Reds at Braves
O/U 7.5 · RL Braves -1.5 · Truist Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Braves -1.5 +100
- Published odds
- +100
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 7-6
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETRIVERS · 10 moves| Market | Opened Sep 24 5:00 AM | Close Sep 24 6:30 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Braves -1.5 (+104) | Braves -1.5 (-103) | Price |
| TOTAL | 7.5 (-113) | 8 (-130) | +½ |
| MONEYLINE | Braves -215 | Braves -215 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 24 5:00 AM | Braves -1.5 (+104) | 7.5 (-113) | Braves -215 · Reds +175 |
| Sep 24 12:01 PM | Braves -1.5 (-103) | 7.5 (-113) | Braves -225 · Reds +185 |
| Sep 24 1:03 PM | Braves -1.5 (+100) | 7.5 (-112) | Braves -225 · Reds +185 |
| Sep 24 1:21 PM | Braves -1.5 (+100) | 7.5 (-114) | Braves -225 · Reds +180 |
| Sep 24 3:22 PM | Braves -1.5 (-103) | 7.5 (-109) | Braves -230 · Reds +188 |
| Sep 24 3:43 PM | Braves -1.5 (-103) | 7.5 (-120) | Braves -230 · Reds +188 |
| Sep 24 4:01 PM | Braves -1.5 (-103) | 7.5 (-118) | Braves -230 · Reds +188 |
| Sep 24 4:24 PM | Braves -1.5 (-103) | 8 (-130) | Braves -225 · Reds +185 |
| Sep 24 5:50 PM | Braves -1.5 (-103) | 8 (-129) | Braves -220 · Reds +180 |
| Sep 24 6:12 PM | Braves -1.5 (-104) | 8 (-129) | Braves -225 · Reds +185 |
| CLOSESep 24 6:30 PM | Braves -1.5 (-103) | 8 (-130) | Braves -215 · Reds +180 |
The read
It's the rubber game at Truist Park and the Braves' regular-season home finale: Brady Singer against Tyler Mahle, series tied 1-1. It pains the Reds fan in me, but the matchup that decides this one is Singer against the top of Atlanta's order. Singer allows a .909 OPS to left-handed hitters, and 23 of the 31 homers allowed came from that side. Atlanta bats Baldwin (.892 OPS vs RHP), Olson (.845) and Harris (.817) first, third and fourth, and Acuña (.837 vs RHP) is back second after one game off. Singer throws the sinker about half the time, and Acuña, Baldwin and Olson all sit at .400 or better in xwOBA against that pitch. The last three starts produced 15 walks in 12.1 innings. Singer's 5.67 ERA comes with a 5.72 xERA, so the price on Atlanta is built on something solid, not on Mahle's fragile 1.28 with the Braves.
The margin builds in the middle innings. Singer hasn't reached six innings since Aug 20 and has averaged roughly four and a half over the last five starts. That hands the 5th through 7th to the soft middle of the Reds pen: - Spiers: 4 IP, 4 ER and 3 HR in his only MLB outing. - Phillips: 5.53 ERA, 28 walks in 27.2 IP. - Or second-day work from Ashcraft or Mey.
Mahle, meanwhile, has gone five-plus innings with one earned run or fewer in all five recent starts. Even his Atlanta-only 3.38 xERA makes him a clearly good starter. Behind him, Fuentes, Dodd and Kerr all have at least a full day off, so Atlanta doesn't need anyone who worked last night.
The best argument against this pick is Cincinnati's late trio. Burke has a 0.00 ERA over 10.2 innings in the last 30 days, Pagán sits at 1.59, and that group held this lineup scoreless over three innings on Sep 22. Add De La Cruz's .474 xwOBA against four-seamers, plus the home-favorite problem of not batting in the ninth with a lead, and this is no lock. But Atlanta's three runs in 19 innings this series came against two left-handed starters. Tonight is the first righty, and the damage window is innings one through six, before those Reds arms come in. At even money, I'll take Atlanta to clear the run line.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Brady Singer: 15.32 ERA over his last 3 starts
15.32Singer has allowed 21 earned runs and 21 hits in 12.1 innings over his last 3 starts, so he is barely getting through four innings a turn. His 5.67 season ERA was already high, which makes this look like a weak starter having a worse stretch rather than a good one in a slump. Three starts is a short sample, and the ERA should come down from here. In Atlanta tonight, the spot to think about is an early exit and the Reds' bullpen covering a lot of innings.
Tyler Mahle: 0.95 ERA over his last 3 starts
0.95Mahle has allowed 2 earned runs in his last 19 innings with a 0.79 WHIP, so hitters are barely reaching base. His season marks are a 3.81 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and three starts can run hot, so expect some drift back toward those. Facing Singer tonight, the gap between the two starters' recent form is the main thing to weigh in this game.
HEAT CHECK
Elly De La Cruz: 1.241 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.241De La Cruz has a 1.241 OPS over 45 AB in the last 15 days, 0.35 above an already strong .891 season mark. With 29 home runs, this hot stretch sits closer to his real level than most on the board, so any cooling should be smaller. At Atlanta with a 1.5 total-bases line, the season numbers back up the recent form.
COOLING OFF
Ozzie Albies: .457 OPS in Last 15 Days
.457Albies has a .457 OPS over 46 AB in the last 15 days, down 0.239 from his .696 season mark. His season OPS is not high to begin with, so even a full rebound brings him back to a middling level. Forty-six at-bats is a short window. Against Cincinnati, expect something closer to his season form and keep expectations modest.
FIRST INNING
ATL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10ATL scored in the first inning in 1 of the 10 sampled games. 2026 first-inning pitching samples — Tyler Mahle: 6.00 ERA, .329 opponent AVG across 18.0 IP, 3 HR; Brady Singer: 5.70 ERA, .248 opponent AVG across 30.0 IP, 7 HR.
STREAK
ATL games have gone UNDER 5 straight
U5Atlanta's last five games averaged 6.4 combined runs, and the lines averaged 8.1. Five games is short, and one bad bullpen night ends it. Tonight's total is 7.5, so books have trimmed some of that gap, and Cincinnati brings its own under run into the game. The lower line still sits above what Atlanta's games have been producing.
CIN games have gone UNDER 4 straight
U4Cincinnati's last four games averaged 6.5 combined runs, with lines around 8.5. Four games is a thin sample. Tonight's 7.5 at Atlanta is already lower, and Atlanta's games have been going under too. The question is whether 7.5 is still set too high for how both teams have played lately.
TEAM RECORD
Reds 1-7 in Brady Singer's last 8 starts
1-7The Reds have won 1 of Singer's last 8 starts. That record covers his outings, the run support and the late innings, and the sheet doesn't split the blame. Eight starts is a modest sample, so some of this can turn. On the road in Atlanta, the 1-7 run is a reason to ask whether the Reds are priced too short with him on the mound.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 10:34 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, betmgm, caesars, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKBRADY SINGERPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5
Brady Singer over 2.5 earned runs at -140. He has allowed three or more earned runs in each of his last eight starts and in 20 of his 30 starts this season. That is a 67 percent clip against the roughly 58 percent this price asks for. The recent version of Singer is the worst of his year: 21 earned runs and 15 walks in 12.1 innings across his last three starts. His sinker, which is about half his pitches, has been hit harder in each of those outings, with an xwOBA of .431, then .500, then .692. His whiff rate in the Dodgers start was 13 percent, the lowest of his last five. He has said himself that his command is not carrying over from side work into games.
The lineup he faces makes it worse. Left-handed hitters have a .909 OPS against him, and 23 of the 31 homers he has allowed came from that side. Atlanta starts four lefties plus Ozzie Albies, a switch hitter who bats left against him. Drake Baldwin (.892 OPS vs righties) leads off, Matt Olson (.845) hits third and Michael Harris II (.817) hits fourth. Ronald Acuña Jr. (.837 vs righties) is back in the two hole after the shin contusion. Walt Weiss said this week he won't ease off his position players, and tonight's lineup card shows it. Singer's first inning ERA is 5.70, so runs can pile up before Terry Francona even thinks about the pen.
The case against: Atlanta has scored three runs in 19 innings this series. Both of those starts were by left-handers, and the Braves hit righties better (.735 OPS vs .695). The margin is also thin. Three of those eight straight overs landed on exactly three. Francona has Carson Spiers, Connor Phillips and Zach McCambley rested, so a quick hook could cap Singer at two. Olson (4 for 14) and Harris (1 for 9) have done little against him in small career samples. His one start against Atlanta in May was five innings and three runs, which cashes this by a single run. Even so, with a lineup this left-handed facing a pitcher this far off his command, I want the over at this number.
- GARY'S PICKTYLER STEPHENSONH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
Tyler Stephenson under 1.5 hits plus runs plus RBIs at -155. To get over, he needs two of the three. He has reached two in only 2 of his last 15 games, and he hasn't scored a run in any of those 15. That leaves him needing a multi-hit night or a hit that drives someone in. September has been cold for him: .211 with a .619 OPS for the month and .222 with a .581 OPS over the last 15 days. The Reds as a team have scored 2.8 runs per game over their last 10, so the runs and RBIs around him have been scarce.
Tyler Mahle is pitching like the Braves' No. 2 playoff starter. He has a 0.95 ERA over 19 innings in September and has gone five or more innings with one earned run or fewer in each of his last five starts. His season line against right-handed hitters (.292, .791 OPS) looks soft, but 18 of his 26 starts came with San Francisco, before Atlanta reworked his pitch mix toward more splitters. Weiss is praising his command of every pitch right now. Stephenson's 0 for 1 career against him tells us nothing.
The case against: Stephenson hits cleanup behind Elly De La Cruz, who is hitting .384 in September. Any single with De La Cruz on base gets him most of the way there. He is also facing a right-hander, his better side at .259 with a .760 OPS. His season average of 1.5 per game sits right on this line, which tells me the over has cashed plenty over the full year. The price is steep, too. Sal Stewart has been cold hitting third (.174 over the last week), though, which means fewer runners on for Stephenson. Against a pitcher on this kind of run, I'll lay the juice on the under.
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