Petco Park is packed again as the Padres try to close out the Cubs in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. Nick Pivetta takes the ball against Kevin Gausman, who pitches with the Cubs' season on the line. My pick rests on two things: the late innings, and the fastball matchup at the top of the Padres' order. Neither starter is likely to go deep. Pivetta has not pitched past 5.0 innings this season, and Gausman is starting on a left shoulder he hurt in his final regular-season start. That puts the game on the bullpens. The Game 1 blowout left the Padres' back end fully rested, with three full days off each for Mason Miller (1.67 ERA, 129 strikeouts in 70 innings), Bradgley Rodriguez (2.31 ERA) and Adrian Morejon (2.83 ERA). The Cubs' rested late-inning arms are Daniel Palencia (3.64 ERA) and Ryan Zeferjahn (3.88 ERA, 40 walks in 69.2 innings). If the game is close late, that gap should decide it. The second piece is Gausman's four-seamer, which he throws 50.6% of the time and which allows a .344 xwOBA. Fernando Tatis Jr. has a .434 xwOBA against four-seamers and is hitting .368/.455/.684 over his last 10 games. Gausman has allowed 8 homers in his last 27.1 innings. His weaker platoon side, right-handed hitters (.766 OPS allowed), faces five right-handed Padres bats. Over their last 30 games, the Padres are 17-4 against right-handed starters and score 5.9 runs per game. The best argument against this is real: over the full season the Cubs are the better team. Their +147 run differential dwarfs the Padres' +41. Their defense leads MLB with 116 Defensive Runs Saved. Pivetta's line rests on just 89 batted balls. And facing elimination, Counsell has Holmes, Peterson and Imanaga rested and nothing to save them for. I'm still taking the Padres. The Cubs' offense has scored 3.3 runs per game over its last 10, and to force a Game 3 it has to get past a rested, elite bullpen. The season-long talent argument only pays off if the Cubs' bats show up tonight. The Padres' bullpen edge doesn't depend on anything changing.
Petco Park is packed again as the Padres try to close out the Cubs in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. Nick Pivetta takes the ball against Kevin Gausman, who pitches with the Cubs' season on the line. My pick rests on two things: the late innings, and the fastball matchup at the top of the Padres' order.
Neither starter is likely to go deep. Pivetta has not pitched past 5.0 innings this season, and Gausman is starting on a left shoulder he hurt in his final regular-season start. That puts the game on the bullpens. The Game 1 blowout left the Padres' back end fully rested, with three full days off each for Mason Miller (1.67 ERA, 129 strikeouts in 70 innings), Bradgley Rodriguez (2.31 ERA) and Adrian Morejon (2.83 ERA). The Cubs' rested late-inning arms are Daniel Palencia (3.64 ERA) and Ryan Zeferjahn (3.88 ERA, 40 walks in 69.2 innings). If the game is close late, that gap should decide it.
The second piece is Gausman's four-seamer, which he throws 50.6% of the time and which allows a .344 xwOBA. Fernando Tatis Jr. has a .434 xwOBA against four-seamers and is hitting .368/.455/.684 over his last 10 games. Gausman has allowed 8 homers in his last 27.1 innings. His weaker platoon side, right-handed hitters (.766 OPS allowed), faces five right-handed Padres bats. Over their last 30 games, the Padres are 17-4 against right-handed starters and score 5.9 runs per game.
The best argument against this is real: over the full season the Cubs are the better team. Their +147 run differential dwarfs the Padres' +41. Their defense leads MLB with 116 Defensive Runs Saved. Pivetta's line rests on just 89 batted balls. And facing elimination, Counsell has Holmes, Peterson and Imanaga rested and nothing to save them for. I'm still taking the Padres. The Cubs' offense has scored 3.3 runs per game over its last 10, and to force a Game 3 it has to get past a rested, elite bullpen. The season-long talent argument only pays off if the Cubs' bats show up tonight. The Padres' bullpen edge doesn't depend on anything changing.
Padres Moneyline