Sports Picks Archive — Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Tigers· -154

The rubber match is set at PNC Park, with Paul Skenes and Jackson Jobe carrying two very different levels of certainty to the mound. I’m backing Pittsburgh on the moneyline because the starting-pitching advantage is substantial enough to lay this price without asking the Pirates to cover a run line. Skenes has a 3.88 ERA and 3.13 xERA across 25 starts and 134.2 innings. Jobe has worked only 8.2 innings in two starts, producing a 6.23 ERA and 7.66 xERA. Skenes’ recent 5.79 ERA over three starts is a legitimate concern, and I’m not brushing aside the nine walks in 14 innings. But the season-long pitch results remain strong: his four-seamer has allowed a .299 xwOBA, while Jobe’s four-seamer sits at .501. Skenes has also held left-handed hitters to a .649 OPS, an important matchup against a Detroit lineup containing five left-handed bats. Jobe has allowed a .979 OPS to lefties, although that figure comes from only 23 at-bats and needs to be treated cautiously. Pittsburgh has also produced the stronger season line against right-handed pitching, batting .261 with a .764 OPS compared with Detroit’s .248 and .738. Oneil Cruz returned with a home run yesterday, giving this confirmed Pirates lineup another demonstrated power threat against a starter who allowed nine hits, six earned runs and two homers in his last outing. The bullpens keep me away from Pittsburgh -1.5: Detroit’s current relief group owns a 3.23 ERA, while Pittsburgh’s is at 3.51, and PNC Park carries a pitcher-friendly 0.94 factor. This sets up as a spot where getting the winner matters more than demanding separation. I’ll pay -154 for Skenes, the better right-handed-pitching matchup and home field, while protecting the ticket if Pittsburgh gets it done by a single run.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mets· -134

Rubber-match daylight at Citi Field: the Mets and Padres split the first two, and now Michael King gets the ball opposite Robert Stock. I’m backing San Diego on the moneyline at -134. The pitcher-friendly park and New York’s competitive recent form keep me away from laying -1.5, but the Padres have the more dependable path to an outright win across nine innings. The fulcrum is reliability. King owns a 3.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 25 starts, has held left- and right-handed hitters to the same .219 average, and has completed at least six innings in four of his last five. Stock has a 6.57 ERA and 1.86 WHIP across only 12.1 innings. His 0.96 ERA in two Citi Field starts deserves respect, especially after he allowed no earned runs over 4.1 innings against Washington. Still, that is a narrow sample beside King’s full season. Even the expected numbers—King at a 4.38 xERA and Stock at 5.08—reduce the gap without reversing it. San Diego also has the stronger structure once the starters leave. The Padres’ current bullpen carries a 2.23 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, compared with a 3.10 ERA and 1.05 WHIP for the Mets’ current group, and Mason Miller has a 0.86 ERA with 31 saves. Offensively, San Diego has averaged 4.7 runs over its last ten games while New York has averaged 3.9, although Bo Bichette, Carson Benge, Jared Young and Luis Torrens give the Mets enough current form to keep this dangerous. That is why I want the moneyline: King’s steadier workload, San Diego’s deeper late-inning structure and the lineup’s measured matchups against Stock give the Padres more ways to finish the job, without requiring a particular winning margin.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Braves· +100

It’s getaway afternoon at Target Field, with Minnesota chasing a sweep and Atlanta trying to stop a quiet series from becoming a lost one. The established starting-pitcher floor belongs to the Twins. Taj Bradley has allowed 11 earned runs with 10 walks over his last 15.0 innings, but his 3.12 ERA at Target Field and cutter’s .200 xwOBA give me more to trust than AJ Smith-Shawver’s one-start major-league sample. Smith-Shawver used his four-seam fastball 58.0% of the time in that appearance, generating a 5.3% whiff rate and .436 xwOBA while allowing a 53.8% hard-hit rate across just 13 balls in play. That sample is too small for a verdict, but not too small to recognize the uncertainty. These lineups have nearly identical season production against right-handers: Minnesota owns a .250 average and .740 OPS, while Atlanta sits at .249 and .733. The difference in this series has been execution. Josh Bell is 4-for-7 with one homer and four RBIs, Luke Keaschall is 4-for-9, and Minnesota has consistently created the first meaningful pressure. Atlanta has scored three runs across the first two games, with Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley combining for three hits in 23 at-bats. Records do not guarantee a repeat, but they accurately describe which lineup is arriving at this finale with cleaner at-bats. Atlanta owns the better season bullpen profile, 2.56 ERA to Minnesota’s 3.70, and that is the strongest argument against this ticket. Recent relief work runs the other direction: Minnesota’s pen has a 2.28 ERA over its last seven games, compared with Atlanta’s 4.57. My read is that Bradley gives Minnesota enough length to reach its available leverage arms, while Smith-Shawver leaves more uncertainty in the middle innings. Atlanta’s +112 run differential against Minnesota’s -43 shows the broader quality gap, but this price only asks the Twins to win this game. At +100, I’m backing the home side outright.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs White Sox· -142

Crosstown rivals close the series under the afternoon sky at Wrigley, with the Cubs chasing a sweep after consecutive walk-off wins and the White Sox trying to salvage the finale. Clay Holmes gets the full start for the Cubs; Sean Newcomb opens a planned bullpen game for the South Siders. Newcomb deserves respect with a 2.51 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and only a 5.5% barrel rate allowed. The issue is how few outs the White Sox expect him to cover. His most recent appearance was 2.1 innings and 33 pitches on August 16, leaving José Urquidy—8.10 ERA and 2.20 WHIP through ten innings—as the projected bulk option. Holmes offers the more stable path through the middle innings. He carries a 2.56 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and just delivered 6.2 scoreless innings of one-hit baseball. The lineup matchup supports him too: the White Sox have a .730 OPS against right-handed pitching, while the Cubs have an .808 OPS against lefties. The bullpen numbers over the full season are close, but the Cubs have the better recent mark, 3.29 over the last seven games against 3.65 for the White Sox. Both groups have worked, yet Chicago’s bullpen-game requirement creates the greater exposure. The Cubs also own the cleaner defensive record—47 errors and a .990 fielding percentage against 68 and .985—which fits Holmes’ 1.67 GO/AO profile. Pete Crow-Armstrong is 5-for-8 with three homers in this series, while Alex Bregman and Nico Hoerner are each 5-for-9. I want the Cubs to win, but two straight games decided on the final swing and the wind blowing in make me unwilling to demand a two-run margin. At -142, the moneyline is the ticket that matches the read.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Red Sox· +146

Fenway hosts the getaway game with Boston chasing a sweep after victories of 11-1 and 9-4. The Red Sox have owned the series, but Arizona is finally handing the ball to the pitcher capable of changing its direction, and I’m taking the Diamondbacks at plus money. Brandon Pfaadt enters with 20.2 IP and 0 ER over his last three starts, and he owns a 1.73 road ERA with Arizona going 5-1 in his six road starts. This Boston lineup presents plenty of right-handed traffic, the side against which Pfaadt has held hitters to a .212 average and .581 OPS. The Red Sox have produced a .248 average and .715 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Arizona has been markedly better against lefties at .274/.783. Payton Tolle has been outstanding himself—his last three starts produced a 1.35 ERA—but this is a legitimate handedness matchup for the Diamondbacks. Corbin Carroll owns a .329 average and .996 OPS against left-handed pitching, while Gabriel Moreno carries a .365 average and 1.068 OPS over his last 15 days. Boston’s bullpen is the danger. It has allowed only 2 ER in 15.1 IP over the last three games, while Arizona’s relief corps has surrendered 12 ER in 11.1 IP. That makes Pfaadt’s length central to the wager: he has completed at least six innings in each of his last four starts, giving Arizona a route around the portion of its staff that unraveled earlier in this series. If the Diamondbacks can reach their higher-leverage options, Brandyn Garcia owns a 2.52 ERA and Juan Morillo a 2.37 ERA. The bullpen disparity is real, but +146 compensates me for it. My read calls for Arizona to reverse the series behind Pfaadt and win, so I want the moneyline rather than paying -162 for a +1.5 cushion.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Phillies· +122

Citizens Bank Park gets a division finale with Philadelphia riding five straight wins and looking for the sweep. Miami answers with Sandy Alcantara, and that starting-pitcher advantage is strong enough for me to take the underdog outright. Alcantara has allowed one earned run over his last 20 innings, and he owns a 1.38 ERA across two starts against Philadelphia this season. Aaron Nola has improved lately, posting a 3.38 ERA over his last three starts, but his season-long home mark remains 6.23. Philadelphia has the better late-game structure, and that is the danger. Its bullpen has a 3.22 ERA over the last seven games, compared with Miami’s 6.57, and the Phillies have already used the later innings to win twice in this series. Nola has also held Miami to one earned run in 11⅔ innings across two meetings. But Alcantara has consistently worked six or seven innings recently, giving Miami a credible path to minimize its bullpen exposure. His 5.4% barrel rate and 35.5% hard-hit rate also compare favorably with Nola’s 9.7% and 41.6%. The prices decide the ticket. Miami +1.5 at -172 offers protection in a matchup that can stay close, but that insurance is too expensive when my central read says Miami has the pitcher most capable of controlling the game. At +122, I am betting Alcantara’s current form against Nola’s contact vulnerability and 6.23 home ERA. Philadelphia’s winning streak, bullpen advantage and 5-1 home record against Miami explain why the Phillies are favored, but they do not outweigh this pitching gap enough for me to lay -132. I want the plus money and the Marlins to win outright.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Orioles· -106

Camden Yards gets another tight AL East night, with New York trying to turn Tuesday’s 3-1 opener into control of the series and Baltimore trying to answer. I’m taking the Yankees moneyline at -106 because this ticket asks only for the stronger late-game structure to win, not for New York to create separation. Both starters offer the opponent an opening, but Chris Bassitt’s vulnerability is more directly aligned with tonight’s batting order. New York starts seven left-handed hitters against Bassitt, who has allowed lefties a .327 average and .926 OPS. Baltimore starts five left-handed hitters and one switch-hitter against Will Warren, who has allowed lefties a .274 average and .806 OPS. Both lineups have an opportunity, but the split is considerably harsher for Bassitt, who also carries a 1.62 WHIP and has made only one start since a 72-day absence. The individual form cuts both ways—Trent Grisham is 8-for-24 with four homers over his last seven, while Pete Alonso is 11-for-23 with two—so I’m not treating this as an automatic offensive mismatch. Warren is why my confidence stays measured. He owns a 7.71 August ERA and allowed five earned runs with three homers in his last start. However, he has a 2.25 ERA across two starts against Baltimore this season, with New York winning both. The deciding separator is behind him: the Yankees’ current bullpen has a 2.60 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, compared with Baltimore’s 4.06 and 1.23. Over the last seven games, that advantage has widened to 1.46 versus 3.20. If Warren supplies a competitive bridge into the middle innings, my read trusts New York’s relief corps to finish the job. The moneyline captures that advantage without demanding an additional margin.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Giants· -102

Wednesday night at Progressive Field, Cleveland hands the ball to Parker Messick with its postseason hopes still alive, while San Francisco sends Matt Wilkinson out for his major-league debut. The moneyline is too expensive, but the run line gives me a playable price on the side with the stronger pitching path. Messick owns a 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through 24 starts, and he has allowed no more than two earned runs in each of his last six outings. He now faces a Giants club averaging 3.1 runs over its last ten games, compared with Cleveland’s 4.3. Wilkinson could make his deception play immediately, but there is no major-league evidence behind that possibility. What we have is a 5.15 ERA across 43.2 Triple-A innings and uncertainty about how long San Francisco intends to use him. That matters because Cleveland carries the deeper bullpen behind its starter. The Guardians’ current relief group has a 3.29 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, while the Giants’ unit sits at 3.77 and 1.40. Over the last seven games, Cleveland’s bullpen has a 2.49 ERA against San Francisco’s 4.56. Messick can reduce Cleveland’s bullpen exposure; Wilkinson may create the opposite situation for the Giants. Jo Adell and Rhys Hoskins are fresh absences from Cleveland’s lineup, so I am not expecting yesterday’s eight-run performance to repeat on command. That keeps my confidence controlled, especially with the Guardians batting only .230 with a .672 OPS against left-handed pitching. Still, this bet does not require another offensive eruption. My read is that Messick establishes control, Cleveland makes Wilkinson and the San Francisco bullpen cover the harder innings, and the better relief group protects the advantage. At -102, I’m laying the 1.5 runs and trusting Cleveland’s pitching separation over the full game.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cardinals· -138

Great American Ball Park hosts another chapter of this National League Central fight, with St. Louis carrying the better recent form and Cincinnati handing the ball to the best starter in the matchup. For me, tonight comes down to Chase Burns being worth trusting without demanding that the Reds cover a run line. Burns is 14-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, including a 1.98 ERA at home. Matthew Liberatore enters at 5-10 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, and his 4.98 road ERA does little to close that gap. The first-inning numbers sharpen it further: Burns owns a 0.78 ERA there, compared with Liberatore’s 6.75. The handedness does not give the Cardinals an easy escape. Burns has held left-handed hitters to a .213 average and .676 OPS, while right-handed hitters sit at .189 and .500; St. Louis is starting five lefties and four righties. Cincinnati sends six right-handed hitters and two switch-hitters against Liberatore, who has allowed righties a .280 average and .790 OPS. The Reds have also produced a .741 OPS against left-handed pitching, compared with St. Louis’ .695 OPS against right-handers. Cincinnati has been cold, but this is a much friendlier starting-pitcher assignment than the one facing the Cardinals. St. Louis being 7-3 over its last 10 while Cincinnati is 4-6 is the warning label, as is the Cardinals bullpen’s 1.75 ERA over its last seven games against the Reds’ 6.08. But Gordon Graceffo, George Soriano, Ryne Stanek and Riley O’Brien have all worked on both of the past two game days, while no Cincinnati reliever has done so. My read is that Burns gives Cincinnati the control and length needed to keep that bullpen comparison from deciding the night. I’m taking the moneyline because the edge calls for a Reds victory, not a requirement that they manufacture a two-run cushion.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rays· -130

The lights come up inside the Trop with Toronto trying to carry Tuesday’s breakthrough into Game 2 and Tampa Bay handing the ball to Drew Rasmussen to stop it. Rasmussen gives the Rays the starting-pitching advantage, but this ticket is about whether that advantage is large enough to justify laying 1.5 runs. My answer is no: I’m taking the Blue Jays +1.5 at -130. Rasmussen has been outstanding, posting a 1.00 ERA with 21 strikeouts and four walks over his last three starts. Still, Toronto has faced him three times this season and scored eight earned runs across 17 innings. Tampa Bay won all three games, but the Blue Jays demonstrated that they can make Rasmussen work rather than simply disappear. Max Scherzer’s 6.59 season ERA is the danger on this side, yet his current work deserves more weight tonight: four earned runs over his last 16⅓ innings, with 13 strikeouts and three walks. His 3.21 ERA in three road starts is also much more relevant than his ugly home record. I don’t need Scherzer to outpitch Rasmussen; I need his recent version to keep Toronto attached to the game. The late innings are where I want the extra run. Tampa Bay’s bullpen owns the superior season ERA, 2.97 to Toronto’s 3.17, but recent usage has changed the immediate picture. Rays relievers have surrendered 15 earned runs over 15⅓ innings in their last three games, while Toronto’s bullpen has allowed four over 15 innings. Louis Varland and Tyler Rogers were not needed in Tuesday’s victory, giving the Blue Jays their best late-game route if Scherzer keeps this competitive. Toronto is 7-3 over its last 10; Tampa Bay is 6-4, so this is not a weak club receiving protection against a rolling favorite. Rasmussen may ultimately steer the Rays home, but my read does not call for trusting Tampa Bay to clear two runs. The sharper ticket is Toronto with the cushion.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Athletics· -174

Wednesday night at Kauffman, Kansas City goes for its third straight win in this series after taking the opener with offense and stealing Tuesday’s game in the ninth. The Royals are rolling, but this ticket starts with the pitching setup: Seth Lugo has a 3.70 ERA at home, while Jeffrey Springs returns from the injured list with a 6.17 season ERA and 18 days since his last major-league start. Neither starter has been sharp lately—Lugo owns a 7.47 ERA over his last three starts and Springs is at 6.97—so I’m not pretending this is an ace mismatch. I trust Lugo’s established work at Kauffman more than Springs’ return spot. Kansas City’s lineup is finally carrying some depth around Bobby Witt Jr. and Jac Caglianone. Witt is hitting .348 with a 1.160 OPS over his last seven games, while Caglianone is at .435 with a 1.067 OPS. Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino have also returned and produced hits in both games of this series. Oakland’s offense deserves respect—it has averaged 4.9 runs over its last ten compared with Kansas City’s 4.2—but the Athletics have repeatedly needed their pitching staff to survive traffic and protect narrow margins. That has not been the dependable part of their game. The late innings settle the decision for me. Kansas City’s bullpen has delivered a 2.63 ERA over its last seven games, compared with Oakland’s 4.15, and no Royals reliever worked both of the previous two game days. Hogan Harris has thrown 44 pitches over two appearances in Oakland’s last three games and blew Tuesday’s save. Behind those bullpens, Kansas City has committed no errors in its last seven games while Oakland has made six. I’m taking the moneyline instead of demanding a two-run victory because Lugo’s recent form and Oakland’s capable offense leave room for another tight game. At -174, my ticket is simply on Kansas City to finish the job.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mariners· -122

American Family Field gets round two with the echoes of Milwaukee’s historic rout still hanging over the diamond. The Brewers won 22-0 last night, but this ticket is not a bet on that lightning striking twice—the game was only 1-0 through four innings before Seattle’s pitching staff came apart. I’m backing Milwaukee because the full nine-inning structure remains stronger, and the moneyline lets me survive the tight game Logan Gilbert is capable of creating. Gilbert is the biggest obstacle to this bet. He carries a 3.28 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and a 2.25 road ERA, while holding left-handed hitters to a .197 average and .622 OPS. Dustin May’s season line is weaker at 4.13 with a 1.25 WHIP, and Seattle’s left-handed hitters get his more vulnerable side: lefties have hit .266 with a .732 OPS against him. But May’s immediate form gives Milwaukee a credible answer. He has allowed three earned runs over his last 18 innings, compared with five over Gilbert’s last 19.2. I’m not asking May to outclass Gilbert; I’m asking him to keep Milwaukee attached to the game. That brings me to the separator. Milwaukee is hitting .258 with a .748 OPS against right-handed pitching, compared with Seattle’s .235 and .705. Behind the starters, the Brewers’ bullpen owns a 3.56 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, while Seattle’s is at 3.90 and 1.29. Over the last seven games, that gap has widened to 2.95 versus 12.23. Seattle’s principal late-inning arms remain available, so I am not calling the bullpen empty, but Milwaukee has the more trustworthy bridge and Trevor Megill’s 2.44 ERA and 0.83 WHIP at the finish. Gilbert is why I’m staying away from Milwaukee -1.5; the deeper lineup and relief advantage are why I’m laying -122 for the Brewers to win outright.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rangers· +110

Under the closed roof at Globe Life Field, Washington tries to stop a four-game slide while Texas looks to build on Tuesday’s shutout. But tonight brings a complete change on the mound, and I’m backing the Nationals at plus money because Cade Cavalli gives them the clearest advantage in this matchup. Cavalli owns a 2.25 ERA over his last three starts and a 1.73 first-inning ERA; Kumar Rocker enters with an 8.10 ERA over his last three and a 9.00 first-inning ERA. Washington went 5-1 across Cavalli’s last six starts, while Texas went 2-4 across Rocker’s. The lineup construction strengthens that pitching edge. Rocker has allowed left-handed hitters a .291 average and .858 OPS, compared with .213 and .626 against righties. Washington starts five left-handed hitters and two switch hitters, putting its order on the favorable side of his most pronounced season split. The Nationals have also been the stronger offense over the full season, averaging 5.3 runs with a .762 OPS compared with Texas at 4.1 runs and a .710 OPS. Their four-game losing streak is real, but I’m not letting Tuesday’s result obscure a much better matchup tonight. Texas has the superior defense and the slightly better season bullpen ERA, so this is no walkover. Still, Washington’s bullpen has the better recent number—a 4.82 ERA over the last seven games against 6.45 for Texas—and Cavalli has completed at least six innings in each of his last six starts. That gives Washington a cleaner route to Orlando Ribalta and Clayton Beeter without exposing the middle relief for long. My read says the market is leaning too heavily on venue, streak and Tuesday’s result. With the superior starter, the stronger season offense and a lineup aligned with Rocker’s vulnerability, Washington is worth backing to win outright.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Astros· +134

The roof is closed at Daikin Park, and Game 2 brings a fascinating contrast: Houston turns to Ethan Pecko for his major-league debut while the Angels counter with Walbert Ureña, the same rookie who has already frustrated this Astros lineup twice. At plus money, I’m backing Los Angeles to win outright. Ureña is the anchor of the bet. He carries a 2.67 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through 20 starts, with a 4.8% barrel rate allowed and a 33.6% hard-hit rate. In two starts against Houston this season, he has permitted one earned run over 11 innings; tonight’s Astros hitters are collectively 5-for-38 against him. Pecko arrives with no major-league track record after posting a 4.94 ERA over 74.2 Triple-A innings. A debut is not an automatic fade, but I’m unwilling to treat that uncertainty as equivalent to Ureña’s established performance—especially when Houston is being asked to solve a pitcher it has already seen twice without solving. The argument against Los Angeles is legitimate. Houston averages 4.6 runs per game with a .729 OPS, while the Angels average 4.0 with a .684 OPS. The Astros are also 34-28 following losses, compared with the Angels’ 19-30 mark following wins. Those numbers explain why Houston is favored, but they do not outweigh tonight’s pitching configuration for me. Los Angeles also brings the better recent bullpen line: six earned runs over 22.1 innings in its last seven games, compared with Houston’s 12 earned runs over 33.1 innings. My read is that Ureña gives the Angels control of the early game, their lineup puts enough pressure on Pecko in his debut, and the bullpen carries the better position late. I want the full plus-money return rather than paying for the protection of the run line.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rockies· -128

The Dodgers step into the Coors Field night with a sweep in their sights, while Kyle Freeland takes the ball trying to halt an offense that has scored 18 runs in this series. My ticket is Los Angeles -1.5 at -128 because the matchup points beyond simply picking the outright winner. Freeland has earned respect with a 1.27 ERA over his last 21.1 innings, but this Dodgers lineup scored 14 earned runs against him in nine innings across two meetings this season, going 18-for-42 with four home runs. He has also allowed a .302 average and .909 OPS to right-handed hitters, and Los Angeles starts five right-handed bats tonight. Roki Sasaki does not need to be untouchable for this bet to work. He has allowed no more than two earned runs in any of his last five starts, and Colorado’s left-heavy lineup faces the better side of his platoon results: a .728 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters compared with .830 against right-handers. There is real danger here—the Rockies went 11-for-40 with three home runs against Sasaki in their two earlier meetings—but his splitter and slider carry .249 and .254 expected wOBA marks. If he controls traffic better than he did during the five-walk outing last time, Los Angeles should have the stronger starting-pitcher position. The bullpen comparison is what completes the run-line case. The Dodgers’ current relief group owns a 2.88 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 122.0 innings, compared with Colorado’s 5.44 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over 51.1. Colorado has been better recently, posting a 2.84 bullpen ERA over the last seven games against Los Angeles’ 4.15, so I am not treating the late innings as automatic. But Brock Stewart returns with a 2.45 ERA, giving the Dodgers another option behind Sasaki. The same paths that put Los Angeles ahead—another productive look at Freeland and the deeper relief group behind Sasaki—also support the -1.5 rather than merely an outright-win ticket.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

FERNANDO TATIS JR.RUNS SCORED OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -117

Fernando Tatis Jr. is locked in at the plate, and today’s setup at Citi Field gives him multiple avenues to touch home. He has scored at least one run in 11 of his last 15 games, powered by a second-half surge that includes three home runs in his last seven days and a .977 August OPS. As San Diego's leadoff hitter, he gets maximum plate appearances and faces Robert Stock right out of the chute. Stock enters with a 6.57 ERA, a 1.86 WHIP, and a 9.00 ERA in the first inning across his three starts this month. The right-hander has surrendered 12 hits and 8 walks over 12.1 innings, creating early traffic in every outing. With Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, and Ty France behind him in the order, any time Tatis gets on base early he has a high-percentage path to scoring. Getting -117 on a leadoff hitter in this form against a vulnerable starter is strong value.

GARY'S PICK

ROBERT STOCKPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBNew York Mets· -105

Robert Stock’s return to a big-league rotation has been a patchwork solution for New York, and asking him to record 15 outs against a surging Padres lineup is a tall order. Stock has failed to complete five innings in two of his three starts this month, topping out at 4.1 IP (13 outs) against Washington and getting yanked after 3.0 IP (9 outs) against Pittsburgh. Stock's pitch counts tell the story: he threw 70, 80, and 84 pitches in those starts, and interim manager Andy Green noted Stock was out of gas by the fourth inning in Pittsburgh. San Diego's top of the order presents immediate fatigue for a pitcher who has walked eight batters and allowed 12 hits in 12.1 innings. Facing a Padres offense averaging 4.7 runs over its last ten games, Stock is unlikely to be allowed to turn the order over a third time. Taking Under 14.5 outs at -105 is the play.

GARY'S PICK

JACKSON JOBEPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +136

Jobe has thrown 71 and 74 pitches in his first two starts back, recording 15 outs in the clean outing and only 11 when his command faltered. Detroit is still managing his workload, so this under cashes if Pittsburgh prevents him from completing the fifth inning. The matchup can create that resistance. Pittsburgh owns a .261 average and .764 OPS against right-handed pitching, with five hitters attacking Jobe from the left side. His four-seamer has allowed a .501 xwOBA, and left-handed hitters went 6-for-15 with two homers against him in his last start. The sample is small, but the combination of workload and matchup makes plus money on fewer than 15 outs worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

PAUL SKENESPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +118

Skenes has issued nine walks over his last 14 innings and has gone over this number in five of his last eight starts. His recent dip has been accompanied by shorter outings and less consistent execution, so he does not need to pitch deep for two walks to get home. Detroit also has enough patient hitters to extend counts. Kevin McGonigle and Zach McKinstry have each drawn a walk in seven of their last 15 games, Spencer Torkelson has done it six times, and Gleyber Torres and Dillon Dingler have each done it five times. The extra rest could sharpen Skenes, but +118 is a favorable price on his current command trend.

GARY'S PICK

TAJ BRADLEYPITCHER WALKS OVER 2.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +143

Bradley has issued at least three walks in five of his last six starts, including 10 across only 15 innings in his last three. His command problems have shortened his last two outings, and Atlanta has enough patient hitters to keep that pressure on him even while the lineup is struggling to score. This price only needs to hit a little more than 41% of the time. Bradley's recent walk pattern makes the plus money worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

DRAKE BALDWINTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +122

Baldwin has been Atlanta's most dependable hitter in this series, going 4-for-9 with a home run, and he owns a .294 average and .873 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. His recent contact is especially convincing: a 93.5 mph average exit velocity, 15 hard-hit balls and an 11% whiff rate. Bradley has allowed 11 earned runs over his last 15 innings, with left-handed batters collecting six hits and two homers against him in his most recent start. Batting second gives Baldwin the plate-appearance volume I want, and the plus price is enough to back either one extra-base hit or another multi-hit afternoon.

GARY'S PICK

ALEX BREGMANH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -110

Bregman is seeing the ball exceptionally well, batting .339 with five homers and 16 RBIs over his last 15 games. He has cleared this number in 10 of those 15 and is 5-for-9 in this series, including the tying and winning hits Tuesday. Batting third gives him multiple paths to two combined hits, runs and RBIs. Newcomb is only expected to open, so Bregman should get most of his plate appearances against a heavily worked bullpen. With Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki setting the table ahead of him, I like the over at nearly even money.

GARY'S PICK

CLAY HOLMESPITCHER OUTS OVER 16.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -118

Holmes needs to record one out in the sixth, a mark he has cleared in five of his last eight starts. He looked fully stretched out Friday, needing only 80 pitches to complete 6.2 scoreless innings while allowing one hit. The White Sox carry a modest .730 OPS against right-handed pitching, and the wind coming in should help keep their power in check. Holmes' ground-ball approach also fits Chicago's excellent defense. After two straight games that required significant bullpen work, I expect the Cubs to give him every reasonable chance to work through six.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON PFAADTPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +100

Pfaadt has stayed under this number in eight straight starts, including 20.2 scoreless innings across his last three. He has completed at least six innings in four consecutive outings and owns a 1.73 road ERA. Boston has scored 20 runs in this series, but this is a different matchup. Pfaadt has limited right-handed hitters to a .212 average and .581 OPS, while the Red Sox are sitting Adley Rutschman after he went 4-for-9 with a homer in the first two games. Boston's .715 OPS against right-handed pitching is ordinary, and even money is enough for me to back Pfaadt's current form.

GARY'S PICK

GABRIEL MORENOH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +102

Moreno has cleared this number in 10 of his last 15 games, batting .365 with 13 RBI over that span. He also owns a .312 average and .973 OPS in day games and enters after driving in all four Arizona runs Tuesday. Batting third gives him several ways to cash. Ildemaro Vargas and Corbin Carroll both own averages above .325 against left-handed pitching, creating RBI opportunities, while Moreno's recent extra-base damage gives him a path to clearing the line with one swing. I want the combined production prop at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

SANDY ALCANTARAPITCHER OUTS OVER 18.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +122

Alcantara has recorded at least 19 outs in six straight starts, including outings of six and seven innings against Philadelphia. The Phillies managed only 12 hits in 53 at-bats across those meetings, while Alcantara has allowed one earned run over his last 20 innings. Miami also has every reason to let its ace work deep. The bullpen has thrown 12⅔ innings over the last three games and carries a 6.57 ERA over the last seven. Alcantara routinely works around 100 pitches, leads the majors in innings and has no workload restriction. I would expect this to be priced with juice on the over, so getting +122 is the strongest value on the board.

GARY'S PICK

SANDY ALCANTARAPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +121

I am backing Alcantara's current form to travel. He has surrendered one earned run across his last three starts and owns a 1.38 ERA in two meetings with Philadelphia this season. His 5.4% barrel rate and 35.5% hard-hit rate support the run prevention, and Philadelphia's current lineup is just 10-for-44 against him. Citizens Bank Park and the breeze toward right field create real home-run risk, but Alcantara has held left-handed hitters to a .668 OPS and can attack this seven-lefty lineup with his sinker, changeup and slider. Philadelphia is hot, yet requiring three earned runs against this version of Alcantara makes the plus-money under worth taking.

THE LONG SHOT

GRIFFIN CONINEHR OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +350

Nola's recent improvement has not eliminated his defining vulnerability. Ten of the last 12 scoring plays against him have been home runs, and left-handed hitters have produced an .859 OPS with 18 homers against him this season. His four-seamer and sinker have each allowed batting averages around .350, leaving damage available when the curveball does not finish the at-bat. Conine has hit all 14 of his home runs against right-handed pitching, with those homers coming in only 138 at-bats. He also has four over his last 15 games, three in 16 at-bats against Philadelphia this season and another strong recent contact sample featuring a 95.5 mph average exit velocity. Coming off Tuesday's homer, he gets another favorable power environment with the wind moving toward right field. At +350, the matchup supplies enough upside for me to take the swing.

GARY'S PICK

CHRIS BASSITTK'S UNDER 4.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· -107

Five strikeouts is a demanding target for Bassitt in only his second start back from a long absence. He has exceeded this line in just two of his last eight starts and owns only 40 strikeouts across 61.2 innings this season. His return against Tampa Bay produced three strikeouts over 5.1 innings, with a 5% whiff rate and no whiffs from either his sinker or cutter. The Yankees can strike out, but Bassitt may not receive enough innings to capitalize. His outs market is shaded toward fewer than 16, and seven left-handed hitters give New York a lineup built to pressure the platoon split that has given him the most trouble. I’m betting he exits before collecting a fifth strikeout.

GARY'S PICK

HELIOT RAMOSH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +105

Ramos has not cleared this number in any of his last 15 games. He is 3-for-39 with no homers or RBIs during that stretch, including 1-for-18 over the last seven. Batting cleanup creates opportunity, but it does not erase how little production he has supplied recently. Bassitt’s pronounced weakness has been against left-handed hitters. Righties have managed only a .639 OPS against him without a home run this season, making Ramos a poor match for the primary way New York can attack this matchup. A harmless single still stays under the line, and I’m getting plus money on the continuation of a prolonged quiet stretch.

GARY'S PICK

PARKER MESSICKK'S UNDER 6.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· -129

Messick has stayed below this number in seven of his last eight starts, including exactly six strikeouts in four of his last five. His run prevention does not depend on piling up punchouts; a 32.8% hard-hit rate allowed lets him turn contact into outs. San Francisco averages 7.83 strikeouts per game, and contact-oriented bats such as Jung Hoo Lee give Messick a path to another effective outing without reaching seven. At -129, I’m betting his remarkably stable recent strikeout range holds.

GARY'S PICK

JOSE RAMIREZWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +131

Ramirez has drawn a walk in nine of his last 15 games, and his .313 average with a .961 OPS against left-handed pitching gives debuting lefty Matt Wilkinson every reason to work carefully. The lineup context strengthens that angle. Jo Adell and Rhys Hoskins are out, while Nathaniel Lowe enters with a .169 OPS in a limited 29 at-bats against lefties directly behind Ramirez. Cleveland’s best hitter has less protection, and San Francisco does not need to give him a clean pitch. I’ll take plus money on one free pass.

GARY'S PICK

CHASE BURNSPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 1.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +120

I’m getting plus money on Burns allowing no more than one earned run, a result he has delivered in four of his past six starts. He owns a 1.98 ERA at Great American Ball Park and just answered his worst recent outing with seven scoreless innings against Miami. St. Louis is swinging it well, but its five left-handed starters do not create a clear weakness: Burns has held lefties to a .213 average and righties to .189, with his slider carrying a .200 xwOBA and a 52.1% whiff rate. The Cardinals’ form is the risk, but Burns’ home dominance makes +120 worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

ELLY DE LA CRUZSB OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +228

This price is big enough for me to attack the matchup despite Elly stealing only once in his past 15 games. Matthew Liberatore has allowed 20 successful steals in 25 attempts this season, and Jimmy Crooks has thrown out just one of 12 runners trying to steal. De La Cruz is also batting leadoff and owns a .333 average with a 1.059 OPS against left-handed pitching, giving him a strong chance to reach base early. Liberatore’s 6.75 first-inning ERA adds to that opportunity. One walk or single can put this bet in motion, and +228 properly pays me for the recent drought.

THE LONG SHOT

BOBBY WITT JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +425

Witt is the best hitter on this field tonight and he's seeing the ball well right now — a homer in each of his last two games, an .821 OPS and 15 bombs on the season, and he's already gone deep twice against this Oakland pitching staff in 19 at-bats this year. Springs hasn't thrown a big league pitch since a hip issue shut him down August 1, and before that he was getting hammered — a .881 OPS and 21 homers allowed to right-handed hitters in 306 at-bats this season. Now he's stepping onto a mound off a single rehab outing at Single-A, no track record of finding a rhythm quickly this year, and Witt's exit velocity and barrel data back up the eye test even through a slightly elevated chase rate. I like the hot bat against the rusty arm.

THE LONG SHOT

JAC CAGLIANONEHR OVER 0.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +440

Caglianone is about as hot as a hitter gets — five homers and a 1.192 OPS in August, a hit in every game since the calendar turned, and critically, this isn't a platoon-shielded bat. He's carrying a .762 OPS with 7 homers in 135 at-bats against lefties this season, so Springs throwing left-handed doesn't neutralize him the way it might a year ago. Springs is working back from a hip injury with a 6.17 ERA on the year and his four-seamer has been getting scorched, a .391 xwOBA allowed on the pitch he throws 44% of the time. Caglianone's chase rate is up a bit lately, but he's still squaring the ball up, 12 hard-hit balls and 2 barrels in his last 23 balls in play. I'm backing the streak.

THE LONG SHOT

JAKE BAUERSHR OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +376

Bauers has hit a home run in four of his last fifteen games and he's doing it against exactly the guy he should be doing it against — right-handed pitching. He's slashing .273 with 17 of his 22 bombs against righties this year, a homer every 16-17 at-bats, and the underlying contact has been loud: 89 mph average exit velocity with three barrels in his last 19 balls in play. Gilbert leans on his four-seamer nearly 40 percent of the time, and it's the softest pitch in his arsenal by xwOBA at .345, well behind his splitter and curveball. A locked-in right-handed bat seeing a heavy dose of the one pitch Gilbert throws that gets hit is exactly the matchup I want, and the price still pays plus money for it.

THE LONG SHOT

SHOHEI OHTANIHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +215

I don't need much of a reason to back Ohtani at Coors, but tonight I've got a stack of them. He's four homers in his last seven games and just went deep last night off Feltner to reach 30 for the year. He's already faced Freeland twice this season and taken him deep. Freeland's been sharper his last three starts, but that came against soft lineups — this same Dodgers group lit him up for four homers combined back in May and July, and now he's walking into the thin air with a 6.27 ERA behind him. Ohtani at Coors specifically has been absurd all year — hitting well over .400 with double-digit homers during his current streak at this ballpark. Short price, but this is as good a setup as this board offers.

THE LONG SHOT

TRENT GRISHAMHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +340

Grisham is the easiest form angle on this board. He's got four homers in his last seven games and six in his last thirteen, and he just went deep on Baz last night in the middle of a three-RBI game. This isn't a hot streak I'm chasing blind — he's 8-for-27 with three homers against this Orioles club already this season, and tonight he draws a pitcher who's been getting hurt specifically by left-handed hitters. Bassitt has allowed a .926 OPS and six homers to lefties this year against a .639 OPS and zero homers to righties — as clean a platoon split as you'll find on a card like this. Grisham bats leadoff, so his at-bats are locked in, and with the wind blowing out to right at Camden tonight, a lefty pulling the ball gets a little extra push. The price says roughly 23 percent; I think the real number is higher than that right now.

THE LONG SHOT

LAWRENCE BUTLERHR OVER 0.5

MLBOakland Athletics· +720

Butler has gone deep three times in his last seven games and five times in his last fifteen, running a 1.042 OPS over that stretch, and the market hasn't caught up at plus-720. He's a left-handed bat, and Lugo has actually been more hittable against lefties than righties this season — an .806 OPS and 8 homers allowed in 340 at-bats, with damage coming on his fastball and sinker when he leaves them up in the zone. Butler's batting average sits low because he chases and whiffs some, but the contact quality has been loud lately, 12 hard-hit balls and 4 barrels in his last 21 balls in play. When a guy is squaring the ball up like that, I don't need the average to catch up before I bet the power.

THE LONG SHOT

PETE ALONSOHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +320

Alonso is the best hitter on either roster over the last two weeks — .373 with a 1.109 OPS in August, two homers and eleven hits in his last seven games. He's already taken Warren deep once this season in a small sample, and Warren is walking into tonight in real trouble: a 7.71 ERA in August, three homers surrendered in his last outing alone, and his own admission afterward that he was behind in the count and paid for it. Twenty-one of Alonso's twenty-eight homers this year have come against right-handed pitching, which is exactly what he sees tonight. This is a hitter running as hot as anyone in the league against a pitcher who can't find the strike zone. The price undersells both sides of that equation.

THE LONG SHOT

ZACK GELOFHR OVER 0.5

MLBOakland Athletics· +680

Gelof has gone deep in 20% of his last fifteen games and this price isn't close to reflecting that. He's got 14 homers in just 256 at-bats this season, one about every 18 trips to the plate, and he's carrying three homers in his last fifteen games with an OPS over 1.000 in August into tonight. Lugo pitches better at Kauffman than on the road, but he's still allowed 16 homers this season and both his fastball and sinker carry an xwOBA north of .400 when he misses location. Gelof's barrel data backs the streak, three barrels in his last 19 balls in play. At plus-680 for this level of power and form, I'll take it.

THE LONG SHOT

BRYCE ELDRIDGEHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +575

Eldridge is squaring the ball up better than anyone in this lineup right now. Four barrels in his last nineteen balls in play, two homers and a .992 mark over his last seven games, and he already left the yard against Cleveland pitching last night. That's not a hot streak built on bloopers — that's a guy currently locked in on his timing, and barrel rate is the number I trust before it shows up in the box score. Messick keeps the league in check on hard contact overall, but dig into his own platoon split and left-handed hitters have actually posted a better OPS against him than righties have this year, even though the raw homer total leans the other way. I want the hottest bat on the board getting a fair platoon look, and at this price I'm taking it.

THE LONG SHOT

DOMINIC CANZONEHR OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· +530

Nobody on this slate has a better home run rate than Canzone — 19 homers in 335 at-bats, one every 17-18 swings, and that number actually improves to one every 18 at-bats against right-handed pitching specifically. He's a left-handed bat walking into a real platoon edge tonight: May has allowed six homers to lefties in 267 at-bats against just three to righties in 187, and the two pitches he throws most to lefty bats, the cutter and sinker, are also his most hittable by xwOBA. Canzone's been red-hot at the plate this week, nine hits in his last 25 at-bats, and the exit-velocity readings underneath it, 89 mph average with ten hard-hit balls in his last 21 balls in play, say the bat speed backing it up is real.

THE LONG SHOT

ABIMELEC ORTIZHR OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +500

Abimelec Ortiz has been the one hitter doing real damage in a lineup that's lost four straight — three home runs and a 1.000 OPS over his last seven games, four homers in his last fifteen. Every one of those has come against a right-hander, which is exactly what's on the mound tonight. Kumar Rocker has allowed six home runs across his last five starts and is carrying an ERA over 8.00 in August. It isn't bad luck — left-handed hitters are batting .291 with a homer every 24 at-bats against him this season, and outside his slider, everything he throws (sinker, cutter, four-seamer) is getting hit hard by the underlying contact numbers. Ortiz is a lefty bat squaring the ball up well right now, with three barrels among his last fifteen balls in play, running into a pitcher who can't get hitters like him out with anything but one pitch. Plus-500 undersells how live this matchup is.

THE LONG SHOT

KYLE SCHWARBERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +215

Schwarber's carrying the best raw power rate on this board — a homer every twelve at-bats or so on the year, and under twelve specifically against right-handers. He's got two home runs in his last week and he's leading off tonight, so he's ticketed for four or five trips to the plate. Alcantara's four-seamer and cutter get hammered all season long, .393 and .352 expected wOBA, and between them that's close to a third of what he throws. The wind's blowing out to right field tonight at a park that already plays small, and right is exactly where Schwarber does his damage from the left side. Plus money for this kind of power is a number worth taking.

THE LONG SHOT

ALEC BURLESONHR OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +390

Burleson is the best price on this board. He's a left-handed bat against a right-hander who's actually a lot more hittable against lefties than a 2.47 ERA suggests — Chase Burns has given up 11 home runs to left-handed hitters in 296 at-bats this season and only 2 in 180 at-bats to righties. Burleson is exactly the pull-power lefty built to sit on that split. He's also doing it right now: 10 hits in his last 28 at-bats with 2 homers and 11 RBI, an OPS over 1.100 in that stretch, and he's hitting .329 with an .990 OPS against right-handed pitching on the year. He's already 16-for-45 against this Reds staff in this series. Almost 4-to-1 undersells how live he is tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

RYAN VILADEHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +750

Vilade doesn't have the track record yet, but the rate is real: 11 homers in fewer than 200 at-bats. He's been the hottest bat in this lineup over the last week — two homers and a .545 average in his last seven games — and he's turned into a personal Blue Jays killer, hitting .455 with two homers in his limited looks against this Toronto team this season. The underlying contact backs it up too: exit velocities pushing toward 100 miles an hour and multiple barrels in his recent balls in play. Scherzer's fastball and slider are both getting squared up by anyone who takes a healthy cut, and Vilade's squaring up everything right now. The price only looks generous because he isn't an everyday name yet — the form says otherwise.

THE LONG SHOT

JACKSON CHOURIOHR OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +423

Chourio's swinging it as well as anyone in this lineup right now — four homers and eight RBI over his last fifteen games, with his OPS climbing to .907 in August after a quiet July. His power plays fine against right-handers too, 12 of his 17 homers this season have come against them, one every 23 at-bats. He'll chase a bit against a pitcher who can spin it, and Gilbert's slider and splitter both miss bats at a high clip, but Chourio's shown he doesn't need a perfect pitch right now to do damage — he's turned on mistakes all month. Betting the hot hand here against a Gilbert fastball that's been his most hittable pitch by a wide margin.

THE LONG SHOT

JOSH LOWEHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +550

Lowe's got the bat working right now — a homer last night off Javier, two more in his last fifteen games, and he's squaring balls up, with a barrel and seven hard-hit balls in his last thirteen tracked at-bats. That kind of form matters more than usual tonight, because Houston is throwing Ethan Pecko for his major league debut. A 4.94 ERA arm at Triple-A who got scratched from his last minor league turn before this call-up isn't walking into Daikin Park with much margin, and that short porch in left plays into the hands of anyone seeing the ball well. I want the hitter with momentum against the pitcher nobody in this lineup has ever seen.

THE LONG SHOT

EUGENIO SUAREZHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +367

Suarez has 18 homers and he's heating back up — 4 home runs and an .939 OPS over his last 15 games after a cold June and July. He draws Matthew Liberatore tonight, whose fastball, sinker and changeup are all getting hit for an expected wOBA north of .340, with the sinker batting .404 against on the year. Suarez has actually hit for more thump against lefties than his overall average shows, 4 homers in 72 at-bats against left-handed pitching, and he's got a small ballpark to work with. A hitter trending up against a pitcher who can't keep the ball off barrels right now — that's the matchup I want.

THE LONG SHOT

JUNIOR CAMINEROHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +300

Caminero is a 35-homer bat in the middle of the best lineup in the league, and tonight he draws a pitcher who's been leaking hard contact all year. Scherzer leans on his four-seamer and slider for two-thirds of his pitches, and both are getting hit hard — the slider in particular has been a batting-practice pitch for anyone who sees it. Caminero's already 14-for-44 against Toronto this season and has hit 28 of his 35 bombs against right-handed pitching alone, exactly what he's staring at tonight. He hasn't gone deep in his last week and August has been quieter than his summer peak, but that's noise for a hitter with this kind of raw power, not signal. The dome takes a little off fly balls, but this isn't a hitter who needs to golf one — he does damage in the gaps and over the wall in the same swing.

THE LONG SHOT

RANDY AROZARENAHR OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· +564

Arozarena is the best hitter on this roster and the results back it up lately — a homer in four of his last fifteen games, tops on either roster tonight, and 17 homers on the year at a rate of one every 26 at-bats. May doesn't show much of a platoon hole against right-handers specifically, so I'm not leaning on a matchup crack here, I'm leaning on the player. This is a hitter Seattle has made clear they intend to keep through free agency because he's been the one consistent bat in a lineup that's otherwise scuffled all August, and in a park that plays a little small, I like a proven power bat at plus money over a pitcher making just his third home start for this club.

THE LONG SHOT

KAZUMA OKAMOTOHR OVER 0.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· +525

Okamoto just set the Blue Jays' rookie home run record and leads the team with 25 bombs, and he's one of the few hitters in this lineup who's already proven he can do damage against Rasmussen specifically — 2-for-8 with a homer in his looks against him this year, against a pitcher who's otherwise held right-handed hitters to a .163 average all season. That's a real signal buried in a small sample. His average had cooled over the two weeks before last night, when he already came through with a homer in the series opener — a sign the pop never actually left. Tropicana Field plays a little big, but Okamoto's a pull-power bat who doesn't need to catch all of one to clear a fence.

THE LONG SHOT

COLTON COWSERHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +575

Cowser's swinging a hot bat — two homers in his last seven games, an .870 OPS in August after a quiet July. He's a left-handed hitter facing Warren, who has allowed eleven of his eighteen homers this season to lefties, and the wind blowing out to right tonight at Camden gives a pull-side lefty a small added push. This is a lower-confidence swing than my other plays tonight — Cowser strikes out enough that any given night can end in three punchouts instead of a barrel — but the recent power surge combined with the platoon matchup makes the long price worth taking a shot on.

THE LONG SHOT

COREY SEAGERHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +413

Corey Seager is doing exactly what he does when he's seeing the ball well — seven hits in his last sixteen at-bats, a homer in that stretch, and an OPS over 1.200 across the last week. He's already 2-for-4 against this Nationals club this season, in the one meeting they've played. Cade Cavalli has been terrific overall and is riding one of the best quality-start streaks in the league, but his homer log tells a different story — seven of his last ten runs allowed have left the yard, and left-handed hitters have gotten to him for ten home runs this season against a far lower total from right-handed bats. His four-seamer and sinker, the two pitches he leans on most, are both getting squared up more than you'd expect from a 3.36 ERA arm — the curveball and sweeper are what make him an ace, but the fastballs are hittable. Seager's barreling the ball as well as anyone in that lineup right now, and he's walking into the part of Cavalli's game that's actually beatable.

THE LONG SHOT

MIKE TROUTHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +400

Trout's been on base and squaring the ball up all week, eight hits in his last seven games, and the power is still there with two homers in his last fifteen. Tonight he gets a look at a pitcher making his major league debut, and Houston has had to run out seventeen different starters this season to get here, which tells you plenty about how thin that rotation has been. An unproven arm with a shaky Triple-A season, in a park that doesn't do pitchers many favors, is the kind of night the best hitter in the lineup turns into a souvenir.

THE LONG SHOT

ANDY PAGESHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +360

Pages is a right-handed bat getting a steady diet of good swings against lefties, and Freeland is exactly that. He's hitting near .300 with an .867 OPS over his last two weeks, and he's already turned around a homer against Freeland in their head-to-head look this season. His chase and whiff numbers are excellent right now, which tells me he's not just running hot, he's controlling the strike zone well enough for it to hold up. He's also raked against Colorado pitching all year. Add in the thin Coors air and this is a clean matchup for a hitter already trending the right way.

THE LONG SHOT

BRYCE HARPERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +340

Harper's op against right-handed pitching this season is close to a homer every thirteen at-bats, and he's got real history against Alcantara specifically — three times on base in five trips including a walk. He's been scorching for average in August, over .300 with a 1.046 OPS, and the underlying power has been there too, twenty-one homers against righties this year. He hasn't gone deep in the last week so I'm not pretending the timing is perfect, but with the venue favoring pull-side lefty power tonight and the season-long rate this strong, plus-340 is a fair price to back him.

THE LONG SHOT

ANGEL MARTINEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +750

Cleveland trots out a lineup full of thump tonight against a pitcher making his major league debut, and Martinez is the switch-hitter I want in on. Twelve homers on the year, and he's been the best version of himself this month at .326 with an .862 mark in August. He's not just a righty masher who happens to be facing a lefty — he's got three homers in just over a hundred at-bats against left-handed pitching this season, a real track record, not a platoon guess. Wilkinson brings a good makeup story, but he was sitting under 90 on the radar gun in Triple-A this year with an ERA over five. This is exactly the kind of spot where a lineup that just put eight runs on this pitching staff the night before keeps that line moving, and Martinez has the swing to be part of it.

THE LONG SHOT

DANE MYERSHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +480

Myers is running hot — two homers in his last seven games, one of them a game-tying shot off a reliever trying to finish a three-inning save Monday. He's also had this Cardinals staff's number all year: .346 with 2 homers in 26 at-bats against St. Louis this season, and he's gone 2-for-3 with a homer off Liberatore specifically in their one prior meeting. His season power total is modest, but a locked-in hitter against a division rival he already torches, facing a lefty who's leaking hard contact all night in a small park, is the kind of spot where the number on the board runs ahead of the real risk.

THE LONG SHOT

BRETT SULLIVANHR OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +650

Sullivan has caught every game since Goodman went down and he's rewarding the extra reps — three homers and a 1.000-plus OPS over his last couple weeks, right through a scorching August. He's a lefty bat who does his damage against right-handed pitching, which is exactly what Sasaki brings, and Sasaki's fastball has been hittable all season even with the strikeouts piling up elsewhere in his arsenal. Sullivan's already got a homer against this Dodgers pitching staff in limited looks this year. At this price, with him locked into an everyday role and running this hot, I don't need much to hit to make it worth the swing.

THE LONG SHOT

LIAM HICKSHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +750

This one's about the pitcher as much as the hitter. Scherzer has been a nightmare for left-handed batters all season — a .930 OPS and seven homers allowed in barely a hundred at-bats, roughly one every fourteen trips. Hicks is a lefty who's swinging a hot bat since arriving in the deadline trade from Miami — a homer and a 1.013 OPS in his last seven games, two homers total over his last two weeks, average up to .313 over that stretch. Fifteen of his sixteen homers this season have come against right-handed pitching, exactly what he's facing tonight, against a righty who can't get lefties out right now. The price reflects a part-time catcher's overall season line, not tonight's specific matchup.

THE LONG SHOT

SAL STEWARTHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +340

Stewart leads this Reds roster with 26 homers and he's coming off a strong week at the plate — 10 hits, a homer, four RBI over his last seven games. His numbers against lefties are actually a tick better than his overall line, .278 with an .872 OPS and 6 homers in 108 at-bats. Liberatore is out there with a 5.07 ERA and the underlying contact numbers to match it — over 41 percent hard-hit allowed. Stewart's the safest power bet on the Reds' side to take advantage of a bad matchup for the pitcher.

GARY'S PICK

JONATHAN ARANDASINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +101

Aranda has produced a single in 13 of his last 15 games, and this matchup keeps that path open. He owns a .301 average and .860 OPS against right-handed pitching, while left-handed hitters have batted .297 with a .930 OPS against Scherzer. Aranda is also making authoritative contact, with 12 hard-hit balls over his recent sample. Batting third should give him four opportunities, and plus money is enough for me to back his most frequent form of production.

GARY'S PICK

MAX SCHERZERK'S OVER 3.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· +100

Scherzer has recorded at least four strikeouts in five consecutive starts, including 13 over his last 16⅓ innings. His workload has also stabilized at 84 or more pitches in each of his last three outings. Tampa Bay does not strike out excessively, but four is still a modest requirement for a pitcher who can attack this left-handed-heavy lineup with his changeup and curveball. I like getting even money on Scherzer to reach a number he has consistently cleared since returning to the rotation.

GARY'S PICK

JEFFREY SPRINGSPITCHER OUTS UNDER 13.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -105

Springs must record at least 14 outs to beat this ticket, and that is an ambitious workload in his first major-league start after 18 days away. His lone rehab appearance lasted three innings, while he has completed five innings only twice across his last six starts and has stayed under this number in five of his last eight. The matchup can shorten the outing even without a firm restriction. Springs has walked seven while striking out only four over his last three starts, and Kansas City now has Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino back around a scorching Bobby Witt Jr. and Jac Caglianone. That lineup can create long innings against a pitcher carrying a 6.17 ERA. At nearly even money, I’m betting Springs is finished before securing his 14th out.

GARY'S PICK

JAC CAGLIANONETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +104

Caglianone is seeing the ball too well for me to pass on two total bases at plus money. He is 25-for-54 with four home runs over his last 15 games, has cleared this line nine times during that stretch and is 5-for-9 through the first two games of this series. His recent contact has also been authoritative, with a 94.7 mph average exit velocity and 12 hard-hit balls among 23 balls in play. The left-on-left matchup does not scare me here. Springs has allowed left-handed hitters an .842 OPS, and his four-seam fastball—the pitch he uses most—has produced a .391 expected wOBA with only a 15.2% whiff rate. Kauffman can suppress home runs, but its spacious gaps leave Caglianone multiple paths to cash this with a double or two hits.

GARY'S PICK

BRENDAN DONOVANSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -105

I want Donovan’s contact profile rather than paying -220 for a generic hit. He has recorded a single in eight of his last 15 games, owns a .301 average and .904 OPS against right-handed pitching, and leads off tonight, giving him the best path to four or five plate appearances. Dustin May has allowed left-handed hitters a .266 average and .732 OPS. Donovan’s recent 13% whiff rate is particularly useful against May’s mix of velocity and movement because he consistently puts the ball in play. At nearly even money, one single is a fair way to attack this matchup.

GARY'S PICK

LOGAN GILBERTPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -134

I’m backing Gilbert to complete six innings. He has cleared 17.5 outs in seven of his last eight starts and has worked at least six innings in five of his last six. He also enters on five days’ rest with a 2.25 road ERA and has allowed only five earned runs across his last 19.2 innings. Milwaukee’s 22-run explosion should not obscure that the Brewers had averaged 3.4 runs over their previous nine games. They are also sitting Garrett Mitchell and David Hamilton after both produced multiple hits last night. Gilbert’s splitter and breaking pitches give him several ways to miss bats, and his consistent workload makes six completed innings worth laying this price.

GARY'S PICK

CADE CAVALLIPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -130

Cavalli has completed at least six innings in six consecutive starts and cleared this line in seven of his last eight. He enters with a 2.25 ERA across his last three outings, five days of rest and no fixed workload restriction. Texas has averaged only 3.3 runs over its last 10 games. The Rangers can stack left-handed hitters, but Cavalli’s curveball and sweeper give him two legitimate weapons against that alignment. I’m backing his consistency and taking him to record at least 18 outs.

GARY'S PICK

KUMAR ROCKERPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +125

Rocker has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last eight starts, including 12 earned over only 13.1 innings in his last three. His first-inning ERA is 9.00, and his fastballs and cutter have been far less reliable than his slider. Washington starts five left-handed hitters and two switch hitters against a pitcher who has allowed lefties a .291 average and .858 OPS. The Nationals average 5.3 runs per game for the season, and plus money is generous for them to put three earned runs on Rocker before Texas turns to its bullpen.

GARY'S PICK

WALBERT URENAPITCHER HITS ALLOWED UNDER 4.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -107

Ureña has stayed under this number in six of his last eight starts, and Houston has managed only five hits in 38 at-bats against him across two meetings this season. He held the Astros to three combined hits and one earned run over 11 innings in those starts. The underlying pitch quality supports the results. His changeup and sweeper both carry whiff rates above 36%, while opponents are batting .152 and .149 against those offerings. Houston has lost three straight and produced only one run Tuesday. With Ureña also allowing a low 4.8% barrel rate, I make under 4.5 hits a clear play at nearly even money.

GARY'S PICK

NOLAN SCHANUELH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -105

Schanuel has cleared this line in 10 of his last 15 games, batting .349 with 11 RBI during that span. He is especially well positioned hitting third behind Wade Meckler and Mike Trout, because one productive plate appearance can generate two qualifying events through a hit and either a run or an RBI. The matchup adds to the appeal. Ethan Pecko is making his major-league debut after recording a 4.94 ERA in Triple-A, while Schanuel owns a .299 average and .793 OPS against right-handed pitching. He is also 11-for-32 with two homers against Houston this season. At -105, I’m backing his current form and premium lineup position.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE FREELANDPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 6.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -125

Freeland has allowed only three earned runs across his last three starts, but this is a much tougher assignment than Kansas City, St. Louis or San Francisco. The Dodgers collected 18 hits in nine innings against him over two earlier meetings, scoring 14 earned runs. The pitch-level matchup still points toward contact. Freeland has allowed at least a .300 average on his four-seamer, cutter, changeup and sinker, pitches that account for more than two-thirds of his usage. Los Angeles also starts five right-handed hitters against a pitcher allowing righties a .302 average and .909 OPS. At Coors, I expect the Dodgers to reach seven hits before Freeland's night is over.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE MCCARTHYSB OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +370

This price is worth attacking because every part of the matchup encourages Colorado to run. McCarthy has stolen a base in four of his last 15 games, including Tuesday night, while Sasaki has allowed runners to go 8-for-9 against him this season. Ben Rortvedt replaces the ill Hunter Feduccia behind the plate and has thrown out only one of six attempted base stealers. McCarthy still has to reach, but the leadoff hitter owns a .295 season average and a .802 OPS against right-handed pitching. At +370, one opportunity may be enough.

THE LONG SHOT

TEOSCAR HERNANDEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +363

Hernandez has not homered during his last 15 games, but the contact underneath that drought is much better than the results. He has averaged 96.4 mph on recent balls in play with 11 hard-hit balls and two barrels, and he is 2-for-2 with a home run against Freeland this season. Freeland has surrendered a .909 OPS and 19 home runs in 364 at-bats to right-handed hitters. Hernandez gets the platoon advantage in the heart of the order at Coors Field, and +363 is enough compensation for the volatility of a home-run ticket.

Research

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CUT LISTDET tonight
Jackson Jobe
Jobe's sitting on a 6.23 ERA, which is already scraping the bottom of a mixed-league staff, but his xERA is 7.66 — a run and a half uglier. That gap says the ERA is the one lying to you; the process underneath is worse than what's shown up so far, so regression runs the wrong way from here. He's on the mound again tonight, and I see no reason to let him cost you one more start before you make the move. Cut. The process number is uglier than the results number, and the results are already bad.
PLATOON EDGESEA @ MIL
Brendan Donovan (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Leadoff against a righty is the cleanest setup on the slate for Donovan — he gets more looks at Milwaukee's starter than anyone in the order, and every one comes in his good hand. That edge just compounds as the lineup turns over.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB
TEAM RECORDARI @ BOS
Red Sox 7-1 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts
Boston's 7-1 when Tolle starts isn't one big win skewing the number — it's the whole operation clicking, start after start. Pfaadt's got Arizona just as hot right now, so tonight's less a streak to buy and more two hot clubs colliding.
HEAD-TO-HEADLAD @ COL
Dodgers are 10-4 vs Rockies this season
10-4 across fourteen meetings is too big a sample to wave off, and last time out Colorado made it a fight and still lost 7-6. LA keeps finding the last punch in this series — no reason a road date in Colorado changes that tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADTOR @ TB
Rays are 9-4 vs Blue Jays this season
Tampa's 9-4 on the year, but Toronto just blew one open 10-5 last time out — that's real firepower, not a bloop win. The question tonight is whether that travels on the road in Tampa, and a 9-4 mark doesn't erase off one big night.
HEAD-TO-HEADNYY @ BAL
Yankees are 8-3 vs Orioles this season
8-3 over eleven meetings, capped by a tight 3-1 win last time out — that's New York making the last play even when Baltimore competes. Doesn't matter that it's Baltimore's building tonight; that edge has already traveled plenty this year.
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ PHI
Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 4th against Aaron Nola (RHP)
Cleanup against a righty is exactly where you want Conine right now — this platoon gap isn't marginal, it's close to the difference between an out and extra bases. He's the bat that turns a leadoff single into an actual run tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGESTL @ CIN
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Chase Burns (RHP)
Burleson hitting third against a righty means Burns has to get through the first real power threat in the order with the matchup already tilted against him. If the top two do anything at all, he's the one who turns it into a crooked number.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
BULLPENCHW @ CHC
Chicago White Sox pen: 16.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Fedde throwing 78 pitches out of relief eats into length, and Richards and Smith are both working their second look in three days. If the White Sox starter can't get through five tonight, this pen is patching it together with tired arms.
COOLING OFFLAA @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: .398 OPS in Last 15 Days
A drop this steep over this many trips to the plate reads like pitchers found something, not bad luck — that's a timing issue he hasn't fixed yet. Under on his props until the box score says otherwise.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKARI @ BOS
Wilyer Abreu: 1.292 OPS in Last 15 Days
Forty-four plate appearances of a five-hundred-point jump isn't two loud games — that's a real hitter finding another gear on top of 22 homers already banked. That 1.5 total bases number is soft for how he's squaring the ball up right now.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKOAK @ KC
Jac Caglianone: 1.241 OPS in Last 15 Days
Fifty plate appearances over four hundred points above an already-solid season line, backed by 22 homers on the year — this isn't empty contact, the ball's actually leaving the yard. Trust it again tonight.
P 1-for-1, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ TB
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Drew Rasmussen (RHP)
Not a game-breaking bat, but Lukes against a righty at the top of the order is enough to keep the line moving instead of handing back a free out. Strip the platoon edge away and he's a shaky at-bat — tonight he isn't.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDSTL @ CIN
Reds 6-2 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts
Cincinnati's turned Burns's starts into their best nights of the week — bats showing up, pen closing it out, over and over. Good pattern to lean on walking into a division set with St. Louis.
TEAM RECORDMIA @ PHI
Phillies 2-6 in Aaron Nola's last 8 starts
Philly keeps going quiet behind Nola's turns through the rotation, and that's the lineup or the pen letting him down, not him. Miami looks like exactly the kind of opponent that keeps a rut like this alive.
TEAM RECORDTOR @ TB
Blue Jays 2-6 in Max Scherzer's last 8 starts
Toronto's rough number on Scherzer's starts is a team-wide issue, not on him — the offense or the pen letting him down again and again. Nothing here says that flips against Tampa Bay tonight.
PLATOON EDGESEA @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Turang leading off against Gilbert puts him in his good split right at the top of the order, and that at-bat recurs multiple times before the night's over. Against lefties he's shakier — tonight he doesn't have to be.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ PHI
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Hitting third means Harper sees Alcantara early, before any bullpen escape hatch is even an option, and it's the version of him — against a righty — that pitching staffs fear most. No working around this one tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMLAD @ COL
Kyle Freeland: 1.27 ERA over his last 3 starts
Thirteen strikeouts and next to no runs across three full turns is a real shift, not weak contact finding gloves — a five-run gap off his 6.27 season number is about as wide as it gets. The price hasn't caught up; I'm buying in against the Dodgers tonight.
P 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
HEAT CHECKNYY @ BAL
Pete Alonso: 1.246 OPS in Last 15 Days
An already-great .857 season line and he's running nearly four hundred points above it over forty-nine plate appearances — a great hitter locking in further, backed by 28 homers on the year. 1.5 total bases is an easy clear for this version of him.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGELAA @ HOU
Wade Meckler (bats L) hits 1st against Ethan Pecko (RHP)
The book on Meckler against lefties is still thin, but this leadoff look against a righty is the read that's actually built on real at-bats. Right matchup, right lineup spot tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSDET @ PIT
Oneil Cruz
Cruz brings the best OPS of this hitting group at .832, and he lands a Jackson Jobe start that's cratering in real time — a 7.66 xERA is as inviting as matchups get. Hitting 5th puts him in a run-producing slot to cash it. Must-add everywhere — mixed, deep, doesn't matter. This is the headline play of the slate.
HEAT CHECKSTL @ CIN
Alec Burleson: 1.198 OPS in Last 15 Days
That kind of jump over fifty-one plate appearances on top of an already strong .847 season line, with 21 homers backing the pop, is built on real at-bats. Attack that 1.5 total bases number again tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
STREAKMIA @ PHI
PHI have won 5 straight
Five straight and outscoring people by 19 runs — that's real separation, not close games breaking their way. Zoom out to 7-3 over ten and the form has genuinely turned. I like Philly to keep rolling at home.
P team won 1-4
CUT LISTATL tonight
AJ Smith-Shawver
A 4.15 ERA looks like a guy you can stream with confidence, but his 6.67 xERA is the widest gap on this list — two and a half runs of daylight between what happened and what should have happened. That's not variance, that's a pitcher getting away with something, and getting away with it has an expiration date. He's back on the mound tonight, which means the market still trusts the shiny number. I don't. Cut — sell the ERA before tonight lets the process catch up to it.
PLATOON EDGETOR @ TB
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 6th against Drew Rasmussen (RHP)
Sixth against a righty is built for Sanchez to do damage after the top of the order's already had its crack at Rasmussen. If he's worked through traffic once already tonight, this is the matchup that turns it into a bigger inning.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKSD @ NYM
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1.112 OPS in Last 15 Days
Tatis was already hitting well before this stretch, so this is just a good player getting a little hotter, the more believable kind of heater. I like him for total bases tonight against the Mets.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEDET @ PIT
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Jackson Jobe (RHP), batting 2nd
Lowe's a lefty who actually does more damage against right-handers than his own side, and batting second tonight locks him into extra looks at Jobe. That's a matchup working for him, not against him.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
BATTER VS ARMLAD @ COL
Shohei Ohtani vs Kyle Freeland: .636
Freeland lives on weak contact and Ohtani's never played along — he squares up the sinker and changeup instead of rolling over on them. He's swinging it as well as anyone right now, and Coors turns any mistake into extra bases. Freeland has to be about perfect here.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATAthletics @ Royals
Bobby Witt Jr.
Gary's Take Witt is the best hitter on this field tonight and he's seeing the ball well right now — a homer in each of his last two games, an .821 OPS and 15 bombs on the season, and he's already gone deep twice against this Oakland pitching staff in 19 at-bats this year. Springs hasn't thrown a big league pitch since a hip issue shut him down August 1, and before that he was getting hammered — a .881 OPS and 21 homers allowed to right-handed hitters in 306 at-bats this season.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMTOR @ TB
Max Scherzer: 2.20 ERA over his last 3 starts
A WHIP well under his season mark while he's still missing bats says the stuff never left, the results just lagged. That 6.59 season ERA is a handful of disaster innings talking, not the pitcher who's actually shown up his last three times out.
P 4 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
HEAT CHECKSD @ NYM
Bo Bichette: 1.046 OPS in Last 15 Days
This is stacked on a .699 season line, so five months of below-average hitting just turned a corner over fifty plate appearances. Only 12 homers says it's better swing decisions, not new pop — and the market's still pricing 1.5 total bases like the old version of him.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKCHW @ CHC
Alex Bregman: 1.040 OPS in Last 15 Days
Fifty-six plate appearances is a real month, not a hot ten games, stacked on an already-solid .754 season line and 16 homers. 1.5 total bases is well within reach right now.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSDET @ PIT
Bryan Reynolds
Reynolds hits 3rd, prime real estate against a pitcher sporting a 7.66 xERA, and his .799 OPS says he's fully capable of cashing that opportunity. Must-add across formats — worth rostering for tonight and holding beyond it.
FANTASY PICKUPSDET @ PIT
Brandon Lowe
Lowe's .79 OPS is the softest bat of the four, but the 2-hole against a Jobe start carrying a 7.66 xERA means extra at-bats at the top of a lineup teeing off on a struggling arm. Add him for the matchup and the lineup spot in all mixed leagues tonight — the last of the four names to roster, but still a clear add.
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/17
Blake Snell
Monday's trip to Colorado is already in the books by the time this posts, so it's really a one-start week left that matters: Saturday at home against the Pirates. A 2.17 xERA is the best number on this whole sheet, and that's before you even credit the home start. Top arm on the board — start him Saturday and don't think twice.
HEAD-TO-HEADDET @ PIT
Pirates are 4-1 vs Tigers this season
Small sample, but the most recent meeting matched the record exactly, 4-1 — that's a pattern repeating, not one early blowout propping up the number. Clean read at home tonight.
COOLING OFFSTL @ CIN
Elly De La Cruz: .523 OPS in Last 15 Days
De La Cruz has had every chance to snap out of this over the last two weeks and hasn't yet. I'm staying away tonight against St. Louis until the results actually turn.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADSTL @ CIN
Cardinals are 7-4 vs Reds this season
A 3-0 finish last time out was St. Louis controlling it from the mound, not slugging its way past Cincinnati — and 7-4 over eleven games backs that up as a real, pitching-driven edge. That's the kind of thing that travels on the road tonight.
COOLING OFFMIA @ PHI
Otto Lopez: .495 OPS in Last 15 Days
A drop this size over this many at-bats reads like real swing trouble for a hitter without much margin to begin with, not bad luck. He'll still get his usual look tonight — fading the props until the numbers move back.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECHW @ CHC
Munetaka Murakami (bats L) hits 2nd against Clay Holmes (RHP)
Murakami's a different hitter against right-handers, and batting second puts him on Holmes early tonight before anything can be adjusted. With Antonacci doing the same thing right in front of him, Holmes starts the night against back-to-back good matchups.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
HR THREATMariners @ Brewers
Jake Bauers
Gary's Take Bauers has hit a home run in four of his last fifteen games and he's doing it against exactly the guy he should be doing it against — right-handed pitching. He's slashing .273 with 17 of his 22 bombs against righties this year, a homer every 16-17 at-bats, and the underlying contact has been loud: 89 mph average exit velocity with three barrels in his last 19 balls in play.
P 0 HR — 0-for-5, 0 TB
HR THREATAthletics @ Royals
Jac Caglianone
Gary's Take Caglianone is about as hot as a hitter gets — five homers and a 1.192 OPS in August, a hit in every game since the calendar turned, and critically, this isn't a platoon-shielded bat. He's carrying a .762 OPS with 7 homers in 135 at-bats against lefties this season, so Springs throwing left-handed doesn't neutralize him the way it might a year ago.
P 0 HR — 1-for-1, 1 TB
COOLING OFFLAA @ HOU
Yordan Alvarez: .696 OPS in Last 15 Days
Even in a rough stretch he's producing at a level most everyday hitters would call a career year, which tells you more about how high his bar is than anything broken. Buying his props against the Angels, not betting against him.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFSF @ CLE
Jung Hoo Lee: .469 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Parker Messick
Cold stretch running into a lefty, which is already the tougher half of his own split — Messick isn't doing him any favors. Cautious spot, not a bounce-back target tonight.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
COOLING OFFSF @ CLE
Travis Bazzana: .346 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Matt Wilkinson
A .696 season OPS is already modest, and a .523 mark against lefties over 109 at-bats shows exactly where it comes from. Wilkinson lines him up for that same tough look — I expect the struggle to continue tonight.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFDET @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .610 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jackson Jobe
Valdez running cold looks more like a good hitter in a rut than anything broken, but I'm weighing the platoon matchup against Jobe tonight heavier than the recent form. Still not writing him off given how he's hit all year.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFNYY @ BAL
Ben Rice: .523 OPS in Last 15 Days
A season line that strong doesn't just disappear — this looks like squared-up balls running into a string of outs, on a sample thin enough that a few results flipping closes most of the gap. In on his props before the market catches up.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
PLATOON EDGECHW @ CHC
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Clay Holmes (RHP)
Antonacci leads off and gets his best matchup right away against Holmes tonight. Him and Murakami back-to-back both in their good split is a tough way for any pitcher to open a game.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
FANTASY PICKUPSDET @ PIT
Nick Gonzales
Gonzales leads this group in average at .308 even though his .767 OPS is the lowest of the four, and a Jobe matchup at 7.66 xERA is a soft landing that plays right to a contact-first bat. Must-add, especially for average-needy rosters; power-first teams can rank him behind Cruz and Reynolds but should still be rostering him tonight.
HEAT CHECKATL @ MIN
Josh Bell: 1.037 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bell's hot stretch is the tamest one here, which oddly makes it the one I trust most — a good hitter playing a little better, not a fluke. I like him for total bases tonight against Minnesota.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSBoston Red Sox — week of 8/17
Alec Gamboa
The Monday date with Arizona at home is done and gone. What's left is Saturday, still at home, against the Giants — and a 2.42 xERA means I'm treating that second start exactly like I treated the first. Right there with Snell — start him Saturday with full confidence.
CLOSER WATCHOAK @ KC
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Erceg's the guy right now — 12 saves and 4 holds, fully rested after sitting the last three games, and KC's favored at home over Oakland tonight so lead chances are there. But this is flagged as a real committee, only two saves separating him from Lange, so it's not a bulletproof lock. Priority saves add if he's on your wire — fresh arm, favorable odds. Lange (10 saves, 2 holds) is a speculative handcuff at best, not someone to bank on unless the role cracks further toward him.
HEAT CHECKMIA @ PHI
Alec Bohm: .978 OPS in Last 15 Days
A .683 season line means this is a real jump over forty-eight plate appearances, and only 14 homers says it's better contact and coverage, not a sudden power spike. 1.5 total bases is very reachable right now regardless of what the season number says.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFNYY @ BAL
Luis Garcia Jr.: .501 OPS in Last 15 Days
Garcia's dip is real but not the worst one out there, and it reads more like timing than anything mechanical. I'd expect him to start finding barrels again soon, maybe as soon as tonight against the Yankees.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
COOLING OFFTOR @ TB
Junior Caminero: .665 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Max Scherzer
The slump looks scary until you see his career number against righties sits at .896 — basically his normal self. This is a buy-low that doesn't need the matchup to bail him out, because the matchup was never really the issue.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFWSH @ TEX
CJ Abrams: .628 OPS in Last 15 Days
This is a mild dip over healthy playing time — more batted-ball luck than pitchers actually solving him, and his season-long numbers back that up. Buy-low spot on his props tonight against Texas.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
TOMORROWOAK @ KC
Randy Dobnak: 1.73 ERA vs 4.57 xERA
Widest gap on the board — 40.7% hard-hit against him, but almost none of it's turned into barrels yet. That 48-point gap between what hitters are hitting and what they should be says the number's more fragile than the ERA lets on against Oakland.
STARTER FORMWSH @ TEX
Kumar Rocker: 8.10 ERA over his last 3 starts
A WHIP over 2.00 says walks and hits are piling up together, and that's a real break from his 4.50 season mark, not noise. Fade him off the recent trend tonight.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
STREAKMIA @ PHI
PHI games have gone OVER 4 straight
Averaging 10.8 a night against a line that had been sitting at 8.4 — these games weren't sneaking over, they were clearing it by two-plus runs. Tonight's number drops all the way to 6.5. That's a wide lane for the over.
P final total 5 vs 6.5
COOLING OFFLAD @ COL
Freddie Freeman: .559 OPS in Last 15 Days
A hitter with his track record doesn't lose the stroke in two weeks — this reads like fine contact and bad results on a moderate sample. Buy-low on his props against Colorado, not a fade.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGEDET @ PIT
Dillon Dingler (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Dingler's one of the rare right-handed bats who actually prefers right-handed pitching, so the usual platoon logic flips on him tonight against Skenes. Hitting cleanup, that's exactly the spot to cash in on it.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFATL @ MIN
Trevor Larnach: .385 OPS in Last 15 Days
Thirty-some plate appearances is too small a window to hang a drop this steep on the swing — that's variance doing the talking. Clear buy-low on his props tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
COOLING OFFDET @ PIT
Bryan Reynolds: .561 OPS in Last 15 Days
About as shallow a slump as they come, and it's come over a healthy sample — contact just hasn't found grass yet. Backing his props tonight, not fading him.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKLAA @ HOU
Cam Smith: 1.103 OPS in Last 15 Days
Smaller sample on Smith than I'd like, but there's real pop behind it and tonight's total bases number is set at half a base — that's just asking for one hit. I like him to clear it against the Angels.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGESD @ NYM
Jared Young (bats L) hits 5th against Michael King (RHP)
Young's platoon split is about as clean as it gets in his favor against right-handers, and he's hitting fifth tonight right where he can do damage with runners on against King. I like the matchup for him.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKNYY @ BAL
Trent Grisham: .994 OPS in Last 15 Days
A real jump over forty-nine plate appearances on an already-decent .729 season line, and 16 homers on the year says the power was already there. 1.5 total bases lines up well against how he's seeing the ball right now.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMARI @ BOS
Brandon Pfaadt: 0.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
A 0.58 WHIP and 12 strikeouts with zero earned runs across three turns is real weak contact and swings and miss, not stranded runners bailing him out. That's a jump off an already strong 3.11 season ERA — back the form before Boston's price catches up.
P 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
TWO STARTSPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/17
Zack Wheeler
Tuesday against Miami already happened. Sunday he's back home against St. Louis, and a 2.79 xERA keeps him comfortably in the plan-around tier for the back half of the week. Start Sunday — no hesitation.
BULLPENCHW @ CHC
Chicago Cubs pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Webb's the only arm to double up in the last two days, which makes him a clear scratch tonight, and Assad and Civale both carried real pitch counts in their one look. Peterson's the cleanest arm in this pen right now if the Cubs need length behind a shaky start.
TWO STARTSSeattle Mariners — week of 8/17
Bryce Miller
The road start in Milwaukee on Tuesday is history. Sunday he's home against the Cubs, and at 2.83 xERA he sits in that next tier down from the top two — still an arm I want in my lineup. Start him Sunday, same as I'd have started the first one.
UPCOMING GAMESNCAAF
Next college slate · AUG 29
BDL lists 6 verified FBS-vs-FBS games on the next college slate. All 6 kickoff times are confirmed.
STARTER FORMMIA @ PHI
Sandy Alcantara: 0.45 ERA over his last 3 starts
Fifteen strikeouts and a WHIP well below his season mark over 20 innings is a pitcher finding another level, not coasting through soft matchups — and his 3.43 season number was never even a problem. Trust the guy who's actually been on the mound the last few weeks.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
CLOSER WATCHATL @ MIN
Raisel Iglesias
No committee here — Iglesias sits on 25 saves with Suarez a distant second at 4. He's fresh (one outing in the last three, fully rested) and Atlanta's favored on the road over Minnesota. About as clean a save look as this slate offers. Must-play for saves this week. No reason to hedge with Suarez, who profiles as the holds/setup arm behind him, not a save threat.
HEAD-TO-HEADSD @ NYM
Mets are 4-2 vs Padres this season
Six games, 4-2, and the last one finished the exact same score — that's the Mets winning the tight version of this matchup consistently, not overwhelming anybody. I like that habit staying home tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADCHW @ CHC
White Sox are 5-3 vs Cubs this season
5-3 says the Sox have had the better of this one, but the Cubs just grinded out a one-run win last time, which reads more like a good day than a power shift. Tonight at Wrigley, the Sox are defending an edge rather than extending a runaway.
HEAD-TO-HEADARI @ BOS
Red Sox are 2-0 vs Diamondbacks this season
Two games is a thin series to lean on, but the one result that happened was a 9-4 laugher at home. Same building tonight, and Arizona hasn't shown anything yet in this matchup to suggest it looks different.
HEAD-TO-HEADATL @ MIN
Twins are 4-2 vs Braves this season
Thin sample, but the most recent meeting matched the trend, 4-1 — that's holding, not breaking. Minnesota's series to protect at home tonight.
BULLPENTOR @ TB
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Ten arms spread across fifteen innings with nobody over 29 pitches means Toronto's been managing this carefully rather than overworking anyone. Sewald's the cleanest arm in the pen at 18 pitches — he's the name for the highest-leverage spot tonight.
STARTER FORMOAK @ KC
Seth Lugo: 7.47 ERA over his last 3 starts
13 earned runs in under 16 innings is a genuine slide, and the WHIP jump points to a command issue, not bad luck. That's the version of Lugo that Oakland gets tonight.
P 6 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
BATTER VS ARMMIA @ PHI
Bryce Harper vs Sandy Alcantara: .318
Real damage against Alcantara over the years, not just singles, and Harper's swinging one of the hotter bats in the league besides. Recent form and long-term history pointing the same direction is the best case you can build on a hitter.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSSt. Louis Cardinals — week of 8/17
Quinn Mathews
Monday in Cincinnati is already banked. Saturday he's on the road again, this time in Philadelphia, and a 3.08 xERA is strong enough that back-to-back road starts don't move me off him. Stay the course — start him Saturday in Philly.
TWO STARTSChicago Cubs — week of 8/17
Shota Imanaga
Imanaga's White Sox turn Monday is already in the books. Sunday puts him on the road in Seattle in a straight head-to-head with Bryce Miller. 3.81 xERA is the softest number in this whole group, and STREAM_BOTH confirms it, this is not a start-it-and-forget-it arm. Check the matchup Sunday morning, work him like a streamer, not a lock.
REGRESSIONTOR @ TB
Max Scherzer: 6.58 ERA vs 4.69 xERA
A 6.8 K/9 and 1.46 WHIP point to too many walks and not enough swing-and-miss, not just bad luck on balls in play — a 34.8% hard-hit rate says the profile isn't clean enough to hand-wave as pure regression. Some ERA relief is fair if the walks come down, but tonight against Tampa the traffic risk is still real.
P 4 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/17
Kyle Harrison
Harrison already threw Tuesday at home against the Mariners; Sunday's home date with the Braves is what's left on his week. A 3.15 xERA sits toward the back half of this group but still clears the plan-around bar. Hold for Sunday, don't chase him off waivers — 3.15 xERA is usable, not urgent.
STARTER FORMATL @ MIN
Taj Bradley: 6.60 ERA over his last 3 starts
A WHIP pushing 2.00 says walks and hits are piling up together across three real starts, not one blowup game — and that's a drop from an already middling 3.98 season mark. The recent trend is the number to trust tonight, not the season line.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
TWO STARTSChicago White Sox — week of 8/17
Bryan Hudson
Tuesday's crosstown trip to the Cubs is done. Sunday he's home against the Mets, and a 3.15 xERA puts him in the middle of this pack — solid, plan-around, nothing flashy. Start him Sunday and don't overthink it.
BULLPENDET @ PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Doval and Yates are both multi-day arms in the last three days, exactly where Pittsburgh wants the ball late, and Ramírez needed 44 pitches for one inning so he's not bouncing back sharp. Barco's the more likely source of length if Detroit gets into this pen early.
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/17
Braxton Ashcraft
Tuesday at home against Detroit is already in the books. Sunday he's on the road in Los Angeles, and at 3.34 xERA he's tied for the lightest number in the group — plan-around by the label, but the one I'm watching closest. Start him Sunday, but he's my last-confidence call of this set.
BATTER VS ARMMIA @ PHI
Trea Turner vs Sandy Alcantara: .375
A .375 mark against one arm over that many at-bats is often exactly what snaps a hitter out of a rough couple weeks. About as good a matchup as a slumping bat could ask for tonight.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
TWO STARTSPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/17
Cristopher Sánchez
Monday's home date with Miami already happened. Saturday he stays home against St. Louis, and at 3.34 xERA he's tied for the softest number on this list — still plan-around, just the one I'm least excited about. Start him Saturday, just with a little less swagger than the names up top.
BULLPENLAD @ COL
Colorado Rockies pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Agnos, Mushinski, and Herget have all pitched twice in three days with real innings logged each time — the middle of this pen is worn down against a lineup like LA's. Shook's the cleaner length option if Colorado's starter doesn't go deep tonight.
BULLPENARI @ BOS
Boston Red Sox pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Bello and Burgos both threw well beyond a normal relief outing, so Boston's already burned its two long-relief arms in the same three days. If the starter doesn't give length tonight, they're patching it together with short-inning guys instead.
BULLPENMIA @ PHI
Miami Marlins pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Three Miami arms have already gone twice in three days, and none of those outings were short. King's the freshest look on paper, and likely first man up if things get shaky early against Philadelphia.
TOMORROWSTL @ CIN
Michael McGreevy: 3.48 ERA vs 5.47 xERA
A 10.2% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate predict a lot more damage than he's actually allowed — that's sequencing and defense, not something that repeats on command. The shiny ERA is riding on borrowed time against Cincinnati tomorrow.
BULLPENTOR @ TB
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Scholtens and Boyle both threw mini-start pitch counts, so the raw innings total overstates how deep this pen actually is right now. If Tampa's starter doesn't go deep, the back end's thinner than it looks against Toronto.
TOMORROWTOR @ TB
Shane Bieber: 4.99 ERA vs 6.85 xERA
A 47.4% hard-hit rate and 11.5% barrel rate say he's getting hit hard on a regular basis, and the ERA's only holding up because of where those balls have landed. That exit-velocity profile carries real risk of finally showing up on the scoreboard against Tampa tomorrow.
REGRESSIONTOR @ TB
Chandler Simpson: .310 AVG vs .260 xBA
Nearly 500 plate appearances of this gap holding is close to a full season of evidence, not a two-week hot streak due to snap back hard. Lean on him as steady tonight, not as the source of a big offensive night.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
CUT LISTCIN tonight
Michael Toglia
A .501 OPS is barely replacement level, and a .158 average this deep into the year isn't a slump anymore, it's who he is. Batting 6th tells you the lineup around him isn't leaning on him for much, and if a bat that low in the order can't produce, there's no argument left for a season-long roster spot. He's active tonight, so the line will move, but he's owed nothing at these numbers. Cut him. A .501 OPS bat in the bottom third of the order has no path back to relevant, and I'm not waiting on one more game to change my mind.
REGRESSIONDET @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .250 AVG vs .204 xBA
This is basically a half-season sample on Valdez, so it's the real story right now — the balls have found grass more than the contact quality earns. I'd lean toward the cooler version of him showing up tonight against Pittsburgh.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
RETURN WATCHTOR — return listed 8/19
Joe Mantiply
Mantiply's been on Toronto's 60-day IL all year with a knee issue, and the roster now has him listed to return today, 8/19 — so this is the day to check the box score. A 2.04 ERA is the kind of number you don't want sitting on waivers. Stash. Zero days from the listed return and an ERA that low, hold the IL spot and see if he's activated.
BALLPARKOAK @ KC
Seth Lugo's ERA drops to 3.70 at Kauffman Stadium
Kauffman's gaps and foul ground have always favored pitchers who work off soft contact, and that fits Lugo well — a real split built on 75-plus innings at home, not a two-start illusion. Good sign with Oakland the visitor tonight.
P 6 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
REGRESSIONCHW @ CHC
Clay Holmes: 2.56 ERA vs 4 xERA
A 7 K/9 with a 1.07 WHIP is legitimate skill, and a 4.9% barrel rate against 43.7% hard contact says he's avoiding the squared-up stuff even while allowing plenty of medium outs. More believable than a typical hot streak tonight, even if the ERA drifts back toward 4.00 over time.
P 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ TB
Drew Rasmussen
Rasmussen's 2.78 ERA is basically matching his 3.1 xERA, so this isn't smoke and mirrors. A 9.3 K/9 with a 0.91 WHIP means he's missing bats and barely letting anyone on. Home matchup vs. Toronto in the TOR @ TB slate is exactly the plus spot you stream for. STREAM tier that plays like a rostered arm — add him in standard mixed leagues and anything bigger for this start.
CUT LISTKC tonight
Seth Lugo
Lugo's the mild case of the three: 4.59 ERA against a 5.22 xERA is a real gap, but not a five-alarm one. He's underperforming his peripherals a little, not living a lie like the other two names here. Hold — start him on matchups, but this gap alone isn't a cut.
REGRESSIONOAK @ KC
Zack Gelof: .273 AVG vs .230 xBA
The wOBA gap is running even wider than the average gap, which means the extra-base value is outrunning the contact quality by more than the batting average alone suggests. Don't be shocked if the pop shows up quieter than the season-long numbers promise tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REGRESSIONLAD @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .261 AVG vs .218 xBA
Same shape with Moniak, maybe even more pronounced — the power numbers are running way ahead of how well he's actually squaring the ball up. I'd back against the extra-base props in Colorado tonight and let the average follow it down.
P 3-for-5, 7 TB
PLATOON EDGESD @ NYM
Francisco Alvarez (bats R) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
Alvarez is one of those rare righties who actually hits right-handed pitching better, so King doesn't get the usual break batting him sixth tonight. Coming right after Young, that's back-to-back hitters both sitting in their good matchup.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONSD @ NYM
Ty France: .290 AVG vs .250 xBA
This gap's held up across a full season of at-bats, so some of it's real, but a forty-point cushion is still fatter than his power supports. I'd lean on him for a hit tonight against the Mets more than for extra bases.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONCHW @ CHC
Sean Newcomb: 2.52 ERA vs 3.81 xERA
An 8.5 K/9 and 5.5% barrel rate mean hitters aren't squaring him up much — there's some ball-in-play luck in there, but a 1.1 WHIP says he's not living dangerously waiting for it to run out. Skills and results are mostly pointing the same direction tonight.
P 2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
REGRESSIONLAD @ COL
Mookie Betts: .232 AVG vs .274 xBA
Betts' expected average sits more than 40 points above what he's actually hitting, and the wOBA gap is much smaller — the loud contact never left, the hits just aren't falling. That's the kind of slump that turns around fast once a few balls find grass instead of gloves, and Coors is a fine place for that to start tonight.
P 3-for-5, 6 TB
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/20
Robert Garcia
Garcia's shoulder has him on Texas' 60-day IL, with a listed return of 8/20 — one day out. His 3.38 ERA is solid relief work, nothing special. Hold if you already have him stashed; the shoulder and the one-day-out listing make this worth riding out rather than adding cold in shallower leagues.
FANTASY PICKUPSSF @ CLE
Parker Messick
Messick's 2.59 ERA is running a shade hotter than his 3.06 xERA, but a 9 K/9 and 1.03 WHIP say the skill is legit, not just sequencing. Getting SF at home in the SF @ CLE game is a favorable spot to keep the ride going. Same tier as Rasmussen — STREAM. Grab him off the wire in any standard mixed league with a bench spot open.
BALLPARKMIA @ PHI
Aaron Nola owns a 6.23 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 4.54 everywhere else
Citizens Bank Park is doing real damage here, and it's held up across a full season on both sides, not a couple of bad outings. I'd rather back Miami's bats and lean over than lay anything on Nola tonight.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
BULLPENWSH @ TEX
Washington Nationals pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Dion and Williams both went too deep last time out to trust again this soon, and Cruz needed a grind to get through his own recent work — the two arms Washington would lean on for length are both compromised. Kranick, Bird and Cosgrove are the fresh ones, Cosgrove especially, but if the starter doesn't cover the middle innings against Texas, this pen is thin exactly where it needs to be deep.
CUT LISTSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Batting second is the closest thing to a free gift in this game — extra at-bats guaranteed all year — and Cronenworth still isn't turning it into anything. A .613 OPS out of the two-hole is a below-replacement line, and .227 shows it's not just a power outage, the average's broken too. Nothing in this stat line buys him more roster life, tonight's start included. CUT — no debate.
CLOSER WATCHSD @ NYM
Mason Miller
Miller's clear-cut atop this pen, 30 saves to Adam's 2, and San Diego's favored on the road over the Mets so the lead equity is there. Only wrinkle: he threw yesterday, so there's a sliver of back-to-back fatigue risk layered on an otherwise clean spot. Still the best saves asset on this list — start him — but keep an eye on pregame news given the day-after-outing usage. The role isn't in question, just tonight's specific availability.
RUNNING GAMESD @ NYM
San Diego Padres like to run — Luis Torrens (38% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Torrens throws out runners at a real rate, so San Diego testing him tonight is a bad bet — a caught stealing kills a rally before it even starts. I'd expect the Padres to play this one station-to-station instead.
P San Diego Padres stole 0 bases
BALLPARKATL @ MIN
At Target Field, Taj Bradley pitches to a 3.12 ERA
Target Field isn't a haven that inflates every arm's line, so holding hitters this far under his own norm there is him doing the work, not the building. I like him to keep hitters off balance and lean toward the under on his own numbers tonight.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
BALLPARKLAD @ COL
Kyle Freeland owns a 5.49 ERA at Coors Field — 6.96 everywhere else
This flips the usual script — Coors isn't doing him any favors, and he's clearing that test better than his road starts across close to a full season each way. Comfortable backing him at home against the Dodgers tonight.
P 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
CUT LISTMIA tonight
Jakob Marsee
A .207 average out of a leadoff man is ugly, full stop — you want your table-setter getting on base, not making outs to open the game. The OPS tells the same story a different way: .639 isn't a number that survives many roster crunches. Keep him, for now. Best OPS of this group, and the leadoff spot in tonight's lineup means the most at-bats and run chances of anybody here — that volume earns one more week before I pull the plug.
RUNNING GAMESEA @ MIL
Seattle Mariners like to run — William Contreras (39% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Seattle runs on instinct no matter who's catching, so they're going to test William Contreras' arm regardless of what it's done to base stealers around the league. That's the wrong night for it — he throws well enough that I like Milwaukee to win that race and take an out off the board before it ever turns into a run.
P Seattle Mariners stole 1 base
FANTASY PICKUPSSEA @ MIL
Logan Gilbert
Best pure stuff of the four — his 9.4 K/9 tops this group and a 0.99 WHIP keeps the damage contained. His 3.28 ERA sits a half-run better than his 3.68 xERA, so some give-back is likely, but the strikeout foundation is the realest thing on this list. He travels with Seattle for SEA @ MIL. DEEP tier means he's probably already rostered in standard leagues — but if he's sitting free in your deep or AL/NL-only format, that's a mistake to fix today.
RUNNING GAMEWSH @ TEX
Washington Nationals like to run — Elias Diaz (35% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Washington doesn't scale the running game back for a strong arm, so expect multiple stolen-base tries against Elias Diaz tonight, not just one. With that much volume against a catcher who already grades out ahead of average, I like Texas to erase a runner before he ever turns into a run.
P Washington Nationals stole 0 bases
FIRST INNINGCHW @ CHC
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of CHW @ CHC
Both offenses have made the first inning look easy lately, but one of tonight's starters has been about as clean as it gets in the first frame all season. This is the game that snaps the early-scoring run rather than extends it, and a quiet first keeps both pens fresher too.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 8/21
Gavin Stone
Stone is on the Dodgers' 60-day IL with a shoulder issue, listed to return 8/21 — two days away. There's no season line to work with here, so there's nothing on the stat sheet to lean on yet. Speculative stash only in deeper formats. With no performance data attached, I want to see him actually take the mound before trusting a roster spot on him in a shallower league.
CUT LISTCOL tonight
Kyle Freeland
Freeland's the mirror image of the other two: his 6.26 ERA is actually worse than his 5.26 xERA, so if anything he's been a touch snakebit rather than fortunate. Normally that's a hold signal, not a cut signal. But the 'good' number here is still a 5.26 expected ERA, and that's not a number that earns a season-long roster spot in most formats — it's a matchup streamer, nothing more. Cut — even the best-case version of him isn't good enough to roster.
CLOSER WATCHARI @ BOS
Brandyn Garcia / Dennis Santana
Muddiest spot of the four. Garcia leads with just 4 saves and 13 holds, only two saves up on Santana, and it's flagged as a genuine committee. On top of that, Arizona's an underdog on the road at Boston (+134), so there's less chance they're even holding a lead in the ninth. Full rest doesn't help if the lead never shows up. Fade for saves this week. Shaky committee math plus underdog status makes Garcia a bench/watch, not a start — he's a holds streamer for now, not a save target.
REGRESSIONSF @ CLE
San Francisco Giants are 10-21 in one-run games (.323 win%)
A .323 win rate in one-run games is mostly noise that tends to drift back toward .500. Their record probably understates them relative to how tonight's game is priced.
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Brett Bateman
A .283 average that only turns into a .653 OPS is empty average — that's roughly a .370 slugging with no walks mixed in, a pure slap-and-hope bat. Leading off means you're supposed to be a run-scoring engine, and there's no pop or on-base juice here to make that happen. He's in there tonight, so he's got one more shot to matter, but the profile is replacement level in a season-long format. Cut
REGRESSIONMIA @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies are 22-11 in one-run games (.667 win%)
A .667 win rate in one-run games is the kind of number that tends to come back to .500. Their record probably overstates them relative to how tonight's game is priced.
TOMORROWATL @ CHW
Anthony Kay: 4 ERA vs 5.02 xERA
Kay's actual and expected average against are basically identical, a 6-point gap, so his ERA isn't being propped up by balls finding gloves — it's sequencing and damage control doing the work. That's a sturdier skill than what's driving the bigger gaps on this list, and I'd expect it to hold up fine against Atlanta tomorrow.
TOMORROWATL @ CHW
Grant Holmes: 3.82 ERA vs 4.82 xERA
The average-against gap is thin, but a 43% hard-hit rate and 9% barrel rate say the contact he's allowing is harder than a sub-4 ERA usually rides on. That's a thinner, more fragile good number — leaning regression against the White Sox tomorrow.
FIRST INNINGNYY @ BAL
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
New York's drought is real, but tonight's number is pricing the whole first inning, not just their bats, and one of these starters has been distinctly hittable early. Fall behind before three swings again and it's the same hole the Yankees have been climbing out of all stretch.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHBOS — return listed 8/24
Roman Anthony
Anthony's on Boston's 60-day IL with a finger injury, and the roster lists 8/24 as his return — five days out. The season line, a .675 OPS, isn't doing any favors right now. Low-priority stash. That OPS plus five days still on the shelf means this is a deep-league/IL-flexibility play, not a must-hold in standard formats.
BALLPARKSTL @ CIN
At Great American Ball Park, Chase Burns pitches to a 1.98 ERA
That's one of the friendliest yards for hitters in the league, and he's suppressing it anyway with an even deeper home sample than road. All pitcher, no park assist — want him and the under tonight against St. Louis.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
FANTASY PICKUPSCHW @ CHC
Sean Newcomb
The name I trust least here — a 2.52 ERA against a 3.81 xERA is the widest gap in the group, and the underlying marks back up the skepticism: 8.5 K/9 and 1.1 WHIP are both the weakest of the four. The Crosstown spot, CHW @ CHC, is playable, but that ERA reads unsustainable. DEEP-league flier only — speculate if you're desperate for innings, but I'm not chasing this ERA in anything shallower.
CUT LISTDET tonight
Zach McKinstry
Sixth in the order tells you exactly where Detroit has him valued, and .631 OPS / .221 AVG say they've got it right. That's replacement-level production sitting in a lineup spot that isn't even feeding him extra opportunities to work with. There's no angle in this profile — not the average, not the OPS — that argues for holding the spot. CUT.
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 8/25
Tyler Glasnow
Glasnow is on the Dodgers' 60-day IL with a back issue, listed to return 8/25 — six days out. A 2.72 ERA is front-of-rotation production when he's actually on the mound. Stash aggressively if rostered. That ERA is worth an IL spot even with six days still left on the listed return — this is a stretch-run difference-maker if it holds.
CUT LISTSD tonight
Luis Rengifo
Rengifo's the best of this group and it's not close — .65 OPS and .243 AVG both clear the other two names here, even hitting sixth. It's still a soft line that isn't winning anybody a league, but there's real space between 'replaceable' and 'unrosterable,' and right now he's on the right side of it. HOLD, barely — don't cut on this line alone.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/26
Carter Baumler
Baumler is on Texas' 60-day IL with a rib injury, with a listed return of 8/26 — seven days out. His 3.18 ERA is respectable middle-relief production. Speculative stash in deeper leagues; in standard mixed formats I'd rather use the bench spot on someone active until he's closer to that listed date.
FIRST INNINGMIA @ PHI
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Miami's bats aren't the safer side to solve the first inning tonight, and the number sits close to even because one starter's been prone to the long ball early while the other's kept it clean. Fall behind again in the first and it's the same pattern that's dogged the Marlins all stretch.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHTB — return listed 8/28
Jake Fraley
Fraley is on Tampa Bay's 60-day IL with a groin injury, listed to return 8/28 — nine days out. A .690 OPS is below-replacement production even once he's back on the roster listing. Low priority. Nine days out with a weak season line, this is a wire move for deep leagues only, not a bench spot I'm protecting in standard formats.
RETURN WATCHSD — return listed 8/28
Lucas Giolito
Giolito is on San Diego's 15-day IL with an elbow issue, listed to return 8/28 — nine days out. A 5.16 ERA is the ugliest line in this group. Pass. An elbow injury attached to a 5.16 ERA isn't a stash, it's a drop candidate in anything but the deepest leagues.

Graded results

Games

W
Pirates ML -154
MLB · 3-4
L
Padres ML -134
MLB · 2-4
W
Minnesota Twins ML +100
MLB · 4-6
L
Cubs ML -142
MLB · 3-0
W
Diamondbacks ML +146
MLB · 7-6
L
Marlins ML +122
MLB · 1-4
L
Guardians -1.5 -102
MLB · 1-0
W
Blue Jays +1.5 -130
MLB · 6-7
W
Cincinnati Reds ML -138
MLB · 4-5
W
Yankees ML -106
MLB · 5-3
W
Royals ML -174
MLB · 7-9
L
Brewers ML -122
MLB · 7-5
W
Nationals ML +110
MLB · 6-0
L
Angels ML +134
MLB · 2-3
W
Dodgers -1.5 -128
MLB · 6-4

Props

L
Abimelec Ortiz · over
Nationals @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Alec Burleson · over
Cardinals @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Alex Bregman · over
White Sox @ Cubs · Actual 0
L
Andy Pages · over
Dodgers @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Angel Martinez · over
Giants @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Bobby Witt Jr. · over
Athletics @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Brandon Pfaadt · under
Diamondbacks @ Red Sox · Actual 5
W
Brendan Donovan · over
Mariners @ Brewers · Actual 2
L
Brett Sullivan · over
Dodgers @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Bryce Eldridge · over
Giants @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Bryce Harper · over
Marlins @ Phillies · Actual 0
W
Cade Cavalli · over
Nationals @ Rangers · Actual 18
L
Chase Burns · under
Cardinals @ Reds · Actual 2
L
Chris Bassitt · under
Yankees @ Orioles · Actual 6
L
Clay Holmes · over
White Sox @ Cubs · Actual 16
L
Colton Cowser · over
Yankees @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Corey Seager · over
Nationals @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Dane Myers · over
Cardinals @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Dominic Canzone · over
Mariners @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Drake Baldwin · over
Braves @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Elly De La Cruz · over
Cardinals @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Eugenio Suarez · over
Cardinals @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Padres @ Mets · Actual 0
W
Gabriel Moreno · over
Diamondbacks @ Red Sox · Actual 4
L
Griffin Conine · over
Marlins @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Heliot Ramos · under
Yankees @ Orioles · Actual 2
L
Jac Caglianone · over
Athletics @ Royals · Actual 1
L
Jac Caglianone · over
Athletics @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Jackson Chourio · over
Mariners @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Jackson Jobe · under
Tigers @ Pirates · Actual 16
L
Jake Bauers · over
Mariners @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Jake McCarthy · over
Dodgers @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Jeffrey Springs · under
Athletics @ Royals · Actual 17
L
Jonathan Aranda · over
Blue Jays @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Jose Ramirez · over
Giants @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Josh Lowe · over
Angels @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Junior Caminero · over
Blue Jays @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Kazuma Okamoto · over
Blue Jays @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Kumar Rocker · over
Nationals @ Rangers · Actual 2
L
Kyle Freeland · over
Dodgers @ Rockies · Actual 6
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Marlins @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Lawrence Butler · over
Athletics @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Liam Hicks · over
Blue Jays @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Logan Gilbert · over
Mariners @ Brewers · Actual 15
L
Max Scherzer · over
Blue Jays @ Rays · Actual 1
L
Mike Trout · over
Angels @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Nolan Schanuel · over
Angels @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Parker Messick · under
Giants @ Guardians · Actual 10
W
Paul Skenes · over
Tigers @ Pirates · Actual 4
W
Pete Alonso · over
Yankees @ Orioles · Actual 1
L
Randy Arozarena · over
Mariners @ Brewers · Actual 0
W
Robert Stock · under
Padres @ Mets · Actual 13
L
Ryan Vilade · over
Blue Jays @ Rays · Actual 0
W
Sal Stewart · over
Cardinals @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Sandy Alcantara · under
Marlins @ Phillies · Actual 3
L
Sandy Alcantara · over
Marlins @ Phillies · Actual 18
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Dodgers @ Rockies · Actual 0
W
Taj Bradley · over
Braves @ Twins · Actual 3
L
Teoscar Hernandez · over
Dodgers @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Trent Grisham · over
Yankees @ Orioles · Actual 0
W
Walbert Urena · under
Angels @ Astros · Actual 3
L
Zack Gelof · over
Athletics @ Royals · Actual 0