Phillies at Nationals

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  JACKSON KENTPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

  MLBWashington Nationals· -180

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 3

  GARY'S TAKE

  Jackson Kent has gone over a walk and a half in five of his six big league starts, and the two that matter most for tonight are the two he's already thrown at Nationals Park. In those home starts he walked five batters, then four. Twenty walks in 27 1/3 innings this season is a rookie who's still hunting for the strike zone, not a fluke read off one bad night. His only start under this number came at Petco Park, his shortest outing of the year — he was out after three innings because San Diego was hitting him hard, not because he'd suddenly found the plate. Philadelphia doesn't need to be unusually patient to get there tonight. Kent needs to hold the zone for five-plus innings against a lineup that's earned the right to make a young arm work, and his six-start sample says that's not the way to bet.

  ×

  Jackson Kent
  Pitcher Walks over 1.5

  -180 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3

  Washington Nationals

  Read Gary’s Take

  Jackson Kent has gone over a walk and a half in five of his six big league starts, and the two that matter most for tonight are the two he's already thrown at Nationals Park. In those home starts he walked five batters, then four.

  Twenty walks in 27 1/3 innings this season is a rookie who's still hunting for the strike zone, not a fluke read off one bad night. His only start under this number came at Petco Park, his shortest outing of the year — he was out after three innings because San Diego was hitting him hard, not because he'd suddenly found the plate.

  Philadelphia doesn't need to be unusually patient to get there tonight. Kent needs to hold the zone for five-plus innings against a lineup that's earned the right to make a young arm work, and his six-start sample says that's not the way to bet.

• GARY'S PICK

  TREA TURNERWALKS UNDER 0.5

  MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -200

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Trea Turner draws a walk in roughly three of every ten games, and that number is more about who he is at the plate than who's on the mound. Forty-one walks in 597 at-bats is a light rate for a hitter at the top of a lineup, and it holds because Turner is looking to do damage early in the count rather than grind one out. Jackson Kent's wildness cuts against this pick on paper — a pitcher who's issued 20 walks in 27 1/3 innings should hand out plenty of free passes. But Kent's fastball gets hit hard whenever it catches the plate, and that's exactly the pitch an aggressive hitter like Turner is hunting rather than taking for a ball. Turner has gone without a walk in ten of his last fifteen games. I don't need Kent to find the zone for this one to cash — I need Turner to keep being Turner, and that's the safer side of this number.

  ×

  Trea Turner
  Walks under 0.5

  -200 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  Philadelphia Phillies

  Read Gary’s Take

  Trea Turner draws a walk in roughly three of every ten games, and that number is more about who he is at the plate than who's on the mound. Forty-one walks in 597 at-bats is a light rate for a hitter at the top of a lineup, and it holds because Turner is looking to do damage early in the count rather than grind one out.

  Jackson Kent's wildness cuts against this pick on paper — a pitcher who's issued 20 walks in 27 1/3 innings should hand out plenty of free passes. But Kent's fastball gets hit hard whenever it catches the plate, and that's exactly the pitch an aggressive hitter like Turner is hunting rather than taking for a ball.

  Turner has gone without a walk in ten of his last fifteen games. I don't need Kent to find the zone for this one to cash — I need Turner to keep being Turner, and that's the safer side of this number.

• THE LONG SHOT

  DYLAN CREWSHR OVER 0.5

  MLBWashington Nationals· +800

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Dylan Crews hits right-handed, and his numbers against left-handed pitching look like a different player than his season line: an .852 OPS and six home runs in 112 at-bats against lefties, against a quiet .575 OPS against right-handers. Cristopher Sánchez throws left-handed, and Crews is 4-for-8 against him personally over his career. That's a small sample, but it lines up with the larger platoon trend instead of fighting it. Crews also leads off, which means more pitches and more at-bats tonight than anyone else in this lineup. At plus-800, I'm not betting that Crews definitely goes deep — I'm betting that his real odds in this matchup are better than that number implies, and a hitter with this track record against this specific arm gets there often enough to make the price worth taking.

  ×

  Dylan Crews
  HR over 0.5

  +800 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Washington Nationals

  Read Gary’s Take

  Dylan Crews hits right-handed, and his numbers against left-handed pitching look like a different player than his season line: an .852 OPS and six home runs in 112 at-bats against lefties, against a quiet .575 OPS against right-handers. Cristopher Sánchez throws left-handed, and Crews is 4-for-8 against him personally over his career.

  That's a small sample, but it lines up with the larger platoon trend instead of fighting it. Crews also leads off, which means more pitches and more at-bats tonight than anyone else in this lineup.

  At plus-800, I'm not betting that Crews definitely goes deep — I'm betting that his real odds in this matchup are better than that number implies, and a hitter with this track record against this specific arm gets there often enough to make the price worth taking.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.