Brewers at Cubs
O/U 9.5 · RL Cubs -1.5 · Wrigley Field
Brewers ML-106
CONF 57%
LLostFinal 3-17
The read
It’s 85°F at Wrigley with an 11 mph wind blowing toward center as the NL Central leaders open a four-game series. This is a tight matchup, so I’m backing Milwaukee to win without asking it to cover 1.5 runs.
Chicago owns the more favorable starting-lineup matchup. The Cubs have a .267 AVG and .807 OPS against left-handed pitching, while Clay Holmes enters with a 0.47 ERA over his last three starts. Kyle Harrison provides enough recent form to keep that advantage from deciding the entire game, however: he has a 1.83 ERA in August and a 2.45 ERA across his last three starts.
The separator is what happens after the starters leave. Milwaukee’s current bullpen owns a 2.92 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, compared with a 3.78 ERA and 1.25 WHIP for Chicago. The recent difference is wider: a 1.69 ERA for the Brewers’ bullpen over the last seven days against 6.62 for the Cubs. Milwaukee also gets Abner Uribe back with his 2.05 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.
Milwaukee’s 85-52 record and +177 run differential do not determine tonight, but they reinforce the bullpen advantage. Chicago is 77-60 with a +127 differential, so this remains a matchup between two winning teams rather than an invitation to lay a run line.
Holmes and Chicago’s production against lefties are why I’m passing on Milwaukee -1.5 at +136. At Brewers ML -106, I only need the stronger full-game pitching operation to finish the job.
Props on this game
2Kyle HarrisonUNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-140
WActual 11
Harrison has recorded more than 15 outs in only one of his last eight starts. Since returning to the rotation, he has finished at exactly five innings or earlier in all four outings.
Getting the 16th out is a demanding assignment against a Cubs lineup carrying a .267 average and .807 OPS versus lefties. Chicago starts seven right-handed hitters, and the 85-degree weather with the wind blowing out adds another obstacle. Harrison can pitch effectively and still cash this under by handing a close game to Milwaukee's rested leverage arms after five.
Clay HolmesUNDER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs Pitcher Earned Runs-110
WActual 0
Holmes has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his 13 starts this season, including one total earned run across 19 innings in his last three. He has also produced a 0.75 ERA over his first two starts at Wrigley.
Milwaukee brings six left-handed hitters, but Holmes has held lefties to a .598 OPS. His 1.81 groundout-to-air-out ratio also gives him a better way to survive the wind than a fly-ball pitcher would have. At nearly even money, I'm backing his current form to keep Milwaukee below three earned runs while he is on the mound.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store