Braves at Marlins

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The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  ESTEURY RUIZHITS UNDER 0.5

  MLBMiami Marlins· +111

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  This one pays plus money to ask a cold contact hitter for a clean sheet, and Ruiz has been earning that fade on his own record. He bats sixth tonight with 2.7 plate appearances a game, having spent most of the season as a seventh or ninth hitter. The season slash is .217, and the strikeout rate is the loud number: 78 strikeouts in 207 at-bats, a rate that leaves him exposed every trip. September has been a wipeout, .128 average and .370 OPS over 39 at-bats, and the last fifteen days read 4 for 30 with no home runs. His expected line of .178 expected average sits under even that .217 actual, which says the contact quality behind the results is worse, not better. The under needs one clean game against him, and in his last fifteen he failed to record a hit in most of them. The strongest case against is the slot and the legs. He is batting sixth, so a good offensive night could hand him a fourth trip, and his own platoon line against lefties (.220 with a .762 OPS) is the friendlier half of his splits compared with the .650 he carries against righties. He also runs, 33 steals on the year, so an infield hit or a bunt single is live at any moment, and single contact beats this line. The plus price is the market charging me nothing for the slump and everything for the speed. Sample: 91 games for the season rate, fifteen games for the current form.

  ×

  Esteury Ruiz
  Hits under 0.5

  +111 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  Miami Marlins

  Read Gary’s Take

  This one pays plus money to ask a cold contact hitter for a clean sheet, and Ruiz has been earning that fade on his own record. He bats sixth tonight with 2.7 plate appearances a game, having spent most of the season as a seventh or ninth hitter. The season slash is .217, and the strikeout rate is the loud number: 78 strikeouts in 207 at-bats, a rate that leaves him exposed every trip. September has been a wipeout, .128 average and .370 OPS over 39 at-bats, and the last fifteen days read 4 for 30 with no home runs. His expected line of .178 expected average sits under even that .217 actual, which says the contact quality behind the results is worse, not better. The under needs one clean game against him, and in his last fifteen he failed to record a hit in most of them.

  The strongest case against is the slot and the legs. He is batting sixth, so a good offensive night could hand him a fourth trip, and his own platoon line against lefties (.220 with a .762 OPS) is the friendlier half of his splits compared with the .650 he carries against righties. He also runs, 33 steals on the year, so an infield hit or a bunt single is live at any moment, and single contact beats this line. The plus price is the market charging me nothing for the slump and everything for the speed. Sample: 91 games for the season rate, fifteen games for the current form.

• GARY'S PICK

  MATT OLSONWALKS UNDER 0.5

  MLBAtlanta Braves· -164

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  This is a bet on Olson's own bat and his own discipline, and the price asks him to simply avoid a free pass across four or five trips. He bats third, 4.3 plate appearances a game, 161 games of sample. The season line is 0.4 walks per game, the last fifteen games drop to 0.3, and the last seven days are down to 0.1, which is one walk in a week. He is a first-pitch, power-first profile with 169 strikeouts this season, and a hitter wired that way is not the one who grinds out bases on balls. Jack Ralston works a splitter-heavy mix at 52.5 percent usage and has been around the zone enough to keep at-bats moving. The under cashes the moment Olson goes without a walk, something he has managed in the clear majority of his games. The strongest case against is the arm room behind Ralston. Victor Vodnik has 32 walks in 57.2 innings, Calvin Faucher 36 in 67.1, Josh Ekness 20 in 29.2, and Ralston himself has walked 8 in 16 innings. Olson is likely to see two or three of those arms and a 64-walk hitter can be handed a base without swinging. That is the real risk at a price this short, and it is why my conviction sits modest rather than high. Sample: 161 games for the season rate, seven games for the recent rate.

  ×

  Matt Olson
  Walks under 0.5

  -164 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  Atlanta Braves

  Read Gary’s Take

  This is a bet on Olson's own bat and his own discipline, and the price asks him to simply avoid a free pass across four or five trips. He bats third, 4.3 plate appearances a game, 161 games of sample. The season line is 0.4 walks per game, the last fifteen games drop to 0.3, and the last seven days are down to 0.1, which is one walk in a week. He is a first-pitch, power-first profile with 169 strikeouts this season, and a hitter wired that way is not the one who grinds out bases on balls. Jack Ralston works a splitter-heavy mix at 52.5 percent usage and has been around the zone enough to keep at-bats moving. The under cashes the moment Olson goes without a walk, something he has managed in the clear majority of his games.

  The strongest case against is the arm room behind Ralston. Victor Vodnik has 32 walks in 57.2 innings, Calvin Faucher 36 in 67.1, Josh Ekness 20 in 29.2, and Ralston himself has walked 8 in 16 innings. Olson is likely to see two or three of those arms and a 64-walk hitter can be handed a base without swinging. That is the real risk at a price this short, and it is why my conviction sits modest rather than high. Sample: 161 games for the season rate, seven games for the recent rate.

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