Sports Picks Archive — Sunday, August 30, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Marlins· -110

Sunday afternoon at Nationals Park, Washington can clinch the series while Miami tries to halt a two-game slide. The price reflects a close matchup, but the home side has the cleaner combination of lineup matchup and starting pitching. Washington owns a .745 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Miami has a .693 OPS against lefties. Janson Junk has allowed left-handed hitters a .299 average and .798 OPS, which fits Washington’s confirmed lineup. Andrew Alvarez carries a 3.72 season ERA compared with Junk’s 4.21, and the venue splits strengthen that edge: Alvarez has a 4.07 home ERA, while Junk has a 5.12 road ERA. Junk’s 2.30 ERA over his last three starts keeps my confidence measured. The primary concern is the bullpen—Miami’s current relief group has a 3.70 ERA against Washington’s 4.10—but the Nationals have the stronger offensive baseline at 5.2 runs per game and a .755 OPS, compared with Miami’s 4.3 and .724. At this price, I’ll trust Washington’s offense and Alvarez to put the home club in position to finish the job.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· -120

Atlanta closes the series at Truist Park riding six straight wins and looking for the sweep. With the Braves’ moneyline priced at -235, their full-game pitching advantage is best expressed by laying 1.5 runs. Tyler Mahle has a 2.76 ERA across 29.1 August innings and has allowed four earned runs over his last 17.2 innings. Mason Adams counters in only his second MLB start after working four innings on 75 pitches in his debut. That creates a meaningful bullpen component. Colorado used 12.1 relief innings during the first two games, including six pitchers Saturday. Its current relievers carry a 4.56 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, compared with a 2.58 ERA and 1.01 WHIP for Atlanta’s current bullpen. The broader run-prevention gap is similarly pronounced: Atlanta has a 3.56 team ERA, while Colorado sits at 5.52. This is not an automatic cover. Atlanta has averaged only 3.1 runs over its last 10 games, Saturday ended 2-1, and Colorado owns a .756 OPS against right-handed pitching. The Braves’ advantage is therefore less about expecting an offensive eruption and more about Mahle’s recent work, Adams’ limited MLB sample and the separation between the two pitching staffs over nine innings. Braves -1.5 at -120 is the ticket.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Yankees· -142

Sunday afternoon in the Bronx brings a rivalry finale, the season-series tiebreaker, and two clubs coming off a split doubleheader. The wager comes down to the cleaner starting-pitcher profile and the relief support behind it. Ranger Suárez is the separator. He carries a 3.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP against Will Warren’s 4.39 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. The recent comparison points the same way: Suárez has a 3.52 ERA over his last three starts, while Warren is at 6.23. Suárez has also allowed a 4.5% barrel rate and 32.6% hard-hit rate; Warren has allowed 7.9% and 44.5%. Boston’s current bullpen owns a 2.61 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, essentially even with New York’s 2.66 and 1.10, so I do not see a late-inning disadvantage large enough to erase the starting-pitcher edge. Both offenses average 4.5 runs per game, while Boston holds the modest season OPS advantage, .727 to .714. I am taking the moneyline because New York’s bullpen and the volatility of this matchup make laying 1.5 runs unnecessary. Boston has the stronger starting-pitcher case, comparable relief support, and enough offense to make winning outright the proper expression of the read.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Blue Jays· -132

Toronto has taken the first two games at Rogers Centre, while Seattle enters the finale on a three-game slide. This matchup changes sharply on the mound, however, with Logan Gilbert giving the Mariners their clearest path to stopping that run. Gilbert owns a 3.36 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, including a 2.49 road ERA. Over his last three starts, he has a 2.81 ERA with 17 strikeouts and seven walks. Max Scherzer carries a 7.02 ERA and 1.54 WHIP, with a 7.59 ERA at Rogers Centre. His last three starts produced a 6.43 ERA, nine strikeouts and 10 walks. Scherzer’s 2.25 ERA across his last three home starts is the legitimate counterpoint, but his season-long performance and recent command remain the larger concerns. Toronto has the better batting average against right-handed pitching, .254 to .234, while the teams’ OPS figures are nearly identical at .706 and .704. The matchup-specific issue for Scherzer is his .293 average and .897 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters. Seattle’s confirmed lineup includes four left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters. Toronto’s bullpen is the main reason this is a moneyline ticket rather than Mariners -1.5. The Blue Jays’ current relievers own a 3.16 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, compared with Seattle’s 3.95 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, and Toronto’s bullpen supplied five scoreless innings across the first two games. I want Gilbert’s substantial starting-pitcher advantage and Seattle’s lineup configuration, but I do not want to require a multi-run victory against the stronger relief unit.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Royals· -178

Progressive Field gets a series finale with Kansas City chasing a sweep and Cleveland handing the ball to Parker Messick. The Royals controlled the first two games, but this ticket is about today’s pitching alignment rather than extending either team’s streak. Messick owns a 2.50 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, with a 1.96 ERA over his last three starts. Seth Lugo enters with a 4.61 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, including a 6.32 ERA over his last three and a 5.35 road ERA. The contact profiles reinforce that difference: Messick has allowed a 31.7% hard-hit rate and 4.8% barrel rate, compared with Lugo’s 43% and 7.7%. Cleveland also has the better full-season bullpen foundation. Its current relievers carry a 3.16 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, while Kansas City’s are at 4.43 and 1.38. Cade Smith has a 2.40 ERA and 35 saves and did not appear in the first two games. Kansas City’s offense is the reason I’m taking the moneyline instead of laying 1.5 runs. The Royals have scored 6.3 runs per game over their last ten and 11 runs in this series. That form deserves respect, but Messick provides Cleveland with the clearest path to controlling it. I’m backing the superior starter and stronger season-long bullpen without requiring Cleveland’s offense to produce a multi-run margin.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Tigers· -150

The first two games at Comerica Park were matching 2-1 grinders, and the finale carries many of the same low-scoring ingredients. I’m backing Los Angeles, but I want the winner rather than asking the Dodgers to cover 1.5 runs. Tyler Glasnow provides the clearest separator. He owns a 3.02 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, compared with Framber Valdez’s 4.35 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Glasnow also has a 2.33 road ERA, while Valdez has a 4.32 ERA at home. In his return, Glasnow allowed three earned runs over five innings with seven strikeouts and no walks. Valdez has a 5.71 ERA with eight strikeouts and 11 walks across his last three starts. Los Angeles also carries the stronger full-season offense at a .257 average, .757 OPS and 4.9 runs per game, versus Detroit’s .239, .715 and 4.4. Behind the starters, the Dodgers’ current bullpen has a 2.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, compared with Detroit’s 3.56 and 1.33. There are real reasons to avoid the run line: Los Angeles has scored only 2.2 runs per game over its last five, both bullpens have performed well recently, and Glasnow has made only one start following a 111-day gap. Those factors could keep the margin narrow, but the starting-pitching profile, deeper lineup and season-long bullpen advantage make Dodgers moneyline the right ticket.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Padres· -160

The Trop closes this series with two capable starters, two strong bullpens and no weather variable under the roof. Tampa Bay has won the first two games, but the sweep opportunity is not the foundation of this bet; Sunday’s pitching matchup is. Drew Rasmussen is the separator. He enters with a 2.95 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 143 strikeouts against 25 walks in 140.1 innings. Robbie Ray has a 3.21 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with 122 strikeouts against 70 walks in 143.0 innings. The contact numbers reinforce Rasmussen’s advantage: a 6.1% barrel rate and 33.9% hard-hit rate allowed, compared with Ray’s 8.6% and 37.6%. Rasmussen has held right-handed hitters to a .512 OPS and left-handed hitters to .596. Ray has allowed a .717 OPS to right-handed hitters, and Tampa Bay’s confirmed lineup sends up six right-handed bats plus a switch-hitter. San Diego is also playing its first game after Luis Rengifo and Gavin Sheets were placed on the injured list today. There are enough Padres strengths to keep me off Rays -1.5. Ray owns a 2.93 ERA over his last three starts, San Diego has a .708 OPS against right-handed pitching, and its current bullpen carries a 2.25 ERA. That makes the matchup support a Tampa Bay victory more clearly than a multi-run result. I’m paying the -160 for Rasmussen’s superior command and contact profile, backed by a Rays bullpen with a 2.41 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Rays moneyline is the ticket.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Twins· +104

The series finale at Target Field presents a sharp contrast: Chicago will open with Jordan Hicks, while Minnesota turns to Zebby Matthews after dropping the first two games. I’m backing the White Sox at an underdog price, but not laying the extra run. Chicago owns the stronger season-long foundation: a +48 run differential against Minnesota’s -60, alongside a 4.14 team ERA and 1.31 WHIP compared with the Twins’ 4.68 and 1.39. The White Sox bullpen has also thrown nine scoreless innings in this series, while Minnesota’s has allowed two earned runs across nine innings. The lineup matchup is the separator. Matthews has allowed left-handed hitters a .280 average and .828 OPS. Chicago starts five left-handed hitters and two switch hitters. Hicks, meanwhile, has held left-handed hitters to .232/.679 and right-handed hitters to .242/.716. Matthews’ 3.14 home ERA and 3.06 ERA over his last three starts keep this from being a high-confidence play. Hicks’ opener role also leaves uncertainty after the first inning. That is why the moneyline fits better than Chicago -1.5: I want the superior season profile and lineup matchup without requiring a multi-run result.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· -120

A hot afternoon at Busch Stadium, the wind carrying out to left, and a tied divisional series comes down to a pronounced pitching gap. Pittsburgh has the starter I trust more and the stronger relief group behind him. Braxton Ashcraft brings a 3.59 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, with three earned runs across his last 23 innings. Matthew Liberatore owns a 5.44 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, allowing 13 earned runs over his last 15.1 innings. The location splits reinforce that separation: Ashcraft has a 2.25 ERA across his last three road starts, while Liberatore has an 11.37 ERA across his last three at home. The bullpen makes the moneyline more attractive. Pittsburgh’s current relief group has a 3.08 ERA and 1.17 WHIP; St. Louis’ has a 4.13 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Over the last 10 days, those ERAs are 1.70 for Pittsburgh and 7.97 for St. Louis. I am choosing the moneyline instead of laying 1.5 because Pittsburgh has struggled against left-handed starters, going 13-30 with a .678 OPS, and has averaged only 2.6 runs over its last 10 games. Liberatore’s own results soften that concern—opponents have an .847 OPS from the left side and .803 from the right—but the Pirates’ recent scoring still makes a two-run requirement unnecessarily ambitious. Back Ashcraft and the better bullpen to win the game at a manageable price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rangers· -154

Milwaukee is one win from a sweep at American Family Field, while Texas reaches the end of a six-game road trip carrying four straight losses. Those streaks set the scene, but the matchup—not momentum—is the bet. The clearest game-specific advantage is Milwaukee’s six left-handed hitters against Kumar Rocker. The Brewers bat .261 with a .752 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Rocker has allowed lefties a .283 average and .839 OPS, compared with .219/.641 against righties. Rocker has improved to a 4.02 ERA over his last three starts, but he also issued nine walks in 15.2 innings. Dustin May is not a decisive starting-pitcher advantage. He owns a 4.56 season ERA and a 5.87 August ERA, while Texas brings four left-handed hitters against his .274 average and .748 OPS allowed to that side. That uncertainty is why I prefer Milwaukee’s moneyline to laying -1.5. The firmer separation comes from the complete team profiles and bullpens. Milwaukee averages 5.0 runs per game with a .736 OPS, compared with Texas at 4.0 and .711. The Brewers’ current bullpen owns a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP; the Rangers’ group is at 3.67 and 1.35. Over the last seven days, those ERAs are 1.73 and 7.45. That recent window is not a guarantee, but it reinforces Milwaukee’s season-long relief advantage. Texas has enough favorable pieces to make this competitive, especially against an uneven May. Milwaukee nevertheless has the stronger lineup matchup and the more dependable path through the later innings. Brewers ML -154 is the ticket.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Astros· -120

A tied Sunday series at Citi Field comes down to two inexperienced starters with dramatically different bodies of work behind them. Zac Thornton has delivered a 2.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 56.1 innings. He completed six innings with one earned run and no walks in his latest start. Ethan Pecko enters with a 7.88 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and seven walks through eight MLB innings, failing to complete five innings in either start. That sample is extremely thin, but it still leaves Houston carrying considerably more uncertainty on the mound. Pecko has allowed left-handed hitters a 1.019 OPS through 19 at-bats. New York can counter with four left-handed hitters plus switch-hitting Francisco Lindor, including Juan Soto at DH. Soto owns a 1.021 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Jared Young is at .807 and Carson Benge at .773. The bullpen comparison reinforces the starting-pitching edge. The Mets’ current relievers have a 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, with a 2.50 ERA over the last five days. Houston’s group has a 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but its recent ERA rises to 5.66 over five days and 6.81 over ten. Houston’s seven right-handed starters are the legitimate counterargument because Thornton has allowed a .749 OPS to right-handed batters. The Astros also own the better season-long offensive OPS, .725 to .694. Those concerns keep me away from laying 1.5 runs, but they do not outweigh the separation between the starters and recent bullpens. The moneyline is the right expression of the Mets edge.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Athletics· -144

It is a getaway afternoon in West Sacramento, with Baltimore trying to finish a sweep after two competitive games. The matchup favors the Orioles, but the way this series has played calls for the moneyline rather than laying 1.5 runs. Jeffrey Springs is the central reason. He enters with a 6.08 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 6.71 home ERA. Over his last three starts, he has a 5.02 ERA with six strikeouts and 10 walks in 14.1 innings. Baltimore counters with six right-handed hitters and switch-hitter Leody Taveras; Coby Mayo owns a 1.126 OPS against left-handers, while Christian Encarnacion-Strand is at 1.142. Chris Bassitt’s recent form is stronger than his full-season line. His three starts since returning have produced a 3.06 ERA, 14 strikeouts and four walks over 17.2 innings. Baltimore also carries the better bullpen profile: a 3.92 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, compared with Oakland’s 4.34 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. There is enough resistance to avoid the run line. Oakland starts four left-handed hitters against Bassitt, who has allowed a .936 OPS to lefties, and Rico Garcia, Yennier Cano, Andrew Kittredge and Alex Hoppe have all pitched on consecutive days. Baltimore’s first two wins in this series were 4-3 in 10 innings and 5-3. The Orioles have the better path to winning, but the evidence does not require another multi-run margin.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Angels· -172

Sunday afternoon at Angel Stadium, Philadelphia is trying to finish the sweep while Los Angeles is trying to stop a six-game losing streak. The first two games were competitive, so I’m backing the stronger side to win without requiring it to clear 1.5 runs. Zack Wheeler’s recent form is the risk: 14 earned runs in 14.0 innings across his last three starts. His larger body of work is still considerably stronger than Yusei Kikuchi’s—Wheeler has a 3.40 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 124.1 innings, while Kikuchi has a 6.25 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over 36.0 innings. Kikuchi has made only one start since a 116-day gap and allowed five earned runs in five innings upon returning. The handedness setup reinforces that advantage. The Angels start six right-handed hitters, and Wheeler has held righties to a .185 average and .562 OPS. Philadelphia also starts six righties against Kikuchi, who has allowed right-handed hitters a .294 average and .871 OPS. At the team level, the Phillies carry a .700 OPS against left-handed pitching, compared with the Angels’ .681 OPS against right-handers. Philadelphia’s current bullpen owns a 3.43 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, versus 3.81 and 1.34 for Los Angeles. Over the last five days, that comparison is 2.70 against 6.62. Jhoan Duran and Jonathan Bowlan have already thrown 42 and 49 pitches in this series, respectively, which lowers my appetite for the run line. The moneyline keeps the bet aligned with the broader starting-pitcher, matchup and bullpen advantages while respecting Wheeler’s current volatility.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Reds· -154

Wrigley gets the rubber match after Cincinnati’s 10-8 opener and Chicago’s 17-5 response. Chase Burns gives the Reds a legitimate starting-pitching advantage, but the full nine-inning profile puts me on the Cubs. Burns enters with a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, compared with Shota Imanaga’s 3.78 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. His recent context is less imposing, however: Burns has a 3.53 road ERA, a 4.33 ERA in August, and a 6.43 ERA across his last three road starts. Imanaga has his own warning signs, including a 5.68 ERA over his last three starts and a two-inning outing last time out. Neither starter makes the run line attractive. Chicago holds the stronger offensive baseline, averaging 5.3 runs per game with a .767 OPS; Cincinnati averages 4.1 with a .701 OPS. Against tonight’s handedness, the Cubs have a .752 OPS versus right-handed pitching, while the Reds have a .732 OPS versus lefties. The supporting phases also favor Chicago. The Cubs’ current bullpen has a 3.79 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, compared with Cincinnati’s 4.09 and 1.30. Over the last ten days, those ERAs are 5.00 and 6.75, respectively. Chicago also carries a .990 fielding percentage with 51 errors, versus Cincinnati’s .985 with 74. Burns and Imanaga’s recent form leave enough volatility that I do not want Chicago -1.5. I’m paying for the home moneyline and backing the Cubs’ deeper offense, better season-long relief profile, and cleaner defense to decide the game beyond the starting matchup.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

ANDREW ALVAREZK'S OVER 3.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -155

Alvarez has recorded at least four strikeouts in each of his last three starts, including six over 4.2 innings last time out. His curveball and slider both generate whiff rates above 33%, and Miami is starting five hitters with season strikeout rates above 20%. The short leash is the concern, but he has repeatedly cleared this number without completing five innings.

GARY'S PICK

ESTEURY RUIZSB OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +260

Ruiz has stolen 29 bases in only 161 at-bats, so he does not need multiple opportunities to cash this. Andrew Alvarez has allowed seven successful steals in 11 attempts, and Ruiz owns a .361 on-base percentage while hitting left-handers well. This is naturally volatile, but the matchup makes +260 worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

MASON ADAMSPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +102

Adams needs to complete five innings to beat this line, something he did not do in his debut. He required 75 pitches to record 12 outs, and Colorado has kept him below 80 pitches in every start this season while managing his workload following Tommy John surgery. The Rockies would love length after Saturday's bullpen game, but that need does not erase the workload ceiling. Against a deep Atlanta lineup, plus money on Adams exiting before the end of the fifth is the play.

GARY'S PICK

HA-SEONG KIMHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +105

Kim has seven hits in 83 at-bats this season and has recorded a hit in only two of his last 15 games. Batting ninth also limits his opportunity, particularly if Atlanta controls the game without turning the lineup over five times. Colorado's pitching creates risk, but Kim is still being asked to clear a standard one-hit line despite a .084 average. Getting plus money on the under is enough for me.

GARY'S PICK

WILL WARRENPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +102

Warren has completed more than five innings in only two of his last eight starts, and his recent performance does not justify plus money on another early exit. He owns a 6.23 ERA with eight walks across his last three outings, while his August ERA sits at 5.89. Boston adds Roman Anthony and Trevor Story to a lineup already capable of making Warren work. His 1.42 WHIP and vulnerable sinker-sweeper combination create multiple paths to a short afternoon, and five full innings still cashes this under.

GARY'S PICK

RANGER SUAREZPITCHER OUTS UNDER 17.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -131

Suárez has recorded 18 outs in only one of his last eight starts. He has not completed six innings in any of his last six, topping out at 5 1/3 while averaging fewer than five innings per appearance over that stretch. Boston also has its preferred late-inning options available, including a fresh Aroldis Chapman and a recently returned Garrett Whitlock. In a high-leverage rivalry finale, I expect a quick move once Suárez approaches the third trip through the order.

GARY'S PICK

PARKER MESSICKPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 1.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· -110

Messick has allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his last eight starts, including one in each of his last two. His 31.7% hard-hit rate and 4.8% barrel rate show why that suppression has been sustainable, while his four-seamer and changeup have held hitters to a .224 and .220 xwOBA. Kansas City is hot, but Messick has the arsenal and current form to limit the damage before Cleveland turns the game over to its bullpen.

GARY'S PICK

SETH LUGOPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 5.5

MLBKansas City Royals· -110

Cleveland can send seven hitters to the plate from the left side against a pitcher allowing left-handed bats a .292 average and .808 OPS. Lugo has surrendered six, nine and seven hits over his last three starts, and his 43% hard-hit rate leaves little margin when his command is not sharp. His sinker and four-seamer have produced a .424 and .412 xwOBA, respectively. I expect Cleveland to make enough contact to collect six hits before Lugo exits.

GARY'S PICK

MAX SCHERZERPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -146

Scherzer has issued at least two walks in six of his last eight starts, including 10 walks across his last 14 innings. His season rate stands at 25 walks in 50 innings, and Seattle averages 3.36 walks per game. This lineup has enough patient hitters to extend counts, and the recent command makes over 1.5 playable even at -146.

GARY'S PICK

JOSH NAYLORSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -115

Naylor has recorded a single in 12 of his last 15 games and is batting .309 in August. The matchup is favorable from the left side: Scherzer has allowed left-handed hitters a .293 average and .897 OPS. Toronto's main late-inning relievers are also right-handed, so the platoon advantage can remain after Scherzer exits. At -115, I want Naylor to produce one ordinary single.

GARY'S PICK

FRAMBER VALDEZPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -148

Valdez has issued at least two walks in seven of his last eight starts, including 11 walks against only eight strikeouts across his last 17.1 innings. That declining command runs into a patient Dodgers lineup featuring Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Kyle Tucker. His primary sinker generates limited chase, so two walks is a reasonable threshold even if he works only five or six innings.

GARY'S PICK

MIGUEL ROJASHITS OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -162

Rojas is starting sixth because of this left-handed matchup, and he has delivered a .311 average and .829 OPS across 119 at-bats against lefties this season. Valdez has allowed a .261 average overall, while opponents are batting .307 against his sinker. Rojas also puts the ball in play consistently, with only 21 strikeouts in 181 at-bats. I’m laying the price for one hit.

GARY'S PICK

DREW RASMUSSENPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +110

I’m backing Rasmussen to finish six innings. He has recorded at least 18 outs in four of his last six starts and was allowed a season-high 103 pitches last time out. His 0.93 WHIP and excellent results against both right- and left-handed hitters reduce the risk of an early hook. San Diego is also playing its first game without Luis Rengifo and Gavin Sheets, while Kevin Kelly has worked both games of this series. That gives Tampa Bay an additional reason to seek length from Rasmussen. At plus money, 18 outs is the right threshold.

GARY'S PICK

ROBBIE RAYK'S OVER 3.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -148

Four strikeouts is a modest assignment for Ray, who has reached that mark in seven of his last eight starts. Tampa Bay is a contact-oriented club, but this lineup still gives him targets: Jonathan Aranda, Ryan Vilade, Jorge Mateo and Taylor Walls all carry meaningful strikeout rates. Ray’s slider has a 34.9% whiff rate and his knuckle curve is at 36.5%. Those secondary pitches should give him enough swing-and-miss opportunities to clear this before the Padres need to turn the game over to their bullpen.

GARY'S PICK

JORDAN HICKSPITCHER OUTS UNDER 3.5

MLBChicago White Sox· -118

Hicks is opening, not making a conventional start. His only start this season lasted exactly one inning, and his most recent appearance was another one-inning assignment four days ago. The under cashes if Chicago follows that same plan and removes him after three outs. The bullpen workload creates some extension risk, but four outs is still too aggressive for the role Hicks has actually been filling.

GARY'S PICK

MIGUEL VARGASWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +129

Vargas has drawn a walk in 13 of his last 15 games, including one in each of the first two games of this series. His 84 walks and .363 on-base percentage show that this is a season-long skill, not merely a short streak. Batting third should give him four or five opportunities, and Minnesota's bullpen carries a 1.37 WHIP if Zebby Matthews leaves before the late innings. I like getting plus money on Vargas' best offensive trait.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE BAUERSWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -112

Bauers has drawn a walk in 12 of his last 15 games and owns a .388 on-base percentage. That patience fits this matchup: Kumar Rocker has issued nine walks across his last three starts, and Milwaukee averages 4.12 walks per game. Batting third should also give Bauers four realistic chances to cash this.

GARY'S PICK

CHRISTIAN YELICHH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -110

Yelich has cleared this number in nine of his last 15 games and enters Sunday 5-for-8 in the series. Rocker has allowed left-handed hitters a .283 average and .839 OPS, while his sinker, cutter and four-seam fastball have all produced vulnerable contact numbers. Yelich is seeing the ball well enough to contribute in multiple categories from the fifth spot.

GARY'S PICK

MATTHEW LIBERATOREPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +112

I’m taking plus money against a starter who has allowed 13 earned runs in his last 15.1 innings and owns a 5.97 ERA at Busch Stadium. Liberatore’s fastball, changeup and sinker have all been hit hard, and Pittsburgh can attack him with five right-handed bats plus two switch-hitters. He has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last eight starts, including four against Pittsburgh earlier this season.

GARY'S PICK

BRAXTON ASHCRAFTPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -139

I need Ashcraft to complete six innings, something he has done in each of his last three starts while working 23 innings and allowing only three earned runs. His efficiency has been excellent, and this diminished St. Louis lineup is without JJ Wetherholt and Blaze Jordan. The Cardinals have also scored only three runs through the first two games against Pittsburgh’s primary pitchers, giving Ashcraft a clean path to another six-plus inning afternoon.

GARY'S PICK

ETHAN PECKOPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBHouston Astros· +102

Pecko has recorded only 11 and 13 outs in his first two MLB starts while throwing 89 and 88 pitches. Seven walks in eight innings have kept him from working efficiently, and now he faces a Mets lineup with Juan Soto and several left-handed bats. Lefties have produced a 1.019 OPS against Pecko, albeit in a small sample. I only need New York to extend at-bats and get him out before he completes the fifth. Getting plus money makes the under worthwhile.

GARY'S PICK

JARED YOUNGHITS OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· -156

Young has recorded a hit in 11 of his last 15 games and is batting .278 with an .807 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also enters after collecting three hits against Houston on Saturday. Pecko has allowed left-handed hitters a 1.019 OPS through his first two starts, and Young should receive multiple chances against him from the fifth spot. The price is not cheap, but the matchup and Young's recent contact give him a strong path to one hit.

GARY'S PICK

JEFFREY SPRINGSK'S UNDER 4.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -105

Springs has exceeded four strikeouts once in his last eight starts and has recorded four or fewer in six straight. His changeup is the only consistent bat-misser in a mix led by a 91.4 mph fastball with a 15.1% whiff rate. Baltimore's strikeout tendency is the risk, but Springs has completed five innings only twice in his last six starts. At nearly even money, I'm betting he runs out of outs before finding a fifth strikeout.

GARY'S PICK

LAWRENCE BUTLERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBOakland Athletics· +135

Bassitt's full-season weakness is pronounced against left-handed hitters: a .335 average, .936 OPS and all eight home runs he has allowed. Butler enters with a .375 average and 1.042 OPS over his last 15 days, has exceeded this line in nine of his last 15 games and is 4-for-9 against Bassitt. He is also seeing the zone well, drawing three walks in this series. Batting cleanup with Baltimore's main late-inning arms coming off consecutive workdays, Butler has multiple paths to two bases at an attractive price.

GARY'S PICK

YUSEI KIKUCHIPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -102

Kikuchi has completed six innings in only two of eight starts, including just one of his last six. He needed 89 pitches to record 15 outs in his first start following a 116-day absence, and this is only his second start back. Philadelphia is sending six right-handed hitters at him. Righties have produced a .294 average and .871 OPS against Kikuchi, while his slider and splitter have both allowed damaging contact. The Angels' recent bullpen workload could lengthen his leash, but at essentially even money, I'm betting the Phillies make that sixth inning difficult to reach.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE HARPERWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +120

Harper has drawn a walk in 11 of his last 15 games and took three free passes Saturday. His 97 walks and .386 on-base percentage show that this is a season-long skill, not merely a short hot streak. Kikuchi has issued 15 walks in 36 innings and is making only his second start after a lengthy absence. Harper should receive four or five opportunities from the third spot, and plus money is attractive for a hitter who has been reaching without needing a hit nearly every night.

THE LONG SHOT

SAL STEWARTHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +290

Stewart is seeing the ball well, with two homers in this series and four over his last 15 games. He owns a .919 OPS against left-handed pitching and has already taken Imanaga deep in six career at-bats. Imanaga has allowed 30 homers this season, and eight of the nine recent scoring plays against him came by way of the long ball. With the wind expected to help carry the ball at Wrigley, +290 is enough for me.

THE LONG SHOT

MATT MCLAINHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +550

I’m buying the price, not McLain's ugly series. He has five homers in 85 August at-bats, four in 82 at-bats against lefties this season and one in seven career at-bats against Imanaga. The Cubs lefty has been particularly vulnerable to home runs lately, and McLain still has the bat speed to punish a misplaced fastball or sweeper. At +550, the matchup gives me enough upside to take the swing.

GARY'S PICK

SAL STEWARTRBI OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +153

I’m taking the plus price on Cincinnati’s best run producer. Stewart has 104 RBIs, has driven in a run in nine of his last 15 games, and has collected two RBIs in each game of this series. He owns a .919 OPS against left-handed pitching and is 3-for-6 with a homer against Shota Imanaga. Imanaga has allowed 30 home runs, including 20 to right-handed hitters, while eight of the last nine scoring plays against him have come via the long ball. With Dane Myers and Elly De La Cruz setting the table, +153 is too generous.

GARY'S PICK

SHOTA IMANAGAPITCHER OUTS UNDER 16.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -114

I need Imanaga gone before he completes the sixth. He has stayed under this number in four of his last eight starts and has averaged just over four innings across his four August outings. Last time out, diminished velocity and scattered command forced him from the game after 72 pitches and only six outs. Cincinnati’s first three hitters all own an OPS above .800 against lefties, giving the Reds a path to early traffic and extended innings. Chicago also has rested late-inning options available, so Craig Counsell does not need to force length from Imanaga if the same warning signs return.

Research

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CUT LISTHOU tonight
Ethan Pecko
An 8.64 xERA says Ethan Pecko’s 7.88 ERA isn’t just bad luck. With another start tonight, I’m not giving those ratios another chance to hurt me. CUT
TEAM RECORDSD @ TB
Rays 7-0 in Drew Rasmussen's last 7 starts
Seven straight wins behind Rasmussen makes Tampa Bay one of tonight’s cleanest starter trends. I’m comfortable backing the Rays to keep finishing the job at home against San Diego.
HEAD-TO-HEADMIA @ WSH
Marlins are 11-5 vs Nationals this season
Miami’s 11-5 season edge matters, but Washington winning the latest meeting keeps me from treating it as dominance. I lean Marlins, though the series record is only supporting evidence.
TEAM RECORDBOS @ NYY
Red Sox 7-1 in Ranger Suarez's last 8 starts
Boston has won seven of the last eight on Suarez’s days, and that kind of support deserves respect. I give the Red Sox the stronger side of this rivalry spot tonight.
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ NYY
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Goldschmidt gets Suarez from his preferred side and leads off, guaranteeing maximum exposure. That combination gives the Yankees an immediate advantage at the top.
P 3-for-6, 6 TB
TEAM RECORDPHI @ LAA
Angels 1-7 in Yusei Kikuchi's last 8 starts
The Angels are 1-7 across Kikuchi’s last eight starts, and their five-game skid only adds to the concern. Philadelphia is the side I trust more tonight.
PLATOON EDGEBAL @ OAK
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Mayo’s 1.126 platoon mark against lefties lands in the cleanup spot tonight. With Springs giving him his preferred matchup, he can do real damage if Baltimore puts traffic ahead of him.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGEKC @ CLE
Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Seth Lugo (RHP), batting 5th
Nathaniel Lowe gets his preferred side against Seth Lugo and a useful RBI seat in the fifth spot. I’m interested in Lowe’s total bases or run-production markets.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKCHW @ MIN
Tristan Peters: 1.362 OPS in Last 15 Days
Peters is scorching hot, but a 1.362 OPS is an overheated pace. I’m not chasing his over unless the line gives him an easy path without requiring extra-base damage.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADCOL @ ATL
Braves are 5-0 vs Rockies this season
Atlanta’s 5-0 sweep of Colorado reinforces its control of this matchup. It supports the Braves tonight, but I’m not making the season series the whole handicap.
STREAKPIT @ STL
PIT games have gone UNDER 7 straight
Seven straight Pittsburgh games have stayed under, and tonight’s larger total gives the trend extra room. Unless these offenses suddenly create a very different game, the under remains the natural lean.
P final total 9 vs 11.5
FANTASY PICKUPSHOU @ NYM
Jared Young
Jared Young is batting fifth with a .272 average and .780 OPS, and he gets struggling Ethan Pecko and his 8.64 xERA tonight. That’s an immediate add for me. Must-add for anyone needing a first baseman or tonight’s offense.
PLATOON EDGETEX @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Turang leads off with Rocker giving him his much stronger handedness matchup. He is positioned to reach base early and receive every possible chance as Milwaukee turns the order over.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
FANTASY PICKUPSHOU @ NYM
Carson Benge
Carson Benge is batting cleanup with a .279 average and .765 OPS against struggling Ethan Pecko, who carries an 8.64 xERA. I want that lineup spot today. Must-add for anyone needing an outfielder or a hitter tonight.
HEAT CHECKCHW @ MIN
Miguel Vargas: 1.319 OPS in Last 15 Days
Vargas’ surge has real power behind it, so this does not feel like empty short-term production. One extra-base hit clears the path, making his total-bases over attractive against Minnesota.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
BULLPENCIN @ CHC
Cincinnati Reds pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Cincinnati’s bullpen has absorbed 14 innings in three games and is short on trustworthy options tonight. If the Cubs push the starter out early, Chicago should own the later innings.
PLATOON EDGEBAL @ OAK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (bats R) hits 5th against Jeffrey Springs (LHP)
Encarnacion-Strand owns a 1.142 mark in this lefty matchup and bats fifth tonight. Springs brings out his most dangerous split, with a good chance for runners to be waiting.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STARTER FORMPHI @ LAA
Zack Wheeler: 9.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
A 9.00 ERA over Wheeler’s last three starts says his current vulnerability is real. The Angels have a chance to create traffic early and do damage before his reputation scares the market away.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Braxton Ashcraft (RHP)
Burleson’s .957 mark in this split belongs in the heart of the order. Batting third against the right-handed Ashcraft gives him a clean opportunity to drive an inning.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
TEAM RECORDMIA @ WSH
Nationals 2-6 in Andrew Alvarez's last 8 starts
Washington has lost six of Alvarez’s last eight starts, and the pattern is still moving the wrong way. Miami enters with the more dependable path to a win.
TEAM RECORDSEA @ TOR
Mariners 6-2 in Logan Gilbert's last 8 starts
Seattle has won six of Gilbert’s last eight starts by giving him enough support and protecting his work. That makes the Mariners the more appealing side against Toronto.
TEAM RECORDSEA @ TOR
Blue Jays 2-6 in Max Scherzer's last 8 starts
Toronto is only 2-6 over Scherzer’s last eight starts, so his name is carrying more confidence than the results warrant. I’m cautious about backing the Blue Jays tonight.
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ WSH
Andres Chaparro (bats R) draws Janson Junk (RHP), batting 3rd
Andres Chaparro’s reverse split makes the right-on-right matchup with Janson Junk a positive, not a warning. Batting third puts his total bases and RBI markets in play.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADTEX @ MIL
Brewers are 4-0 vs Rangers this season
Milwaukee’s four wins in four meetings show it can repeatedly solve Texas. I respect the Brewers’ edge, but the small season series is confirmation rather than the reason for my bet.
COOLING OFFTEX @ MIL
Brandon Nimmo: .349 OPS in Last 15 Days
Nimmo’s .349 OPS reflects a hitter whose timing has disappeared, not merely bad luck. I’m staying on the under side of his total-base markets until the contact improves.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/24
Tyler Glasnow
Tyler Glasnow carried a 2.49 xERA into a road two-step against Atlanta on Tuesday and Detroit on Sunday. That's the kind of profile I build the week around. PLAN AROUND
TEAM RECORDCIN @ CHC
Cubs 6-2 in Shota Imanaga's last 8 starts
Chicago is 6-2 across Shota Imanaga's last eight starts and has won four straight on his days. That established winning rhythm is a meaningful reason to trust the Cubs at home.
TEAM RECORDPIT @ STL
Pirates 6-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 8 starts
Pittsburgh has won six of Ashcraft’s last eight starts and enters with the cleaner starting-pitching setup. I trust the Pirates more than the venue might initially suggest.
TEAM RECORDPIT @ STL
Cardinals 2-6 in Matthew Liberatore's last 8 starts
St. Louis is only 2-6 in Liberatore’s last eight starts, and the slide remains active. That makes the Cardinals difficult to trust against Pittsburgh tonight.
TEAM RECORDLAD @ DET
Dodgers 6-2 in Tyler Glasnow's last 8 starts
The Dodgers have won six of Glasnow’s last eight starts, consistently giving him enough support to finish the job. His turn provides Los Angeles a solid path to control this game in Detroit.
TEAM RECORDKC @ CLE
Royals 6-2 in Seth Lugo's last 8 starts
Kansas City is 6-2 in Lugo’s last eight starts and has repeatedly converted his work into wins. That gives the Royals a dependable foundation in Cleveland tonight.
COOLING OFFLAD @ DET
Dillon Dingler: .360 OPS in Last 15 Days
Dingler’s .360 OPS has lasted long enough to signal a genuine timing problem. Against Los Angeles, I prefer his hitter unders over betting on an immediate recovery.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ LAA
Wade Meckler (bats L) hits 1st against Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Meckler leads off and gets the right-handed version of Wheeler, giving him the platoon side he prefers. Wheeler remains a demanding assignment, but the lineup spot maximizes Meckler’s opportunity.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
FANTASY PICKUPSHOU @ NYM
Luis Robert Jr.
Luis Robert Jr.’s .228 average and .716 OPS haven’t overwhelmed, but tonight he gets struggling Ethan Pecko and his 8.64 xERA. That matchup makes Robert an add. Must-add for managers needing outfield help or tonight’s upside.
COOLING OFFHOU @ NYM
A.J. Ewing: .299 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ewing’s .299 OPS shows a bat that is genuinely stuck. I’m keeping expectations low tonight and leaning toward his unders against Houston.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
STREAKLAD @ DET
DET games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Detroit games have stayed under five straight times, but a 5.5 total leaves almost no margin. I respect the run while recognizing that even modest offense could end it tonight.
P final total 7 vs 5.5
HEAT CHECKBAL @ OAK
Lawrence Butler: 1.047 OPS in Last 15 Days
Butler’s 1.047 OPS is a meaningful surge, but it remains well above the level he established over the full season. I only want his over if the price rewards the risk and the line emphasizes extra-base damage.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
STREAKPHI @ LAA
LAA have lost 5 straight
Five straight losses and a 3-7 stretch show the Angels’ trouble extends beyond one bad series. Philadelphia gives them another immediate test with little reason to assume the slide simply stops.
P team lost 5-2
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ WSH
Agustin Ramirez (bats R) hits 3rd against Andrew Alvarez (LHP)
Agustin Ramirez gets the platoon edge against Andrew Alvarez while hitting third. I want exposure through his hit, total-base or RBI markets.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKSEA @ TOR
Cal Raleigh: 1.111 OPS in Last 15 Days
Raleigh’s power makes the hot streak credible, but a 1.111 OPS is still an aggressive pace to chase. His total-bases over needs Toronto to give him something hittable because walks will not help.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
COOLING OFFTEX @ MIL
Gary Sanchez: .157 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kumar Rocker
Sanchez’s .157 OPS over the last 15 days is too severe to dismiss as simple bad luck. Rocker keeps him on his weaker side, leaving little matchup help for a turnaround tonight.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADPIT @ STL
Cardinals are 7-4 vs Pirates this season
St. Louis leads the season series 7-4, but Pittsburgh’s convincing latest win keeps that record in perspective. The Cardinals’ edge is background information rather than a standalone bet.
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs Logan Gilbert: .350
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit Logan Gilbert well enough to make this a real rebound spot despite his recent slump. I’m interested in Guerrero to record a hit or clear a modest total-base line.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
TWO STARTSCleveland Guardians — week of 8/24
Parker Messick
Parker Messick's week ran through the Angels on Monday and the Royals at home Sunday. With a 2.91 xERA, he belonged in the plan for both starts. PLAN AROUND
COOLING OFFBAL @ OAK
Zack Gelof: .482 OPS in Last 15 Days
Zack Gelof’s .482 OPS over 15 days points to a swing that remains out of sync. With no matchup boost, his offensive unders are more attractive than a speculative rebound.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
COOLING OFFPIT @ STL
Spencer Horwitz: .368 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Matthew Liberatore
Spencer Horwitz enters with a .368 OPS over the last 15 days, and Matthew Liberatore attacks his clearly weaker side. That makes an already difficult stretch even harder to escape tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADCIN @ CHC
Cubs are 7-4 vs Reds this season
The Cubs’ 7-4 season advantage over Cincinnati has been earned across a useful sample. It strengthens Chicago’s case tonight, although I’m not giving the latest blowout extra predictive weight.
HEAD-TO-HEADCHW @ MIN
White Sox are 6-3 vs Twins this season
Chicago’s 6-3 record against Minnesota gives the White Sox a legitimate season-series edge. I use it as support tonight, not as a substitute for evaluating the pitching matchup.
HEAD-TO-HEADPHI @ LAA
Phillies are 3-0 vs Angels this season
Philadelphia swept the first three meetings, but that is still a short sample without a clear matchup driver. With the setting shifting to Los Angeles, I treat the sweep as background rather than a decisive edge.
HEAT CHECKBAL @ OAK
Pete Alonso: 1.158 OPS in Last 15 Days
Alonso’s recent production is supported by the power he has shown all season. Against Oakland, one mistake can cash his total-bases over, and that is a straightforward angle for me.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKKC @ CLE
Vinnie Pasquantino: 1.133 OPS in Last 15 Days
Vinnie Pasquantino’s 1.133 OPS makes his current contact worth backing, while over 0.5 total bases asks for only one hit. That is a much better play than chasing a home run.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKPHI @ LAA
Alec Bohm: 1.051 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bohm is seeing the ball well, but a 1.051 OPS is too far above his season level to call the new normal. His over is playable only if I’m comfortable betting on another gap shot or multi-hit game.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFMIA @ WSH
CJ Abrams: .461 OPS in Last 15 Days
Abrams is clearly cold, but this is also the kind of short window that can reverse quickly for a capable hitter. I would not sell him at the bottom if the market has already made the slump expensive.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGESEA @ TOR
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 5th against Logan Gilbert (RHP)
Nathan Lukes gets the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert and hits fifth in a run-producing spot. He is a live candidate for a hit or RBI opportunity.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
COOLING OFFMIA @ WSH
Nasim Nunez: .217 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Janson Junk
Nasim Nunez has produced almost no offensive floor during this .217 OPS stretch. Another right-hander keeps him in his weaker split and gives me no reason to chase a turnaround.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
COOLING OFFSEA @ TOR
Julio Rodriguez: .450 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rodriguez’s .450 OPS tells me the timing is off, even if he is not as buried as some other cold bats tonight. I’m cautious with his power props without treating him like an automatic fade.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TWO STARTSPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/24
Zack Wheeler
Zack Wheeler drew two road assignments: Seattle on Monday and the Angels on Sunday. His 3.03 xERA made this a straightforward two-start play. PLAN AROUND
COOLING OFFMIA @ WSH
Griffin Conine: .469 OPS in Last 15 Days
Conine’s .469 OPS points to a real loss of rhythm, despite a season profile that leaves room for a rebound. For tonight, I still prefer staying beneath his offensive ceiling.
P 0-for-0, 0 TB, 2 BB
COOLING OFFCHW @ MIN
Royce Lewis: .417 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jordan Hicks
Royce Lewis brings a .417 OPS skid into a matchup with the handedness that has troubled him. I’m treating this as a continuation spot and looking toward his unders.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
COOLING OFFHOU @ NYM
Francisco Alvarez: .280 OPS in Last 15 Days
Alvarez’s .280 OPS is the strongest cold-bat signal on the board. I’m firmly interested in his total-bases and extra-base-hit unders against Houston.
P 0-for-0, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKCIN @ CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.210 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pete Crow-Armstrong's 1.210 OPS is a heater supported by elite season-long production. Over 1.5 total bases gives him both power and multi-hit routes against Cincinnati.
P 2-for-5, 8 TB
TWO STARTSCincinnati Reds — week of 8/24
Chase Burns
Chase Burns faced a full road week, drawing San Francisco on Monday and the Cubs on Sunday. The 3.17 xERA kept him firmly in my weekly plans. PLAN AROUND
CLOSER WATCHBAL @ OAK
Ryan Helsley / Andrew Kittredge
Baltimore is favored at Oakland, and Ryan Helsley is fully rested, so tonight is a live save spot. But Andrew Kittredge is only one save behind with nine holds, making this a real committee. Hold Helsley, but roster Kittredge where possible; saves could go to either arm this week.
TWO STARTSTampa Bay Rays — week of 8/24
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen had Detroit on the road Monday and San Diego at home Sunday. A 3.14 xERA gave me no reason to get cute with either turn. PLAN AROUND
PLATOON EDGELAD @ DET
Miguel Rojas (bats R) draws Framber Valdez (LHP), batting 6th
Miguel Rojas gets his stronger side against Framber Valdez and bats sixth where the Dodgers can still create traffic for him. A modest hit or total-base prop is worth consideration.
P 1-for-2, 2 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSHOU @ NYM
Francisco Lindor
Francisco Lindor is leading off against struggling Ethan Pecko, whose xERA sits at 8.64. Even with a .234 average and .738 OPS, that combination makes him an obvious add. Must-add for everyone; get him into your lineup tonight.
STREAKTEX @ MIL
MIL have won 4 straight
Milwaukee has won four straight while creating meaningful scoreboard separation. A struggling Texas club fits the same profile the Brewers have been exploiting.
P team lost 7-4
STREAKTEX @ MIL
TEX have lost 4 straight
Texas has lost four straight with too much of the damage coming in decisive fashion. Facing a Milwaukee team winning comfortably makes this a difficult place to stop the slide.
P team won 7-4
COOLING OFFCOL @ ATL
Jake McCarthy: .560 OPS in Last 15 Days
McCarthy is cold, but a .560 OPS looks more manageable than catastrophic. I would only fade him if the market asks him to clear a demanding hitter line.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
TWO STARTSBoston Red Sox — week of 8/24
Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle brought a 2.69 xERA into Tuesday at Miami and Sunday at the Yankees. That's strong enough for me to commit to the entire week. PLAN AROUND
PLATOON EDGELAD @ DET
Dillon Dingler (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Dillon Dingler’s reverse split makes the right-on-right matchup playable, and batting cleanup maximizes the value of one productive swing. He is a volatile but legitimate buy-low prop target.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATReds @ Cubs
Sal Stewart
Gary's Take Stewart is seeing the ball well, with two homers in this series and four over his last 15 games. He owns a .919 OPS against left-handed pitching and has already taken Imanaga deep in six career at-bats.
P 1 HR — 2-for-5, 5 TB
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/24
Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton Ashcraft's two-start ticket sent him to San Diego on Monday and St. Louis on Sunday. With a 3.41 xERA, I was willing to stream the complete package. STREAM BOTH
BALLPARKCHW @ MIN
Zebby Matthews's ERA drops to 3.14 at Target Field
Matthews’ 3.14 ERA at Target Field reflects a level of comfort that can help steady Minnesota tonight. I expect him to limit Chicago’s damage better than the opposing streaks might suggest.
P 8.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
HEAT CHECKPHI @ LAA
Zach Neto: .980 OPS in Last 15 Days
Zach Neto’s .980 OPS reflects steady form, while over 0.5 total bases requires only ordinary contact. I like that low threshold more than chasing his power ceiling.
HEAT CHECKSEA @ TOR
George Springer: 1.054 OPS in Last 15 Days
Springer’s 1.054 OPS looks like a legitimate timing surge rather than production without a foundation. I still need early hard contact for his total-bases over because the route through volume alone is narrow.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
BULLPENPIT @ STL
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
St. Louis has covered 15.3 relief innings in three games and could be without two important options. Another short start would expose the softer part of the bullpen and give Pittsburgh a real late-game opening.
HEAT CHECKSD @ TB
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1.022 OPS in Last 15 Days
Tatis is in strong form without performing at an unbelievable level for his talent. His power provides a clean route over the total-bases line against Tampa Bay.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKTEX @ MIL
Jake Burger: 1.062 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jake Burger’s power makes the hot stretch believable, and over 0.5 total bases gives him multiple ways to cash. One hit is a fair ask for this version of his bat.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
TWO STARTSMiami Marlins — week of 8/24
Sandy Alcantara
Sandy Alcantara lined up against Boston at home Monday and Washington on the road Saturday. His 3.61 xERA put him in streaming territory, but I still wanted both starts. STREAM BOTH
UPCOMING GAMESNFL
Next NFL slate · SEP 9
BDL lists 1 NFL game on the next slate. Its kickoff time is confirmed.
BULLPENCHW @ MIN
Chicago White Sox pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
The White Sox bullpen has logged 15 innings in three games and has very little length left behind the starter. If Minnesota forces an early pitching change, the matchup can swing sharply in the Twins’ favor.
CLOSER WATCHBOS @ NYY
Aroldis Chapman
Boston is favored at the Yankees, and Aroldis Chapman is fully rested after no outings in the last three games. This is a live save spot with no meaningful committee pressure. Start Chapman confidently and leave Erik Miller for deeper formats.
CLOSER WATCHCOL @ ATL
Raisel Iglesias
Atlanta is a heavy favorite against Colorado, giving Raisel Iglesias the strongest live save setup on the board. He has worked once in the last three games but is fully rested. Start Iglesias everywhere; he is the clear ninth-inning play this week.
HR THREATReds @ Cubs
Matt McLain
Gary's Take I’m buying the price, not McLain's ugly series. He has five homers in 85 August at-bats, four in 82 at-bats against lefties this season and one in seven career at-bats against Imanaga.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADBOS @ NYY
Yankees are 8-6 vs Red Sox this season
The Yankees’ 8-6 edge over Boston describes a competitive rivalry more than a one-sided matchup. I’m not letting the latest lopsided result dictate tonight’s side.
HEAD-TO-HEADSD @ TB
Rays are 2-0 vs Padres this season
Tampa Bay won both earlier meetings, but a two-game sample with one one-run finish is thin evidence. The Rays have a case tonight, just not because of the sweep alone.
HEAD-TO-HEADSEA @ TOR
Blue Jays are 4-2 vs Mariners this season
Toronto’s 4-2 season edge over Seattle, capped by the latest shutout, provides useful home support. It is still background rather than a matchup mechanism strong enough to price alone.
PLATOON EDGECOL @ ATL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
Mickey Moniak gets the right-hander his left-handed bat handles best, and batting sixth keeps him connected to scoring chances. His hit and total-base markets deserve a look.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TOMORROWNYM @ TB
Robert Stock: 7.4 ERA vs 4.9 xERA
Stock’s 4.9 xERA says his 7.40 ERA has been inflated by results worse than the contact deserves. I expect improvement, though the barrel risk keeps me from treating him as a clean bounce-back candidate.
REGRESSIONSEA @ TOR
Max Scherzer: 7.02 ERA vs 4.81 xERA
Scherzer should pitch better than his 7.02 ERA, but the 4.81 xERA does not promise a full return to form. I expect some correction while still giving Seattle chances to create traffic and damage.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
UPCOMING GAMESNCAAF
Next college slate · SEP 3
BDL lists 4 verified FBS-vs-FBS games on the next college slate. All 4 kickoff times are confirmed.
PLATOON EDGECOL @ ATL
Drake Baldwin (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Drake Baldwin gets the platoon edge from the leadoff spot, giving him maximum exposure against a right-hander. That combination makes his hit and run markets appealing.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
BULLPENBOS @ NYY
New York Yankees pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
New York’s bullpen has thrown 13 innings in three games, with much of the trusted group potentially unavailable or limited. Boston can turn an early Warren exit into a major advantage.
REGRESSIONSD @ TB
Chandler Simpson: .311 AVG vs .257 xBA
Chandler Simpson’s .311 average is running well above his .257 expected mark. I’m fading the shiny surface number through his hit and total-base overs.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Christian Moore
A .156 average and .480 OPS are doing real damage, and batting fifth doesn’t rescue that production. He’s playing tonight, but I’m not letting one lineup spot outweigh the season-long results. CUT
BULLPENMIA @ WSH
Washington Nationals pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Washington’s bullpen has covered 12.7 innings in three games, with several of its recently used arms carrying added strain. Miami can gain the late advantage if Alvarez fails to provide length.
STARTER FORMPIT @ STL
Braxton Ashcraft: 1.17 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ashcraft has allowed almost nothing over his last three starts, combining limited traffic with enough strikeouts to escape trouble himself. That makes Pittsburgh’s starter a strong foundation for the under and the Pirates’ side.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
STARTER FORMCOL @ ATL
Tyler Mahle: 2.04 ERA over his last 3 starts
Mahle’s 2.04 ERA over his last three starts is backed by cleaner innings and fewer scoring opportunities. Colorado faces a starter currently giving away very little.
P 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ TOR
George Springer vs Logan Gilbert: .278
George Springer has handled Logan Gilbert before and enters this matchup with a hot bat. I’m open to backing Springer for a hit or extra-base impact despite Gilbert’s strong starter profile.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
REGRESSIONHOU @ NYM
Zac Thornton: 2.88 ERA vs 4.46 xERA
Thornton’s 2.88 ERA is doing too much work on a favorable opponent average, while his 4.46 xERA shows the danger underneath. Houston is well positioned to deliver the regression his profile has been inviting.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
STARTER FORMPIT @ STL
Matthew Liberatore: 7.63 ERA over his last 3 starts
Liberatore’s 7.63 ERA over his last three starts comes from costly bursts of damage rather than nonstop traffic. Pittsburgh’s job is to punish the few mistakes he gives them instead of waiting for a prolonged rally.
P 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
REGRESSIONPHI @ LAA
Edmundo Sosa: .235 AVG vs .285 xBA
Sosa’s .235 average undersells contact that supports a .285 expected mark. I like him as a positive-regression candidate and an underappreciated route into Philadelphia’s offense tonight.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
RETURN WATCHBOS — return listed 8/30
Roman Anthony
Anthony remains on Boston's 60-day IL with a finger injury. He's listed for today, though that doesn't promise activation, and his season OPS sits at .675. Monitor rather than stash outside deep leagues.
TOMORROWDET @ MIN
Jackson Jobe: 3.93 ERA vs 5.67 xERA
Jobe’s 3.93 ERA is living on borrowed time with the hard contact and barrels pointing toward 5.67. Minnesota is positioned to turn that traffic into the kind of damage his surface numbers have been hiding.
RETURN WATCHTOR — return listed 8/30
Joe Mantiply
Mantiply is on Toronto's 60-day IL with a knee injury. His listed return date is today, but that's a roster listing, not a guarantee. The 2.04 ERA makes him interesting if an IL spot is free. Stash in deeper leagues; otherwise monitor.
STARTER FORMCIN @ CHC
Shota Imanaga: 5.68 ERA over his last 3 starts
Imanaga’s 5.68 ERA over his last three starts reflects more traffic and fewer clean innings. Cincinnati has a live path to pressure him early and force Chicago into its bullpen.
P 5 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
REGRESSIONMIA @ WSH
Esteury Ruiz: .236 AVG vs .191 xBA
Ruiz’s .236 average is running well above his .191 expected mark. I’m selling high on his offensive props against Washington.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
FANTASY PICKUPSSD @ TB
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen is my favorite kind of stream: a 2.95 ERA backed by a 3.14 xERA, plus 9.2 K/9 and a sharp 0.93 WHIP. Against San Diego, the ratios and strikeout rate make him an easy one-day add. Add him if you need a streamer today, especially for ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.
REGRESSIONPIT @ STL
Esmerlyn Valdez: .244 AVG vs .201 xBA
Valdez’s .244 average is outperforming a .201 expected mark that better reflects his contact. I am fading the surface production and lowering its influence on my view of Pittsburgh’s offense.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
RUNNING GAMEPIT @ STL
Green light: Pittsburgh Pirates run, and Ivan Herrera has caught just 5%
Pittsburgh has the green light against Ivan Herrera’s 5% caught-stealing rate. Singles and walks can become scoring chances fast, giving the Pirates another way to pressure St. Louis.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 2 bases
TOMORROWMIL @ CHC
Clay Holmes: 2.26 ERA vs 3.96 xERA
Clay Holmes has limited barrels, but the hard contact and large batting-average gap make his 2.26 ERA look fortunate. Milwaukee should create more traffic and scoring than that surface number implies.
RETURN WATCHBOS — return listed 8/31
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Kiner-Falefa is on Boston's 60-day IL with a forearm injury, carrying a .705 OPS and an August 31 listing. That's close, but the date isn't a promise. Stash only if you need second-base depth; otherwise leave him available.
REGRESSIONSD @ TB
Robbie Ray: 3.21 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
Ray’s 3.21 ERA looks too clean beside a 4.58 xERA and an ordinary swing-and-miss profile. Tampa Bay has a good opportunity to turn the expected traffic into actual runs.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
STARTER FORMBOS @ NYY
Will Warren: 6.23 ERA over his last 3 starts
Warren has allowed too much consistent contact during his recent 6.23 ERA stretch. Boston can string hits together, end his night early and attack a depleted Yankees bullpen.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
PARK WEATHERMIA @ WSH
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Nationals Park tonight
The 10 mph wind blowing out at Nationals Park gives well-struck fly balls an extra carry tonight. Both lineups can benefit, especially against pitchers who make mistakes up in the zone.
P final total 8 vs 9 (over lean)
STARTER FORMBAL @ OAK
Chris Bassitt: 3.06 ERA over his last 3 starts
Chris Bassitt comes in sharp, posting a 3.06 ERA across his last three starts. I trust his current form to keep Oakland’s damage under control.
P 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Moises Ballesteros
The .209 average and .599 OPS make the cut case easy enough, but batting cleanup keeps him in a useful opportunity spot tonight. I’m giving that role a little more time before moving on. HOLD
STARTER FORMKC @ CLE
Seth Lugo: 6.32 ERA over his last 3 starts
Seth Lugo’s 6.32 ERA over his last three starts reflects a pitcher struggling to stop innings once traffic arrives. Cleveland is well positioned to keep that pressure building tonight.
P 3.2 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
REGRESSIONCOL @ ATL
Mickey Moniak: .253 AVG vs .214 xBA
Moniak’s .253 average is well ahead of his .214 expected mark, and the contact does not support the production. I’d rather fade his bases and run-production props in Atlanta.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
RETURN WATCHTB — return listed 9/1
Jake Fraley
Fraley is on Tampa Bay's 60-day IL with a groin injury and is listed two days from a return. His .690 OPS makes this a watch-list situation for me. Monitor rather than stash.
REGRESSIONBOS @ NYY
Ceddanne Rafaela: .284 AVG vs .248 xBA
Rafaela’s .284 average has outrun his .248 expected mark. This is a sell-high spot in New York, not one where I want to chase his recent production.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BALLPARKSEA @ TOR
Max Scherzer's ERA jumps to 7.59 at Rogers Centre
Scherzer’s 7.59 ERA at Rogers Centre makes a difficult current profile even harder to trust. Seattle should have opportunities to put him under pressure from the opening innings.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
REGRESSIONBAL @ OAK
Jeffrey Springs: 6.08 ERA vs 4.94 xERA
Springs has experienced some unfavorable results, so his 6.08 ERA should improve toward the 4.94 expected mark. The high WHIP and barrel rate still leave Baltimore plenty of ways to punish him tonight.
P 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 9/1
Ryne Nelson
Nelson is on Arizona's 60-day IL with an elbow injury and a listed return date two days away. A 4.97 ERA doesn't give me enough incentive to absorb the uncertainty. Leave him on waivers.
RUNNING GAMEKC @ CLE
Green light: Kansas City Royals run, and Austin Hedges has caught just 7%
Kansas City has the green light against Austin Hedges and his 7% caught-stealing rate. The Royals can turn ordinary singles and walks into scoring chances by applying constant pressure on the bases.
P Kansas City Royals stole 0 bases
CUT LISTSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
A .226 average and .617 OPS are replaceable season-long numbers, so I understand the urge to cut him. Still, batting second gives him enough lineup value for me to wait rather than make a rushed drop. HOLD
BULLPENHOU @ NYM
Houston Astros pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houston’s recent bullpen workload looks heavy in total, but most of the group can still handle a normal relief script. The concern begins only if the starter exits early and forces the Astros into their softer bulk options.
RUNNING GAMETEX @ MIL
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Elias Diaz (37% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Milwaukee loves to run, but Elias Díaz’s 37% caught-stealing rate demands restraint. The Brewers need to pick clean spots because a reckless attempt could erase a promising inning.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
CUT LISTPIT tonight
Jared Triolo
The cut case is the .628 season OPS: a .246 average doesn’t rescue that lack of production. But Triolo is in tonight’s lineup and batting first, so I’m giving the opportunity one more look. HOLD
BATTER VS ARMKC @ CLE
Steven Kwan vs Seth Lugo: .300
Kwan owns a .300 mark against Lugo and has done more than collect empty singles in the matchup. With his bat in good form, I like his chances to produce another quality plate tonight.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB, 1 BB
FANTASY PICKUPSPIT @ STL
Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton Ashcraft brings a steady profile into St. Louis: 3.59 ERA, 3.41 xERA, 9.3 K/9, and a 1.07 WHIP. The underlying number is even better than the season ERA, and the strikeout rate gives this stream useful upside. Add him if you are chasing strikeouts without wanting to sacrifice your ratios.
BALLPARKMIA @ WSH
At Nationals Park, Andrew Alvarez pitches to a 4.40 ERA
Alvarez’s 4.40 ERA at Nationals Park makes his home version more approachable than his broader work suggests. Miami can get to him by extending at-bats and preventing him from settling into rhythm.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Yusei Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi’s 6.25 ERA is brutal, and a 5.45 xERA offers little reason to expect enough correction. I’m moving on before tonight’s start. CUT
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
A .222 average with a .640 OPS is absolutely cuttable production. Still, Perez remains in tonight’s lineup and bats fourth, which keeps me from pulling the plug just yet. HOLD
RUNNING GAMEBOS @ NYY
New York Yankees like to run — Adley Rutschman (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
New York likes to run, but Rutschman’s 35% caught-stealing rate makes that aggression expensive. The Yankees are more likely to need consecutive hits than stolen bases to manufacture their runs.
P New York Yankees stole 2 bases
CUT LISTSEA tonight
Cal Raleigh
The cut case is brutal: a .169 average and .638 OPS have been dead weight all season. But Raleigh is still in tonight’s lineup and batting cleanup, so I’m giving that role one more chance. HOLD
BATTER VS ARMPIT @ STL
Bryan Reynolds vs Matthew Liberatore: .333
Bryan Reynolds has hit .333 against Matthew Liberatore and has already shown he can do more than slap singles in this matchup. He is one of Pittsburgh’s strongest pieces tonight.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSSEA @ TOR
Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert should not be sitting around in many competitive formats. His 3.36 ERA, 3.69 xERA, 9.4 K/9, and 1.02 WHIP give him a strong blend of strikeouts and ratio control for the Toronto matchup. Add him in deeper leagues, or anywhere you need a quality arm for today and beyond.
RUNNING GAMEKC @ CLE
Cleveland Guardians like to run — Carter Jensen (36% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cleveland’s running game faces a real deterrent in Jensen and his 36% caught-stealing rate. That should keep runners anchored and force the Guardians to drive them home with the bat.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 0 bases
CLOSER WATCHKC @ CLE
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Kansas City is a sizable underdog at Cleveland, so tonight is a weaker save spot even though Lucas Erceg is fully rested. Alex Lange sits only two saves behind, keeping the ninth inning unsettled. Hold Erceg, but stash Lange if chasing saves; this committee can reward either arm this week.
PARK WEATHERPIT @ STL
92° at Busch Stadium — the ball will carry tonight
The 92-degree heat at Busch Stadium should give elevated contact extra carry. With traffic already likely in this matchup, one mistake from either pitcher can turn the game quickly.
P final total 9 vs 11.5 (over lean)
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 9/1
Gavin Stone
Stone is on the Dodgers' 60-day IL with a shoulder injury. His listed return date is two days away, but there's no season line here to strengthen the case. Monitor; stash only in deep leagues with an open IL spot.
REGRESSIONPHI @ LAA
Philadelphia Phillies are 23-11 in one-run games (.676 win%)
Philadelphia’s 23-11 record in one-run games reflects excellent execution but also more close-game success than I expect to persist. I’m careful about paying a premium for the Phillies when tonight’s price assumes they will keep winning every tight finish.
TOMORROWSD @ CIN
Michael King: 3.23 ERA vs 4.28 xERA
Michael King’s underlying numbers point closer to a low-4s ERA arm than his 3.23 mark. I still like him to deliver a solid start against Cincinnati, just not at ace-level pricing.
CUT LISTMIA tonight
Agustin Ramirez
The .228 average and .661 OPS make Ramirez expendable if patience is gone. I’m not there: he’s in tonight’s lineup, batting third, and owns the best OPS of this group. HOLD
RUNNING GAMESD @ TB
Tampa Bay Rays like to run — Freddy Fermin (32% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Tampa Bay’s speed can create pressure, but Freddy Fermin’s 32% caught-stealing rate makes blind aggression costly. The Rays need good jumps and selective attempts to make the running game work.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 4 bases
TOMORROWBAL @ COL
Tanner Gordon: 5.38 ERA vs 4.4 xERA
Tanner Gordon’s 5.38 ERA should improve toward his 4.40 xERA, but the hard contact and barrels remain dangerous. Baltimore can still punish him even if some of his bad luck begins to reverse.
FANTASY PICKUPSKC @ CLE
Nathaniel Lowe
Lowe is batting fifth with a .259 average and .780 OPS, and tonight he gets struggling Seth Lugo and his 5.07 xERA. Deep-league managers needing a first baseman or a one-night bat should add him.
BALLPARKPIT @ STL
Matthew Liberatore's ERA jumps to 5.97 at Busch Stadium
Liberatore’s 5.97 ERA at Busch Stadium shows that pitching at home has not protected him. Pittsburgh should be able to create traffic and force him into repeated damage-control situations.
P 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
FANTASY PICKUPSSEA @ TOR
Dominic Canzone
Canzone is batting second with a .256 average and .810 OPS against struggling Max Scherzer, whose xERA sits at 4.81. Add him in deep leagues if you want a DH with a premium lineup spot tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSBOS @ NYY
Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez offers a solid deeper-league option against the Yankees. His 3.35 ERA is supported by a 3.61 xERA, while 8.9 K/9 provides strikeout value; the 1.20 WHIP is the one number that keeps this from being a universal add. Add him in deeper formats if you need innings and strikeouts and can tolerate some WHIP risk.
CUT LISTBOS tonight
Roman Anthony
The cut case is the production: a .229 average and .675 OPS can drag on a season-long roster. But Anthony is batting first and remains in tonight’s lineup, so the opportunity is still strong enough for me to wait. HOLD
TOMORROWPHI @ ARI
Aaron Nola: 5.04 ERA vs 4.16 xERA
Aaron Nola’s 5.04 ERA should move toward his 4.16 expected mark, but the hard contact prevents me from calling for a full rebound. I expect improvement against Arizona with some volatility still attached.
CUT LISTKC tonight
Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo’s 4.61 ERA is already difficult to carry, while his 5.07 xERA points in an even worse direction. Tonight’s start isn’t worth the season-long roster spot. CUT
TOMORROWCHW @ HOU
Anthony Kay: 4.09 ERA vs 4.94 xERA
Anthony Kay’s 4.09 ERA looks fortunate next to a 4.94 xERA, and ordinary hit luck does not explain the gap. I’m fading that run prevention against Houston.
FANTASY PICKUPSBOS @ NYY
Wilyer Abreu
Abreu’s .801 OPS and third-place lineup spot put him in a strong position against struggling Will Warren and his 4.61 xERA. Deep-league managers looking for an outfield bat tonight should make the add.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 9/5
Carter Baumler
Baumler is on Texas' 60-day IL with a rib injury. He's listed six days away and carries a 3.18 ERA, enough to merit attention without treating that date as firm. Deep-league stash if an IL spot is open.
RUNNING GAMESEA @ TOR
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Alejandro Kirk has caught just 15%
Seattle should stay aggressive against Kirk’s 15% caught-stealing rate. Every baserunner has a chance to move into scoring position without the Mariners needing an extra-base hit.
P Seattle Mariners stole 0 bases
FANTASY PICKUPSKC @ CLE
Jose Ramirez
Ramirez is batting third against struggling Seth Lugo, whose 5.07 xERA makes this a useful spot despite Ramirez’s .240 average and .718 OPS. Add him in deep leagues if you need a DH and want exposure to tonight’s favorable matchup.
FIRST INNINGCOL @ ATL
COL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Colorado’s first-inning drought looks shakier than the 1-of-10 trend suggests against a starter who has been hittable early. I expect traffic right away, with Atlanta still the likelier side to land the first punch.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGBOS @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
The Yankees have scored in the first inning only once across their last ten games, while both starters have shown enough early stability. I’m leaning toward a scoreless opening frame tonight.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGTEX @ MIL
TEX have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Texas hasn’t been landing the first punch, but the starting matchup offers little early security on either side. I expect immediate scoring pressure, with the opening inning capable of setting up a fast-moving game.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGLAD @ DET
DET have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Detroit has stayed quiet in nine of its last 10 first innings, but neither starter inspires much confidence at the top of games. I see real early-run danger from either lineup, and one quick breakthrough could open this game up.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGCIN @ CHC
CIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Cincinnati’s 1-of-10 first-inning mark meets a real escape hatch in Imanaga’s early home-run trouble. With Burns offering stronger resistance, I like the Reds’ chances of striking first and making Chicago chase.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGMIA @ WSH
WSH have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Washington has scored in the first inning only once in its last ten, and Alvarez has generally opened games cleanly. I favor a scoreless first before the offenses begin separating the game later.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 9/5
Carlos Estevez
Estevez is on Kansas City's 60-day IL with a shoulder injury and a listed return date six days away. With no season line available, I'm not forcing the stash. Monitor; stash only in deeper formats.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 9/8
Robert Garcia
Garcia is on Texas' 60-day IL with a shoulder injury. His listed return date is nine days away, and the 3.38 ERA keeps him in the conversation. Stash in deeper leagues if you can wait.

Graded results

Games

W
Phillies ML -172
MLB · 5-2
W
Orioles ML -144
MLB · 8-5
L
Nationals ML -110
MLB · 6-2
L
Mariners ML -132
MLB · 0-7
L
Braves -1.5 -120
MLB · 2-3
L
Red Sox ML -142
MLB · 1-16
L
White Sox ML +104
MLB · 1-5
W
Guardians ML -178
MLB · 1-11
W
Rays ML -160
MLB · 4-5
W
Pirates ML -120
MLB · 5-4
W
Dodgers ML -150
MLB · 6-1
L
Brewers ML -154
MLB · 7-4
L
Mets ML -120
MLB · 6-3
L
Cubs ML -154
MLB · 7-5

Props

W
Andrew Alvarez · over
Marlins @ Nationals · Actual 6
L
Braxton Ashcraft · over
Pirates @ Cardinals · Actual 15
L
Bryce Harper · over
Phillies @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Christian Yelich · over
Rangers @ Brewers · Actual 0
W
Drew Rasmussen · over
Padres @ Rays · Actual 18
W
Esteury Ruiz · over
Marlins @ Nationals · Actual 1
L
Ethan Pecko · under
Astros @ Mets · Actual 15
L
Framber Valdez · over
Dodgers @ Tigers · Actual 1
W
Ha-Seong Kim · under
Rockies @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Jake Bauers · over
Rangers @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Jared Young · over
Astros @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Jeffrey Springs · under
Orioles @ Athletics · Actual 6
W
Jordan Hicks · under
White Sox @ Twins · Actual 2
L
Josh Naylor · over
Mariners @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
W
Lawrence Butler · over
Orioles @ Athletics · Actual 2
L
Mason Adams · under
Rockies @ Braves · Actual 15
W
Matthew Liberatore · over
Pirates @ Cardinals · Actual 3
L
Matt McLain · over
Reds @ Cubs · Actual 0
L
Max Scherzer · over
Mariners @ Blue Jays · Actual 1
W
Miguel Rojas · over
Dodgers @ Tigers · Actual 1
L
Miguel Vargas · over
White Sox @ Twins · Actual 0
W
Parker Messick · under
Royals @ Guardians · Actual 1
W
Ranger Suarez · under
Red Sox @ Yankees · Actual 16
W
Robbie Ray · over
Padres @ Rays · Actual 4
W
Sal Stewart · over
Reds @ Cubs · Actual 1
W
Sal Stewart · over
Reds @ Cubs · Actual 1
W
Seth Lugo · over
Royals @ Guardians · Actual 9
W
Shota Imanaga · under
Reds @ Cubs · Actual 15
L
Will Warren · under
Red Sox @ Yankees · Actual 21
L
Yusei Kikuchi · under
Phillies @ Angels · Actual 21