White Sox at Cubs
O/U 8 · RL Cubs -1.5 · Wrigley Field
Cubs ML-142
CONF 64%
LLostFinal 3-0
The read
Crosstown rivals close the series under the afternoon sky at Wrigley, with the Cubs chasing a sweep after consecutive walk-off wins and the White Sox trying to salvage the finale. Clay Holmes gets the full start for the Cubs; Sean Newcomb opens a planned bullpen game for the South Siders.
Newcomb deserves respect with a 2.51 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and only a 5.5% barrel rate allowed. The issue is how few outs the White Sox expect him to cover. His most recent appearance was 2.1 innings and 33 pitches on August 16, leaving José Urquidy—8.10 ERA and 2.20 WHIP through ten innings—as the projected bulk option. Holmes offers the more stable path through the middle innings. He carries a 2.56 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and just delivered 6.2 scoreless innings of one-hit baseball. The lineup matchup supports him too: the White Sox have a .730 OPS against right-handed pitching, while the Cubs have an .808 OPS against lefties.
The bullpen numbers over the full season are close, but the Cubs have the better recent mark, 3.29 over the last seven games against 3.65 for the White Sox. Both groups have worked, yet Chicago’s bullpen-game requirement creates the greater exposure. The Cubs also own the cleaner defensive record—47 errors and a .990 fielding percentage against 68 and .985—which fits Holmes’ 1.67 GO/AO profile. Pete Crow-Armstrong is 5-for-8 with three homers in this series, while Alex Bregman and Nico Hoerner are each 5-for-9. I want the Cubs to win, but two straight games decided on the final swing and the wind blowing in make me unwilling to demand a two-run margin. At -142, the moneyline is the ticket that matches the read.
Props on this game
2Alex BregmanOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-110
LActual 0
Bregman is seeing the ball exceptionally well, batting .339 with five homers and 16 RBIs over his last 15 games. He has cleared this number in 10 of those 15 and is 5-for-9 in this series, including the tying and winning hits Tuesday.
Batting third gives him multiple paths to two combined hits, runs and RBIs. Newcomb is only expected to open, so Bregman should get most of his plate appearances against a heavily worked bullpen. With Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki setting the table ahead of him, I like the over at nearly even money.
Clay HolmesOVER 16.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-118
LActual 16
Holmes needs to record one out in the sixth, a mark he has cleared in five of his last eight starts. He looked fully stretched out Friday, needing only 80 pitches to complete 6.2 scoreless innings while allowing one hit.
The White Sox carry a modest .730 OPS against right-handed pitching, and the wind coming in should help keep their power in check. Holmes' ground-ball approach also fits Chicago's excellent defense. After two straight games that required significant bullpen work, I expect the Cubs to give him every reasonable chance to work through six.
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