

CJ Abrams: .377 OPS in Last 15 Days

That's too deep a sample to wave off as tough luck — Abrams' swing looks genuinely out of sync right now. I'm not betting on a sudden fix from him tonight.

Tristan Peters: 1.235 OPS in Last 15 Days

He was already hitting .811 on the year, so climbing past 1.000 over 44 plate appearances is a good hitter compounding, not a soft-schedule mirage. Half a total base is an easy lean with twelve homers already banked.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB

Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 4th against Robert Stock (RHP)

Cleanup is exactly where you want a lefty bat who splits this hard by handedness, and Hicks is at his sharpest right when the starter is a right-hander. Stock doesn't have a same-side escape valve built into tonight's lineup card.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

A.J. Ewing: .305 OPS in Last 15 Days

He wasn't much of a bat before this slide, and dropping even further says the contact quality has actually worsened. No reason to expect that flips just because Tampa's on the schedule.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

Peter Lambert: 8.16 ERA over his last 3 starts

The WHIP jump is the tell — he's just putting more guys on, which is a command issue, not misfortune. That's a bad mix walking into Houston, where free runners turn into crooked innings fast.

P 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K

Justin Foscue (bats R) gets a LHP from the 6th spot

Foscue's platoon gap is about as wide as they get, and drawing a lefty tonight means the six-hole is carrying real thump instead of just filling out the bottom of the order. This is a lower slot playing like a middle-of-the-order threat purely because the handedness lines up.

P 1-for-2, 4 TB

Mark Vientos (bats R) hits 4th against Ian Seymour (LHP)

Vientos is the textbook right-handed case, he comes alive against left-handed pitching, and cleanup is exactly where that version of him needs to be plugged in tonight. Seymour is running straight into the setup built to punish him specifically.

P 1-for-4, 4 TB

Julio Rodriguez: .405 OPS in Last 15 Days

Even his normal level wasn't peak form this year, and sliding further below that over this much of a sample says the timing's broken, not the luck. I'm not chasing him in Boston tonight.

P 1-for-5, 2 TB

Osleivis Basabe (bats R) hits 6th against Bryce Elder (RHP)

Basabe runs the opposite of the typical platoon pattern — more comfortable against right-handers than lefties — so Elder isn't the tough draw he'd be for most hitters in this spot. Sixth isn't glamorous, but it's the job of keeping the line moving after the top of the order's already had its cuts.

P 1-for-4, 4 TB

Agustin Ramirez (bats R) hits 3rd against Will Dion (LHP)

Ramirez follows the standard right-handed pattern too, doing his best work against lefties, and hitting third means that strength shows up early instead of waiting to cycle through the middle innings. Dion has to get through the top of the order built for exactly this matchup before he ever settles in.

P 1-for-2, 1 TB

Alec Bohm: 1.047 OPS in Last 15 Days

Jumping from a .687 season line to over 1.000 the last two weeks, on 47 plate appearances, is a real form change. The 1.5 total bases ask is the steepest in this group, but he's earned the benefit of the doubt right now.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Giants are 4-1 vs Braves this season

Five games is thin to hang a record on, and none of them were routs — 3-2 last time keeps with a series decided by a run or two all year. San Francisco's just been landing on the right side of the close ones.

Christian Walker: .397 OPS in Last 15 Days

The size of that gap, over that many trips to the plate, says the timing's slipped rather than the results just lagging behind good contact. Pitch him like a hitter still searching, not one due.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Lawrence Butler: 1.042 OPS in Last 15 Days

Off a .700 season floor, this kind of jump across 48 plate appearances isn't a soft-schedule fluke — the power's been real all year and it's all clicking at once. Half a total base undersells where this bat is.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

Dillon Dingler: .411 OPS in Last 15 Days

That's a deep enough sample below his own level to call it a real slump. Nothing in this stretch says the timing fixes itself tonight.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Cole Young: .354 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Payton Tolle

Lefties have been a real, standing issue for Young over a decent sample, not a two-week wrinkle — Tolle tonight lines up right with it. Layer the cold stretch on top and this is tougher than his season line lets on.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Chase Meidroth: .467 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Peter Lambert

He's got real history struggling against right-handers, and that's exactly the look he draws again tonight. An established weakness meeting a cold stretch is two negatives stacking, not canceling out, so I'm leaning down here rather than banking a bounce-back.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB

Zack Gelof: .482 OPS in Last 15 Days

Real enough sample, but the dip is moderate, not a collapse — more of a quiet lull than anything alarming. He's live to snap out of it on any given pitch tonight.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Francisco Alvarez: .281 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Ian Seymour

The slump itself is barely two weeks of at-bats, which would normally argue for regression back to his real level. But it's paired with his tougher platoon side, so tonight doesn't offer the kind of matchup that makes that case easy to trust — I'd treat this as a fade, not a rebound spot.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

Munetaka Murakami: .531 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Peter Lambert

This is the one spot on the board that actually favors the cold bat. Murakami's numbers against righties over a big sample run well above his season line — that's usually about where a slump snaps.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 3 BB

Royce Lewis: .424 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jackson Jobe

He's got enough history against right-handers that this reads as a real, established weakness, not noise, and that's the look he draws again tonight. Layer a cold couple of weeks on top and nothing about this matchup favors him.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Mickey Moniak: .529 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Cade Povich

He's shown all season he can really hit, so a rough couple of weeks doesn't say much about his true level on its own. The issue is the pitcher works his softer side, and even on a small sample that split's trended well below his overall production — I'd expect the cold stretch to carry into tonight rather than break.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Gary Sanchez: .157 OPS in Last 15 Days

That sample's thin enough that this reads like a cold two weeks, not a broken swing. His season level says there's a bounce-back in him.

P 0-for-1, 0 TB

Joc Pederson: .318 OPS in Last 15 Days

Sample's thin enough here that this reads as noise more than signal. Same matchup as Gelof tonight, and he's a bat that can flip from cold to dangerous in one at-bat.

P 0-for-1, 0 TB

Gabriel Hughes: 6.61 ERA vs 3.61 xERA

Sub-5% barrels and hard-hit under 29% are clean, starter-quality numbers — the ERA is way out of line with the actual contact he's allowing. I expect a cleaner line out of him against Baltimore than that season number suggests.

Ryan Helsley / Andrew Kittredge

Helsley's technically the 1A here but Kittredge is breathing down his neck at 7 saves and 9 holds — that's a real committee by the numbers, not just a label. Good news: Helsley hasn't pitched in three days, so he's fresh, and Baltimore's -138 on the road gives him a live shot at work tonight. Start him if he's on your roster — rested arm, favored team, first crack at the job. Just don't treat this as a locked-in role; keep Kittredge on your radar all week.

Brooks Lee

Gary's Take This number is too long for Lee’s power profile. He has 22 homers this season, with 19 against right-handed pitching, and has gone deep five times in his last 15 games.

P 0 HR — 1-for-5, 1 TB

Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.210 OPS in Last 15 Days

He was already hitting like one of the better bats around at .944, and climbing even higher over 56 plate appearances is a great year getting greater. 1.5 total bases is a normal night for most, but he's been blowing past it.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Zach Neto: 1.036 OPS in Last 15 Days

Neto's bump is modest and believable, only .286 over his season mark off a real sample — nothing like the wild spikes elsewhere tonight. With 23 homers of pop behind it, 1.5 total bases is very gettable.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB

Andrew Kittredge / Ryan Helsley

Baltimore's -138 on the road at Colorado says there should be a lead to protect, but the ninth is a true coin flip — Kittredge and Helsley are knotted at 8 saves apiece and this pen's flagged as a committee. The role's combined for just two outings across the team's last three games, and both arms check in fully rested for tonight. Live save spot, no clear name attached to it. Roster both if you've got bench space; if you can only carry one, understand you're guessing blind on a true 50/50.

Robert Stock: 7.4 ERA vs 4.9 xERA

Even his own expected number is bad — a 1.94 WHIP and 9% barrels mean hitters are squaring him up for real, and the actual average against is worse than that. Nothing here I want to touch against Tampa Bay tonight.

P 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K

CIN games have gone OVER 4 straight

Cincinnati's averaging near 18 a game against totals set around 8.4 — that offense has been doubling the number, not sneaking over it. Tonight's total drops to 5.5, the easiest bar the streak's had to clear yet.

P final total 5 vs 5.5

Nasim Nunez: .247 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Gusto

Nunez was already the lightest bat in this group, so this slump is a light hitter getting lighter, not a fall from a strong level. Gusto isn't adding extra danger — this is just what the bat generally looks like.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

SEA have lost 4 straight

Twenty-one runs allowed over four games is getting overwhelmed nightly, not losing close. Still just a sudden dip with a fine 4-6 last-ten behind it, but Boston at home is plenty capable of stretching it to five.

P team lost 8-9

Connor Norby: .999 OPS in Last 15 Days

Jumping from a .693 season mark to near 1.000 over 46 plate appearances is enough volume to trust — that's a guy stringing together genuinely better at-bats. Half a total base is a light ask for this kind of form.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

TB have won 4 straight

Plus-10 over four games works out to two and a half runs a night — Tampa's been putting these away, not sneaking through them. But 6-4 over the last ten says this is a hot pocket, and the Mets are the first real test of whether it holds.

P team lost 3-2

Pete Alonso: 1.090 OPS in Last 15 Days

An .863 season line was already elite, and climbing higher over 56 plate appearances is a great hitter getting hotter, not a soft-schedule thing. 1.5 total bases is right around his normal pace and he's running well ahead of it.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Jake Burger

Gary's Take Burger’s power against left-handed pitching makes +413 worth taking. He has nine home runs in 118 at-bats against lefties this season, carries an .881 OPS in that split and has homered in four of his last 15 games.

P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 3 TB

Payton Tolle

Tolle owns the best number on this whole board, 2.69 xERA, and the tier says plan around him no matter who's in the other dugout. He's home tonight against the Mariners, then turns around for a Saturday date at the Orioles — a clean two-start week. Must-start both. If tonight's game hasn't locked yet, get him in now — this is your anchor arm for the week.

Dillon Dingler (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot

Dingler's a same-hand riser, sharper against right-handers than lefties, so tonight's starter isn't the tough assignment the four-hole usually represents against that hand. That's the best version of him landing in the exact spot built to do damage.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Randy Dobnak: 1.92 ERA vs 4.55 xERA

A two-and-a-half-run gap between ERA and xERA is a lot, and hard-hit contact near 40% says hitters are squaring him up more than the results show. Miami's a live spot for some of that cushion to disappear.

William Contreras: 1.008 OPS in Last 15 Days

A solid, unspectacular uptick for Contreras — not a wild spike, and that tends to hold up better than the extreme ones. With 13 homers already banked, 1.5 total bases is very reachable.

P 1-for-2, 2 TB, 1 BB

Jesús Luzardo

Second-best xERA in the group at 2.87, another PLAN_AROUND arm. He opens Tuesday on the road at the Diamondbacks, then comes home to close the week Sunday against the Braves — a full slate of lead time before he locks. Start him both times, no second-guessing.

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BDL lists 1 NFL game on the next slate. Its kickoff time is confirmed.

Chicago White Sox pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games

Chicago's best short arms are either freshly used or already touched twice in this stretch — there's not much rest left in that pen. If their starter doesn't give length tonight, Houston starts seeing arms this staff would rather keep hidden.

Christopher Morel

A .435 OPS and .165 average isn't a slump, it's replacement level with extra strikeouts mixed in. Batting 6th tonight doesn't change the math — a lineup spot isn't buying him more rope in a season-long format at this point. Cut, no debate.

Andres Chaparro

Gary's Take Chaparro has four home runs in 45 at-bats against right-handers while producing a 1.131 OPS in that split. He also has three homers in his last 32 at-bats and is positioned third in the order.

P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB

Athletics are 7-5 vs Rangers this season

Twelve meetings and a near-even record says this is a genuinely competitive series, not one club owning the other. Oakland's freshest form is a win last time out, and that's enough to lean their way tonight.

Rafael Devers: 1.015 OPS in Last 15 Days

Fifty-nine plate appearances is the deepest sample in this whole group, and he was already performing like an above-average bat before this stretch started. 1.5 total bases is well within reach given the rhythm he's in.

P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB

Aaron Nola: 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts

Twenty-four strikeouts in eighteen innings is real swing-and-miss, not weak contact finding gloves. This looks like the version of him that's actually turned a corner walking into Arizona.

P 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

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George Kirby: 6.89 ERA over his last 3 starts

Twenty-three hits allowed in this stretch is hitters squaring him up consistently, not a couple of bad breaks. Nothing here says Boston's the game that fixes it.

P 5 IP, 5 ER, 2 K

Paul Skenes

Skenes gets the cleanest schedule on the board — both starts at home, Tuesday against the Giants and again Sunday against the Angels — carrying a 3.12 xERA into a PLAN_AROUND tier. Start both. Two home starts from this arm is as safe as this format gets.

Jackson Jobe

Jobe's showing a 3.93 ERA but the process behind it says 5.67 — a run and three-quarters of separation between what's hit the scoreboard and what should have. Gaps that size don't hold, they close, and they rarely close in the pitcher's favor. He's back on the mound tonight still wearing the good number, but you're rostering the 5.67 whether you like it or not. Cut him before the ERA catches up to the process.

Elmer Rodriguez: 2.5 ERA vs 4.43 xERA

A 1.52 WHIP next to a 2.5 ERA tells the real story — he's surviving traffic more than missing bats, with strikeouts light and hard contact climbing. One bad inning against the Angels changes this number fast.

P 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K

Gerrit Cole

Cole's two starts both come away from home — Tuesday at the Angels, Sunday at the Padres — with a 3.26 xERA keeping him in PLAN_AROUND territory. Start both. A full two-start week from him is worth the roster spot regardless of venue.

Kyle Harrison

Harrison draws two true road starts this week, tonight at the Cubs and then Saturday at the Reds, but his 3.24 xERA still earns him the PLAN_AROUND label. Start both. The tier's telling you to trust the arm over the itinerary.

Will Dion

Dion's tier says plan around him at 3.14 xERA, and he's on the mound tonight at home against the Marlins before a Saturday trip to face the Dodgers. Start both — set your lineup before tonight's game if it isn't locked already.

Ryan Gusto: 1.26 ERA over his last 3 starts

His WHIP sits right at the season mark while the runs allowed nearly vanished — that's genuinely limiting damage, not luck stranding runners. This reads as a real level-up walking into Washington.

P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Jackson Jobe: 3.93 ERA vs 5.67 xERA

The average against is basically where it should be, but hard-hit over 40% and barrels above 9% say the underlying contact is a real concern. Minnesota's exactly the lineup that tests whether his timing luck holds.

P 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 K

Troy Melton

Melton sits right behind Ureña at 3.41 xERA, also tagged STREAM_BOTH. Both starts are on the road this week — Tuesday at the Twins, Sunday at the Guardians. Streaming play both. Treat as matchup-dependent, not a lock-in.

Chandler Simpson: .309 AVG vs .257 xBA

That gap isn't a two-week heater, it's held steady across a full season's worth of at-bats, with the average and the overall production running hot by almost the same amount the whole way. When both move together that long, it's a real hit-tool edge, not luck that's due to run out — lean into the hit and total-bases numbers tonight.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

Anthony Molina

This is the harder cut to make because the ERA is gorgeous — 2.89 — and gorgeous ERAs make owners stubborn. But a 5.45 xERA underneath it is the widest crack on this list, north of two and a half runs of daylight. He starts tonight still looking like an ace on the stat page, and that's exactly the window to move him before everyone else notices. Cut — sell the shiny ERA while it still has takers.

Walbert Ureña

Ureña carries the highest xERA on this list, 3.43, and is one of two arms that drop to STREAM_BOTH. He's home tonight against the Yankees, then travels Saturday to face the Pirates. Streamer only. Play the matchup, not the name, and stay ready to pivot off him if a better two-start option opens up.

Clay Holmes: 2.26 ERA vs 3.96 xERA

A 42% hard-hit rate paired with a 2.26 ERA is a wide gap, and a 55-point spread between actual and expected average says some of that cushion gives back. I'd expect Milwaukee to find a few more hits than he's allowed lately.

P 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 K

Houston Astros pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

Houston's leaned on Hader and Abreu twice each in this stretch, and that well doesn't refill overnight. Push this one deep and they're either running those two back on short rest or turning to arms that haven't been tested like this.

Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.5 ERA vs 4.43 xERA

Barrels allowed sit at a manageable 7.8%, but a 33.9% hard-hit rate says hitters are getting the bat head to the ball more than the results let on. The 27-point gap between what opponents are hitting and what they're projected to hit is squarely batted-ball luck, and that tends to shrink — tomorrow's matchup with Philadelphia is a fair spot to see some of it close.

Wind blowing out 11 mph at Wrigley Field tonight

Wind blowing straight out at Wrigley is about as strong a carry signal as you get — balls that die on a normal night keep going tonight. That cuts both ways for both lineups, and the total sitting at 9.5 already respects it.

P final total 20 vs 9.5 (over lean)

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Forearm had him on the 60-day, and the roster now lists today as the return — that's a listing, not him actually trotting out to second base. Even at full health he was running a .705 OPS. Not a stash. Streaming filler in deep formats only — the bat was never the reason to roster him.

Christian Moore

A .505 OPS technically clears the guy above him, but by a margin that means nothing from the 6-hole. A .167 average is still replacement-level offense with a little more loft mixed in. Tonight's lineup spot buys him one more game to show it's turning, not a reason to keep burning a bench slot on a hope. Cut. Marginally less bad still isn't good.

Tanner Gordon: 3.31 ERA over his last 3 starts

Six earned runs with double-digit strikeouts over three starts is legitimate progress. Problem is he's walking right back into Coors, and that building has undone better recent form than this.

P 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 K

Randy Vásquez: 4.02 ERA vs 5.67 xERA

Hard-hit near 44% and barrels over 10% are legitimately alarming numbers hiding behind a decent-looking ERA. Cincinnati's a real threat to be the game where the results finally catch up to the contact.

Ryan Jeffers

An .838 OPS from the cleanup spot is already a strong line for a catcher, a position where standards are low. Tonight Jeffers gets Jackson Jobe, who's been getting hammered to a 5.67 xERA. Scarce position plus a struggling arm on the mound — that's as clean a streaming case as you'll find. Add in every league where you're staring at a hole at catcher. No debate here.

Joe Mantiply

Knee, not the throwing arm — that's the encouraging part of this 60-day stint. And a 2.04 ERA on the books before he went down says there was real substance there. Worth a speculative add in holds and deeper mixed leagues. I want to see what role he lands in before trusting him anywhere shallow.

Ryne Nelson

Elbow guys on a 60-day tag don't just flip a switch because the sheet says tomorrow — treat that as a target, not a lock. He was sitting on a 4.97 ERA before the elbow shut him down. Cut him loose. Bad ERA plus an elbow flag is the one combo I won't burn a roster spot chasing.

Bryce Elder: 5.82 ERA over his last 3 starts

Twenty-two hits allowed across three starts is hitters finding barrels start after start, not one bad night skewing things. Nothing points to a fix happening at home against Atlanta tonight.

P 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K

Wind blowing out 10 mph at Angel Stadium tonight

Ten miles an hour out to center at Angel Stadium turns warning-track fly balls into homers, and with the total parked at just 8, there's plenty of room for it to climb. I'm leaning Over if that wind holds into the night.

P final total 11 vs 8 (over lean)

Troy Melton: 1.86 ERA vs 3.41 xERA

Hard contact's up in the high 30s but the barrel rate's under 6% — hitters are making contact without doing real damage. This looks like a more sustainable line against Minnesota than the xERA gap suggests.

Brady Singer owns a 3.82 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 5.67 everywhere else

Great American plays small, so if anything the park should be working against him — instead he's been sharper at home, which says something about him, not the ballpark. San Diego's catching the tougher version of Singer tonight.

P 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K

Jake Fraley

Groin's had him shelved, tomorrow's the listed target on the 60-day — but a .690 OPS was the story even when he was healthy and playing. Pass. Outfield stash spots are too valuable to spend on a sub-.700 bat, hurt or not.

Ty France: .287 AVG vs .249 xBA

France's average is running hot, but the power number's drifted the same amount over 400-plus plate appearances — that's not luck, that's just who he is this year. I like the hits to keep coming against Cincinnati tonight.

P 3-for-5, 3 TB

Astros are 2-1 vs White Sox this season

One 12-3 blowout can build a record like this in a three-game sample by itself. I wouldn't read much into this series history in Houston tonight.

Michael McGreevy: 3.86 ERA vs 5.38 xERA

Hard-hit and barrel rates both sitting over 42% and 10% say the contact against him has been genuinely loud. That's about as much as sequencing can cover, and the Dodgers are a tough lineup to keep it going against.

Nico Hoerner: .263 AVG vs .300 xBA

Hoerner's actually underperforming a .300 expected average by a wide margin on a deep sample — that's the one arrow in this group pointing up instead of down. He's my buy-low play against Milwaukee tonight.

P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB

Keibert Ruiz: .280 AVG vs .242 xBA

Ruiz's extra-base numbers have drifted even further from his contact quality than his average has, so the pop is the shakier piece here. I'm lower on his total bases tonight than on him just picking up a hit.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

Mickey Moniak: .253 AVG vs .216 xBA

Smallest sample of the group, and the power's outrunning the contact quality by more than the average is — that's the part due to cool first. Trust the average tonight against Baltimore and Colorado, not the pop.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Jake Cronenworth

.607 OPS and .222 average is soft, sitting right around replacement level with zero thump behind it. The one thing keeping this from being automatic is San Diego still hitting him 2nd — that's the only mitigating factor here. Cut in shallow formats; marginal hold only if your bench is already bare.

At Target Field, Taj Bradley pitches to a 3.02 ERA

Target Field isn't known as a pitcher's park, so a near two-run ERA gap and a .192 average against reads like his stuff genuinely plays there. Detroit's running into the tougher version of him tonight.

P 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K

Cade Povich

Povich doesn't have the same trap door — his 4.45 ERA and 5.00 xERA are telling roughly the same story, just at different volumes. There's no hidden landmine here because the ugly number's already sitting in plain view: a below-average process producing a below-average result. Tonight's start doesn't change the read; he's shown you who he is all season. Cut — not a regression play, just a bad arm you can't hide anymore.

Diamondbacks are 2-1 vs Phillies this season

Too small a sample to call it real ownership, though at least the last game was tight at 4-3, not a blowout. Arizona gets the extra edge of hosting tonight.

Red Sox are 2-1 vs Mariners this season

Three games is nothing to build a trend on. Seattle took the last one, but I'm not leaning on this series history at Boston tonight.

Padres are 3-2 vs Reds this season

Five games, every one decided by a run or two, nobody running away with it — San Diego's just found a way to land on the right side of the close ones. That matters more walking into tonight than the record itself.

Michael Harris II

Harris is hitting .295 with an .818 OPS batting fifth for a lineup that's rolling, and he draws a San Francisco arm in Anthony Molina who's been leaking a 5.45 xERA. Good bat, soft matchup — I'll take that combination seven nights a week. Add in standard mixed leagues if he's somehow still sitting on your wire.

Ceddanne Rafaela: .282 AVG vs .247 xBA

Most plate appearances of the whole group, and this gap's been true basically all season — that's a hitter who's proven he beats his contact numbers, not one riding a hot streak. I trust both the average and the power tonight against Boston.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

Raisel Iglesias

No committee here — Iglesias owns this job outright at 29 saves. Atlanta's a solid home favorite (-166), which is exactly the kind of script closers want. Only wrinkle: he's worked two of the last three days, including last night, so he's stretched thin heading into tonight. Still my top save target of this group — the workload is a yellow flag, not a red one. Ride him for the week, just don't be shocked if Atlanta gives him a night off in this specific game.

Mason Miller

Miller's save total says it all — 32 to Jason Adam's 2, with Adam's 17 holds marking him as the setup guy, not a threat to the job. Padres are favored (-148) on the road, and Miller's thrown just once in the last three days, so he's got plenty left in the tank. Easiest call of the bunch. Favored, no competition for the job, workload well managed — plug him in with confidence.

Nick Lodolo: 5.24 ERA vs 6.57 xERA

Even beating his own expected number, the peripherals are ugly — barrels near 10%, hard-hit near 40%. His true level looks a lot closer to the bad number than the slightly-less-bad one against San Diego.

Trevor Larnach

Larnach's the third Twin on the board tonight, hitting sixth with a .772 OPS against the same struggling Jobe (5.67 xERA) that Jeffers gets to feast on. He's not carrying the numbers of his teammates, but the matchup does a lot of the lifting here. Streamable in deeper mixed leagues — take Jeffers first if you can only roster one Twin tonight.

Connor Prielipp: 5.54 ERA vs 4.22 xERA

A 42% hard-hit rate on top of an already shaky expected ERA is bad luck stacked on a bad profile. Not much here to lean on for a bounce-back against Detroit.

Gavin Stone

Shoulder case, 60-day IL, sheet says back tomorrow — I'll believe it when there's an actual line next to his name. Right now there's nothing on the stat sheet to grade him on. Speculative deep-league stash at best. No numbers to lean on, so let the first outing be a scouting look before you trust him in a lineup.

Kody Clemens

Clemens hits third for Minnesota, which means extra at-bats, but his .236 average and .752 OPS are the shakiest of the three Twins lined up against Jobe (5.67 xERA) tonight. The lineup spot and the beatable arm are doing the heavy lifting more than his own production. Deep-league streamer only — last man up once Jeffers and Larnach are off the board.

Colorado Rockies pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games

Eight different relievers in three games tells you this pen's already stretched thin, and their one multi-inning arm needed a heavy pitch count just to finish a frame. If Baltimore pushes this one deep, Colorado's exposed.

Osleivis Basabe

.574 OPS and .205 average is weak on its own, and batting 6th tells you his own club already views him as a complementary piece, not an everyday building block. Nothing in this line points to more opportunity coming. Cut.

Cal Raleigh

A .171 average and a .641 OPS is replacement-level production, full stop — I don't care that Seattle keeps running him out there batting cleanup, that's organizational faith, not results. Being active tonight just means he racks up more outs on your bench... except he's in your starting nine eating at-bats. In a season-long format you need production, not lineup-card loyalty. CUT

New York Yankees like to run — Tyler Heineman (36% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

Heineman's a real deterrent at 36% caught, but New York runs regardless of who's behind the plate. I like the Yankees to test him and come up with an out at second instead of a rally.

P New York Yankees stole 0 bases

Freddy Peralta: 5.11 ERA vs 3.96 xERA

A modest 6% barrel rate and an average against only about 23 points over expected is a tight gap for an ERA over 5. That says the ERA's the outlier here, not the arm, against the Mets.

Miami Marlins pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games

Miami's top short arm has worked both of the last two days, so he's a stretch to lean on tonight. Faucher barely broke a sweat last time out, making him the cleanest low-stress option if this stays tight late against Washington.

92° at Truist Park — the ball will carry tonight

Heat and a bit of wind are pulling the same direction at Truist tonight, and a 12.5 total already reflects it. I like the Over, especially against anybody who lives up in the zone.

P final total 10 vs 12.5 (over lean)

NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of BAL @ COL

Coors usually means an early track meet, but both lineups have been quiet out of the gate and Gordon's backed that up in the first inning. The thin air still shows up tonight, it just looks like a middle-innings story instead of a first-pitch one.

P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)

Philadelphia Phillies are 23-11 in one-run games (.676 win%)

A .676 win rate in one-run games is the kind of thing that tends to snap back toward .500 over time. Philadelphia's overall record might be flattering their true level more than the market realizes.

92° at Great American Ball Park — the ball will carry tonight

Ninety-two degrees and thin air at Great American means nothing dies out there tonight — the ball carries a little further than it should for both sides. The total's already up at 9 to account for it, but I wouldn't be shocked if the carry pushes this one over anyway.

P final total 5 vs 9 (over lean)

NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIA @ WSH

Both these lineups have been cold out of the gate all year, and Gusto's been just as tough in the first. I like a scoreless top of the first here, with the real scoring window opening once the bullpens get involved.

P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)

Ryan Walker / Dylan Smith

This is the one that worries me. Walker and Smith are dead even at 3 saves apiece, and Smith's actually got more holds (7 to 4), which tells me the staff trusts him just as much in high leverage. On top of that, the Giants are +140 underdogs on the road at Atlanta — that's not a save-friendly script no matter who's up in the ninth. Lowest priority of the group this week. If you're streaming saves, look elsewhere before betting on either Giants arm — the role's a coin flip and the game script probably won't hand out a save chance to begin with.

San Francisco Giants are 11-24 in one-run games (.314 win%)

Giants are 11-24 in one-run games, a .314 clip that's more bad luck than bad team — splits like that rarely hold up. Their record is understating them, and I'm not letting it scare me off San Francisco tonight.

Chicago Cubs like to run — William Contreras (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

Contreras has the arm to make Chicago pay, and the Cubs run into it anyway — two real strengths canceling each other out. I'm not taking a strong side on the bases here, I expect it to split.

P Chicago Cubs stole 0 bases

Peter Lambert

Lambert's peripherals like him more than the box score does — a 3.54 xERA against a 3.66 actual ERA means there's room for that number to drop. He backs it up with real swing-and-miss stuff at 8.8 K/9 and isn't giving away free baserunners either at a 1.23 WHIP. Get him at home against the White Sox in the CHW @ HOU matchup and that's about as clean a target start as you'll find sitting on the wire. He's parked in the DEEP tier for a reason, but that's exactly who this is for — deep-league and daily-transaction rosters add him for this start; standard mixed leagues can let this one pass.

Brady Singer

No illusion to strip away here — 4.72 ERA, 5.1 xERA, the two numbers basically agree and neither is good. This isn't hidden quality getting buried by bad luck, it's just a below-average arm performing like one. Tonight's start isn't a referendum, it's just more of the same. Cut — not a regression play, just dead weight on the roster.

Carter Baumler

Ribs, five days out on the roster listing, 3.18 ERA on the books — that's a torso injury, not an arm injury, so I trust this timeline more than most on this list. Decent speculative stash in deeper mixed and holds formats. Still want role clarity before trusting him in a saves-driven league.

Payton Tolle owns a 3.64 ERA at Fenway Park — 2.59 everywhere else

Tolle's home ERA balloons to 3.64 against a 2.59 mark everywhere else, but that's the Monster turning doubles off outs, not hitters finding him — a .233 average against at home says he's not getting hit any harder. Seattle doesn't need loud contact tonight, just enough to reach the wall.

P 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K

Walbert Urena owns a 2.54 ERA at Angel Stadium — 3.57 everywhere else

Angel Stadium plays fairly neutral, so Urena's 2.54 ERA and .185 average against at home isn't the ballpark bailing him out — that's him finding another gear. Yankees get the sharper version of this arm tonight, not the one that's struggled on the road.

P 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 K

Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Connor Wong has caught just 14%

Wong's caught seven of fifty-one on the year, so Seattle running isn't a gamble, it's free bases. A walk and two steals scores the same as a double, and I'd expect Boston's pitcher working from the stretch most of the night because of it.

P Seattle Mariners stole 0 bases

Arizona Diamondbacks like to run — Garrett Stubbs (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

Stubbs controls the running game more than Arizona wants to admit, and the Diamondbacks are going to test him anyway. I like the caught-stealing over the stolen base tonight.

P Arizona Diamondbacks stole 0 bases

Carlos Estevez

Shoulder plus 60-day IL is the injury combo that makes me slow down, and there's no season line here telling me what he looked like beforehand. Low priority. I don't rank a shoulder-injury reliever with zero current numbers ahead of the waiver-wire noise — let him actually pitch first.

Robert Garcia

Same shoulder caution, and he's the furthest out of this whole group at eight days on the listing. At least the 3.38 ERA says he was getting outs before the IL stint. Deep-league watch, not an active stash yet. Shoulder plus a week-plus runway is too much smoke for shallow or medium formats.

BOS have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Boston's scored in the first just once in their last ten, and the board's already leaning hard into it with that under at -140. One of tonight's arms has been especially stingy early, under .230 against, so if a run sneaks through in the first, it's coming from the other dugout.

P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st

Matt Brash

Lat, 60-day IL, eight days from his target date — but a 0.54 ERA is the loudest number in this whole group, hurt or not. STASH — best number in the group; hold the spot and activate the second he's back.

DET have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Detroit's first-inning bats have gone quiet all year, and the arm they're facing keeps the average down even though his ERA reads rough — his damage has come in solo homers, not rallies. I'm leaning toward a scoreless top of the first with any real scoring showing up later.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

CIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Cincinnati's lineup has gone dark in the first all season, and tonight they draw a starter who's been nearly automatic early — sub-1 ERA, hitters near .115 against him in the first. Neither arm is an easy first-inning out, so I'm banking on a clean top of the first before this game finds any scoring.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

SF strike first: 1st-inning runs in 7 of their last 10

Giants have scored first in 7 of their last 10, and Elder's given up his share of early damage. I like San Francisco jumping on Atlanta before their bullpen's even loose.

P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st