It's an elimination game under the lights at Truist Park. The Braves send deadline pickup Tyler Mahle out to save their season, and Tyler Glasnow can put the two-time defending champions into a third straight NLCS. Atlanta's position deserves respect, but I'm laying the price with Los Angeles. Mahle has been terrific as a Brave: a 1.91 ERA across 10 starts, including seven innings of one-run ball against Philadelphia. With Sean Murphy catching and Mauricio Dubón at short, Atlanta has the best defensive alignment it could ask for behind Mahle. There are warning signs underneath the ERA, though. His strikeouts are down to 6.4 per nine over his last five starts, and he has stranded runners at a rate near 87%. Right-handed hitters have a .788 OPS against Mahle this season, and the Dodgers start five of them tonight. Freddie Freeman already has two homers in this series and is 8-for-19 for his career against Mahle. The Dodgers are 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position in the series, yet they have a 12.7% barrel rate. Their results are trailing the quality of their at-bats, which is different from an offense that's broken. The real risk on the Dodgers' side is Glasnow's 12 full days without game action, and it's the reason this price isn't bigger. The underlying numbers are elite: a 2.88 xERA, 11.92 K/9, and a .175 average allowed to both lefties and righties. Atlanta's lineup is hitting .196 this postseason. Baldwin, Acuña and Olson are a combined 10-for-67, and Austin Riley is 1-for-12 with 8 strikeouts in his career against Glasnow. If Roberts has to go to the pen early, that's where the gap is widest. Atlanta used Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Brent Suter and Dylan Dodd last night, and its relievers have allowed 13 homers in 48.1 tracked innings. The Dodgers used only two relievers. Alex Vesia and five other arms have had at least two full days off, and their bullpen has allowed one homer in 31 tracked innings. Atlanta won five of six in the regular season and the crowd will be loud, but the Dodgers have the deeper lineup and the fresher bullpen.
It's an elimination game under the lights at Truist Park. The Braves send deadline pickup Tyler Mahle out to save their season, and Tyler Glasnow can put the two-time defending champions into a third straight NLCS. Atlanta's position deserves respect, but I'm laying the price with Los Angeles.
Mahle has been terrific as a Brave: a 1.91 ERA across 10 starts, including seven innings of one-run ball against Philadelphia. With Sean Murphy catching and Mauricio Dubón at short, Atlanta has the best defensive alignment it could ask for behind Mahle. There are warning signs underneath the ERA, though. His strikeouts are down to 6.4 per nine over his last five starts, and he has stranded runners at a rate near 87%. Right-handed hitters have a .788 OPS against Mahle this season, and the Dodgers start five of them tonight. Freddie Freeman already has two homers in this series and is 8-for-19 for his career against Mahle. The Dodgers are 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position in the series, yet they have a 12.7% barrel rate. Their results are trailing the quality of their at-bats, which is different from an offense that's broken.
The real risk on the Dodgers' side is Glasnow's 12 full days without game action, and it's the reason this price isn't bigger. The underlying numbers are elite: a 2.88 xERA, 11.92 K/9, and a .175 average allowed to both lefties and righties. Atlanta's lineup is hitting .196 this postseason. Baldwin, Acuña and Olson are a combined 10-for-67, and Austin Riley is 1-for-12 with 8 strikeouts in his career against Glasnow. If Roberts has to go to the pen early, that's where the gap is widest. Atlanta used Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Brent Suter and Dylan Dodd last night, and its relievers have allowed 13 homers in 48.1 tracked innings. The Dodgers used only two relievers. Alex Vesia and five other arms have had at least two full days off, and their bullpen has allowed one homer in 31 tracked innings. Atlanta won five of six in the regular season and the crowd will be loud, but the Dodgers have the deeper lineup and the fresher bullpen.
Dodgers Moneyline