Phillies at Mets

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The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  KYLE SCHWARBERWALKS OVER 0.5

  MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +114

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Schwarber leads off the Phillies order and does the one thing at the plate as consistently as anyone in the league: he takes the walk. Ninety-five of them this season, a pace of better than six per ten games, and he's cleared this exact number in 8 of his last 15. He worked one off Nolan McLean just last night in this same series, so the swing decisions are current, not old news. Facing a lefty in Zac Thornton changes very little here — Schwarber's plate discipline doesn't have a platoon split, and a hitter with his power forces pitchers to be careful regardless of which arm they throw with. At plus money for half a walk, I don't need him to do this in even half his games to cash, and his season-long rate clears that bar comfortably. The case against me: Thornton doesn't give out free passes carelessly. Sixteen walks in over 73 innings is a tidy number, built on a deep mix he uses to get ahead and stay ahead in counts rather than nibble. If he's around the zone tonight the way he's been most of this season, that works against the over. And Schwarber himself is in a genuine cold stretch by the surface numbers — a .130 average over his last week — which can push a hitter to expand the zone out of frustration rather than sit back and take his walk. I'm still taking the price.

  ×

  Kyle Schwarber
  Walks over 0.5

  +114 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Philadelphia Phillies

  Read Gary’s Take

  Schwarber leads off the Phillies order and does the one thing at the plate as consistently as anyone in the league: he takes the walk. Ninety-five of them this season, a pace of better than six per ten games, and he's cleared this exact number in 8 of his last 15. He worked one off Nolan McLean just last night in this same series, so the swing decisions are current, not old news. Facing a lefty in Zac Thornton changes very little here — Schwarber's plate discipline doesn't have a platoon split, and a hitter with his power forces pitchers to be careful regardless of which arm they throw with. At plus money for half a walk, I don't need him to do this in even half his games to cash, and his season-long rate clears that bar comfortably.

  The case against me: Thornton doesn't give out free passes carelessly. Sixteen walks in over 73 innings is a tidy number, built on a deep mix he uses to get ahead and stay ahead in counts rather than nibble. If he's around the zone tonight the way he's been most of this season, that works against the over. And Schwarber himself is in a genuine cold stretch by the surface numbers — a .130 average over his last week — which can push a hitter to expand the zone out of frustration rather than sit back and take his walk. I'm still taking the price.

• THE LONG SHOT

  KYLE SCHWARBERHR OVER 0.5

  MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +295

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  One long shot off the home run board, and it's Schwarber again. Forty-five home runs this season is a serious number, and he's gone deep in 5 of his last 15 games — well clear of what plus-295 needs to break even. This isn't a platoon play that evaporates against same-side pitching, either: his .912 OPS against left-handers is actually his better platoon split, so Thornton throwing left-handed does nothing to shield him. And Thornton has a real recent home run problem of his own — he's allowed one in nearly every one of his last six starts, including a two-homer night apiece from Devers and Koss in the same game three weeks ago. Even Schwarber's own slump argues for this bet rather than against it: he's hitting just .185 in September, but five of his ten hits this month have left the yard. That's exactly the shape of hitter this line needs — he doesn't have to be hitting for average to hit this. The honest case against it: Citi Field is a legitimate pitcher's park that suppresses home runs with its dimensions, and the wind tonight is blowing in from center field, working directly against fly-ball carry. Schwarber is cold by the ordinary measures, and Thornton's most recent start — seven strong innings in the Bronx — was his best of the past month, a sign the homer-prone stretch isn't guaranteed to show up again tonight. I'm still willing to take the long shot at this price.

  ×

  Kyle Schwarber
  HR over 0.5

  +295 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Philadelphia Phillies

  Read Gary’s Take

  One long shot off the home run board, and it's Schwarber again. Forty-five home runs this season is a serious number, and he's gone deep in 5 of his last 15 games — well clear of what plus-295 needs to break even. This isn't a platoon play that evaporates against same-side pitching, either: his .912 OPS against left-handers is actually his better platoon split, so Thornton throwing left-handed does nothing to shield him. And Thornton has a real recent home run problem of his own — he's allowed one in nearly every one of his last six starts, including a two-homer night apiece from Devers and Koss in the same game three weeks ago. Even Schwarber's own slump argues for this bet rather than against it: he's hitting just .185 in September, but five of his ten hits this month have left the yard. That's exactly the shape of hitter this line needs — he doesn't have to be hitting for average to hit this.

  The honest case against it: Citi Field is a legitimate pitcher's park that suppresses home runs with its dimensions, and the wind tonight is blowing in from center field, working directly against fly-ball carry. Schwarber is cold by the ordinary measures, and Thornton's most recent start — seven strong innings in the Bronx — was his best of the past month, a sign the homer-prone stretch isn't guaranteed to show up again tonight. I'm still willing to take the long shot at this price.

• GARY'S PICK

  CARSON BENGESINGLES OVER 0.5

  MLBNew York Mets· -103

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  Benge hits cleanup for a Mets lineup playing out the string, and he does damage in the most repeatable way a hitter can: contact, legs, and a hit in roughly half his starts — 8 of his last 15 games, right in line with his season pace. The pitching plan working against him tonight matters here. Tim Mayza is listed as the starter, but he's opening, not starting — he worked the eighth inning in relief last night and is handing this game to José Urquidy, a waiver claim from two days ago, for the bulk of the innings. That means most of Benge's at-bats tonight project against Urquidy, a right-hander who's been hit hard in long relief this year and just posted a 65-pitch, four-inning outing in which he allowed five hits. A speed-and-contact bat facing a bulk arm that hasn't missed many bats is exactly the matchup that produces a cheap single, and at a price this close to even, I like the side with the better recent track record of putting the ball in play. Against me: Benge has cooled off, hitting .212 over his last 15 days, and this single-only market is priced far closer to even than the broader any-hit line, which tells me the book expects a real share of his production to come as extra-base hits rather than singles when he connects — he's a 22-steal, gap-power threat, not a pure slap hitter. And if Mayza stretches his opener stint even one batter longer than expected, Benge picks up a left-on-left look, a matchup where his numbers are a real step down from what he does against right-handers.

  ×

  Carson Benge
  Singles over 0.5

  -103 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  New York Mets

  Read Gary’s Take

  Benge hits cleanup for a Mets lineup playing out the string, and he does damage in the most repeatable way a hitter can: contact, legs, and a hit in roughly half his starts — 8 of his last 15 games, right in line with his season pace. The pitching plan working against him tonight matters here. Tim Mayza is listed as the starter, but he's opening, not starting — he worked the eighth inning in relief last night and is handing this game to José Urquidy, a waiver claim from two days ago, for the bulk of the innings. That means most of Benge's at-bats tonight project against Urquidy, a right-hander who's been hit hard in long relief this year and just posted a 65-pitch, four-inning outing in which he allowed five hits. A speed-and-contact bat facing a bulk arm that hasn't missed many bats is exactly the matchup that produces a cheap single, and at a price this close to even, I like the side with the better recent track record of putting the ball in play.

  Against me: Benge has cooled off, hitting .212 over his last 15 days, and this single-only market is priced far closer to even than the broader any-hit line, which tells me the book expects a real share of his production to come as extra-base hits rather than singles when he connects — he's a 22-steal, gap-power threat, not a pure slap hitter. And if Mayza stretches his opener stint even one batter longer than expected, Benge picks up a left-on-left look, a matchup where his numbers are a real step down from what he does against right-handers.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.