Cardinals at Reds
O/U 8.5 · RL Reds -1.5 · Great American Ball Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Cincinnati Reds ML -138
- Published odds
- -138
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 4-5
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Great American Ball Park hosts another chapter of this National League Central fight, with St. Louis carrying the better recent form and Cincinnati handing the ball to the best starter in the matchup. For me, tonight comes down to Chase Burns being worth trusting without demanding that the Reds cover a run line. Burns is 14-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, including a 1.98 ERA at home. Matthew Liberatore enters at 5-10 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, and his 4.98 road ERA does little to close that gap. The first-inning numbers sharpen it further: Burns owns a 0.78 ERA there, compared with Liberatore’s 6.75.
The handedness does not give the Cardinals an easy escape. Burns has held left-handed hitters to a .213 average and .676 OPS, while right-handed hitters sit at .189 and .500; St. Louis is starting five lefties and four righties. Cincinnati sends six right-handed hitters and two switch-hitters against Liberatore, who has allowed righties a .280 average and .790 OPS. The Reds have also produced a .741 OPS against left-handed pitching, compared with St. Louis’ .695 OPS against right-handers. Cincinnati has been cold, but this is a much friendlier starting-pitcher assignment than the one facing the Cardinals.
St. Louis being 7-3 over its last 10 while Cincinnati is 4-6 is the warning label, as is the Cardinals bullpen’s 1.75 ERA over its last seven games against the Reds’ 6.08. But Gordon Graceffo, George Soriano, Ryne Stanek and Riley O’Brien have all worked on both of the past two game days, while no Cincinnati reliever has done so. My read is that Burns gives Cincinnati the control and length needed to keep that bullpen comparison from deciding the night. I’m taking the moneyline because the edge calls for a Reds victory, not a requirement that they manufacture a two-run cushion.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Chase Burns (RHP)
.990Burleson hitting third against a righty means Burns has to get through the first real power threat in the order with the matchup already tilted against him. If the top two do anything at all, he's the one who turns it into a crooked number.
HEAT CHECK
Alec Burleson: 1.198 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.198That kind of jump over fifty-one plate appearances on top of an already strong .847 season line, with 21 homers backing the pop, is built on real at-bats. Attack that 1.5 total bases number again tonight.
COOLING OFF
Elly De La Cruz: .523 OPS in Last 15 Days
.523De La Cruz has had every chance to snap out of this over the last two weeks and hasn't yet. I'm staying away tonight against St. Louis until the results actually turn.
BALLPARK
At Great American Ball Park, Chase Burns pitches to a 1.98 ERA
1.98That's one of the friendliest yards for hitters in the league, and he's suppressing it anyway with an even deeper home sample than road. All pitcher, no park assist — want him and the under tonight against St. Louis.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Cardinals are 7-4 vs Reds this season
7-4A 3-0 finish last time out was St. Louis controlling it from the mound, not slugging its way past Cincinnati — and 7-4 over eleven games backs that up as a real, pitching-driven edge. That's the kind of thing that travels on the road tonight.
TEAM RECORD
Reds 6-2 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts
6-2Cincinnati's turned Burns's starts into their best nights of the week — bats showing up, pen closing it out, over and over. Good pattern to lean on walking into a division set with St. Louis.
CUT LIST
Michael Toglia
0.501 OPSA .501 OPS is barely replacement level, and a .158 average this deep into the year isn't a slump anymore, it's who he is. Batting 6th tells you the lineup around him isn't leaning on him for much, and if a bat that low in the order can't produce, there's no argument left for a season-long roster spot. He's active tonight, so the line will move, but he's owed nothing at these numbers. Cut him. A .501 OPS bat in the bottom third of the order has no path back to relevant, and I'm not waiting on one more game to change my mind.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored August 19, 2026 at 11:12 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanatics, betmgm, caesars, draftkings, fanduel, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
6- GARY'S PICKCHASE BURNSPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 1.5
I’m getting plus money on Burns allowing no more than one earned run, a result he has delivered in four of his past six starts. He owns a 1.98 ERA at Great American Ball Park and just answered his worst recent outing with seven scoreless innings against Miami.
St. Louis is swinging it well, but its five left-handed starters do not create a clear weakness: Burns has held lefties to a .213 average and righties to .189, with his slider carrying a .200 xwOBA and a 52.1% whiff rate.
The Cardinals’ form is the risk, but Burns’ home dominance makes +120 worth taking.
- GARY'S PICKELLY DE LA CRUZSB OVER 0.5
This price is big enough for me to attack the matchup despite Elly stealing only once in his past 15 games. Matthew Liberatore has allowed 20 successful steals in 25 attempts this season, and Jimmy Crooks has thrown out just one of 12 runners trying to steal.
De La Cruz is also batting leadoff and owns a .333 average with a 1.059 OPS against left-handed pitching, giving him a strong chance to reach base early. Liberatore’s 6.75 first-inning ERA adds to that opportunity.
One walk or single can put this bet in motion, and +228 properly pays me for the recent drought.
- THE LONG SHOTALEC BURLESONHR OVER 0.5
Burleson is the best price on this board. He's a left-handed bat against a right-hander who's actually a lot more hittable against lefties than a 2.47 ERA suggests — Chase Burns has given up 11 home runs to left-handed hitters in 296 at-bats this season and only 2 in 180 at-bats to righties.
Burleson is exactly the pull-power lefty built to sit on that split. He's also doing it right now: 10 hits in his last 28 at-bats with 2 homers and 11 RBI, an OPS over 1.100 in that stretch, and he's hitting .329 with an .990 OPS against right-handed pitching on the year.
He's already 16-for-45 against this Reds staff in this series. Almost 4-to-1 undersells how live he is tonight.
- THE LONG SHOTEUGENIO SUAREZHR OVER 0.5
Suarez has 18 homers and he's heating back up — 4 home runs and an .939 OPS over his last 15 games after a cold June and July. He draws Matthew Liberatore tonight, whose fastball, sinker and changeup are all getting hit for an expected wOBA north of .340, with the sinker batting .404 against on the year. Suarez has actually hit for more thump against lefties than his overall average shows, 4 homers in 72 at-bats against left-handed pitching, and he's got a small ballpark to work with. A hitter trending up against a pitcher who can't keep the ball off barrels right now — that's the matchup I want.
- THE LONG SHOTDANE MYERSHR OVER 0.5
Myers is running hot — two homers in his last seven games, one of them a game-tying shot off a reliever trying to finish a three-inning save Monday. He's also had this Cardinals staff's number all year: .346 with 2 homers in 26 at-bats against St. Louis this season, and he's gone 2-for-3 with a homer off Liberatore specifically in their one prior meeting. His season power total is modest, but a locked-in hitter against a division rival he already torches, facing a lefty who's leaking hard contact all night in a small park, is the kind of spot where the number on the board runs ahead of the real risk.
- THE LONG SHOTSAL STEWARTHR OVER 0.5
Stewart leads this Reds roster with 26 homers and he's coming off a strong week at the plate — 10 hits, a homer, four RBI over his last seven games. His numbers against lefties are actually a tick better than his overall line, .278 with an .872 OPS and 6 homers in 108 at-bats. Liberatore is out there with a 5.07 ERA and the underlying contact numbers to match it — over 41 percent hard-hit allowed. Stewart's the safest power bet on the Reds' side to take advantage of a bad matchup for the pitcher.
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