Astros at Mets
O/U 9 · RL Mets -1.5 · Citi Field
Mets ML-120
CONF 62%
LLostFinal 6-3
The read
A tied Sunday series at Citi Field comes down to two inexperienced starters with dramatically different bodies of work behind them.
Zac Thornton has delivered a 2.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 56.1 innings. He completed six innings with one earned run and no walks in his latest start. Ethan Pecko enters with a 7.88 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and seven walks through eight MLB innings, failing to complete five innings in either start. That sample is extremely thin, but it still leaves Houston carrying considerably more uncertainty on the mound.
Pecko has allowed left-handed hitters a 1.019 OPS through 19 at-bats. New York can counter with four left-handed hitters plus switch-hitting Francisco Lindor, including Juan Soto at DH. Soto owns a 1.021 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Jared Young is at .807 and Carson Benge at .773.
The bullpen comparison reinforces the starting-pitching edge. The Mets’ current relievers have a 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, with a 2.50 ERA over the last five days. Houston’s group has a 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but its recent ERA rises to 5.66 over five days and 6.81 over ten.
Houston’s seven right-handed starters are the legitimate counterargument because Thornton has allowed a .749 OPS to right-handed batters. The Astros also own the better season-long offensive OPS, .725 to .694. Those concerns keep me away from laying 1.5 runs, but they do not outweigh the separation between the starters and recent bullpens. The moneyline is the right expression of the Mets edge.
Props on this game
2Ethan PeckoUNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs+102
LActual 15
Pecko has recorded only 11 and 13 outs in his first two MLB starts while throwing 89 and 88 pitches. Seven walks in eight innings have kept him from working efficiently, and now he faces a Mets lineup with Juan Soto and several left-handed bats.
Lefties have produced a 1.019 OPS against Pecko, albeit in a small sample. I only need New York to extend at-bats and get him out before he completes the fifth.
Getting plus money makes the under worthwhile.
Jared YoungOVER 0.5 Hits Hits-156
Not yet graded
Young has recorded a hit in 11 of his last 15 games and is batting .278 with an .807 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also enters after collecting three hits against Houston on Saturday. Pecko has allowed left-handed hitters a 1.019 OPS through his first two starts, and Young should receive multiple chances against him from the fifth spot. The price is not cheap, but the matchup and Young's recent contact give him a strong path to one hit.
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