Braves at Astros

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  GRANT HOLMESPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

  MLBAtlanta Braves· -130

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  I’m taking Holmes under 2.5 earned runs at -130. He has stayed below this line in six of his last eight starts and owns a 2.58 road ERA across 66.1 innings, while Houston has averaged only 3.6 runs over its last 10 games. His slider is the foundation: a .287 xwOBA with a 36.8% whiff rate over a substantial 782-pitch sample. Atlanta also has several rested bullpen options behind him if his pitch count rises early. The strongest concern is his contact profile beyond that slider. Holmes has allowed a 44.1% hard-hit rate, and his four-seamer, sinker and cutter have each produced an xwOBA of at least .381. Houston still has Yordan Alvarez anchoring the order in a hitter-friendly park, so traffic could turn into damage quickly.

  ×

  Grant Holmes
  Pitcher Earned Runs under 2.5

  -130 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  Atlanta Braves

  Read Gary’s Take

  I’m taking Holmes under 2.5 earned runs at -130. He has stayed below this line in six of his last eight starts and owns a 2.58 road ERA across 66.1 innings, while Houston has averaged only 3.6 runs over its last 10 games. His slider is the foundation: a .287 xwOBA with a 36.8% whiff rate over a substantial 782-pitch sample. Atlanta also has several rested bullpen options behind him if his pitch count rises early.

  The strongest concern is his contact profile beyond that slider. Holmes has allowed a 44.1% hard-hit rate, and his four-seamer, sinker and cutter have each produced an xwOBA of at least .381. Houston still has Yordan Alvarez anchoring the order in a hitter-friendly park, so traffic could turn into damage quickly.

• GARY'S PICK

  HAYDEN WESNESKIPITCHER OUTS OVER 14.5

  MLBHouston Astros· -155

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 16

  GARY'S TAKE

  I’m laying -155 on Wesneski to record over 14.5 outs, meaning he needs to complete five innings. He has reached that mark in six of his last eight starts and averages 16.2 outs across his nine-start 2026 sample. He has also been better at home, posting a 2.86 ERA over 22 innings, and Houston’s most dependable late-inning arms are rested enough that the club does not need to ask him for seven innings—just a normal five-frame start. The price is demanding, and the clearest contrary evidence is his latest outing: three innings, six hits and 62 pitches against Tampa Bay. His overall whiff rate has also declined across his recent starts, while Atlanta owns a .737 OPS against right-handed pitching and has several hot hitters at the top of the order. Another inefficient opening could bring an early hook before the fifth is complete.

  ×

  Hayden Wesneski
  Pitcher Outs over 14.5

  -155 · CASHED · ACTUAL 16

  Houston Astros

  Read Gary’s Take

  I’m laying -155 on Wesneski to record over 14.5 outs, meaning he needs to complete five innings. He has reached that mark in six of his last eight starts and averages 16.2 outs across his nine-start 2026 sample. He has also been better at home, posting a 2.86 ERA over 22 innings, and Houston’s most dependable late-inning arms are rested enough that the club does not need to ask him for seven innings—just a normal five-frame start.

  The price is demanding, and the clearest contrary evidence is his latest outing: three innings, six hits and 62 pitches against Tampa Bay. His overall whiff rate has also declined across his recent starts, while Atlanta owns a .737 OPS against right-handed pitching and has several hot hitters at the top of the order. Another inefficient opening could bring an early hook before the fifth is complete.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.