Braves at Nationals

Nationals Park will be hot at 94°F with the wind blowing 7 mph toward right field, setting up a night in which neither starter deserves blind trust. Atlanta’s advantage is the sturdier path through all nine innings.

Jake Irvin owns a 5.62 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, including a 7.04 ERA over 30.2 innings at home. He has also issued 11 walks in his last 16.1 innings. That is a difficult profile against Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II, who carry respective .867, .880 and .842 OPS marks against right-handed pitching.

AJ Smith-Shawver is the reason I want the moneyline instead of Atlanta -1.5. His 5.93 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and eight walks through 13.2 innings leave Washington a legitimate path, particularly with Daylen Lile carrying a 1.533 OPS over the last seven days. Washington also owns the better season scoring rate, 5.2 runs per game to Atlanta’s 4.6.

The separation comes after the starters. Atlanta’s active bullpen has a 2.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, with a 2.53 ERA over the last seven days. Washington’s corresponding marks are 4.87, 1.43 and 7.36. The Nationals’ relievers have covered 33.0 innings over those seven days, compared with 21.1 for Atlanta. The Braves also hold the cleaner defensive record, with a .988 fielding percentage and 60 errors against Washington’s .982 and 93.

Smith-Shawver makes laying a run and a half unnecessarily aggressive, but Atlanta’s lineup, bullpen and defense provide enough ways to survive an uneven start. I’m paying -148 for the Braves simply to win.