Phillies at Mets
O/U 9.5 · RL Phillies -1.5 · Citi Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Mets ML +136
- Published odds
- +136
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 7-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 11 moves| Market | Opened Sep 19 11:14 PM | Close Sep 20 12:55 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Phillies -1.5 (+104) | Phillies -1.5 (+110) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8 (-108) | 7.5 (-115) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Phillies -166 | Phillies -160 | +6 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 19 11:14 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+104) | 8 (-108) | Phillies -166 · Mets +137 |
| Sep 20 1:01 AM | Phillies -1.5 (+101) | 8 (-107) | Phillies -171 · Mets +141 |
| Sep 20 8:19 AM | Phillies -1.5 (+101) | 8 (-107) | Phillies -175 · Mets +144 |
| Sep 20 10:30 AM | Phillies -1.5 (+109) | 7.5 (-112) | Phillies -161 · Mets +133 |
| Sep 20 11:23 AM | Phillies -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (-112) | Phillies -156 · Mets +129 |
| Sep 20 11:30 AM | Phillies -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (-112) | Phillies -157 · Mets +130 |
| Sep 20 11:55 AM | Phillies -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (-112) | Phillies -161 · Mets +133 |
| Sep 20 12:10 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (-113) | Phillies -157 · Mets +130 |
| Sep 20 12:20 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (-113) | Phillies -160 · Mets +132 |
| Sep 20 12:40 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (-113) | Phillies -160 · Mets +132 |
| Sep 20 12:43 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (-115) | Phillies -160 · Mets +132 |
| CLOSESep 20 12:55 PM | Phillies -1.5 (+110) | 7.5 (-115) | Phillies -160 · Mets +132 |
The read
Sunday afternoon at Citi Field, and the Mets have a chance to finish this series with another win over Philadelphia. I’m taking New York at +136 because Tong offers a credible competitive start, and Philadelphia’s bridge to its closer gives the Mets another opportunity afterward. Tong’s 3.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP come from just 21 innings, so I’m keeping the enthusiasm measured. But his September 14 outing reached six innings on 83 pitches. My read is that New York can stay in this game without requiring an exceptional performance from its starter, making the underdog price worth taking.
The middle innings carry the most weight in my decision. Raley has allowed seven earned runs across his last 3⅓ relief innings, and Philadelphia’s recent bullpen results cannot be dismissed simply because Duran anchors the ninth. The Mets have their own credible late-game candidates: Lavender has a 1.93 relief ERA, while Senga has a 2.89 ERA over his last 9⅓ relief innings. Lavender last appeared September 18 and Senga September 15; their availability today remains unknown. I’m treating a route through them as a conditional usage estimate. New York also used five relievers yesterday, and another Núñez appearance would mean three consecutive calendar days. That keeps this from becoming a strong-confidence bullpen endorsement.
The strongest argument against my ticket is Sánchez: a 2.93 ERA and 215 strikeouts across 193⅔ innings establish much more than Tong’s brief sample. A lengthy, effective Sánchez start followed by Duran is Philadelphia’s clearest winning route. Still, the recent deterioration documented in Sánchez’s starts makes me reluctant to price today entirely around his season baseline. Philadelphia’s six left-handed starters also prevent treating Tong’s assignment casually. I’m accepting those risks because the Mets have plausible routes both against the starter and during the relief transition. At +136, that combination earns my moneyline backing, with moderate conviction.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Cristopher Sanchez: 6.87 ERA over his last 3 starts
6.87Cristopher Sanchez has yielded 14 earned runs and 23 hits in 18.1 innings across his last three starts, a 6.87 ERA. That is 3.95 runs above his 2.93 season ERA entering PHI @ NYM.
BATTER VS ARM
Mark Vientos vs Cristopher Sanchez: .333
.333Mark Vientos is 5-for-15 with a 1.274 OPS and four walks in 15 career at-bats against Cristopher Sanchez. They meet tonight in Philadelphia at New York, while Vientos has a .585 OPS over his last 15 games.
Juan Soto vs Cristopher Sanchez: .357
.357Juan Soto is 5-for-14 (.357 average) in 14 career at-bats against Cristopher Sanchez. They meet tonight in PHI @ NYM, and Soto enters with an .801 OPS over his last 15 games.
PLATOON EDGE
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
1.009Bryce Harper has a 1.009 OPS in 335 AB versus RHP, compared with .671 in 214 AB versus LHP. He bats third against RHP Jonah Tong tonight.
HR THREAT
Mark Vientos
+800Gary's Take I’ll take one long swing with Vientos over 0.5 home runs at +800. The price asks him to clear an implied probability of roughly 11%, and his power has been substantially better against left-handed pitching: eight homers in 102 at-bats with an .883 OPS.
BALLPARK
Cristopher Sanchez owns a 2.21 ERA at Citi Field — 3.95 everywhere else
2.21Cristopher Sanchez has a 2.21 ERA across 18 games and 114.0 IP at Citi Field, compared with 3.95 in 79.2 IP at other parks; hitters bat .233 off him at Citi. The split alone cannot separate venue impact from pitcher performance.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 17, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKCARSON BENGEHITS OVER 0.5
I’m backing Benge over 0.5 hits at -150. He has recorded a hit in 10 of his last 15 games, is 6-for-11 in this series and averages 1.1 hits across 148 games. Batting fifth should also give him four trips in a competitive game.
The strongest concern is the left-on-left matchup. Sánchez has held left-handed hitters to a .165 average and .378 OPS, while Benge is 0-for-3 against him. Benge has still hit .268 with a .729 OPS against lefties, but that matchup and the 60% break-even price keep my conviction moderate.
- THE LONG SHOTMARK VIENTOSHR OVER 0.5
I’ll take one long swing with Vientos over 0.5 home runs at +800. The price asks him to clear an implied probability of roughly 11%, and his power has been substantially better against left-handed pitching: eight homers in 102 at-bats with an .883 OPS. He also owns four hits, including a homer, in 15 career at-bats against Sánchez. Batting cleanup gives him the best run-producing role in this lineup.
Sánchez is still a 2.93-ERA starter who has allowed only 17 homers in 31 starts, and Citi Field suppresses home-run power. Vientos also has just 13 homers in 257 at-bats overall and only three across his last 15 games. This is a price-driven long shot, not a claim that Sánchez is an easy home-run matchup.
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